Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1381

(+) Yeah! (+)

Scheduling notes for when contest retrospectives begin for 2025 (because there are a bunch!):

Game of the Decade 2 - Ongoing!
Villains - Ongoing!
SC2K5 - 7/19
Game of the Decade 1 - 10/20
Games 2015: 11/5

~*creativename's contest site*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analyses*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Main_Page

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Closest Wire-To-Wire Matches*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Closest_Wire-to-Wire_Matches

~*All-Time Guru List*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/All_Time_Guru_Rankings

~*Most Surprising Results*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Most_Surprising_Results

~*Contest Histories*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's extrapolated percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

MetalmindStats posted...

Division 1
(1) Baldurs Gate 3 vs. (16) UFO 50
(8) Tales of Arise vs. (9) Stray
(5) Marvels Spider-Man 2 vs. (12) Trials of Mana
(4) Ghost of Tsushima vs. (13) Shin Megami Tensei V
(3) Animal Crossing: New Horizons vs. (14) Sea of Stars
(6) DOOM Eternal vs. (11) OMORI
(7) Astro Bot vs. (10) Hogwarts Legacy
(2) Metaphor: ReFantazio vs. (15) Tunic

Division 2
(1) Persona 5 Royal vs. (16) Sonic x Shadow Generations
(8) It Takes Two vs. (9) Fire Emblem Engage
(5) Super Mario Bros. Wonder vs. (12) Helldivers 2
(4) Resident Evil 4 vs. (13) Cult of the Lamb
(3) Metroid Dread vs. (14) Inscryption
(6) Yakuza: Like a Dragon vs. (11) Triangle Strategy
(7) Horizon Forbidden West vs. (10) Ori and the Will of the Wisps
(2) Final Fantasy VII Remake vs. (15) Animal Well

Division 3
(1) The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom vs. (16) Half-Life: Alyx
(8) Silent Hill 2 vs. (9) Cyberpunk 2077
(5) Balatro vs. (12) Indiana Jones and the Great Circle
(4) Final Fantasy XVI vs. (13) Psychonauts 2
(3) Genshin Impact vs. (14) Black Myth: Wukong
(6) Final Fantasy VII Rebirth vs. (11) Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart
(7) Vampire Survivors vs. (10) Diablo IV
(2) God of War: Ragnarok vs. (15) Hi-Fi Rush

Division 4
(1) Elden Ring vs. (16) Guilty Gear -Strive-
(8) The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom vs. (9) Stellar Blade
(5) Alan Wake II vs. (12) The Last of Us Part II
(4) Monster Hunter Rise vs. (13) Pikmin 4
(3) Hades vs. (14) Marvel Rivals
(6) Kirby and the Forgotten Land vs. (11) Pokmon Legends: Arceus
(7) Street Fighter 6 vs. (10) Resident Evil Village
(2) Xenoblade Chronicles 3 vs. (15) Armored Core VI: Fires of Rubicon

I wonder how many of these games Clair Obscur would beat...

Lots of weak games in here in general, haha. I think Rise would be much weaker than World (or Wilds).

I think Wonder should have more interesting placement. I'd rather see it up against something like Ragnarok or Xenoblade 3 than RE4, which probably beats it easily. I'd expect RE4 to be a top 8 game here. Also, no Persona 3 Reload? That was an actual remake...

I really hope that Persona 5 Royal isn't in such a contest. Not only is it an enhanced port, but it was released in 2019 in Japan.

It seems like P4G was a Persona 4 proxy so if that's true then it getting ported more probably doesn't matter too much.

I don't think people paid too much attention to the release dates, with P4 being a late decade release, and P4G being an early decade release. I think P5R would play out very similarly. It might matter in a really close match, as it did against Xenoblade, but strength wise, they are probably interchangeable.

Majora's Mask won the first Game of the Decade. Voters don't care about dates; they just vote for their favorite.

That at least did originally release in the year 2000 though I agree with the general idea.

HGSS was 2009 in Japan and a remake so that much didn't matter last time.

