Board 8 > YGO Master Duel Mafia Topic 3 - Time Limits and Endless combos do not Mix.

(+) Yeah! (+)

I'm not even entirely sure why Lopen suspects me completely. The early Sultan posts he withdrew again, so it's basically just based on whatever Hb did yesterday and not what I did?

Because Hb might have swapped away last minute but he also pushed me into the lynch pool to begin with. No one followed red.

Simply put I do not think that lynch plays out that way in town/town. Scum is content to just let you die and keep their hands off

With the amount of vote swapping there were definitely scum in there

Also Hb being basically 100% scum with that ridiculous claim and inference he made makes you look WAY worse

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I guess the lynchpin is this - do you think Lopen isn't this bad? If you think he cannot be this bad, then he's likely Scum. If you think he is particularly clever, then he might be.

I'm not sure how you felt about him in Baseball Musical Mafia, but Lopen being scum completely caught me by surprise as an unspoiled spectator. And who knows if he actually would've been caught if Chang didn't taunt Lopen and if Lopen didn't make that bus driver slip/contradiction.

In my eyes, Lopen is a clever player. Sometimes a little too clever in that he can spin some very creative theories. So I wouldn't put it past him to see previous games and think "Everyone thinks I'm crazy, so I'll try being crazy in this game to make them think I'm town."

Because I honestly don't remember Lopen being this loony in Dota 2 Mafia until about halfway through the game, after Sultan and Hb were lynched.

Speaking of Lopen, I thought I had more time, but my office hours are about to start in a few minutes and I got to my office later than I anticipated. Rest assured, I will have my master's thesis on why Ben is Scum prepared once I have the chance (though I'd really prefer investing my time into an analysis of Ctes).

Kirby321 posted...

though I'd really prefer investing my time into an analysis of Ctes

Do that then please. If we can get more people confident ctes is scum it makes Ben look better

ctesjbuvf posted...

Because Hb might have swapped away last minute but he also pushed me into the lynch pool to begin with. No one followed red.

This is huge part of why Hb's vote looks so bad.

It seemed like a blind bus vote cause he thought it was going to be down to some combination of Ben/Sbell/Chang followed by "oh crap he might actually get lynched now"

Put it another way

If hb is town willing to unvote you on as little as he did, he shoudn't be willing to vote you to begin with

What benefit is there for me to push Ctes into the lynch pool in the first place?

You weren't intending to.

The benefit is later game distancing when Ctes or you get lynched. There were many town in contention, few scum. Ctes getting pushed was bad luck.

what benefit is there for me going "hey ctes has gone under the radar, maybe it's worth looking at him more" if he's my scummate?

Lopen posted...

There were many town in contention, few scum. Ctes getting pushed was bad luck.

Awful lot of definitive statements here from someone claiming to be speculating.

I do honestly think you were doing it prepared to jump to someone else. You were practically begging Han to make you vote Sbell, then did it anyway when he didn't

What did HB claim exactly??

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80198310

Hop on over

changmas posted...

My affectionate friend,
Thanks for your kind note. On the nature of our esteemed guest Han, I believe that he has found himself somewhat distracted by the musings of the gentleman Lopen and by SBell prior to his lynch in the town square. Beyond that, I am feeling quite certain that he is aligned with town. I think this letter of his sounds fairly plausible:

I see three possible scenarios for what transpired with BCT, most of which have been proposed at various times by multiple individuals.

1. Sultan is scum and targeted only BCT to frame him, while the rest of scum saves up gems for the more powerful cards like the full trap negate spells.
2. BCT is scum and scum decided to spend 150 gems on two Pot of Greeds + the 50 gold trap (still can't remember the name) to try and townclear
3. (as Han suggested) Scum team just mass Pot of Greeded in case a day cop did exist to muddle the resutls.

Han himself spent at least 50 gold on the trap as well, and he could be either of these simplified scenarios:

1. Han is town who wanted to protect himself from getting Pot of Greeded, so he spent 100 gold on Pot of Greed + the trap to prevent it
2. Han is scum who spent 50 gold on the trap to fake being town, and we don't know what he did with the rest of the gold (could save it, could have spent it on the mass pot of greed play)
And while Han could be devious no doubt, I think that first scenario sounds more realistic to me. OH WAIT - it would actually be incredibly, incredibly stupid of Scum Han to buy and set the trap because it would erase ALL plausible deniability if a day cop did exist and did scan him. He would have to prove that it's the other trap (the 100 gold one) by locking someone's vote on him. Because if he scanned guilty with his trap intact, he couldn't possibly have been Pot of Greeded, and therefore it would be a correct scan.

So then you're into arguing that Scum Han has to be godfather and that's just way less likely than him being town. So yeah, he's gotta be town or godfather to buy and set that trap.

Ahem, let me return to the formal style of my letter. I hope that your seeing the wheels turn in my thought process will make up for the callous and casual style with which I have written above. I trust you will find this information as eye-opening and fascinating as I did.

Sincerely yours,
Changmas

I didn't reply straight away because wrapping my head around the item play has not been conducive to me getting actual work done today.
But fuck, man. After i slowed down and read through your notes here, you explained this really well. Far better than han did. Thank you.

I'm feeling a lot better about chang now. So that means that of the sbell lynch, i feel that the following players are likely town:

• Chang
• Han
• Peaf

That leaves bct, poppy, ctes, and hb. I'm not interested in pushing bct's buttons at all any more, but I agree with sultan (and sbell!) that bct should definitely not be taken as confirmed town.
I've laid my case on hb and have backed off only because he is claimed power and i suspect that he and ctes will be resolved by night actions of some sort tomorrow.
That leaves us with poppy, who i felt extremely good about on day 1 but is a big question mark for me today.

What happened, poppy? Without corrik to bounce off of, you're a little bit lost?

Might as well bump