Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1380

(+) Yeah! (+)

Yeah, I feel confident saying DQXI is the strongest game in the series

Would anyone be interested in seeing a 64-entrant Game of the Half-Decade (2020-2024) mock bracket?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1991-mushroom-division-round-1-revolver-ocelot-vs-nemesis

We'll talk about this in more detail during the SC2K5 retrospective, but early in 2005, I ran the initial Nomination Rally Tournament with the goal of finding five worthy characters who hadn't made a contest yet to try to inject some new blood and interesting entrants.

I called it a tournament, but since it was the first one, it was honestly kinda impromptu. I didn't have a bracket or do nominations. I came up with the characters myself and did it in a gauntlet style. I didn't put much thought into it at the beginning because I honestly didn't expect it to take off the way it eventually did. It was mostly done for fun, and I thought only the Stats Topic would latch onto it, if anything.

I mention that now because Revolver Ocelot was one of the winners, but I ran that contest before we knew there would be a Villains Contest. It kinda threw a wrench into things since he certainly didn't need the help getting into this one, especially fresh off of Metal Gear Solid 3. It ended up working out either way since he made SC2K5, too, but more on that when the time comes.

The point is that we had high expectations for Ocelot. The Oracle average against Nemesis was a doubling. He started off over 60%, but like with Sigma/Andross the day before, the percentage gradually whittled down to the mid-50s, leaving most of us confused.

Ocelot had been the heavy favorite to beat Dr. Wily next round, but now the door had been opened for the upset. It also sorta raised expectations for Wesker and a potential upset of Kefka because there was no way he could be weaker than Nemesis...right?

MetalmindStats posted...

Would anyone be interested in seeing a 64-entrant Game of the Half-Decade (2020-2024) mock bracket?

Yes.

MetalmindStats posted...

Would anyone be interested in seeing a 64-entrant Game of the Half-Decade (2020-2024) mock bracket?

We want the damn bracket!

Those are always fun!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8028-division-2-final-mass-effect-2-vs-resident-evil-2

It was a bumpy ride, but Mass Effect 2 managed to win the division like it was expected to do. Some people thought the time off killed RE2's momentum and bandwagon power, but there's no way to know for sure.

Mass Effect 2 had enough respect votes in GotD to pull it through. I don't think RE2 would have gotten any bandwagon or anything either way, it was the favorite to get to this point, it was just closer to losing the previous round than we thought.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8029-division-3-final-super-smash-bros-ultimate-vs-super-mario

By the time this match rolled around, Odyssey had picked up several believers who thought it would win. However, Ultimate took control early and won without much trouble.

So the real question is why Ultimate won. Was it rSFF? Or did we simply overestimate Odyssey's opponents and/or underestimate Ultimate's opponents? I tend to think it's the latter, but either way, it's hard to overturn the hierarchy and it held strong on this day.

The hierarchy is indeed hard to overturn.

64 > Smash
Melee > Sunshine
Galaxy > Brawl
3D World > Smash 4 (...probably?)
Ultimate > Odyssey

Am I wrong with any of those?

Which hierarchy? Wouldn't Mario 3/World/64 beat all the Smash games?

Brawl and Smash 4 would win those matches when they were the most recent entry, which is what matters for the purposes of contest hierarchies because they aren't making contests when they're not

I'm not entirely sure they lose them now, but there's no way to know

MacArrowny posted...

Which hierarchy? Wouldn't Mario 3/World/64 beat all the Smash games?

Eh, I'm talking about within a console generation primarily. Once Smash took control with Melee and Mario crapped the bed with Sunshine, the switch was flipped. Post-64 might as well be a different series because Mario will never be that again.

Leonhart4 posted...

Brawl and Smash 4 would win those matches when they were the most recent entry, which is what matters for the purposes of contest hierarchies because they aren't making contests when they're not

I'm not entirely sure they lose them now, but there's no way to know

Yeah, painful as it is to say, both Smash games win those in the moment. I'd probably wager on both flipping that today but I'd feel more comfortable taking Galaxy.

Seanchan posted...

64 > Smash
Melee > Sunshine
Galaxy > Brawl
3D World > Smash 4 (...probably?)
Ultimate > Odyssey

I think Smash 4 wins that matchup fairly easily. While getting overshadowed by Ultimate hurt a lot, 3D World still isn't quite in the same league as it or most of those games.

Leonhart4 posted...

