Board 8 > How many prizes will I win at the fair?

(+) Yeah! (+)

go to the fair with a cliche glasses and mustache disguise and see what they say

'Poooooooooooooot siiightiiiiing! What's up hoss, been a minute since we did the Mario. Hope all is well!

I'm doing great, old friend! This is probably the first time I've posted in at least a decade. Still lurking from time to time heh. Hope all is well also.

HaRRicH posted...

I have a fat suit.

Lmfao

guffguy89 posted...

why do you limit it to just this one fair every year? Surely there are other fairs/festivals/carnivals within an hour's drive from you that go on throughout the year that might have this booth there.

Oops, overlooked this -- I always mean to look more into these, but I never find out until it's too late to go. I need to plan harder here and just see what other fairs nearby have.

You got arrested by the carnie cops holy shit

Texting Kathy one more time, we shall see what happens.

I didn't include this part, but it is true: "Also, quick heads-up, I've shared my story of getting banned and have received word a local marketing team's interested in picking up the story for publication. Let me know please if you or your boss would like to be considered for interviews."

Felt too much like strong-arming to actually include that...plus now that I'm not getting more than half of the prizes I could have gotten, I don't think I can do what my original goal was anymore regarding the billboard for my late friend...so I don't want to push the point like that.

But I could.

BUT I WON'T

But I could, even though I won't.

You could

but he won't

But he could!

We need to stop big carna

Carnies are professional conpeople, I'm surprised they let you get two

I GOT TEXTS!

...

...aww, they're just from friends and family. This isn't the time!

Block them so that doesn't happen again.

Big sad.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/3/4/2/AABgm0AAE2JG.jpg

We have a winner.

Youre too much of a softie. No mercy for carnies.

I HEARD BACK FROM KATHY!!!

"Oh sorry I forgot I just talked to him and he said no we don't have enough prices to just sell them or give them out"

Nobody's asking to sell or donate as the first move here -- just let me play. Not pushing that point with them because we know I was gonna keep winning for small amounts of money, but...still, come on.

She did advise to contact the makers of the stuffed animals though...might not be able to get a great deal without a corporate account, but maybe! It's a busy week for me so I won't research right away, plus I remember getting stonewalled a few years ago trying something similar...but I'll leave these here so we're on the same page:

Plush Paradise (makers of the red bull)
Goffa (makers of the blue snake)

I also asked her if she had anybody else prepared for the game in town this year, or if I was the one weird guy.

The conversation went to silence.

FINAL PRACTICE NUMBERS:
Normal stands: 250/307 - 81.43%
Hard mode with backwards bottles: 90/190 - 47.37%
Ten-second stands I practiced once a day: 28/36 - 77.78%

COMPARED TO NUMBERS AT THE FAIR:
At the fair: 2/6, 33.33%, $30, two prizes, one ban

ALL TOGETHER:
Total final number: 370/539 - 68.65%

My fair-numbers had too low of a sample size to really be free from statistical variance...but it's less than half the percentage of everything I've practiced here and is 14% under hard mode practice.

Chalk it up to lights, sounds, friends, employees, heat, money, and differences in our devices like different string length, different rod, different platform angle, etc. Still...gah.

I'm gonna practice on bottle-standing speeds off and on over the year. Me being stuck with ten seconds only affected my percentages a little bit without having nearly as much practice as the rest. I think I can go faster and stay pretty good.

https://shop.thetoyfactory.biz/21x0394.html

Found my bull! Speaking of bull, however, look at that statement at the bottom of the page -- WE DO NOT SELL TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC. Not ideal!

http://www.goffausa.com/products.html

Found real similar-looking snakes on Page 7 under Little Toys.

Kathy got back at me about a detail I didn't expect.

Where we last left off:

HaRRicH posted...

I also asked her if she had anybody else prepared for the game in town this year, or if I was the one weird guy.

The conversation went to silence.

Broke the silence.

"I had a couple people but only like 5 winners the whole fair"

So...about five winners over ten days, and at least one of them were a prize-hunter besides me. I also won two prizes, so like...maybe only four people won?

If so, man, I have to believe the public has done better in the past. Poor the public.

