Board 8 > Star Wars and Pokemon Mafia Topic 12 - The Town Awakens

(+) Yeah! (+)

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Fun theory: role Thief is a pokemon ability that effects the target the following night. This would explain n1 being fine

It sounds so convoluted that I wouldn't believe it... but if Mzero truly isn't the Role Thief (given that he's the only person alive who wasn't scanned by Cop Death and is the only person without an N1 alibi), then that's the only explanation... sorta.

I'd be willing to believe a Ninja Role Thief first before believing in an ability like that. Yes, they should've used their scan on Hb N1, but that's not what happened. Perhaps the ability truly is locked to the Pokmon side. Maybe. But I think maybe they didn't see Hb as particularly threatening and wanted to try using the power on somebody else to identify their role (namely you, Chris, as I believe Ulti theorized back in D... 6? I forget which number we're on now) and ended up hitting vanilla.

In any case, assuming no Ninja shenanigans and that the Role Thief is not a delayed Pokmon-sided ability or an untrackable day action and barring a second Godfather (okay maybe that's a lot of assumptions), Mzero is the only person who fits the bill of being the scum Role Thief.

Not gonna settle on that lynch just yet because, as shown above, that's a lot of assumptions to make. Still something worth considering, even in spite of the fact that Lea was running Mzero over with the bus multiple times.

But between Abacus and Mzero, I'd rather vote for Mzero. It is odd that Lea and Abacus didn't interact that much, but Lea strikes me as a very deliberate player. She probably went so hard on Mzero because she expected people to back off of him. Even then, if Mzero is town, that tells us that the Role Thief is either a Ninja or a Godfather. So I think we stand to gain informationally from lynching Mzero.

However, I haven't done the math yet on how many mislynches we have yet. Third party is... a consideration, I suppose, and it would explain scum's erratic killing patterns (Red as Third Party Hider Survivor could have fit the bill, I guess?). But I don't think there are any third parties this game, especially not Serial Killer. I agree with Chris; either the scum team seriously believes there exists a third party or it's just white noise to distract us.

if we have 6 scum, we're one mislynch away from lylo
if we have 5 scum, we're doing a lot better

ctesjbuvf posted...

No wait, was that what Isquen used his backup on... but he also correctly Flavor scanner Sbell, so it's a flavor cop they have on the other night.

You know, Hb is mentioning third-party a lot, and he's also a flavor cop.
Hb scum confirmed????

Nah, but that is a good point. We know at least one of the scum is a Flavor Cop. Kinda funny there are three Flavor Cops in this setup, huh?

... Well, actually...
I meant it as a joke, but thinking about it now... it could be possible for Hb to fakeclaim town-sided Tracker. If he and Abacus are scum, then Hb could easily fake the N1 track on Abacus, and then bluff about getting his scans stolen the subsequent nights.

Even with Sultan's role in the mix, Sultan wouldn't know who Hb visited, but instead that Hb moved, which I presume would still go through even if Hb's scan was stolen.

Really, the only problem with that theory is how early Hb claimed and the fact that it was claim to bury Scum's own Tracker/Poisoner (the latter of which they may or may not have not known about) instead of the Neighborizer/Redirector.

This is really just a crackpot theory, and I don't want to take it too seriously. I think lynching Mzero is our best choice for today, but if he is town, then we know that there's been some misdirection here.

Hbthebattle posted...

if we have 6 scum, we're one mislynch away from lylo
if we have 5 scum, we're doing a lot better

Ah, shoot. So we can't really afford to make any big mistakes, then. I mean, we get one screw up, but that's it.

I'm reconsidering whether it's worth killing Mzero today for the purpose of information... Hmm...

(Side note: I'm also alarmed that you, Chris, and I are still alive. Assuming none of us are actually scum, keeping you alive makes sense because of the scan steals. Keeping Chris alive... idk. He's got a strong presence, I guess? And then... well, I have no clue why I'm alive. I'm guessing I'm too incompetent to be seen as a threat to scum? Heck if I know, really.)

Kirby321 posted...

Really, the only problem with that theory is how early Hb claimed and the fact that it was claim to bury Scum's own Tracker/Poisoner (the latter of which they may or may not have not known about) instead of the Neighborizer/Redirector.