It's back to whether or not it's basically the same game again, and I think not allowing OoT 3D and MM 3D should have set a standard but it was pretty clearly Allen going after those two specifically.

I think Persona 5 being a remake might hurt nominations more if anything. It likely doesn't get that high a seed.

how about we just don't let persona 5 royal in

pjbasis posted...

how about we just don't let persona 5 royal in

I don't think any game will get in

A Visual Novel contest would be pretty neat

What would be the strongest visual novel?

And what would be the strongest visual novel that doesn't have any gameplay/how far down the line would it be? Would the top ten all have gameplay?

I think PW1 wins if we count it as a VN and I doubt it's that close

Which reminds me, 13 Sentinels should probably be in that GotD bracket...

I mean fuck it man, let's get a movie contest going.

I mean I pushed for non-video game characters in contests for years!

Leonhart4 posted...

I mean I pushed for non-video game characters in contests for years!

Speaking of, do people still think Batman is the strongest non VG character or is it possible Spider-Man surpasses him?

It took 15 years for people to accept the possibility that Mario 3 could be stronger than Halo, so come back with movies in 2040

Well it's not like Batman's games aren't popular.

Batman had a stronger 90s than Spider-Man so he'd win.

I've always believed in Spider-Man > Batman but I'm probably a minority

Batman would have easily beaten Spider-man back in the day when we were younger. It's more debatable now due to shifting dynamics. GameFAQs doesn't care quite as much about the dark, brooding character aesthetic anymore.

Does any of Spider-Man's game offerings beat the Arkham games? Maybe Marvel vs. Capcom?

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Does any of Spider-Man's game offerings beat the Arkham games? Maybe Marvel vs. Capcom?

The Insomniac Spider-Man game was comparable to Arkham City in GotD2

Marvel's Spider-Man games vs the Arkham games would be a pretty tough call for me.

Goku would probably beat Batman or Spider-Man.

My opinions re others' opinions:

LightningStrikes posted:
-Astro Bot should definitely be a much higher seed given that its probably going to end up as the strongest 2024 game. I think its in contention for a 1 seed honestly.

I deliberately underseeded Astro Bot to give it a potential second-round draw against Metaphor, but not by that much IMO. Having it as a 1-seed at the end of the decade sounds plausible enough to me, though neither Mario Odyssey nor any Sony-published game got there in 2020. However, I tried to seed the top half or so based on how I think it'd shake out right now, and I definitely don't think Astro Bot is up there yet.

...though by that same logic, I think your Remake/Rebirth comparison makes lots of sense in retrospect, just not that Xenoblade 3 should sink for it.

And what you said is really nice, thank you.

MacArrowny posted...

Which reminds me, 13 Sentinels should probably be in that GotD bracket...

I forgot 13 Sentinels was a 2020 release outside Japan, oops. Though by my logic in determining the bottom half, it'd likely have only been a 50/50 inclusion or so.

And I was trying to limit the influx of Atlus JRPGs, but in retrospect should have subbed out Shin Megami Tensei V for Persona 3 Reload.

Re Wonder, I sort of agree with you and originally had similar plans, but I also think you're on the low end of B8 respect for it - that most of us would take it over the likes of Ragnarok and Xenoblade 3 without thinking twice.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I think Persona 5 being a remake might hurt nominations more if anything. It likely doesn't get that high a seed.

Ehh, Golden didn't seem to get hurt in 2020, considering it was a Vita exclusive at the time - whereas Royal's on every contemporary platform that matters here. And I mostly agree with those who think Royal shouldn't be in, fwiw, but that particular cat's already out of the bag.

I'm skeptical of Wonder's strength, personally. That feels like a game that kinda came and went, which is rare for a Mario game.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8031-division-5-final-the-witcher-3-wild-hunt-vs-god-of-war

Like with Mass Effect 3, Witcher 3 beat GoW so badly it felt like it had to be an overperformance of some kind. We just couldn't quite put our finger on what it was. Some sort of Western SFF? Who knows! Either way, Witcher 3 continued to entrench its position as the favorite to make the finals.

