Board 8 > Nickelodeon Mafia Topic 1 new episodes 8/7 central

(+) Yeah! (+)

Man, what a night I had...

So Han's first post?(143) and he already has three suspects(Plum, BCT, and kirby to a lesser extent), I'm assuming the red comment is tongue in cheek. The initial vote on Plum seemed a bit odd(10 examples?), but the further pressure he adds on after that doesn't seem like the type of leading the charge a scum would want to make on day 1(Post 178 especially).

Ulti asked for my opinion regarding the Chang Chart. *shrug* I wouldn't know what him "acting strange" would mean on a day 1 especially, but he he can demonstrate that he's town then that's an absolute win for us. It doesn't appear anyone is going after him at this point anyway.

I honestly agree with Lea's reasoning for claiming day 1 in post 257. I feel like if a town role tried to visit Lea and they got no results she'd just get auto-lynched if she didn't have some way to town confirm herself. Granted I personally would have just claimed miller in her situation, assuming she is town.

Plum is getting voted and I honestly am okay with that. Dude is just posting to post instead of providing town with anything.

Mzero posting a very pro-town post in 299, explaining how town would waste multiple actions on an untargetable Lea where scum would only waste one. I'm curious about why he thinks my first post was fake, though admittedly I haven't been around as much as I should have been(That's my bad).

Making breakfast, but still reading over the game. I should be around for a while and, baring the unforeseeable, be around for EOD. I should have some clearer thoughts once the pounding in my head goes away.

(The fact that I thought I posted that 20 minutes ago probably isn't the best sign)

... Okay, yeah, I wasn't seeing it before, but calling Sheep's attack lazy and voting him is inconsistent. Plum, you also called Death's attack weak and didn't vote for him because... he placed a vote on you?

But Sheep's attack is weak because he didn't vote for you? I get that you might be busy, but this just doesn't make any sense.

Anyway, I'll wait for Red to be online before casting my vote for Plum. Gotta let our resident Scum Hammerer power up and all that.

On the topic of Dark Young Link... yeah, dude's only posted, like, three times in the same timeframe. I think a little pressure would be a good idea.

##Vote: DYL

Did not see DYL's latest post when I voted.

DYL, what are your thoughts on Ben and Ulti in relation to Lea's claim?

Fair vote to be honest.

Ben calling Lea "Town Confirmed" seems a bit odd to me. That's super early to call anyone "confirmed".

Ulti seems more natural, if only because his response reminds me of a very old game we used to play when I claimed miller(After two other millers had claimed earlier).

I would like to clarify that Kirby is not a suspect or mine. His first post made me squint - that's it.

BCT's response did earn him points but I wouldn't say he's swayed me.

Ulti, again, I don't think he's done anything since hopping on Plum with me. Plum is right in the instance that Ulti s vote is lazy. Problem is it's also predictable - Ulti does this D1 no matter what. Lack of more posting does make him look worse if Plum were to flip Town.

And with regards to Red, it wasn't completely tongue in cheek, but he has slipped since in terms of sheer comparison to other players. If someone has a 25% chance of being Scum in a given game, then his chance has risen to at least 40% at this point.

New votals and more 90s madness
[4] plum - Han, Ulti, Lea, Death
[2] Ben - IGCD, red
[2] DYL - (Ulti), MZero, Kirby
[1] Sheep- Plum
[0] MZero - (Ulti), (Ben), (plum)
[0] Lea - (IGCD)

Tidus, since you asked earlier - when I said "Hand Wave Defense", I just meant plum was defending himself by waving his hand.

As in, I call him out for something, he waves his hand and says "Han always thinks I'm scum". It means he's not taking any action in terms of defending himself or providing alternatives, he's just waving his hand and hoping it goes away.

If there is one person I'd like to see right now, and he might be busy today, it is SBell.

Mzero brought up a point regarding Ben that scum would want Lea on the table for a possible mislynch, and wouldn't go so far as to "confirm" her as Ben just did. I believe Ulti is also confident regarding Ben?

I'm not sold on him personally, but I can't confidently say he's scum at this point either. What's giving me pause is posts #294 and #296. Says plum is scum in the former, but in the latter he reaches out to plum?

Speaking of Tidus, I kind of like his initial reaction to Lea and other people's reaction to it. He seems a lot more wary about the whole situation. Also said if Ben flips scum, that Lea is also scum.

Granted he's also in the "Should probably post more" boat.

Kirby321 posted...

If she behaves like scum, her lie will fall apart easily, just as it did last game

Her lie didn't make it an hour last game. I dont see how her claim specifically falls apart in this scenario.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

If someone has a 25% chance of being Scum in a given game, then his chance has risen to at least 40% at this point

Han just making up numbers based on garbage continues.