Buried Isquen too

Kirby321 posted...

Really, the only problem with that theory is how early Hb claimed and the fact that it was claim to bury Scum's own Tracker/Poisoner (the latter of which they may or may not have not known about) instead of the Neighborizer/Redirector.

well, that and between the scans scum reported (sbell and chris) and my own there are more flavor scans than there's been Pokemon nights. :P

Jokes aside, I think we're mostly safe from the scum at this point besides scum!Chris pulling the world's longest con. The scanners have just been alive too long, and we've whittled the list down.

Regardless,

more seriously, the red shot only makes sense if
A. Either kirby and chris are scum, which is almost impossible - ulti wouldn't have lasted that long, and the mystery of lea's bulletproof would still be in play

B. They're trying to hit someone who ISN'T town.

I think hb is truly just 100% safe after thinking it over in my paranoid box. Claiming tracker is suicide if not actually tracker and no way does town just have cop/prosty for odd nights.

Sbell to me is also fine because if he was third party who had a kill, indulging in that, he for sure doesn't resist killing ulti at any point lol

I really feel like this is 6 man team trying to scare someone. Sk brings a lot of people under suspect that are closed off. Innocent scans aren't clearing. Me butchering sheep and Ben isn't clearing. It's very convenient.

Kirby321 posted...

I'm reconsidering whether it's worth killing Mzero today for the purpose of information... Hmm...

Keep in mind that if it is 6, Mzero and Abacus are the two almost certainly, so we don't have much to worry about.

we've PoE'd the scum team down to almost nothing. We're not in a bad position at all.

Hbthebattle posted...

well, that and between the scans scum reported (sbell and chris) and my own there are more flavor scans than there's been Pokemon nights. :P

That is a very good point. There's no way for that many flavor scans to be out there sans Arti's one scan on Ulti if both of the scanners were scum-side. I also completely forgot you buried Isquen despite previously citing his own Flavor Cop fakeclaim on Sbell... which he only did because he was outed for lying about his flavor).

Okay, I am very relieved that was just a crackpot theory and not an actual possibility lol

... Unless Scum has two Flavor Co- *shot*

... But hey, if Scum truly flavor scanned Sbell, that means he's definitely clear, right? Could have been Isquen trying to bus a scumbuddy, but given how outlandish that Flavor Cop claim was (even considering that he was cornered), I'm willing to believe it was a major slip.

Hbthebattle posted...

Keep in mind that if it is 6, Mzero and Abacus are the two almost certainly, so we don't have much to worry about.

But if this is true, let's kill Mzero first. PoE says he's the Role Thief, and if he's not, then we just discovered that the Role Thief is either Chris (unlikely) or a Ninja/Godfather.

##Vote: Mzero

Chris can't be role thief either actually - no one else has claimed a vig action, so without him Lea's bulletproof isn't resolvable.

Poor scum. They tried.

Hbthebattle posted...

Chris can't be role thief either actually - no one else has claimed a vig action, so without him Lea's bulletproof isn't resolvable.

See, this is probably why Scum kept me alive. Don't think I'd be able to keep my head screwed on correctly without you and Chris keeping my paranoia conspiracy theorist ideas in check lol

Then in that case, if Mzero flips town, that is very, very bad. If Mzero flips scum Role Thief, then that's a lock for Abacus.

If Mzero flips scum but not Role Thief, we still lynch Abacus, and then if Abacus flips town, then it has to be between Scare and Sbell.

... Okay yeah I see why you're saying this game is pretty much solved.

We can make it even easier - i have a scan, and you have a watch. If we catch a scum tonight, I can scan MZero/Abacus and you watch me, and we'll know for sure.

Good plan tbh.

I would be pretty heart broken if kirby is scum just because it feels like I have genuinely pulled him back from the brink a dozen times this game.

Actually, I think I'm gonna watch Ctes. If they didn't kill scanners this entire time, surely they won't kill us now! /s

Btw Kirby please bookmark in your head my rage that you didn't watch ulti. That's going to be explained tomorrow game wise.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

I would be pretty heart broken if kirby is scum just because it feels like I have genuinely pulled him back from the brink a dozen times this game.

