Current Events > NYT poll: Trump behind in 5 out of 7 swing states, losing semi-late deciders...

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/03/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll.html

The presidential race appears to be hurtling toward a photo finish, with the final set of polls by The New York Times and Siena College finding Vice President Kamala Harris showing new strength in North Carolina and Georgia as former President Donald J. Trump erases her lead in Pennsylvania and maintains his advantage in Arizona.

It has been decades since the polls have shown the nation facing a presidential race that is so close across so many states in both the Sun Belt and the Rust Belt. The tightly contested landscape means the race remains highly uncertain as the campaign enters its final hours.

Ms. Harris is now narrowly ahead in Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, the polls show, while Mr. Trump leads in Arizona. The polls show them locked in close races in Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania. But the results in all seven states are within the margin of sampling error, meaning neither candidate has a definitive lead in any of them.

Both candidates have multiple pathways available to capture the 270 Electoral College votes required to claim victory, assuming that polls are not dramatically underestimating the support for one or the other. In such a close race, even a small systemic polling error could tip the contest decisively in either direction.

But there are signs that late deciders are breaking for Ms. Harris: Among the 8 percent of voters who said they had only recently decided on their vote, she wins the group by 55 percent to 44 percent. (With Election Day nearing, 11 percent of voters remained undecided or persuadable, down from 16 percent about a month ago.)

The polling comes as more than 70 million Americans have already voted, according to the University of Florida Election Lab.

Roughly 40 percent of those surveyed by the Times/Siena poll across the seven states said they had voted. Ms. Harris wins those voters by a margin of eight percentage points, the polls found. Mr. Trump has an edge among voters who say they are highly likely to vote but have not yet cast a ballot.

Mr. Trump has been gaining ground in Pennsylvania, where Ms. Harris had a four-percentage-point edge in all previous New York Times/Siena College polls in the state since she entered the race. The race is now tied, indicating an increasingly competitive contest in the state, which strategists in both campaigns believe could tip the election.

The only state where the poll found Mr. Trump winning with people who said they had already voted was Arizona. Forty-six percent of voters there said they had already voted, and Mr. Trump wins that group, 50 percent to 46 percent.

The polls also reveal a shift in the issues being prioritized by voters in the final stretch of the race. The economy still remains their top concern, but in states like Wisconsin, where Ms. Harris has held a consistent edge, abortion now nearly matches the economy as voters most important issue. And in Arizona, where Mr. Trump leads, immigration also continues to rise as a crucial issue driving voters choices.

The survey shows that Mr. Trump has continued to hold on to the core of the coalition that supported him in his past two presidential bids white voters who did not attend college, and men while expanding his support among younger, nonwhite and newer voters. He is exceeding his 2020 vote share in Arizona and Michigan, both states he did not win four years ago.

Ms. Harris is underperforming relative to President Bidens performance in 2020 with younger voters, Black voters, particularly Black women, and Latino voters. But she has improved on his numbers with these groups since he dropped out of the race in July.

The gender gap remains wide across all seven states, with Ms. Harris the favorite of women and Mr. Trump preferred by men. For women and younger voters, abortion now surpasses the economy as the most important issue driving votes.

I dunno how he can fix this...

Diceheist posted...

I dunno how he can fix this...

Upset about that, are we?

it is joever

2 time loser Donnie. Sad!

Failed casino owner Donnie showin us how it's done.

Whoever wins, the polling industry is going to meltdown again.

Three time popular vote and two time electoral vote losing twice impeached broke obese rapist fraud wannabe dictator Donald J Trump

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/e/ee2b93ac.jpg

Diceheist posted...

I dunno how he can fix this...

I hope they never learn how to fix this

Forever

Looks like polls were wrong.

BlueTigerLion posted...

Looks like polls were wrong.

It's odd since prior to the last week NYT had Trump winning nearly everything and would've got solid bragging rights if that trend continued.

But yeah Trump always overperforms his polls.

BlueTigerLion posted...

Looks like polls were wrong.

Yeah they frequently are. Why though? Didn't most of them have Harris winning?

GranTurismo posted...

Yeah they frequently are. Why though? Didn't most of them have Harris winning?

Maybe the people who flipped the election werent represented in the polls.