Dark Young Link posted...

Fair vote to be honest.

Ben calling Lea "Town Confirmed" seems a bit odd to me. That's super early to call anyone "confirmed".

Ulti seems more natural, if only because his response reminds me of a very old game we used to play when I claimed miller(After two other millers had claimed earlier).

Just curious, do you remember much of how I play? Lol

Dark Young Link posted...

Speaking of Tidus, I kind of like his initial reaction to Lea and other people's reaction to it. He seems a lot more wary about the whole situation. Also said if Ben flips scum, that Lea is also scum.

Do you agree with that assessment?

Dark Young Link posted...

I'm not sold on him personally, but I can't confidently say he's scum at this point either. What's giving me pause is posts #294 and #296. Says plum is scum in the former, but in the latter he reaches out to plum?

What exactly about reaching out to him is giving you pause? If Ben is Town, he doesn't know Plum's alignment. I think there's more utility in trying to give players outs as Town, rather than just screaming "SCUM! SCUM!", because everyone is gonna have a bad Town game sometimes.

Did you ever explain your Ben vote and would you care to, Red?

Moving forward with the assumption Plum is scum - I think that would make IGCD 100% town if you read his posts up to him voting for me. He voted for me almost exclusively because of my going after Plum early on page 1 and finding that disingenuous.

When I mean 100% town I mean 100% never ever ever to be lynched again.

Oh also I do have my vote on DYL, Sultan.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Please don't vote for and dog pile on DYL. Give new/returning players a chance to breathe and get the rust off.

I kinda agree, but I'll give those votes credit for getting him to contribute more! I think the pressure being mostly on Plum right now is enough space for him.

Correct new votals
[4] plum - Han, Ulti, Lea, Death
[3] DYL - (Ulti), MZero, Sheep, Kirby
[2] Ben - IGCD, red
[1] Sheep - plum
[0] MZero - (Ulti), (Ben), (plum)
[0] Lea - (IGCD)

Dark Young Link posted...

Mzero brought up a point regarding Ben that scum would want Lea on the table for a possible mislynch, and wouldn't go so far as to "confirm" her as Ben just did. I believe Ulti is also confident regarding Ben?

I'm not sold on him personally, but I can't confidently say he's scum at this point either. What's giving me pause is posts #294 and #296. Says plum is scum in the former, but in the latter he reaches out to plum?

Oh yeah i wanted to extend the olive branch for Plum. 1 - because you can never be 100% sure someone is scum and if he is town I want him to prove it. But 2 because if he was scum I wanted him to engage with me and answer my question so we could squeeze more information out of him. Its a win-win to try and reach out. He didn't address me directly though so that only makes him more likely to be scum in the end

PunishedBen posted...

Just curious, do you remember much of how I play? Lol

I do not.

Sheep007 posted...

Do you agree with that assessment?

I agree with the caution he's showing, I don't believe Ben flipping scum would make Lea scum though. Of course, as I just said, I don't recall Ben's playstyle so I don't know if he's the type to buddy up with a scummate.

Sheep007 posted...

What exactly about reaching out to him is giving you pause? If Ben is Town, he doesn't know Plum's alignment. I think there's more utility in trying to give players outs as Town, rather than just screaming "SCUM! SCUM!", because everyone is gonna have a bad Town game sometimes.

That is true, but part of me is wondering if it isn't scumBen trying to get scumPlum out of trouble, without it looking like he's trying to do so, if that makes any sense. I guess it's just the confidence of the statement "The simple answer is Plum is actually scum and things are simple.", followed up a less certain sounding post.

PunishedBen posted...

Oh yeah i wanted to extend the olive branch for Plum. 1 - because you can never be 100% sure someone is scum and if he is town I want him to prove it. But 2 because if he was scum I wanted him to engage with me and answer my question so we could squeeze more information out of him. Its a win-win to try and reach out. He didn't address me directly though so that only makes him more likely to be scum in the end

Alright, fair enough. Plum's lackluster reaction to that certainly didn't help his case.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Please don't vote for and dog pile on DYL. Give new/returning players a chance to breathe and get the rust off.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I think Plum looks bad with or without your help.

However, parroting you on day one is generally a good idea, because you're very good at town reads on day one and you bus like a madman as scum. MATH ANALYSIS says Plum has a 77.5% chance of flipping scum based on your interaction with him alone. Add in his actual posts, such as lying with his Sheep interaction that MZero already pointed out in post 338, and that number jumps to about 81%. I'll take those odds over the typical day one fare of 28-33% we usually have.