Leonhart4 posted...

I'm skeptical of Wonder's strength, personally. That feels like a game that kinda came and went, which is rare for a Mario game.

This site hasn't cared about a 2-D Mario game since 1990.

Leonhart4 posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8031-division-5-final-the-witcher-3-wild-hunt-vs-god-of-war

Like with Mass Effect 3, Witcher 3 beat GoW so badly it felt like it had to be an overperformance of some kind. We just couldn't quite put our finger on what it was. Some sort of Western SFF? Who knows! Either way, Witcher 3 continued to entrench its position as the favorite to make the finals.

I'm a proponent of some wonky western SFF there because otherwise the stats look really weird.

It feels intuitively correct to assume western AAA games attract similar kinds.

TeamRocketElite posted...

Goku would probably beat Batman or Spider-Man.

Yeah, I don't think a single Dragon Ball game comes close to Arkham or Insomniac, but Goku is definitely the one fictional character that would ascend past that.

KamikazePotato posted...

This site hasn't cared about a 2-D Mario game since 1990.

This is true, but I feel like it didn't even have staying power among casuals the way NSMB did. I could be wrong though. It sold 15 million copies, so at the very least, a lot of people played it!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9422-best-of-2023-fall

Wonder doesn't look that bad, but I don't think it's a world beater either. I guess if it nearly doubled Spider-Man 2 it probably beats Ragnarok easily enough.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9423-best-of-2023-game-of-the-year

It just about beat RE4 with TotK in the poll too, so maybe it'd still win that.

We need a new Favorite 2-D Mario Game PotD just to see how Wonder does

My eye twitches every time I see that poll where Star Ocean 2R beat Alan Wake II. I know this site loves JRPGs and is meh on western horror, but that result just feels wrong considering how many accolades the latter got.

Sometimes this site has terrible taste

MacArrowny posted...

It just about beat RE4 with TotK in the poll too, so maybe it'd still win that.

an RE4 remake. I feel like it would be a completely different beast in a contest.

Star Ocean 2R is better than Alan Wake 2.

(I really hate AW2's combat/gameplay)

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1993-jenova-division-round-1-sephiroth-vs-ramirez

Sephiroth opens the contest against one of the many Sephiroth clones he inspired, which is only fitting, I suppose! Seriously though, Ramirez is great and so is Skies of Arcadia. Let's remaster or remake this game already, Sega!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8032-division-6-final-persona-5-vs-portal-2

Once again, B8 had a good read on Persona 5 as the Oracle average was only 0.20% off. Portal 2 actually kept it close out of the gate, but then P5 took control and won comfortably.

Leonhart4 posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1993-jenova-division-round-1-sephiroth-vs-ramirez

Sephiroth opens the contest against one of the many Sephiroth clones he inspired, which is only fitting, I suppose! Seriously though, Ramirez is great and so is Skies of Arcadia. Let's remaster or remake this game already, Sega!

There was some user who was going on and on before the bracket released about how Ramirez was the greatest VG villain of all time, and that Sephiroth wasn't even fit to shine his shoes, etc. etc. When the bracket eventually came out and this was a R1 match, I think everyone took it as a gift to that user.

I recall that now that you say it

In retrospect, I kind of wish Galcian would have been the villains rep and Ramirez would be Vyse's rival, as Skies of Arcadia's villains hierarchy would suggest, but I suppose it doesn't really matter because as it certainly wouldn't change of the results by much.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

In retrospect, I kind of wish Galcian would have been the villains rep and Ramirez would be Vyse's rival, as Skies of Arcadia's villains hierarchy would suggest, but I suppose it doesn't really matter because as it certainly wouldn't change of the results by much.

Yeah, I don't think flipping them around would matter too much. Ramirez was more popular than Galcian, so he got into Villains. However, the rivalry was really between Vyse and Galcian, so it makes sense for that one to get into Rivals.