Dude I wish my virtual acting skills were that good. Granted, I guess being a crazy townie wouldn't be terribly hard to fake, I suppose...

I'd like to think I have some merit to my claim that Isquen redirected me, though. Otherwise, one of our fellow townspeople would've been poisoned and killed by now.

(To think if we didn't catch Sheep early on we might have actually been in a very bad situation right now. Heck, we would've been in a bad situation if Isquen poisoned somebody instead of redirecting me that night. Kinda crazy to see think about how wildly different this game would've been if things didn't play out the way they did. In an alternate universe, we already lost!)

I wrecked sheep bad. I am very pleased with my early game. This game is even worse for scum if our town had a lot of activity.

Or a desire to not just say sorry and roll over when I am looking for engagement.

I was right Lea giving a fuck was a scum tell lol.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Btw Kirby please bookmark in your head my rage that you didn't watch ulti. That's going to be explained tomorrow game wise.

Oh, trust me, I'm not going to forget. I can already imagine what you're going to say x_x

Here's hoping post-game it's revealed that either a Ninja assassinated Ulti or Lea did, so me watching him wouldn't have made a difference in the end.
(Yes, I know that it's about the intent of the action and not necessarily the outcome, but you see, I don't know what the definition of accountability is)

Do not worry my kouhai I will teach you.

Also has anything flipped so far been a good counter to flavor scanner?

Because another reason why hb is alive after doctor is they just don't give a fuck about hb anymore lol

The counter to flavor scanner is claiming your actual Pokemon flavor and then finding some SW character to fit

or just doing what lea did and claiming your full actual flavor and getting away with it because of the new tv show

What do we have for pikachu/wingull?

you know

Pikachuku would work, wouldnt it

Darth tyranitar would be so much cooler

Dookumyuku

Flavor scan is on the night where it's a lot weaker than it would be the other night. I guess if no one else flat out lied about their Pokemon like Isquen did, then it's not dangerous, tracker can be stolen and watcher could wait until tonight while red can't die tonight if they really wanted him dead...
But if that's the plan, then that still requires town to screw up the night Ulti died and it was pure luck for scum they did. Did they have Lea send their kill believing she was never living another day regardless or just risked it?
I know it's the scum team that didn't think poison was worth using backup on, but these plays are too weird if at least one remaining scum isn't in a better position than MZero and Abacus, I'm not ready to think this game is 100% won.

It's a shame I was always around for those hours where red wanted company and then he dies just as I arrive.

MZero, if you're around, what do you think is the right play today?

Topic 1

Is this (literally) all you have to say? I know we're early in the game, but I was hoping for a little beyond one word and a disappearance. Maybe we need a bit of prompting.

What are your thoughts on Chang and Sultan?

Sheep calls out Abacus for quoting a death post and simplying saying "This." (it was about flavor breadcrumbing). Asks Abacus for his opinions on two townies. Could be scum setting up a buddy who's struggling to generate content?

Ah yes, the scummons - also called having to get up at 7:30AM Central Time for work.

I have played twice total. Twice with Sultan, once was town and once I can't remember, but I think was town. They always seems to ask a bunch of questions, and and can get a tad angry sounding.

Once was with Chang. He is playing differently this time, but they also have more experience than previously. And as for Lea's "Chang may be suspicious", I'm not sure how much more you want/need when it's the morning, and has only been 12 hours of posts. Especially from me, who is honestly not very analytical.

Right now, I'm taking Chris's lead.

Sheep seems to be putting a lot of pressure, but as of right now I feel that's a good thing & is mostly trying to gauged how people respond.

Rule of 3? Chang/Sultan/Sheep, One scum two town

I was thinking the fact that you responded to a question almost instantly yet only said a single word unprompted was the scummon part. Idk your timezone and I don't like to take too much of a read from activity, but that sorta lurking is a tad curious. I appreciate critical analysis is hard, especially early in the game and day, but trying to just piece ideas together from interactions for yourself is handy, and it's difficult to expect people to engage with you from one word.

If you're Town, I'd really rather you know you can think for yourself rather than being stuck with no clue in endgame. Or potentially following Scum Chris to our demise (something that we all live in fear of).

