Board 8 > Board 8 National Football League League (B8NFLL) Season 17: The Offseason

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AFC Seeding

Playoff Teams
1. Portland Express
2. Miami Dolphins
3. Columbus Pioneers
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
5. Denver Broncos
6. Indianapolis Colts

Playoff Contenders
7. New York Jets
8. Cincinnati Bengals
9. Baltimore Ravens
10. Buffalo Bills
11. Jacksonville Jaguars
12. New England Patriots
13. Oakland Raiders
14. Kansas City Chiefs

Better Luck Next Season
15. Mexico City Browns
16. Tennessee Titans

Dark Horse: Denver Broncos
Dark, Dark Horse: Indianapolis Colts

NFC West Prediction

1. St. Louis Rams
2. Toronto Wildcats
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. San Francisco 49ers

The reigning champion Rams should still be the favorites, but I'd hardly call them heavy favorites. They lost two of their starting OL to retirement, and their Cs did not have good seasons. 3/5 of a the line I would call very good or great, but that might not be at the level needed to salvage the running game. To their credit, they did sign veteran Matt Forte to start over Mike Davis who has yet to finish a season above 3.5 YPC. With a much stronger offseason by most of the division, they can't rely on such a one-dimensional offense to carry them to a division crown. The defense is still one of the league's best and return every starter from a year ago. They enter the season with no injuries and play the AFC South in non-conference play. There's a good chance that the NFC West winner will secure a first round bye, and the Rams seem like the best bet.

The Wildcats, who already had a quality defense, went out and drafted a new #1 CB and signed a new #1 DT, giving them a complete team on that side of the ball. QB Aaron Murray is one of the best QBs in the game, and WR Gonzie Massey might still be the best WR. They went out and got a great #2 in Jordy Nelson, at the expense of a young rising WR, and they shored up the OL some. They have never solved their run-game issues since Laurence Maroney retired. Unfortunately, Dalvin Cook, unquestionably the worst starting HB from the past two seasons, will be the lead back, but it is year three for him, and combined with the OL additions, he could finally show what made him a first round pick. Even approaching a below-average run game might be good enough to compete for the division and definitely a wild card spot.

Two seasons ago, the Seahawks completely revamped their defense. While it never approached elite levels, it was good/above-average, a substantial improvement over the terrible unit from before. Now the offense was poor, so they went and completely revamped that. 4/5 of the starting OL is new and they have first round pick Gardner Minshew taking over at QB. Now while rookie QBs tend to start out poorly, you sometimes get one that turns some heads. Given the support system he has in place, Minshew could be one of those exceptions. The schedule isn't great, but the middle portion of it is very favorable to them. If they can play .500 ball in the early and late portions, they could be a sneaky wild card pick or if everything breaks right, compete for the division.

The 49ers have never been a truly bad team. I can't off the top of my head think of what their worst season has been, but I think the earliest they have naturally picked was in the late single digits. There's a lot to like about this team. The defense keeps improving, and the OL, as it has long been, continues to play at an elite level. The rest of the offense though? I'm a bit worried. They've somehow made the playoffs in each of the past two seasons despite a pedestrian passing game (more on the receiving corps than QB) and HB Thomas Rawls being a high-volume, below-average efficient player. This appears to be arguably the strongest division in the league, so while I have them finishing last in the division, I do expect them to be wild card contenders all season long.

NFC East

1. Washington
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. New York Giants

I had a very hard time choosing the winner of this division, but I settled on a repeat for Washington. I probably shouldn't have so much faith in the first season that QBs Nick Mullens and James Curtis threw passes, but they blew away my expectations to where I feel inclined to believe in them even if they won't play at the same level as last season. They poured a lot of 1st round picks on this OL and several 2nd rounders that have risen to the occasion. Combined with the return of HB Ezekiel Elliot and their great receiving corps, this could be one of the better offenses in the league. The defense has also made great strides and feels close to completion. Second-year DT Christian Covington in particular looks like a star in the making. With offensive uncertainty surrounding the division, I'm very bullish on the Washington defense. If you want a sneaky pick for top seed in the NFC, Washington might be it, though the schedule doesn't help. At least they face the Orcas, Rams, Express, and Broncos at home.

The Cowboys failed to make the playoffs for the first time since S6. They took the humbling and had a great offseason with player acquisitions. Will it be enough to reclaim the division or at least get back into the playoffs? The front seven on defense is fantastic, but the pass D slipped hard, so they went out and got a new starting safety tandem. They might have minimal or no starting experience, but the talent is there and will get an opportunity to showcase it. The offense will have to step up. QB Cam Newton remains one of the best QBs in the league, and they finally got a higher-end backup, albeit in the form of rookie Drew Lock. No longer will the middling Jay Cutler be asked to come on in relief. The WR corps is very good. Sammy Watkins hasn't been the same under Newton as he was with Vince Young, but he's still very good. Had he had a few more receptions to qualify, Davone Bess would have led the league in receiving YPC with a figure north of 18. The OL looks a bit different, and they once again lost starting RT Jason Boone to a season-ending injury. If they can improve on their disappointing play last season and subsequently see HB Devonta Freeman become more healthy and effective, the offense could be good enough to get them closer to the level of play they had from S7 to S15. Even a modest improvement in the running game and pass defense should put them in divisional and wild card territory.

