Board 8 > Community Mafia Topic 11 - Ancient B8 Mafia History (2009-2011)

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Page List: 1 ... 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
ctesjbuvf
05/09/24 8:11:30 AM
#401:


I have reread a bunch, wall coming up when I have sorted the notes a bit.

htaeD posted...
Mzero needs to target Ben or FD I guess

Why

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MZero
05/09/24 8:12:29 AM
#402:


htaeD posted...
Mzero needs to target Ben or FD I guess

hey both targeted me last night on their own!

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MZero
05/09/24 8:13:24 AM
#403:


I mean I could target FD if we really want to prove I'm taunter cause his ability is useless afaik but that seems like a waste

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TotallyNotMI
05/09/24 8:14:18 AM
#404:


I don't feel a need for you to confirm yourself. Try to hit scum.

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ctesjbuvf
05/09/24 8:14:19 AM
#405:


That and also given opening post priority list, the neighborizer ability cannot be taunted as it acts before.

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ctesjbuvf
05/09/24 8:14:29 AM
#406:


What MI said

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htaeD
05/09/24 8:15:49 AM
#407:


Oh yeah that makes more sense
I just thought out loud that if we wanted to prove Mzero, he should not target one of the claimed townpowers that have to prove their own thing tonight (Blade, Ulti, Kirby)

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ctesjbuvf
05/09/24 8:37:20 AM
#408:


Man my notes turned into a darn novel, I'm sorry.

Anyway, looking at a small PoE of vanillas duking it out I must admit my brain is getting more and more convinced it's Ulti with Lopens role (+ Death probably) and just one of these other vanillas most likely. Early day we talked about it and I said the right move was looking into Ulti day 1 and compared, now I investigated that a bit further...

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ctesjbuvf
05/09/24 8:37:53 AM
#409:


I went back and checked Ulti for hints day 1. Day 1 Ulti tries to direct scum to him mostly, or you know, says the "scum should totally block and kill me" lines. Day 2 he comes in and is immediately clear about being cop (or similar) calling protection to him instead of scum and calling me confirmed lock town. Ulti does say well after Lopen's death that he can just scan Wall himself after we will Knightz, this is the first time, well into day 1. Does he really shut up about it that long when it is so unprovoked at that point? After this point he also does a few other bluffs, never as forthcoming as day 2.

That could mean they didn't get the flip until after day 1, not too unlikely regardless imo, or at the very least hadn't planned as well. If he's cop all along, the shift to being clearer about being some sort of investigation between days is a bit weird, it's not like I had been entertained as a lynch ever before. For what it's worth, it also reads like someone who has absolutely no strongman fear, which would be bold as town.

The scan on me? Sure, I can see it. He has a brief interaction with Death day 1, mentions him never day 2, sure I can see it. The SBell scan is very sus though. He calls SBell lock town several times day 1. Calls it a soul read. On day 3 SBell is not included in the "widest PoE I can possibly make" (Topic 8 #221) which includes seven people and four if Ulti removes people he thinks are super town. That SBell "scan" really looks like not wanting to give more info. I really can't see town cop Ulti scanning SBell there ever and it's probably what fueled by interest in investigating this the most, along with looking at this Peaf/Red/MI show and thinking it doesn't look like a place where we have more than one scum.

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PeaceFrog
05/09/24 8:38:11 AM
#410:


It would also depend on how the powers receive their results - is it a whole "your action was successful" or "[Name] was [actioned]".

Either way i agree with mi. Taunter should try to be used like a weird bg.

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ctesjbuvf
05/09/24 8:38:26 AM
#411:


Then what else now that I reread Ulti?

Well, he did push Knightz a lot, but also voted a ton in general and it really sounds like he tries an angle of maybe it's really a town vanilla as it gains tractions, he comes with other ideas and also suggests Knightz being scanned, but can't quite spin it right initially. He's a lot more forceful about the lynch earlier in the day at times but nearing the end 8 hours he tries to spin the idea of Knightz being town and the lynch feeling wrong. Even with less than 1,5 he makes a pretty strong attempt at lynching MI. When Kirby makes the Knightz vote that convinced me Kirby was town because it more or less seals it, Ulti still tries to convince Kirby on MI right away. What eventually with 15 minutes to go makes Ulti switch to Knightz is seemingly Kirby saying he dayscanned him which then yields a bunch of reactions from people being surprised he believes it. On day 2 and onwards he is also very insistent on never wanting to let Knightz live and being the day 1 hero, but if he's town, he did definitely risked him living full time, solid effort, though he ended the right place. Corrik's analysis concluded that the voters that looks the worst eod1 is Ulti, Death, Peaf and SBell, I don't disagree.