Post-64 might as well be a different series because Mario will never be that again.

Mario lacks the consistency it perhaps once had, but Galaxy, Galaxy 2, and Odyssey are still juggernauts. Well maybe less so Galaxy 2 since it lives in the first game's shadow.

Smash 4 would be so weak in a new contest (relatively speaking). It wasn't even very strong when it was recent, and while people have some Brawl nostalgia for various reasons, there's almost zero for Smash 4.

OrangeCrush980 posted...

Mario lacks the consistency it perhaps once had, but Galaxy, Galaxy 2, and Odyssey are still juggernauts.

They're juggernauts in terms of reception and sales, but both Galaxy games in particular have been contest underachievers. I think Odyssey is a cut above them but it was still a step below Ultimate.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I honestly wonder if Smash 4 could beat Brawl.

It would not

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4962-best-of-2012-game-of-the-generation-2006-2012
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4841-what-is-your-favorite-wii-exlcusive-game

Two polls where Galaxy failed to impress. All three Marios combined lose to Skyward Sword in the second...

I would absolutely take Brawl over Smash 4. Smash 4 would have won when it was recent and the 'objectively' better entry, but now that Ultimate stole its thunder, way less people will care that Smash 4 has a bigger roster than Brawl. Meanwhile Brawl has GameFAQs formative years nostalgia,, Subspace Emissary, the DOJO.

Both Galaxy games combined couldn't beat Skyward friggin' Sword yikes

Leonhart4 posted...

Both Galaxy games combined couldn't beat Skyward friggin' Sword yikes

Jesus Christ, this website sometimes...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3475-division-8-round-1-cod-4-pokemon-dp-s-mario-g-tf2
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3492-division-8-round-2-ssbb-gta4-cod-4-s-mario-g

These poll results will have changed dramatically since then, but fresh reminder of how abysmal Galaxy was in its first contest.

It's also worth mentioning Galaxy couldn't even get 60% on Pokmon R/S/E or 38% on TP in GotD, and it got 60/40'd by Super Metroid in 2015.

KamikazePotato posted...

I would absolutely take Brawl over Smash 4. Smash 4 would have won when it was recent and the 'objectively' better entry, but now that Ultimate stole its thunder, way less people will care that Smash 4 has a bigger roster than Brawl. Meanwhile Brawl has GameFAQs formative years nostalgia,, Subspace Emissary, the DOJO.

Yeah, I think Sm4sh has just been completely replaced by Ultimate in every single possible way. 64 is the original (and quite possibly the biggest snub in all of contest history), Melee will always have lasting power with the competitive scene and being the GameCube's first big exclusive, Brawl has the massive hype with the Dojo and Subspace being the best single player experience of the series, and Ultimate being...the ultimate version.

Sm4sh has...a handheld and a console version, I guess?

Yeah, Smash 64's probably the strongest snub by a lot.

What would the likely runner-ups even be?
Final Fantasy V?
Resident Evil 3: Nemesis?
Super Mario Bros. 2?

LightningStrikes posted...

Yes.

swirIdude posted...

We want the damn bracket!

ctesjbuvf posted...

Those are always fun!

As you wish...

Division 1
(1) Baldurs Gate 3 vs. (16) UFO 50
(8) Tales of Arise vs. (9) Stray
(5) Marvels Spider-Man 2 vs. (12) Trials of Mana
(4) Ghost of Tsushima vs. (13) Shin Megami Tensei V
(3) Animal Crossing: New Horizons vs. (14) Sea of Stars
(6) DOOM Eternal vs. (11) OMORI
(7) Astro Bot vs. (10) Hogwarts Legacy
(2) Metaphor: ReFantazio vs. (15) Tunic

Division 2
(1) Persona 5 Royal vs. (16) Sonic x Shadow Generations
(8) It Takes Two vs. (9) Fire Emblem Engage
(5) Super Mario Bros. Wonder vs. (12) Helldivers 2
(4) Resident Evil 4 vs. (13) Cult of the Lamb
(3) Metroid Dread vs. (14) Inscryption
(6) Yakuza: Like a Dragon vs. (11) Triangle Strategy
(7) Horizon Forbidden West vs. (10) Ori and the Will of the Wisps
(2) Final Fantasy VII Remake vs. (15) Animal Well

