Board 8 > Valentine's Day Mafia Topic 4: Deathly in Love

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Lopen posted...

Question

Did anyone analyze last night thinking one of the following. If so how many

- Chris was likely scum
- Dumey was likely scum
- Death was likely scum
- Ulti was likely scum

Just wondering

Yes
No
I basically thought it was unlikely for Death and Chris to both be scum, but that was the only thought I put into Death being scum.
Yes

As many people who can answer that please do. I need to know.

Lopen posted...

Question

Did anyone analyze last night thinking one of the following. If so how many

- Chris was likely scum
- Dumey was likely scum
- Death was likely scum
- Ulti was likely scum

Just wondering

2 Chris and Ulti but I also have been back and forth on ulti all night too so.

So 1?

UltimaterializerX posted...

After I hard lock clear you. With Reds help, but still!

That just means that I looked at the game with the perspective you could be one of the remaining scum! JC and I talked about you and Red, and your end of day thing with buying Peaf's claim.

My conclusion at the end of the night was that you're just in the PoE. I don't think you're scum for play reasons.

Lopen posted...

Question

Did anyone analyze last night thinking one of the following. If so how many

- Chris was likely scum
- Dumey was likely scum
- Death was likely scum
- Ulti was likely scum

Just wondering

Chris and Ulti I considered "possible" scum, but did not do a full reread with that in mind.

Dumey I considered probable town, which I still think is true but I'm more willing to consider that Peaf broke up a scum/scum pairing under the mistaken belief they would both find safety.

Death was the only one I analyzed much at all, but it was because of something Kirby said.

Last night before bed, Kirby:

So it's worth noting that Corrik and Death were both explicitly opposed to the whole "everybody break up" shenanigans. Corrik could still be town and I could see it fitting since he always seems to be a bit of a contrarian of a player, but Death's refusal to go with "the FD plan" despite him not being a part of it. But then, after one of my "it's not worth saving me" doomspiels, he was the one who said that the rush of relationship breaking could give use info. I can't tell what side of the coin he's playing at here, but I'm not too keen on Death.

And then he posted his suspicions with Death being highest suspicion level at that point.

So this morning during work I did a full Death iso. This was my conclusion afterwards.
FD:

Okay I got through the end of the day and I'm still surprised at how many posts Death had. I would have clocked him as barely being active, but he was around and posting a LOT. He just almost never registered to me in a meaningful way, and a majority of his posting seemed to involve picking and poking and asking clarifying questions without putting too much of his own self out there. I don't think I have as much suspicion of him as you do. He was certainly quick enough to take himself off the board once the chaos began, but maybe he was never too worried about getting the end of day date before someone like isquen. I never had the impression from him that he was actually worried about dying.

But other than those conclusions I found this exchange between Death and Peaf:

T1P409 Death says:

My first thought was to just date someone who can read me well or one of my former scummates like Ulti and Corrik Red and Chris are also tempting.

T1P414 Peaf replies:

Wow not even a mention of someone who fits both of those criteria You wreck me

T1P421 Death replies:

If it makes you feel better I was talking about the most recent game I had, so our past slipped my memory.

To which I said:

Does this exchange happen if they are scummates in this game? Does Peaf ever call himself out as a "former scummate of deaths" if he is a current scummate of deaths?

So I definitely approached the reread from a "Death is sus" mindset as prompted by Kirby, but ultimately it was more of a null with exchanges like that making it seem less likely.

my tl:dr version is:
Yes
No
Yes
Yes

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Chris and Ulti I considered "possible" scum, but did not do a full reread with that in mind.

Dumey I considered probable town, which I still think is true but I'm more willing to consider that Peaf broke up a scum/scum pairing under the mistaken belief they would both find safety.

Death was the only one I analyzed much at all, but it was because of something Kirby said.

Last night before bed, Kirby:

And then he posted his suspicions with Death being highest suspicion level at that point.

So this morning during work I did a full Death iso. This was my conclusion afterwards.
FD:

But other than those conclusions I found this exchange between Death and Peaf:

T1P409 Death says:

T1P414 Peaf replies:

T1P421 Death replies:

To which I said:

So I definitely approached the reread from a "Death is sus" mindset as prompted by Kirby, but ultimately it was more of a null with exchanges like that making it seem less likely.

When was I against everyone breaking up again?

:shrug: ask Kirby!

Forceful_Dragon posted...

:shrug: ask Kirby!

I said I am content and strongly scold the lack of faithfulness going on.

Then I wasn't present for the entire rest of the day, however long that was.

So, I mean, does that fit that narrative exactly?

I mean, when Kirby is the only person without a pair and people start to unpair, he's probably glad about that.

And when you scold people for unpairing, he's probably not glad about that.

