Board 8 > Paper Mario Mafia Topic 11 - Hangin With Mr Kooper

(+) Yeah! (+)

That would be way funnier if he was lynched, but with MZero asleep this is the dark future you live in.

Alive (5):
Hb
Kirby
Peaf
Plum
Ulti

Shredded:
LD1: Isquen Eldstar, TOWN Vanilla
N1: Lea Bombette, TOWN Bomb
KN1: SBell - Koopa Bros., KOOPA TROOP Ninjas
LD2: Sultan Mario, TOWN Hero
KN2: death Lady Bow, TOWN Doctor
KN2: Cody Muskular, TOWN Vanilla
LD3: Ben Bowser, KOOPA TROOP Bulletproof Role Scanner
KN3: JC Watt, TOWN Jack-of-all-Trades
LD4: red - Jr. Troopa, KOOPA TROOP Persistent Little Shit
KN4: ctes Kooper, TOWN Vanilla
LD5: EDumey - General Guy, KOOPA TROOP Roleblocker
KN5: Han - Goombario, TOWN Flavor Cop

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. Day ends at 9:00 P.M. Eastern (I dunno like 30 hours from now).

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch

Plum [2] - (Kirby), Ulti, Kirby
Kirby [1] - Plum
No Lynch [0] - (Plum)

Day ends in 30.7 hours.

masterplum posted...

What changes is the 5% chance you are scum gets taken off the table.

Leaving ways to lose open is stupid

If I were scum, then I'd fake a scan on Ulti and have you all lynch him.

As scum, I have no merit to faking a scan on you unless Ulti was my scumbuddy, and for that to be true, you'd have to believe that there were six scum versus eleven townies.

Kirby321 posted...

If I were scum, then I'd fake a scan on Ulti and have you all lynch him.

Thing is, you couldnt, because people would probably lynch you the next day. Its 1v4.

Hbthebattle posted...

Thing is, you couldnt, because people would probably lynch you the next day. Its 1v4.

Fair point.

So if I were scum, why would I bother faking a guilty scan at all, knowing that it would incriminate me the next day? I could just as easily clear one of Ulti or Plum, lead a lynch on the other, then try to fake a guilty on Peaf.

So in the small chance you are scum, you do nothing, we kill Ulti here, and it gets to final 3 with what, you me and Peaf?

You are dead there.

I still don't think you are likely scum but you 100% absolutely do something like this if you are

Oh that's the other thing

If I'm scum, why would I fake that I'm burned? If I'm still alive tomorrow, then obviously I'm lying.

I have no reason at all to fake any of the information I've presented today if I'm scum unless I was trying to protect Ulti as scum. For that to be true, then that means the setup was 11-6 with Day 2 being MyLo after just one mislynch due to burn (not even factoring the possibility of Lea and Sultan killing each other).

Plum, there's extremely little reason to believe that I am scum. No Lynching does nothing productive as the only reason to do so is to believe that I'm actually burned, which evidence and logic dictate that I am more than likely just telling the truth.

We still have no idea what else the remaining scum member can do besides burn people. If scum has one last trick up their sleeve that can net them a kill this late into the game, then we lose anyway just by No Lynching. If they don't have any such tricks, then the game state doesn't change at all.

Oh you are not the most likely, its just the safest option.

If you are scum it kills you and if you aren't you don't get to punt the game by killing me.

Why you would specifically go with yourself being burned? What other options are there? You already claimed to not be able to scan and if you do nothing you lose in final 3

UltimaterializerX posted...

We know youre not scum bro, we just need one of our two stragglers to actually end the game and hammer for the win already.

You know Plum's whole objective is to make you look bad, right, Ulti?

I would advise not trying to gaslight everybody and agitate them further than you've already done this game.

By this point, the two sides of the debate are clearly:

"We should No Lynch on the very extremely small chance that Kirby is scum."

versus

"We should do a regular lynch right now because we don't know what else the last scum member can do, and since Kirby is burned, we lose the game if the last scum member does anything."

Here's a proposal: we lynch someone today. If we're wrong, I kill the other dude and we still win. If scum can redirect my attack somehow anyway, we were gonna lose anyway for mislynching no matter what.

We could also No Lynch, but then we don't get any information on Plum or Ulti. If one flips town, the other has to be scum.

By No Lynching, y'all are banking on each other to correctly figure out the scum if I refrain from attacking or otherwise hoping that I guess correctly on the 50/50.

One option gives us an almost assured chance of victory, the other is uncertain and opens the path for the remaining scum to manipulate the lynch.

I have a pretty bad migraine so I'm going to be out for a while

UltimaterializerX posted...

Youre not AFKing out of this.

Ulti, chill out.

Let Plum take a break. This the topic and the last have been nothing but us three going back and forth.

Instead of further bickering, let Peaf and Hb take the floor and posit their thoughts.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Possible he dies from burn damage first before getting an action off

What the fuck is this, that's not how action ordering works

Kirby321 posted...

Here's a proposal: we lynch someone today. If we're wrong, I kill the other dude and we still win. If scum can redirect my attack somehow anyway, we were gonna lose anyway for mislynching no matter what.

This is a 50% chance of you using the correct attack, no?

Peace___Frog posted...