Ulti is back and fourth on Wallz a couple of times too and similarly though not to same extend suggests alternatives. Chang takes over this day compeltely so it's not like he could push alternatives anyway.

The issue pursuing this currently other than my own lack of vote of course is if Ulti is actually town cop, so even if you agree with me that there's a solid chance of Ulti playing with Lopen's role, it's probably not today you go after it. It'll be hard for Ulti to keep up with logical scans and being alive in general. Even so I want to say now that I fear we aren't winning by just lynching vanilla after vanilla if it's Ulti and Death while Ulti "scans" the power roles and Death suggested. Death fits into this well, they interacted little and it's pretty typical scum scanner strategy to pick a town and then a scummate, Death is the godfather as you would pick the teammate where you can't be caught lying. Also Death had another moment today where he looked super scum to me unrelated to Ulti.

So if you think this sounds possible, which vanilla would then be most likely to be on this team? Short answer is... not MI at least. Ulti is actually calls Peaf town and keeps him out of the PoE just as unexplained as Wallz, both on day 1 and 2, although he similarly also has Red in a good vibes list once. He says Red should be scanned, interestingly. Given the lynch attempt on MI, I'd say it's likelier Peaf or Red are on the team if Ulti is scum. Both Peaf and Red are included in the "widest PoE I can possibly make" list but are removed when Ulti reduces the PoE. Ulti says on day 3 (Topic 9 #15) that Peaf pinged him day 1 and would be dead as grass if he had a dayvig gun. If true he never brought that up, on the contrary had Peaf as town day 1. This is very shortly he just said with the aforementioned list that he seems super town as well. This is weird regardless of alignment.

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ctesjbuvf
05/09/24 8:39:25 AM
#412:


That is a lot to say probably don't pursue it today, but I wanted to get all these thoughts out now, you never know how long you live.

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TotallyNotMI
05/09/24 8:52:16 AM
#413:


I like those thoughts, ctes. And it's a theory I've been trying to wrap my head around too.

If Ulti is scum using Lopen's role, I feel like Death is the godfather and red is the third scum. UIti voting me for pushing red because he wants to scan him tonight pinged me hard. Scum Red days would be limited here, so they could be planning a powerplay where Ulti turns him in to buy himself more town points.

It's a wild theory, but a theory that I've been playing around with. My gut still thinks we're 4 + 1, but if we're 5, that's the team that makes sense in my mind.

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PeaceFrog
05/09/24 8:53:19 AM
#414:


ctesjbuvf posted...
it's pretty typical scum scanner strategy to pick a town and then a scummate
Death has won as scum with this strategy before. Xenoblade.

ctesjbuvf posted...
So if you think this sounds possible, which vanilla would then be most likely to be on this team? Short answer is... not MI at least. Ulti is actually calls Peaf town and keeps him out of the PoE just as unexplained as Wallz, both on day 1 and 2, although he similarly also has Red in a good vibes list once. He says Red should be scanned, interestingly. Given the lynch attempt on MI, I'd say it's likelier Peaf or Red are on the team if Ulti is scum.
I don't think i follow your line of thought here, but the other points you make about Ulti and his scan targets are appreciated. I think i supported the sbell scan when he announced it since i had suspicions on sbell overnight.

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PeaceFrog
05/09/24 8:54:39 AM
#415:


To state the obvious really quick - if Ulti stole lopen's role then Death wouldn't need to be gf for Ulti to fake a scan on him.

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ctesjbuvf
05/09/24 8:57:12 AM
#416:


That bolded part because Ulti swung hard at the MI train end of day 1.

PeaceFrog posted...
I think i supported the sbell scan when he announced it

Well at that point SBell was dead.

Anyway, suspecting SBell is one thing, but Ulti pretty clearly indicated day 1 and day 3 he didn't do that whatsoever, while the game as a whole also showed no general interest in SBell. Blade is right he was towncleared by a handful of people. I was not personally among them.