I'm sorta kicking around whether Kirby x Lea x Peaf makes sense

I'll have to think about it

Anyone who hasn't answered the previous question please do for more data

Ok so all teams aside from Chris answered

Mzero x Sultan Chris
Ulti x Red Chris Death
Dumey x JC Chris Ulti
FD x Kirby Chris Death Ulti
Corrik x Isquen None
Chris x Death ?
Lopen x Lea Chris Dumey Death Ulti

Literally every team in the game that talked suspected Chris

Unless scum paired with scum I'd say its nearly impossible Chris was NKed and Death was shot directly as scum would know at least two town suspected him heavily and that combined with general vibe, I really doubt he's killed.

Also our team was the ONLY one who suspected Dumey.

Very curious.

Corrik7 posted...

I said I am content and strongly scold the lack of faithfulness going on.

I'm sorry, how else was I supposed to interpret "strongly scold the lack of faithfulness going on" again? Like... excuse me for thinking you weren't too happy about everyone breaking up because you strongly scolded the lack of faithfulness going on lol

Second question did any rooms have major discussions on suspects other than those 4?

Anyway,

I don't think I voiced it with FD, but I had light suspicions of Chris in that he was completely unfazed when everything went down yesterday.

Dumey was a major question mark to me last night and I really couldn't tell what to make of him. But I think he's town now.

FD already explained my suspicions on Death.

I have Ulti as town. Honestly, I can't remember why, but I trust that past me had a good hunch that Ulti is just being stubborn town.

Lopen posted...

Second question did any rooms have major discussions on suspects other than those 4?

You know my answer to this. Did you and Lea humour the idea of scum Sultan at all?

Mzero x Sultan Chris
Dumey x JC Chris Ulti
Corrik x Isquen None

Here are the teams that did not mention suspicion of Death

Doesn't necessarily mean anything but if you assume scum is out for mislynches I would imagine at least one scum would be in these rooms.

However I could absolutely have seen Death being a straight power read.

The other funny angle to consider is if it was done to frame Chris with scum seeing multiple rooms suspecting him and backfired tremendously.

Lopen posted...

Second question did any rooms have major discussions on suspects other than those 4?

Does FD explaining why he can't trust me count? It was a pretty solid discussion imo, because quite frankly I couldn't argue against FD's points at the time.

FD also floated the idea of me, Peaf, and Lea as a potential scum team.

FD and I unfortunately didn't have that much to talk about since we were both busy, but our discussions didn't involve much suspicion, I'd say.

EDumey posted...

You know my answer to this. Did you and Lea humour the idea of scum Sultan at all?

Our only scum suspect talk were the four I mentioned.

Lea talked about Sultan and Mzero but not in a suspect manner.

I see. I was wondering why you left him off your list, but I understand it's who you and Lea were talking about. Just keep in mind that Ulti and FD both independently had Sultan in their stricter POE earlier before I started rambling about sniffing and smelling things. Just so it's not dismissed as random Dumey spiraling.

Gonna head to bed. Hoping Chris can give us some interesting info one way or the other when he checks in.

Incidentally this is why I'm considering if scum Lea is possible

She didn't really seem to have suspects of her own. Those were all mine. She did help talk through it but perhaps that was just her feeding rope to hang myself with.

In particular that we were the only room that gave scum Dumey ANY talk (and that she was actually going for it perhaps more than I was) is certainly interesting to me. She also brought up Ulti as a suspect more than me to her credit, like it wasn't all sheeping me or anything but she didn't bring any suspects that were like "nope" and we were full vibing on Dumey at least being worth considering (though I had mentioned I don't think Dumey and Chris are paired because Dumey had a big rant post on Chris that didn't feel theatre)

Given Death was killed and we were basically talking up a gameplan where we went after Death first as a feint to see if suspected scum would pair though, I don't know. Kinda think I'm overthinking it and it's Lea's personality to play along with ideas given and explore them rather than provide her own contradictory ideas. I dunno.

Good morning. Aww man I had fun talking with death. Doubt I was shot tbh.

Will review my chat with death in a bit

We were losers who focused on town reads lol.

We cleared jc lopen Lea dumey due to how eod played out.

Peaf had ulti as his only tr to start. Death thought it was unlikely he does this w/w and I am inclined to agree

Death also thought kirby and mzero are unlikely to be scum due to various things. Kirby just seemed really pure and mzeros interactions with peaf don't seem partnered at all

Death was blindingly obvious town in our room tbh and he will be missed

Isquen
Corrik
Red

What I am left with if I remove everyone death and I agreed felt unpaired. So either the scum are here or the scum did some cleverness day 1 which you know does happen sometimes

Looking at how things started today I am guessing it's corrik + someone was sneaky.

EDumey posted...

I really wanted to get details from Death to help decide how I feel about Chris. With Death dying, I think I still am on the Chris suspicion train. If Chris doesn't come in and clear up his promise to Lopen, I really want no one to give him any charitability. Don't let the Death flip bias you too heavily.