Also, the game-runners were saying previously they make about seven hundred bucks a day through the game. They played ten nights. ~$7,000 estimate then during the fair, right. Each of these stuffed animals could sell for $100+ individually -- I've seen similar items in person at Rite-Aid for $120 plus I have seen one of my donations go for $476 in a fund-raiser -- and I know they have bulk prices straight from the makers to lower these expenses. I heard in the past they could cost the fair as low as $15 each to buy in this way, but I haven't verified that. Still, that tells me the fair made ~$6,400-$6,925 to then split their other costs like wages.

That's ~$1,280-$1,385 the fair made per stuffed animal they lost.

That's ~256-277 attempts for a prize with $5 per try...and ~384-416 attempts per prize with $10 for three tries.

Can I tell you something? They're doing fine, even with me coming in to win. That's a lot of profit margin they're making on most of these, and these are numbers that already include me winning my prizes quickly and having at least one other prize-hunter there. Vary the estimates as you see fit, but money's being made.

And Kathy's boss said they didn't have enough prizes to "give away" or even sell. Don't tell me there couldn't have been a reasonable price. This was a rejection based on my skills, not some business acumen or supply-side struggles.

Just worthy to note.

HaRRicH posted...

Kathy got back at me about a detail I didn't expect.

Where we last left off:

Broke the silence.

"I had a couple people but only like 5 winners the whole fair"

So...about five winners over ten days, and at least one of them were a prize-hunter besides me. I also won two prizes, so like...maybe only four people won?

If so, man, I have to believe the public has done better in the past. Poor the public.

Also, the game-runners were saying previously they make about seven hundred bucks a day through the game. They played ten nights. ~$7,000 estimate then during the fair, right. Each of these stuffed animals could sell for $100+ individually -- I've seen similar items in person at Rite-Aid for $120 plus I have seen one of my donations go for $476 in a fund-raiser -- and I know they have bulk prices straight from the makers to lower these expenses. I heard in the past they could cost the fair as low as $15 each to buy in this way, but I haven't verified that. Still, that tells me the fair made ~$6,400-$6,925 to then split their other costs like wages.

That's ~$1,280-$1,385 the fair made per stuffed animal they lost.

That's ~256-277 attempts for a prize with $5 per try...and ~384-416 attempts per prize with $10 for three tries.

Can I tell you something? They're doing fine, even with me coming in to win. That's a lot of profit margin they're making on most of these, and these are numbers that already include me winning my prizes quickly and having at least one other prize-hunter there. Vary the estimates as you see fit, but money's being made.

And Kathy's boss said they didn't have enough prizes to "give away" or even sell. Don't tell me there couldn't have been a reasonable price. This was a rejection based on my skills, not some business acumen or supply-side struggles.

Just worthy to note.

I hate to disagree but I guarantee their profit margin is way lower than you think.

You aren't including transport fees, days off between fairs (where theres 0 income), lodging cost for the employees. Not to mention things like taxes etc.

Remember this is basically a business. Would you have the same kind of reaction if you went to build-a-bear or target and asked for stuff animals to donate and they said no?

Colegreen_c12 posted...

Still, that tells me the fair made ~$6,400-$6,925 to then split their other costs like wages.

To your point, I'll recognize this sentence is carrying a lot of weight. S'all good on disagreeing, let's hash that out and see where that lands.

(showing my work and figuring this out here)

Wages theory #1: if hourly, it's probably minimum wage for the hours they're open -- maybe more time for open and close duties like moving their stuffed animals to and from each day. The fair was usually open noon to 10:00 PM, and I'll add an hour each day for extra work. Eleven hours of work for ten days is 110-220 hours (recognizing they have two employees regularly working the game but not always together). Minimum wage is $7.25, so that's ranging between $797.50 and $1,595 to cover their staff for this game the ten days.

Wages theory #2: if commission, quick Google search suggested carnival game workers get 20% of commissions -- I don't know if that means per person or split between everyone working. Returning back to my estimate that the fair made ~$6,400-$6,925 to split costs like wages...this could be one extreme of 40% for two employees from $6,400 to equal $2,560 (leaving $3,840 with the fair after wages), or it could be something else as different as the other extreme of 20% for one block of employees from $6,925 to equal $1,385 (leaving $5,540 with the fair after wages). I don't know.