I am not a good town player when it comes to getting reads, but I am good at MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS. The numbers don't lie, and they spell "|>1545732" for Plum at Sacrifice.

Han I'm pretty sure Ulti is just town or he is fooling me hard. Idk, every time he posts I like it

Still not caught up.

Sheep, from early on you were clearly a beacon of town. can you give me 3 sentences behind the plum lead and Dyl follow up in votals?

Dear game, Expect a more involved day 2 from me. Yesterday's drive plus fathers day, turns out this was a poorly timed start.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I think IGCD is town, but if Plum flips scum I want Red killed tomorrow. I specifically said Ben and Lea are untouchable and Ben is literally my mason buddy. Come on Red.

Because he's voting your Mason buddy?

UltimaterializerX posted...

Ben can I get some thoughts on the two people voting for you?

Well lets see. As stated I'm 100% confident IGCD is town if Plum is truly scum. Even if Plum is town, I think IGCD has a right to think I was disingenuous with my early attack on Plum and I've seen the town perspective in his posts. He's less confirmed if Plum is town but still likely town imo.

Red I am neutral on. He said he voted me because "unfun Ben is scum Ben"

I think it is time I ask Red for the example post where he first thought i was not having fun and therefore scum.

And I remember when IGCD was voting me I only thought it was really annoying that he was not seeing my side of things but not scummy. When Red voted me it did feel like it could have been a malicious jumping on but he has also never really explained his full thought process for voting me or given any update on if he still thinks I'm scum. I'll wait to hear that

Dark Young Link posted...

That is true, but part of me is wondering if it isn't scumBen trying to get scumPlum out of trouble, without it looking like he's trying to do so, if that makes any sense. I guess it's just the confidence of the statement "The simple answer is Plum is actually scum and things are simple.", followed up a less certain sounding post.

That kinda lines up with the Scum Ben from last game, but it really doesn't feel like that? Idk how to explain but it feels like he's truly trying to come to the right conclusion and prodding Plum to do that.

Also I agree with the conclusion that Ulti is probably just Town. I struggle to read the dude a lot of the time but my gut is shouting he's Town with a lot of posts, and he feels way more active than his typical D1, which I take as a good sign. Unfortunately I vaguely remember Ulti being good as Scum, so I'm still a bit on edge, but I feel great about him for D1.

Obellisk posted...

can you give me 3 sentences behind the plum lead and Dyl follow up in votals?

Plum got pressured by Han and crumbled, didn't address anything asked of him, didn't offer any alternative or solid attacks on players, and has generally been impotent. I moved onto DYL to get him active and stop the day stagnating, and said Plum was pretty obviously scum and should be lynched today in the same post. Plum then leapt on me in a very strange post saying that I should be voting him if I want to lynch him, before quickly following it up by complaining about how bad my vote on him was.

I recommend reading those posts yourself today, even if you don't have time for the whole game right now (#330-350).

Also I missed Red saying the unfun Ben thing oops

Leafeon13N posted...

Han just making up numbers based on garbage continues.

Red being mad that I fingered his Scummate so early in the game continues

UltimaterializerX posted...

Hey Red, can I have a compare/contrast of fun Ben versus unfun Ben? I would like two examples from past games.

No you cannot I have work today.

But fun ben is scare masonbuddies unfun ben is last game surprise neighbor suicide.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Red being mad that I fingered his Scummate so early in the game continues

This doesn't even line up a little to how I'd react as scum in such a scenario, Han.

Actually, it lines up 100%.

Bam, got 'em.

##unvote
##vote: kirby

So I also tried to ISO Plum (even if that may repeat DYLs findings and Plum didnt do much of anything).
But on page1 Ben and Chang both independently burned Plum for his comment about scum not being able to claim town
Plum tried to reflect that back to Ben, yet he didn't respond to Chang. Dont know what to make of that. Is Plumscum the type to avoid talking to fellow scum or not? His explanation for why he did not call out Chang makes no sense either way even as a joke.
And while I do like Ben for needling Plum at the start, I am a little less fond of the way he said he would drop his suspicion if Plum admitted he was being facetious. (Though to his credit, Ben added that he would just try to find better reasons to call Plum scum)

Then Plum voted Mzero, which didn't lead anywhere due to Han eventually taking over discussion. The vote comes across as one that doesnt have his heart in it, but if Plum flips scum I am still leaning towards calling Mzero town.

I'm satisfied enough with DYL's posts. We got content. ##Unvote

Just one comment...

Dark Young Link posted...