This is a 50% chance of you using the correct attack, no?

Only on Ulti. It's practically guaranteed against Plum, and if it's not, then either the setup is bullshit with two scum Bulletproofs or Ulti is scum anyway.

But again, that's assuming scum doesn't have a of redirection ability of any kind.

Kirby321 posted...

Instead of further bickering, let Peaf and Hb take the floor and posit their thoughts.

Yes, i want to hear from hb.

Let me guess, you want to propose lynching Ulti first, and then if he flips town, then I kill Plum?

I suppose I can't be opposed to the idea, but I hate it nonetheless. Everything points to Plum being scum, and if we end up losing because scum had a power that we didn't account for, then I'm gonna be extremely salty.

I am still in favor of lynching Plum today while we know for a fact scum cannot control the lynch during the daytime outside of sweet talk and persuasion.

Since Ulti is a 50/50 chance, that is currently my preferred idea, yes.

For however much Ulti is saying it's a guilty scan, there is ambiguity here. And plum has been far more engaged with the game than he has.

UltimaterializerX posted...

This is factually and provably wrong.

No... no, he's right. If he were wrong, this wouldn't even be a debate and Plum would've been lynched already.

And while I understand your cautious perspective, Peaf, please tell me where the ambiguity is in my results from last night.

We all agree that I was burned because Plum resisted my jump attack. Sultan's role flip states that whatever negative status effect I obtain from a failed jump attack depends on who I targeted, and my role states the same.

For flavor reasons, Dumey resisted my Hammer attack. This makes sense as General Guy is only damageable by jumps in the original game.

I am once again relying on flavor here for my "scan" on Plum, because frankly there's nothing else to go off of, and Red and Ben's flavors heavily imply that the jump/hammer resistances are based on flavor.

In what realm would jumping on the Star Spirit Klevar result in burning Mario? There's obviously no basis for that in the base game, so who's to say what would happen? But burning seems... quite the stretch, no?

You know what other enemies would burn Mario tried to jump on them? Embers, Lava Bubbles...

Lava Piranha
The boss of Chapter 5 in the original Paper Mario. The one who guards the Star Spirit Misstar.

Just as how the Koopa Bros. (Sbell) guard the Star Spirit Eldstar (Isquen) and General Guy (Dumey) guards the Star Spirit Muskular (Cody).

It's a little too uncanny of a coincidence that these happen to line up so well, no?

I'll be fair, I was completely wrong about Red because I relied too much on flavor meta, and we would've been in a really bad spot if we didn't lynch him by Day 5 at the latest.

But I was completely correct about my night action on Dumey, and I don't believe I'm wrong about my night action on Plum here, either.

UltimaterializerX posted...

And no he isn't right. I've done more this game than Plum has. I don't have time to count posts but I'd be very surprised if he has more.

Quantity does not equal quality, my friend...

Lynching ulti and if he flips town hammering me is fine I suppose.

I was initially apprehensive to the idea considering, well, the obvious. If ulti does flip town that means we lose if HB or Peaf did something crazy.

But I guess that is still our best bet considering a no lynch or Kirby lynch also loses to that scenario.

##Unvote
##Vote:Ulti

Allright let's do this

And obviously if Kirby is alive tomorrow we kill him no questions asked

Just a reminder that during the infamous Simple Mafia game, Plum was the first person to push a No Lynch. And he was scum in that game, merely pushing the suggestion to make himself look towny but not seriously entertaining it.

Kirby321 posted...

Just a reminder that during the infamous Simple Mafia game, Plum was the first person to push a No Lynch. And he was scum in that game, merely pushing the suggestion to make himself look towny but not seriously entertaining it.

I neither remember this at all nor see how that is relevant!

I'm just trying to work through what covers our bases. Its probably Ulti BUT IF IT ISNT what would give us the best chance to win

Okay, let's disregard the scans and look at behavior.

If someone goes through the Day 2 posts from Plum, you'll notice two things:

• Plum barely interacted with Dumey or Red at all
• Plum instigated the Sultan lynch

Let's also not forget this soft defense of Ben that also tried to implicate Hb:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/2/2/2/AAS0cuAAENle.png

Plum has been trying to keep his lynch options open all game. Plum has never suspected any of the scum until attention was already on them.

Plum was also gunning for Han for most of the game, coming up with any kind of reason to make Han look bad.

Ulti may be all over the place and inconsistent, but Plum has been very methodical about who he attacks and when to speak up about something.

Well that isn't true at all but ok.

Han was never seriously in any danger. I suspected Han because

I thought han was worthy of suspicion even if nobody else did

UltimaterializerX posted...

Adding to this, Red has a pretty strict hands off scum policy. Or at least, he used to. He might have adjusted in recent months.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Plum's scum game: busses like a madman, throws out dumb conspiracy theories, and in-topic acts lazy.

So yes. If it makes you feel better, I'd kill him first if it didn't look like SBell let it slip that you're scum power.

This man has absolutely no consistency whatsoever

All right, I'm going to go crazy if I have to rebuke all of this nonsense so I am going to assume HB and Peaf are smart enough to not go AH YES! THIS JOHNNY LAWRENCE MEME DEFINITELY DOES IN FACT MEAN HE IS SCUM