Division 3
(1) The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom vs. (16) Half-Life: Alyx
(8) Silent Hill 2 vs. (9) Cyberpunk 2077
(5) Balatro vs. (12) Indiana Jones and the Great Circle
(4) Final Fantasy XVI vs. (13) Psychonauts 2
(3) Genshin Impact vs. (14) Black Myth: Wukong
(6) Final Fantasy VII Rebirth vs. (11) Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart
(7) Vampire Survivors vs. (10) Diablo IV
(2) God of War: Ragnarok vs. (15) Hi-Fi Rush

Division 4
(1) Elden Ring vs. (16) Guilty Gear -Strive-
(8) The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom vs. (9) Stellar Blade
(5) Alan Wake II vs. (12) The Last of Us Part II
(4) Monster Hunter Rise vs. (13) Pikmin 4
(3) Hades vs. (14) Marvel Rivals
(6) Kirby and the Forgotten Land vs. (11) Pokmon Legends: Arceus
(7) Street Fighter 6 vs. (10) Resident Evil Village
(2) Xenoblade Chronicles 3 vs. (15) Armored Core VI: Fires of Rubicon

Prioritized near-guaranteed inclusions for about the top half of the bracket, and then games that could create interesting matches to comprise nearly its bottom half. Nine Sols eventually became the very last cut.

There were, I felt, a great many games I had to snub in the process - albeit mostly almost surefire fodder, admittedly. Bayonetta 3, Dead Space, Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth, NEO: The World Ends with You, and Octopath Traveler II are a few examples that I hope hint at my process for whittling down the bottom slightly-less-than-half.

The original Smash technically wasn't a snub...! It made the 2009 Games bracket and was bafflingly replaced by SoulCalibur.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1992-mushroom-division-round-1-dr-wily-vs-ultros

Ultros got an early board vote push, but Wily quickly pushed out to the mid-60s and camped there the rest of the match. After this showing, the match against Ocelot next round felt like a tossup.

MetalmindStats posted...

As you wish...

Division 1
(1) Baldurs Gate 3 vs. (16) UFO 50
(8) Tales of Arise vs. (9) Stray
(5) Marvels Spider-Man 2 vs. (12) Trials of Mana
(4) Ghost of Tsushima vs. (13) Shin Megami Tensei V
(3) Animal Crossing: New Horizons vs. (14) Sea of Stars
(6) DOOM Eternal vs. (11) OMORI
(7) Astro Bot vs. (10) Hogwarts Legacy
(2) Metaphor: ReFantazio vs. (15) Tunic

Division 2
(1) Persona 5 Royal vs. (16) Sonic x Shadow Generations
(8) It Takes Two vs. (9) Fire Emblem Engage
(5) Super Mario Bros. Wonder vs. (12) Helldivers 2
(4) Resident Evil 4 vs. (13) Cult of the Lamb
(3) Metroid Dread vs. (14) Inscryption
(6) Yakuza: Like a Dragon vs. (11) Triangle Strategy
(7) Horizon Forbidden West vs. (10) Ori and the Will of the Wisps
(2) Final Fantasy VII Remake vs. (15) Animal Well

Division 3
(1) The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom vs. (16) Half-Life: Alyx
(8) Silent Hill 2 vs. (9) Cyberpunk 2077
(5) Balatro vs. (12) Indiana Jones and the Great Circle
(4) Final Fantasy XVI vs. (13) Psychonauts 2
(3) Genshin Impact vs. (14) Black Myth: Wukong
(6) Final Fantasy VII Rebirth vs. (11) Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart
(7) Vampire Survivors vs. (10) Diablo IV
(2) God of War: Ragnarok vs. (15) Hi-Fi Rush

Division 4
(1) Elden Ring vs. (16) Guilty Gear -Strive-
(8) The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom vs. (9) Stellar Blade
(5) Alan Wake II vs. (12) The Last of Us Part II
(4) Monster Hunter Rise vs. (13) Pikmin 4
(3) Hades vs. (14) Marvel Rivals
(6) Kirby and the Forgotten Land vs. (11) Pokmon Legends: Arceus
(7) Street Fighter 6 vs. (10) Resident Evil Village
(2) Xenoblade Chronicles 3 vs. (15) Armored Core VI: Fires of Rubicon

Prioritized near-guaranteed inclusions for about the top half of the bracket, and then games that could create interesting matches to comprise nearly its bottom half. Nine Sols eventually became the very last cut.