Making a range out of the middle of each of these ranges so far because I don't really know for sure and these numbers need to be contained...simplified estimate here:

Fair made: ~$6,662.5
Hourly wages theory: ~$1,196.25
Commission theory: ~$1,998.25
Averaging these two theories: ~$1,597.25

Fair's ~$6,662.50 minus wages' ~$1,597.25 equals the remaining amount of ~$5,065.25

---

To the rest of your point: let's hit this again with corporate income taxes this time:

Fair's taxed to ~$6,229.44 minus wages' ~$1,597.25 (employees will see ~81% of this) equals the remaining taxed amount of ~$4,632.19

Transport fees: no idea

Days off between fairs: this seems like they would have Monday-Thursday every two weeks where the fair is closed, assuming they are staying with the same fair and not like freelancing between different fair companies. I don't know if they have four days off after ten days on, if they're working for "free" like it's salary during these four days, if they're working hourly during some portion of these days, or what. Those fairs move during that timeframe, no doubt, but I don't know what pay expectations are for them.

Lodging: here's a reddit link asking a similar question:

https://reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/s/Q89Hokbi06

Sounds pretty common for people to sleep on-site or in vehicles, but those are only a few responses and some are old.

Food: not listed here, but that above thread made it sound like food banks are a thing and then if you're living on side for minimum wage I have to imagine the food has a discount or is maaaaaybe even free.

Regardless, definitely some other costs here and that's just for this game. I'm sure that goes for all games to some degree and also has to account for the fair's bigger picture like marketing, land rental, etc. as well as the fair's potential for subsidizing costs like entry fees and parking. I just don't know how those numbers turn out.

Colegreen_c12 posted...

Would you have the same kind of reaction if you went to build-a-bear or target and asked for stuff animals to donate and they said no?

Asked for donations many times and have been turned down many times, I respect that. This is a game and a contest though...little different, and I have seen them change the rules as a reaction to me (which I'll own, I know I am hard on their business model despite my belief they plan around people like me for their business). That said, Build-A-Bear would also still sell me a stuffed animal -- the fair's choosing not to sell to me after banning me from playing their game. No further official interaction with their business, in that sense, and that's more messed up.

Wait, are you still banned next year too? If so, that's competely unfair, and shows you how they're con artists. You need to come at night when it's busier next time, maybe you can get away with more.

HaRRicH posted...

Asked for donations many times and have been turned down many times, I respect that. This is a game and a contest though...little different, and I have seen them change the rules as a reaction to me (which I'll own, I know I am hard on their business model despite my belief they plan around people like me for their business). That said, Build-A-Bear would also still sell me a stuffed animal -- the fair's choosing not to sell to me after banning me from playing their game. No further official interaction with their business, in that sense, and that's more messed up.

They do, by banning you.

Anyways, my point was that you are making a lot of assumptions and looking at a small piece of the overall fair. I wouldn't be surprised if these kind of games were the second biggest money maker (after food most likely) in the fair. A lot of rides cost a lot (quick google search let me see 100k+ for a used ride, up to a million for new). In addition to maintenance. I'm pretty sure you are underestimating the salaries, (unless they are paid under the table which they might be) since you aren't including workmans comp or anything like that and acccording to some googling the average page is between 9 and 17, as well as the day the spend picking everything up.

It's also a seasonal thing so there will be slow periods. Not to mention insurance, transport (which is likely a fair amount)

I'm not saying fairs don't make money, they obviously do, but its a hell of an investment (easily a million up front) for probably a lot less income than you would think.

You have a fat suit

BlueCrystalTear posted...

Wait, are you still banned next year too? If so, that's competely unfair, and shows you how they're con artists. You need to come at night when it's busier next time, maybe you can get away with more.

I really have no expectation of a forever-and-ever ban as the actual intention, and I have never seen them keep the same staff year to year anyway...so even if they intended to ban me forever, in practice it would be unlikely for them to follow through with that. That said, I technically can't rule it out as a possibility.