I'm not sold on him personally, but I can't confidently say he's scum at this point either. What's giving me pause is posts #294 and #296. Says plum is scum in the former, but in the latter he reaches out to plum?

I think you're reading too into it. My interpretation of those posts were, "Between Han and Plum, Plum definitely looks worse. But I'll play devil's advocate a bit just to make sure Plum isn't actually town."
... Which Plum never addressed. So uh... that's another point against Plum. But that's just how Ben plays.

... Wait, I just remembered. Ben never confirmed me as Town! Maybe he is Scum this game, that dastard! >:(

But I mean, I am a little uneasy about Plum being too simple of an answer... but as far as Day 1 candidates go, he's probably the safest lynch. If he ends up claiming without a counter, though, I'm not sure who would be the next best option. I think I saw Red as another lynch option if Plum flips Scum? Probably just Han mentioning it, but nothing about Red has brushed me wrong so far.

Speaking of Red, though...

Leafeon13N posted...

Her lie didn't make it an hour last game. I dont see how her claim specifically falls apart in this scenario.

I... think there's a misunderstanding? My point is that:

• IGCD thinks Lea's act of claiming was anti-town because it could potentially be useful against scum (but now that they know about her role, they're obviously going to leave her alone)
• changmas argues that Lea's claim was pro-town since otherwise it would have looked bad if a townie tried to scan Lea but got blocked
• IGCD counters by saying that, because of her claim, a town power role would feel inclined to test her claim and thus waste their scan on her instead of someone else
• MZero responds that scum wasting their scan on Lea isn't as significant as multiple town power roles scanning Lea, each of them getting blocked, but unable to say anything because they don't want to reveal their power (whereas the scum team shares info with one another)
• I say that I agree with MZero and that it's not worth scanning Lea tonight when there are better options. We can suspect Lea for her claim, but I don't think there's any sense in acting on those suspicions until later in the game. If Lea has generally been town-like, then it's likely she was telling the truth. If she's been doing nothing or otherwise being anti-town, we have reason to suspect that her Invisible claim was just a hoax to avoid getting mislynched.

Let's focus on confirming other townies first, and then later in the game, if we think Lea isn't behaving like a townie, then we can invest a scan. Right now, Lea is not a high priority imo

That's the point I was trying to make here.

htaeD posted...

So I also tried to ISO Plum (even if that may repeat DYLs findings and Plum didnt do much of anything).
But on page1 Ben and Chang both independently burned Plum for his comment about scum not being able to claim town
Plum tried to reflect that back to Ben, yet he didn't respond to Chang. Dont know what to make of that. Is Plumscum the type to avoid talking to fellow scum or not? His explanation for why he did not call out Chang makes no sense either way even as a joke.
And while I do like Ben for needling Plum at the start, I am a little less fond of the way he said he would drop his suspicion if Plum admitted he was being facetious. (Though to his credit, Ben added that he would just try to find better reasons to call Plum scum)

Then Plum voted Mzero, which didn't lead anywhere due to Han eventually taking over discussion. The vote comes across as one that doesnt have his heart in it, but if Plum flips scum I am still leaning towards calling Mzero town.

Good pickup on Chang.

Was that vote on MZero before or after I started gunning for Plum?

Before.

Vote on MZero was lazy for Ulti, but I'd be lying if I didn't consider auto-voting MZero because he's always Scum in the past.

It's a very lazy second vote from Plum. Easy to put a vote down without actually committing to anything, since it's not a real suspicion and MZero doesn't post much either. But I would also caution that it's not indicative of Plum/MZero in terms of both's alignments, since it's an easy train to hop off of.

Ben Im not following this IGCD is 100% town logic even though youve explained it like 3 times. He found your logic in the first 50 posts disingenuous and therefore hes 100% town never to be lynched? Thats a lot of certainty on a very, very early interaction. I know why you believe that, but why should we?

also Im leaving for my parents house in like 2ish hours so barring an unexpected development before then my vote will be sticking on plum,

he would do well to claim town gladiator before that point

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


Huh? Am I misunderstanding here? Tidus posted several times with his own thoughts on what's been going on in the game IIRC.

But this is just a petty argument regardless. You could be super busy and still be scum. Tidus's busyness is not indicative of his alignment

also tidus will 100% resolve himself by day 3. He literally cant help himself.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


Ive played 2 games with him and observed one other. Hes rolled town power twice and - by himself, without being prodded - threw out so many hints that he claimed both roles by day 2. And the other game i observed - he was scum and got caught on day 1, which ended like 24 hours early because he was so caught.

hmm. Now that i wrote that out, I suppose that means theres a lot of value in going after him actually if you can get him to respond simply because it will resolve so easily. So carry on.