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ctesjbuvf
05/09/24 8:58:30 AM
#417:


PeaceFrog posted...
To state the obvious really quick - if Ulti stole lopen's role then Death wouldn't need to be gf for Ulti to fake a scan on him.

Wouldn't need to no, but I stand by that you're more likely to "clear" the scummember that wouldn't have you killed should they somehow die. Death can of course also still be town in that case.

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TotallyNotMI
05/09/24 8:59:12 AM
#418:


PeaceFrog posted...
To state the obvious really quick - if Ulti stole lopen's role then Death wouldn't need to be gf for Ulti to fake a scan on him.
This is true but I do think that, if Ulti stole Lopen's role and if scum has a Godfather, Ulti would want to claim he scanned the Godfather to help keep them clear of suspicions for a few days.

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htaeD
05/09/24 9:01:57 AM
#419:


I did wonder why Ulti was so slow in scanning Red when he kept saying he was so faithful in Reds lategame abilities.

Also he honestly was pretty lucky we got the roleblocker day1 if he is town.

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htaeD
05/09/24 9:03:39 AM
#420:


Peaf I expect you ro remember that Xenoblade mafia was a VERY unique set of circumstances for me.

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PeaceFrog
05/09/24 9:06:41 AM
#421:


Oh i see, i totally forgot about Ulti being on the mi lynch at the end of the day.

Hmm.

I could see a scum Ulti wanting to bus basically everyone on his team, but you're right that he pushed mi more than wallz and he went back and forth on Knightz.

Final D1 Votals
[8] Knightz - (Taco/Mzero), (Taco/Mzero), (Ulti), (Ulti), Taco/Mzero, Wallz, (Ulti), Isquen, FD, (IGCD), Kirby, (IGCD), MI, (IGCD), Ulti, Death, (IGCD)
[3] MI - (IGCD), (Knightz), Red, (Ulti), Peaf, Chang
[3] Wallz - Ben, (Ulti), Corrik, (Ctes), (Chang), Blade, (Kirby)
[1] Chang - (Peaf), (Ulti), (MI), Knightz
[1] Blade - (Sbell), (Lopen), (Ulti), Sbell

Knightz and sbell were the only ones not on the big 3 and they're both dead. There's two unconfirmeds on each of MI and wallz. Everyone else either on Knightz or no vote down (igcd, ctes; and igcd was effectively on Knightz). And look at that, Ulti and death have their votes at basically the same time.

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Kirby321
05/09/24 9:07:09 AM
#422:


ctesjbuvf posted...
The SBell scan is very sus though. He calls SBell lock town several times day 1. Calls it a soul read. On day 3 SBell is not included in the "widest PoE I can possibly make" (Topic 8 #221) which includes seven people and four if Ulti removes people he thinks are super town. That SBell "scan" really looks like not wanting to give more info. I really can't see town cop Ulti scanning SBell there ever and it's probably what fueled by interest in investigating this the most, along with looking at this Peaf/Red/MI show and thinking it doesn't look like a place where we have more than one scum.

If it's true that Ulti had SBell in his town pile during Day 3, that's indeed rather suspicious. By Ulti's own logic, he should've scanned Red much sooner, given his whole "Red is one of our best solvers don't lynch him until he's scanned" defense.

PeaceFrog posted...
It would also depend on how the powers receive their results - is it a whole "your action was successful" or "[Name] was [actioned]".

Either way i agree with mi. Taunter should try to be used like a weird bg.

Mine is definitely the former. I don't get informed who I targeted, just that my action was successful.

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ctesjbuvf
05/09/24 9:14:49 AM
#423:


Here is the post in question :

UltimaterializerX posted...
4. Corrik
7. FD
8. IGCD
10. MI
11. Peaf
12. Red
14. Mzero (Replaced Taco)

This is the widest PoE I can possibly make, and even then three of these players look super town.

4. Corrik
7. FD
8. IGCD
14. Mzero (Replaced Taco)

Unless I'm being tricked or a stupid role is out there, I think this is the list.

Apparently all three vanillas with no claimed innocent scan were removed in the reduced version. I missed MI was part of that before being more focused on Peaf and Red probably.