So I'm keeping the blue snake as the last prize that got me banned -- first time I'm keeping one of these. Gonna give the other prize which was the bull as a birthday gift to someone who was a tremendous help when my friend last year passed away. I just don't think I can fundraise off of two of these enough for a billboard like I wanted at first, since I was counting on having many more to sell to make that happen. This will have to suffice.

Those are fair points Colegreen. For what it's worth, while I've seen some mentions before of paying under the table, I did just now find this:

https://api.seasonaljobs.dol.gov/job-order/H-400-23184-164089

Arizona ain't my state, but that's $15.27 -- more than double the minimum wage here -- for thirty-five hours a week.

Colegreen_c12 posted...

I'm pretty sure you are underestimating the salaries, (unless they are paid under the table which they might be) since you aren't including workmans comp or anything like that and acccording to some googling the average page is between 9 and 17, as well as the day the spend picking everything up.

Also, am I understanding this correctly as a typo for age? I knew a person who worked the fair at the end of or right after high school once, and many people working there are young...but otherwise, for those facing the public, I am unconvinced that I've seen anyone work the games there in this age range (would have guessed lots of 18-25 year olds)...plus there are a lot of older folks working there too to bring the average up more.

I think I see this 9-17 range more with the food stands, but still talkng like high school probably and not like...nine year olds. Never seen that at the fair.

All anecdotal and all guesswork, of course.

average pay* sorry

lol all good, that checks out more.

I think that's gonna be it for updates on this topic. Let me know if ya'll got any remaining questions, otherwise just know it's been fun on my end and I appreciate having people around who enjoy these stories!

BlueCrystalTear posted...

they're con artists

Well yeah. That's like a fair's whole thing, to con you out of your money with (nearly) impossible to win games lol.

A bump.

So I've worked on the side of the prize havers in an arcade, and what I can say about prize games of this nature is that they never lose money. Not even close. Even when there are games of skill involved. The plush you'd expect to pay $25+ for in a store costs them something like $5. At your in-fair win rate of 2 big ol' plushies for $30, they still made out fine. That snake was huge, a store might charge you $50 for that. They maybe paid somewhere near $10 from their distributor that does not sell to the public. Or they may have even paid less, since it's a pretty simple thing to make. Heck, the $5 per play they charge could be the actual break even cost for them on it.

Are there other costs on their end? Of course. But someone winning 1 in 3 is a huge outlier, while hundreds of others almost certainly tried and failed. And that's just one stop on a long tour.

I voted that you'd win 1 and they'd set that as a limit. Happy to see I was wrong. But it's still bs that that they would ban you regardless. Even if you had a 100% win rate and went ten for ten, they were not going to lose money by visiting your county.

Appreciate the arcade insight!

These stuffed animals go for a lot more than $50 sometimes. I saw one in a similar size as the bull at Rite-Aid for $100 or $120 before. One of my prizes auctioned off for a non-profit to get $276 too, plus it had a $200 match for the grand total of $476 it made.

Yeah though, I dunno what the bulk rate is these fairs are actually getting per prize of this size. I've thought as low as $15 per item, but I've not gotten confirmation anywhere.

antipurge so I can read what I missed

Somebody I know sent me a picture of them winning at the Bottle Up game because they heard my story. They went on to look up videos about how to play and win, and then their fiance won a giant coyote of a prize (they both tried but only one won).

On one hand, this is extremely worthy of celebration and I'm glad to see big carna taken down a notch again. Get 'em!

On the other hand, my dad won the same prize several years ago. Their first big victory is second-generation old hat over here.

Just funny to see it spread.

That's ~$1,280-$1,385 the fair made per stuffed animal they lost.

thats the price you should offer them, then!

I asked them to sell! They're responsible for naming the price if they want to sell...!

Honestly though next year I wanna come ready for that question with an answer like that just to see what they say. I ain't gonna pay it, but if they were to ban me again I wanna walk up with like a pocket watch or something else that's extra-extra and ask if that would suffice.

If they're gonna ban me again, let their eyes widen for a moment before disappointment settles in.

Then they'll know my pain.
THEN THEY'LL KNOW

Bump.