The Eagles have the best defense and the worst offense in the division, making it a bit hard to predict where they will land. QB Taysom Hill's efficiency is good, but his impact in the passing game seems to be pretty minimal. Former HB Tevin Coleman had a career 3.7 YPC, so former first round pick Leonard Fournette ascends to the top spot. This isn't exactly an elite OL, and Fournette's first two seasons as a backup saw him have sub-4 YPCs in each, so I'm not confident that he will be an immediate improvement over his predecessor, but I feel it would be difficult to not match a 3.7 YPC. It feels like the offense as a whole just has one of the lower ceilings in the league, meaning to remain in the wild card hunt (or division, who knows), the defense will really have to be special. They have no weaknesses there and plenty of playmakers, so it's possible, but I will need to see them take the next step.

The Giants have started out hot and fizzled soon after in each of the previous two or three seasons. It's not hard to figure out why. The offense and defense has just performed ugly. It's easier to point out what has gone wrong on offense. Poor interior OL and merely adequate OT play, a lack of a true receiving threat as well as secondary threat, and in the case of last season, injuries and inconsistency at QB. The Giants went out and got the best C from the past two seasons in Frank Ragnow and MVP finalist/runner-up HB Isaiah Pead returns. Nothing else was really addressed, but perhaps a healthy season from QB Ryan Perrilloux will at least help out the remaining OL problems even if just a little. The defense is more of a confusion as to why they have played poorly. I have suspected it was mostly due to coaching strategy and bad luck, but the Giants elected to switch to a 3-4, a move that I think is ill-suited for the personnel that they have. Reducing the DL total to three requires you have have a line full strong players who are great against the run given this is a running league/game. Now that is basically me projecting their strengths and weaknesses based on ratings and past performance. With the release of DT Rob Armstrong, who ironically was probably the second-best fit for a DT among all players in the league (DT Red Bryant the first), the DL features plenty of players with 90+ strength but 0 players with an 80+ tackle rating (Rob Armstrong is a 97 and always had a bunch of tackles each season). Perhaps this is an okay time to try this experiment given the stable of HB opponents they will be facing this season, but I don't like their chances.

NFC North

1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Chicago Bears
3. Detroit Lions
4. Green Bay Packers

The Vikings became the second consecutive Super Bowl winner to fail the make the playoffs the following season. It's not hard to figure out why. QB Josh Portis, while still a highly effective scrambling, had his worst passing performance of his career, and with the losses of two Hall of Fame members of the secondary, the pass defense slipped mightily. In an attempt to solve their woes, the Vikings traded Portis and signed Jimmy Garoppolo to replace him, signed a touchdown magnet in WR Brandon Marshall, and they drafted a CB in the first round. They will be without OLB Von Miller for the year, but he's the third-best LB on that team, so I don't think it will be too big of a loss. The schedule looks to be pretty easy with three of the more difficult games being played at home (Steelers, Rams, Wildcats). With the rest of the division having iffy offseasons or a devastating preseason, the Vikings look to be heavy favorites in the NFC North.

The Bears used a fantastic turnover differential to mask a bad defense and average offense to lift them to their first playoff appearance. With retirements, trades, and cuts, the team is definitely worse on paper this season. By winning the division last season, they get a rather difficult first place schedule and play most of the tougher teams on the road. Let's be honest, they could easily crash back down to earth, but with enough star players like SS Derek Linde, DE Everson Griffen, and QB Teddy Bridewater, they might have enough to remain a playoff contender.

The Lions sneaked their way into the playoffs last season and even won their opening game, but this offense is rough. QB Jared Goff is whatever, HB Alex Collins is not efficient, and the OL is nothing to write home about. WR Torrey Smith is basically the only true bright spot among skill position players. This could be manageable if the defense was great, but it slipped last season all the way into the mid-20s. They got in with their turnover differential too. There is some reason for improvement with the return of MLB Jerry Mayes, some development elsewhere, and that OLB Willie Williams and FS Tyvon Branch returned for another season instead of retiring. The Lions have one of the lowest floors in the league due to the offense, but they've shown plenty in recent seasons that they can overachieve. I'm just not willing to bet on it.