But yeah, I think you can scan someone you think is likely town, but you would rather hit scum always, especially as claimed, there was basically no voiced suspecion at SBell ever while some people town cleared him for Wallz' interactions.

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PeaceFrog
05/09/24 9:16:38 AM
#424:


htaeD posted...
Peaf I expect you ro remember that Xenoblade mafia was a VERY unique set of circumstances for me.
For sure. You couldn't plan on that strategy from the outset.

But same thing here - if lopen was cop you wouldn't have known that at first, and couldn't implement this strategy until after he was janitored.

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MZero
05/09/24 9:19:24 AM
#425:


PeaceFrog posted...
To state the obvious really quick - if Ulti stole lopen's role then Death wouldn't need to be gf for Ulti to fake a scan on him.

sure but if death flips not godfather Ulti is toast

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TotallyNotMI
05/09/24 9:35:36 AM
#426:


MZero posted...
sure but if death flips not godfather Ulti is toast
This

If ulti is scum I'm very confident he would fake a scan on the godfather

And given that ctes is the one who brought this all up, well...

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#427
Post #427 was unavailable or deleted.
#428
Post #428 was unavailable or deleted.
#429
Post #429 was unavailable or deleted.
MZero
05/09/24 9:47:33 AM
#430:


UltimaterializerX posted...
Im ngl that death pings me as godfather.

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Forceful_Dragon
05/09/24 9:52:38 AM
#431:


Presented without commentary, every Ulti post day 1 that involved telling scum to target him, or kill him, or mentioning the usage of cop/doc roles and where they should go.

Topic 1:

UltimaterializerX posted...
Listen to me on days 1 and 2, listen to scans after that,

UltimaterializerX posted...
I would love scum wasting actions on me tonight lmao

UltimaterializerX posted...
Someone please scan this guy tonight. You all know my rule.

UltimaterializerX posted...
Im replicating that play in hopes someone from last game remembers that play in hopes I get shot.

UltimaterializerX posted...
God if scum thinks I'm town power it'll be so great. PLEASE target me, guys. :D


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Forceful_Dragon
05/09/24 9:52:48 AM
#432:


Topic 2:

UltimaterializerX posted...
Red having any activity day 1 means Ill never vote for him before he gets scanned.

UltimaterializerX posted...
Your chances of getting me mislynched are 0%. Mainly because I want scum wasting night actions on me night 1

UltimaterializerX posted...
Youre very very easy to spot as town, moreover I want scum to shoot me, not the guy soft claiming town vig. Save that for the actual scums and let them waste their own time trying to figure me out.

Topic 3: (After Lopen vanished)

UltimaterializerX posted...
The best part is scum is so going to waste actions on me tonight, just as planned.

UltimaterializerX posted...
Someone should just scan Knight tonight and be done with it. This reeks of one of those too easy and hell flip town vanilla day ones.

UltimaterializerX posted...
MI, SBell is lock town soul read. I would literally doc save him if I could.


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Forceful_Dragon
05/09/24 9:53:39 AM
#433:


Topic 4:

UltimaterializerX posted...
Blade its ok, I can just scan Wall myself tonight after we kill Knight.

This post is TOTALLY serious and scum should roleblock + kill me asap !!!

Topic 5:

UltimaterializerX posted...
IGCD being my bro is noted and appreciated. I will not shoot him tonight.

UltimaterializerX posted...
Okay.

Scum make sure you roleblock + kill me tonight.

UltimaterializerX posted... (referring to MI, less than an hour before lynch)
Someone please scan this guy if he escapes.

UltimaterializerX posted...
Scum, please target me. I really, really want you to.

MZero, if your role can redirect me this is the one game you need to keep it in your pants. You have been warned.

UltimaterializerX posted...
Kirby please day scan Corrik tomorrow.


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Forceful_Dragon
05/09/24 9:58:02 AM
#434:


What does it all mean? Well I do notice that the comment didn't really take on a first person perspective until after Lopen poofed.

"I would doc save, if I could"

"I can just scan Wall myself tonight"

"I will not shoot him tonight."

But there was just a hell of a lot of "kill me, target me" in general. From ulti thats something I would expect in advance of a vanilla claim, since iirc he considers eating a bullet as vanilla the most impressive thing you can possibly do. But mostly I just wanted to see what I could find and there it is.