I mean, hell, I hate to praise someone for thinking good of me, but you managed an original thought on me at the end of this post!

Sheep again looks like he's coaching Abacus here. Not sure he would do that so blatantly in topic but noted

ctesjbuvf posted...

It's a shame I was always around for those hours where red wanted company and then he dies just as I arrive.

MZero, if you're around, what do you think is the right play today?

good timing! i'm working on some stuff. Spoilers I think we should lynch Abacus

Alright, I can't work out Abacus being the only scum left. Though he can still be one of the two, I'm now leaning towards not going after him today.

Let's see, if he's the role thief on Star Wars night he would've moved N1. If we try to assume Role Thief is actually working on Pokemon nights, then for scum to get Sbell's Pokemon role they need to be two left by this point or Sbell is somehow scum, the latter obviously being unlikely.

If you think there's just one scum, it basically has to be MZero being Role Thief / Flavor Cop. If there are two scum left, Abacus is definitely on the table again, but Role Thief and Flavor Cop still needs to exist. The only way I can see Flavor Cop not existing is if HB is scum and scanned Sbell night 2 but claimed to scan Ulti instead, which I also find very unlikely. Since Kirby's roles are confirmed, an Abacus/Kirby team is impossible unless the flavor scan also works on opposite nights. While Chris is a player I know can outplay everyone, he's too close to confirmed town for me to support that. There's nothing technical preventing Abacus / MZero I suppose, but the bussing scenarios there from all the way back to when Lea and Isquen were alive are definitely still weird. MZero can also be scum with Kirby without roles not adding up at least.

Unless I'm missing something here, signs point to MZero right now. While I usually got town vibes from him and most interactions with him, PoE is too strong and I'm not going to use interactions too much since I have little to no idea how people usually anyways. I'll admit I'm struggling to pair Pikachu with a Star Wars character right now, but that can be a lie I suppose.

Ulti was flavor scanned by Arti n2 correct? and that was his only scan he got off before we lynched him day 4.

Then isquen claimed a correct flavor scan on my pokemon character, so even nights there is certainly a flavor scanner for scum.

and we have Hb that claims to be flavor scanner but has been constantly action stolen.

Has anyone else claimed to have their action stolen?

MZero posted...

good timing! i'm working on some stuff. Spoilers I think we should lynch Abacus

Well, despite leaning you, I do look forward to what you're working on. I was thinking Abacus until I couldn't get it to add up.

Obellisk posted...

Ulti was flavor scanned by Arti n2 correct? and that was his only scan he got off before we lynched him day 4.

Then isquen claimed a correct flavor scan on my pokemon character, so even nights there is certainly a flavor scanner for scum.

and we have Hb that claims to be flavor scanner but has been constantly action stolen.

Has anyone else claimed to have their action stolen?

Well, HB has successfully made all his flavor scans though. While a scum HB technically could have made up all three scans there with the price of selling Isquen, they definitely have an actual flavor cop.

No one else has claimed to have actions stolen, no.

Topic 2

Isquen -

Let me update the vibe check with some more intuition:
Scummish:
Plum
Lopen
Lea
Sheep
Corrik

?!:
IGCD
Chris
Kirby
Death

Townish sweet boy who can do no wrong:
Hb
Ben
Sultan

Sir Not-appearing-in-this-theatrical-trailer
Abacus
Red (as usual)
Ulti

Double rule of 3 from Isquen??

Topic 3

Abacus -

That's what I am wondering. After reading the topic it seemed Chris had just asked about the inconsistency, and then went on a tirade against them. I would really like to know, just so that I learn what other people look for. Especially since Ulti is doing the same thing above, after Chris's whole "don't claim" thing (which I'm skeptical about).

Right now I'm heavily suspect of Lea, but that's based on most of the same stuff HB has said. She has attacked anyone who appeared to be an easy target/vulnerable for giving their opinions on the game - for altering reasons (except for one person). Not only that, but from what I can tell, hasn't really done anything except complain how others are playing the game. Which is fine, but just as useless (in my eyes). Like HB said it seems more to stop people from thinking.

My second reason for Lea is very flimsy since she admitted it was a fake claim (I believe), but I feel like she did the fake princess claim to get people scared to throw votes on her just for the "it may be true" aspect.