I'm only putting the Packers here for the time being because of the awful injury situation from the preseason and no official moves have been made (I do have reports that it might be "Tebow Time"). Right now though, I simply see the team having QB Geno Smith, HB Chris Johnson, and two long-time backups along the DL starting for this team for either the entire season or a good chunk of it. Maybe the defense will still be fine, but this offense is completely built around QB Tyrod Taylor. Without him, or another true scrambling QB, it's hard not to imagine this offense finishing near the bottom of the league. They might be underdogs against every non-divisional opponent this season. It might be a very rough season if they don't make the right moves (they have over $17 mil in cap space!) and adjust their strategy accordingly.

NFC South

1. San Juan Orcas
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Orcas bring back all 11 starters from the #4 defense a season ago. There's no reason to suspect they will not have a great defense again this season even with the season-ending injury to OLB Darius Leonard. The offense is where they made a bunch of changes. While injuries were clearly a major or even the main factor, they were a league average offense last season. The Orcas made a bunch of sweeping changes. Reliable #2 WR Demaryius Thomas was shipped out and replaced with boom-or-bust rental Ted Ginn. Rookie sensation TE Joel Albright takes over for David Njoku. The right side of the OL was replaced by a pair of elite performers who better fit the offense. HB Nyheim Hines was taken with the 15th pick to give the term a bunch better backup option if Knowshon Moreno goes down. QB Jameis Winston won the job after the preseason. The schedule is not going to be easy, but with this basically being a two-team race for the division, they still have great odds of making the playoffs in some capacity.

Due to a really stupid tiebreaker rule, the Falcons ended up missing the playoffs. Ultimately though, they should have played better down the stretch after being the final unbeaten team in the NFC, or maybe it was the entire NFL. This is a pretty great offense. QB Patrick Mahomes has been one of the few very good QBs that have come up through recent drafts, HB David Johnson is either a star or so close to being one. The OL will miss G Aaron Merz, but the trio of LG Willie Colon, C Russell Bodine, and RT Tony Uogh is one of the best in the league. WR Allen Hurns, who has done very well as a #1 and #2, was brought in as a free agent. The defense may look a little paltry in each area, but the front seven at least consistently plays above their talent, and SS Su'a Cravens was one of the best free agent signings last offseason. They tend to have poor injury luck, but it isn't too bad so far. As long as some of their lesser starters that are far below league average don't become huge liabilities, the Falcons can compete for the division and certainly a wild card.

The Panthers had a curious offseason. Among their moves, they let an elite OT in Andrew Whitworth walk, they cut a career 4.3 YPC runner in LeSean McCoy in favor of a career 3.7 YPC runner in Tevin Coleman, and they signed DE Stephon Tuitt to a nearly $9 mil AAV deal who in 64 career starts has something like 54 tackles and 24 sacks. They might have more talent this season, but they also brought in a bunch of players who do not perform well or at least are nowhere close to being worth their price tag. This has been a slow rebuilding process for the Panthers after going 14-34 the past three seasons. Had they chosen different players, I would feel better about their chances for improvement this season even with a rather challenging schedule. If QB Lamar Jackson, who was a very low-impact game manager as a rookie, shows considerable improvement this season, then they might be in a good position to be a playoff contender next season as they do have some great players already on the roster who should still be on the team next year.

Former #1 overall pick QB Trevor Largent "took a break" in his sophomore season as QB Bobby Reid had a comback year by lifting up a sagging offense and more importantly helping the OL develop. There are a lot of young and unproven offensive skill position players starting though, which usually doesn't bode well in the present. It seems likely that the Bucs offense will take a step back with a pocket QB in place and long-time stud HB Matt Forte no longer with the team. The defense may look to have low talent on paper, and they probably won't be great as a whole if I'm being honest, but like the Falcons, the individuals have a consistent history of playing above their talent. The front seven is actually pretty great. It's the secondary that has some issues with a revolving door of merely adequate FSs and a perennially thin CB group. The Bucs have a lot of changes in the secondary again with new starters at #2 CB, FS, and SS. If they all gel and perform much better than expected, the Bucs are a very dark horse playoff contender. The more likely scenario is that this is another developmental year in the rebuild.

NFC Seeding

Playoff Teams
1. St. Louis Rams
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Washington
4. San Juan Orcas
5. Toronto Wildcats
6. Dallas Cowboys

Playoff Contenders
7. Atlanta Falcons
8. Seattle Seahawks
9. Philadelphia Eagles
10. Chicago Bears
11. San Francisco 49ers
12. Detroit Lions
13. New York Giants

Better Luck Next Season
14. Carolina Panthers
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
16. Green Bay Packers

Dark Horse: Toronto Wildcats
Dark, Dark Horse: Seattle Seahawks

Predicted to do well? Uh oh, that's usually when I do awful. I only ever make the playoffs when KCF predicts me to do shit!

I am leaning toward Wednesday and Friday sim days, with Week 1 on October 19th

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