Still combing through Lopen's posts for hints/crumbs, but haven't seen much yet.

---
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PeaceFrog
05/09/24 10:02:58 AM
#435:


That's fair. My point is that it's not a strict requirement, so if say red flips gf i won't necessarily write off death.

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ctesjbuvf
05/09/24 10:06:21 AM
#436:


Ulti, did you ever explain the SBell scan?

If yes, then others can of course answer to

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htaeD
05/09/24 10:07:00 AM
#437:


Yeah I did notice Ulti placing a lot of his hopes in other people's scans at first.

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MZero
05/09/24 10:10:33 AM
#438:


Forceful_Dragon posted...
But there was just a hell of a lot of "kill me, target me" in general. From ulti thats something I would expect in advance of a vanilla claim, since iirc he considers eating a bullet as vanilla the most impressive thing you can possibly do. But mostly I just wanted to see what I could find and there it is.

I kind of expect Ulti to do this regardless of role tbh

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Forceful_Dragon
05/09/24 10:14:49 AM
#439:


htaeD posted...
Yeah I did notice Ulti placing a lot of his hopes in other people's scans at first.

And specifically calling out wallz and MI to be scanned only to pivot to ctes

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htaeD
05/09/24 10:15:56 AM
#440:


Actually that is something maybe in Ulti's favor.
Why wouldn't he just fake a guilty scan on Wallz if scum knew Wallz was already blocked N1?

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ctesjbuvf
05/09/24 10:21:13 AM
#441:


Hm I don't think that's a big point either way. Wallz had a super strong role too and there are more opitions to stop a kill than the block, it is not compeltely damning. Scan on Wallz ends day there and then while alternatively more options and claims could come out, you'd want to hear what people believed they stopped the kill in that case. And hey maybe Wallz even survives if he comes up with a better claim.

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MZero
05/09/24 10:24:51 AM
#442:


htaeD posted...
Actually that is something maybe in Ulti's favor.
Why wouldn't he just fake a guilty scan on Wallz if scum knew Wallz was already blocked N1?

Because then Kirby doesn't have to claim, for one. Also, the Lopen day kill in place of N1 kill theory is still in play

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htaeD
05/09/24 10:25:40 AM
#443:


ctesjbuvf posted...
Ulti, did you ever explain the SBell scan?

If yes, then others can of course answer to

He said he did not expect 'Sbell to die'
Curious why he expected Red to die more than Sbell.

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MZero
05/09/24 10:26:12 AM
#444:


But basically if wallz is going down you might as well make town claim it and reveal themself

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changmas
05/09/24 10:27:59 AM
#445:


very busy today but just to add a discussion point:

wallz specifically made one of his reads on day 1 that Ulti was town power (or scum)

and i called him out for it being an easy read to fake

possible he was setting this up for Ulti later? Cant remember if it was before or after Lopen canishing

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htaeD
05/09/24 10:29:46 AM
#446:


MZero posted...
But basically if wallz is going down you might as well make town claim it and reveal themself

True enough.

Still I dont think it sounds exactly wise to lynch Ulti today. But it is setting off my softer alarmbells.

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PunishedBen
05/09/24 10:30:29 AM
#447:


Eh, i thought Ulti was clearly town before the cop claim. I liked Ulti before he was cool. Why would I question that now? On the chance Lopen was exactly cop? Everything he's done makes sense, including making a scan that doesn't make any sense as the game goes on past day 1 and 2 lol.


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TotallyNotMI
05/09/24 10:32:47 AM
#448:


I agree we don't want to lynch Ulti today.

I do think if we want to pursue this theory, red is the lynch. If he flips scum (not godfather), Ulti not having scanned him yet lends credibility to the theory.

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PeaceFrog
05/09/24 10:34:01 AM
#449:


Yeah, plus the whole "impasse loop" thing unless both Blade and Ulti are scum (possible but unlikely). Ulti is definitely not an option for d4 but it's good to get the discussion out.

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Forceful_Dragon
05/09/24 10:36:57 AM
#450:


TotallyNotMI posted...
I agree we don't want to lynch Ulti today.

Right, to be clear i'm not trying to deflect from my preferred lynch of red, just looking for info elsewhere also.

---
~C~ FD
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