But right now my top suspect is Sultan. I was already suspicious of him for most of D1, but with Peaf's flip, it made me more conscious of how Sultan was almost obsessively focused on saying one of the early pairs had to be scum. The only problem is that he always directed it towards me rather than Peaf. TO BE FAIR, I had a lot more content for Sultan to react to than Peaf, so I can understand from that perspective. But either Sultan had really good intuition as town and sniffed something wrong with our pair, or he KNEW something was wrong and was pointing it at me instead of a scum mate.

Btw death and I discussed this. You misunderstood my post I was offering to towncase myself during the night

Oh and no way in hell was I shot. They probably shot Death as a dodge. Death and I agreed I would look vulnerable today. Death being bg probably was very surprising for scum lol

I never asked Death for his role. Why would I he was obv town

Anyway I laughed for awhile when I saw the flip tbh. Never in my wildest dreams did I imagine scum would bungle day 1 like that.

Its always nice to be pleasantly surprised.

SirChris posted...

mzeros interactions with peaf don't seem partnered at all

I think I believe Chris's recount entirely due to this

This was something I found when Isoing Peaf as well. And it was notable as basically the only person who said anything anti-Peaf aside from me until late day

Part of me is thinking Death got shot entirely so Chris could not towncase himself and end isolated today.

Now I need to think who was really going on Chris today even after the BG flip.

Yar

Also good work lopen. You manifested your day 1 scum kill lol

Isquen posted...

I am also ashamed to admit just how thick *I* am for not realizing Peaf was scum until a couple minutes ago.

This is super interesting in the context of

Isquen posted...

Didnt read the flip. He either bodyguarded Chris or was directly targeted.

This.

Why did Isquen know THIS flip like instantly when me glancing at it didn't absorb that when he didn't absorb Peaf was scum for 24 hours

SirChris posted...

Yar

Also good work lopen. You manifested your day 1 scum kill lol

Day 1 scum kill always believe. That's what wins mafia games imo

I think of this as a mafia variant but yeah.

I was all prepared to network and stuff to figure out scum smh

Anyway

I'll date you for realsies today if you don't find any dates. So no worries. Solve and stuff

Let's sweep em.

Well death and I narrowed it down to a few names. I am guessing one of isquen and corrik and then someone was sneaky.

Someone is always sneaky lol

I suspect Isquen more than Corrik at the moment basically entirely due to Isquen immediately absorbing the nuance of the BG role when he said he didn't register Peaf was scum.

I'm not sure he's scum but really absorbing that it's hard to accept for me.

People who pushed for your suspicion today after bg flip

Ulti
Sultan
Isquen
Also me but I don't count imo

Red was also perhaps a bit basic in his analysis which pinged me as well. He insisted you were cleared as though you were obviously shot-- a lot of people in the game did not do that and after some analysis of suspect lists I would be extremely surprised if Death was not shot directly. He also insisted that scum would not shoot a bodyguard but would use their roleblocker on it perpetually? Did not make any sense to me.

i came into today thinking sultan/chris/fd were good pressure targets and the nk has me second guessing chris to an extent, and fd coming in hot with the noncommittal red date which i like.

sultan + corrik seems plausible to me, still kind of neutral on isquen and the fact he paired with corrik and didn't create any fruit for himself in his night convo is... annoying.

isquen + corrik scumbuddies having to pair d1 and losing peaf would be... tragic.

also i did a skim for sultan's commentary on corrik and it was only one stray post where he basically said 'corrik's vibes are giving up and dying lol'

so not much to work with

SirChris posted...

Looking at how things started today I am guessing it's corrik + someone was sneaky.

I'm upset. I wanted to mingle with you. Yet, you doubt my purity.

Lopen posted...

I suspect Isquen more than Corrik at the moment basically entirely due to Isquen immediately absorbing the nuance of the BG role when he said he didn't register Peaf was scum.

I'm not sure he's scum but really absorbing that it's hard to accept for me.

Hmm

Yeah that's bad. Corrik can live

Lopen posted...

Red was also perhaps a bit basic in his analysis which pinged me as well. He insisted you were cleared as though you were obviously shot-- a lot of people in the game did not do that and after some analysis of suspect lists I would be extremely surprised if Death was not shot directly. He also insisted that scum would not shoot a bodyguard but would use their roleblocker on it perpetually? Did not make any sense to me.

Death died. There are two options. Death got shot. Chris got shot.

Either way Chris has little motivation to shoot the person he can easily pocket.

Not a lot of scum equity in that kill.

Lopen posted...

Red was also perhaps a bit basic in his analysis which pinged me as well.

When I analyze things they are almost always basic. Mafia is a simple game I don't ever treat it as anything but. Don't know why this pings you in the slightest.