I'm also suspect of Plum, but that's mainly for being in association of Lea (everytime I see Plum do something, Lea appears & supports them).

Ben, I'm iffy about. The one game I remember with him, I feel as though he was much more focused as scum so I could believe he's town.

That's not how rule of 3 works!! He shades Lea while giving a town read on Ben

Sheep -

I like this post a lot. Basically just goes for three of my highest scumreads rn, and I'm interested to have a look at these Plum/Lea interactions. Town points for Abacus.

I feel like Sheep went out of his way to interact with Abacus quite a bit. After his initial call out he has been quick to give Abacus town cred.

Day 1 Votals
[11] Sheep: Kirby, (Chris), (Ben), plum, (Chris), (Lea), Hb, Death, Chris, JC, IGCD, Ben, Arti/Lopen, Sultan, chang
[3] Ben: (Chris), (Sultan), (Arti/Lopen), Sheep, (Chris), Ulti, ViolentAbacus
[1] Chris: Corrik, (Sultan), (IGCD)
[1] Isquen: (Arti/Lopen), (Lea), MZero, (IGCD)
[1] IGCD: Isquen

Not really sure what to make of this. Scum was all over the place, probably because both lynches were scum. This... doesn't look great for me as a splinter vote!

That's all for day 1

I could maybe see Hb/Abacus gambit if it was only Sheep they sacrificed, but there was really no reason to bury Isquen when he did if he was scum

With no one claiming role stolen N1 when Abacus moved, I can't rule him out of being the thief. In FFXIV mafia I could commute once per game and flavor cop every night except when I used my commute, so it could be a role like that (that was a town role but still)

Of course, I have the bias of knowing I'm town, and everyone else is basically confirmed so Abacus pretty much has to be scum barring some next level shenanigans

*when Abacus didn't move

Of course, Kirby could still be scum too. His watches haven't really contributed much and his targets have been sorta questionable

MZero posted...

With no one claiming role stolen N1 when Abacus moved, I can't rule him out of being the thief. In FFXIV mafia I could commute once per game and flavor cop every night except when I used my commute, so it could be a role like that (that was a town role but still)

Right, but scum team still needs to get the flavor scan from somewhere that is not Abacus N1, so where would that then be

ctesjbuvf posted...

Well, HB has successfully made all his flavor scans though. While a scum HB technically could have made up all three scans there with the price of selling Isquen, they definitely have an actual flavor cop.

No one else has claimed to have actions stolen, no.

so for all we know, there is no role thief and hb and arti both happened to scan ulti on n2. and Isquen claimed the scan instead of hb... and since then hb has just been claiming to be action stolen to protect him and his remaining teammates and also to create confusion, because now we are trying to balance an action Thief into the setup.

Day 2

Isquen -

Abacus arrives in "sweet boy who can do no wrong" today and I affirm I will abide no additional aspersions on their alignment at present. Ahem.

Another scum giving Abacus town points (this time for asking what neighborizer and miller do). I feel like scum would want to keep the mislynch option open for a newer player like Abacus who was getting some heat already for inactivity. Interesting

Not a ton from Day 2. Abacus mostly called Ben and Lea scum most of the day, so if he is scum he was bussing early and often

ctesjbuvf posted...

Right, but scum team still needs to get the flavor scan from somewhere that is not Abacus N1, so where would that then be

Flavor scan would be even nights, as they got SBell's Pokemon not his Star Wars character

Also I think there's two scum left, or at least two anti-town

Obellisk posted...

so for all we know, there is no role thief and hb and arti both happened to scan ulti on n2. and Isquen claimed the scan instead of hb... and since then hb has just been claiming to be action stolen to protect him and his remaining teammates and also to create confusion, because now we are trying to balance an action Thief into the setup.

There can be no role thief if HB is scum yes and he would've scanned you on N2 or N4. But it'd have to be one hell of a game for HB if he is.

MZero posted...

Flavor scan would be even nights, as they got SBell's Pokemon not his Star Wars character

Yeah, but if you believe as you say, this still requires Abacus to very lucky not to be tracked the one night he doesn't use it and I don't see why he wouldn't then if he could.