There were, I felt, a great many games I had to snub in the process - albeit mostly almost surefire fodder, admittedly. Bayonetta 3, Dead Space, Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth, NEO: The World Ends with You, and Octopath Traveler II are a few examples that I hope hint at my process for whittling down the bottom slightly-less-than-half.

Great job! Some fun matches in there. Just a few notes:

-Astro Bot should definitely be a much higher seed given that its probably going to end up as the strongest 2024 game. I think its in contention for a 1 seed honestly.

-Rebirth and Xenoblade Chronicles 3 should probably swap places as likely Remake and Rebirth are in a RDR/RDR2 situation relative to each other.

-I feel like Alan Wake II probably ends up a little higher as it will get more popular over time.

This is all just my opinion though and I think its a great job overall, well done!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8030-division-4-final-persona-4-golden-vs-xenoblade-chronicles

Xenoblade was expected to win this one fairly easily, with an Oracle average over 55% here. Right out of the gate, that looked good, as it jumped out to a lead of nearly 300 votes quickly. However, then it just stalled out. It couldn't gain any ground from there, but P4G didn't make any runs either.

However, with two hours left, Golden finally made a move. With an hour left, the lead was down to 80. Xenoblade held its ground from there and held on for a narrow victory. This was another instance where the registered user double bonus changed the outcome. Without that, P4G wins by a mere 8 votes.

I stand firm that this was P4G not only rallied a bit but also bandwagoned. It's run is exactly what causes such and I don't believe that many games in the division is that even otherwise. Plus RDR vs. RDR2 looks off otherwise.

Great match though, happy Xenoblade managed a top 8 spot!

ctesjbuvf posted...

Plus RDR vs. RDR2 looks off otherwise.

what does it look like?

RDR2 finished ahead by a decent bit, but RDR1 is also potentially behind two layers of SFF between Smash/Xenoblade and BotW/Smash

Well to be fair, it's a little tough to grasp fully because Smash Ultimate ends up getting crushed by BotW only managing a bit more than 30%. RDR is below that in the bracket. I think if you adjust for that they look roughly equal and they shouldn't. RDR being above GTAV I already had a hard time believing and I think it shows P4G improved a bit already then.

A Vita port beating some of the most criticically acclaimed games of the decade is also like the recipe for a bandwagon. Xenoblade beating Three Houses is like "oh I had the wrong Nintendo game winning there, but hardly the same result".

RDR2 also benefits from Witcher 3 rallying in the final against BotW. The entire lower half of the bracket is overrated relative to the upper half.

ctesjbuvf posted...

A Vita port

I see that Golden was released for PC in the middle of 2020, did that overlap with this contest?

Actually I guess you're doing these as an anniversary so it probably ends about now

Which is just another argument in favor of what I'm saying. Unadjusted RDR gets ~42% in a direct matchup. I honestly don't think that's too far of what it should get (without considering the direct matchup shenanigans), but the bracket ends up heavily favoring RDR2.

Though Xenoblade vs. Ultimate is also a bit of a wildcard. Ultimate might SFF, but at that point Xenoblade being in top 8 might boost it a little bit.

It came out about a month after the contest ended

pjbasis posted...

I see that Golden was released for PC in the middle of 2020, did that overlap with this contest?

Actually I guess you're doing these as an anniversary so it probably ends about now

That came after the contest, and was not announced before the contest was over.

Yeah, it was an out of nowhere announcement and then almost immediate release afterwards. Nobody saw it coming.

I do wonder how Persona 4 would do now because of the Steam port.

Leonhart4 posted...

Yeah, it was an out of nowhere announcement and then almost immediate release afterwards. Nobody saw it coming.

I do wonder how Persona 4 would do now because of the Steam port.

honestly I think it would probably do about the same even though theyve ported it all over

do think if they remake it, on the other hand

I don't think PC ports move the needle much on GameFAQs. We primarily love consoles here.

KamikazePotato posted...

I don't think PC ports move the needle much on GameFAQs. We primarily love consoles here.

Dunno about that anymore!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9790-best-of-2024-platform-of-the-year

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9796-which-systems-lineup-for-this-year-are-you-most-excited

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9790-best-of-2024-platform-of-the-year

PC is definitely the main non-Nintendo platform now. Also as far as Golden itself goes that specific version would definitely have been far more played on PC overall. Having said that, the Golden part was always a fraud and people were just voting for Persona 4 itself!

Golden also got ported to PS4 and Switch after the PC port, so it's not just a PC thing.