Board 8 > Discussing Mafia Topic 5: Dawn of a New Day

(+) Yeah! (+)

Ah. I suppose Sbell and Mzero were not on Lopen either

So I take that back! Not all scum have to be on Lopen

IGCD important question am I scum or just a bad king.

I just can't believe the majority of the game is going "Lopen shot crescent because of stupid reasons oh well lol"

Everyone being on Lopen yesterday and nobody practically being against Lopen today is a strong signal

For the record I like Scare actually trying to figure this out. I think it would be really easy for Scum to slide into a no king here

masterplum posted...

I just can't believe the majority of the game is going "Lopen shot crescent because of stupid reasons oh well lol"

Everyone being on Lopen yesterday and nobody practically being against Lopen today is a strong signal

I'm not giving lopen a pass here.

Observation: Both Sbell and IGCD are gunning for Han, yet both are campaigning against each other with no support coming in for either party. I am convinced that if one is scum, then the other is town (assuming that they're not both town, which is a possibility). It could be a bus, but it just seems way more convenient to be unified on a front to kill Han or jump on the Death train (unless Lopen is scum).

So if at any point in the game, if one flips scum, I'd bet the other has to be town.

Obellisk posted...

too much of your thought process revolves around you being the person scum fears.

If Chris were in a game and you didn't include his existence in analysis of Scum actions, you would be at fault.

Fastbreak posted...

You have my word as the guy who has played with Kirby that Kirby is town. If you can remember that after my potential death and spread it around, it would be appreciated. But yeah he is not new to the game

This was also said directly to Ulti who responded he noted it and asked to be pointed to it in future days if it came up.

Han (I think it was him) mentioned Ben could be a kill from a fearful team with Kirby. I think especially it being a combo of Ben and Ulti would be terrible for a Kirby team.

So on the off chance Chang ends up being scum I don't think Kirby ever is.

Ben being town, as was pointed out he is a townhunter/clearer makes me want to leave Kirby alone also

I've wavered on Kirby a lot. Like, post 189 reads as logical and thoughtful which implies Town but other times he is just not using critical thought, especially hopping along with IGCD at the beginning of this day. I think why I don't feel good is that he's shown that he very clearly can explain things and has rational thought, but I feel like I don't see it half the time.

Lopen posted...

but it is such a strong scum play to pretend to not be interested in the game anymore.

No it isn't. Especially with someone like you as King.

TidusOfTheX posted...

Han topic 2: a whole lot of it was just pretty much asking for king and randomly saying that he suspects someone or thinks someone is town

Han: "Here is who I think is Scum, and here is who looks like Town"
Tidus: "Trying to solve the game? Must be Scum."

ScareChan posted...

I really think all 4 scum are on Lopen, at worst it's 3+Plum

I'm not going to find it but I did say yesterday that Lopen should have lynched someone who voted him and I stand behind that.

I feel more comfortable with the amount of heat on me that I don't need to be King and I trust Scare with it.

I would like to elect a King much sooner than we did yesterday.

Also, does anyone have votals for King d1 offhand that include who didn't vote for a King?

The ones I posted in my analysis were the ones Death gave us, so it should be every one and MZero just didnt vote

Thank you.

For the record, those votals are technically wrong as Death I believe ended up on nobody, not that it matters.

If Lopen/Me is Town/Town, then Scum's decision to choose one over the other depends on what they expect either of us to do. I would guess I was expected to lynch SBell yesterday? Does that line up with people's perspectives?

That sounds right

Also, point on Tidus - I think I was the only person yesterday who said I suspected him at all, so this attack from him feels a little defensive.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Also, point on Tidus - I think I was the only person yesterday who said I suspected him at all, so this attack from him feels a little defensive.

I dunno about the defensive part, but I think yeah, Tidus was off the table for scum for the most part of D1. I recall Ben and I think Crescent saying Tidus was very likely town, at least.

Scare, how do you feel about the King vote so far? Any candidates you're leaning on?

Kirby321 posted...

Updated Votals
[2] Death - Death, plum
[2] Han - Han, Scare
[1] Kirby - Kirby
[1] Sbell - Sbell
[1] IGCD - IGCD

We uh... really need to agree on a consensus here. I mean I guess No Lynch is an option? Probably not a good one, though. I value having a King more than being King, so I'm willing to drop out of the ring. But do we have any other candidates?

Sbell and IGCD are both wanting to lynch Han so not them

Death is no longer tunneling Lopen, but I forget who else he is open to. Not thrilled with this one either, but at least better than the other two

Kirby321 posted...

I dunno about the defensive part, but I think yeah, Tidus was off the table for scum for the most part of D1. I recall Ben and I think Crescent saying Tidus was very likely town, at least.

I thought his early D1 was a little over-the-top whereas everyone else thought he was just very obviously hinting that he had power. But even I thought he looked Town at end of day.

Kirby, why do you occasionally make posts that imply that you aren't using much thought, but then have many others where it does seem like you're thinking through things?

ScareChan posted...

Sbell and IGCD are both wanting to lynch Han so not them

Death is no longer tunneling Lopen, but I forget who else he is open to. Not thrilled with this one either, but at least better than the other two

Gotcha. For some reason I thought you didn't vote yet, which is why I asked, but I just realized you voted for Han.

I still don't trust Han, even if I'm leaning toward town for him right now, but I'm willing to vote for you as King and so is Han. Would you be willing to take up the mantle of King, or would you rather someone else take the charge?

Lopen posted...

IGCD important question am I scum or just a bad king.

I'd say just a bad king. You wanting me to have fun and actually try and get something out of me leads me to believe you're town because I am usually one of the easiest mislynches in game, especially when I don't do much of anything. Why would scum try and ruin that?

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Thank you.

For the record, those votals are technically wrong as Death I believe ended up on nobody, not that it matters.

If Lopen/Me is Town/Town, then Scum's decision to choose one over the other depends on what they expect either of us to do. I would guess I was expected to lynch SBell yesterday? Does that line up with people's perspectives?

I think so.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Scum
Han
Kirby321
Lopen
Mzero

Ranagrande
changmas
htaeD
Sbell
Scare

Plum
Red
Sultan
Tidus
Town

IfGodCouldDie posted...

You wanting me to have fun and actually try and get something out of me leads me to believe you're town

Explain.

Lopen posted...

Explain.

The list was thrown up at random to see if anyone would even comment on it, no one did.

Hey IGCD your vote would look really good on me :)

... I buy it.

Kirby321 posted...

Gotcha. For some reason I thought you didn't vote yet, which is why I asked, but I just realized you voted for Han.

I still don't trust Han, even if I'm leaning toward town for him right now, but I'm willing to vote for you as King and so is Han. Would you be willing to take up the mantle of King, or would you rather someone else take the charge?

I don't have a grand plan to actively campaign for king, but if I'm king I won't just throw it away or anything

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Hey IGCD your vote would look really good on me :)

Ok?

Fastbreak posted...

but if I'm king I won't just throw it away or anything

well enough people certainly thought that of lopen and here we are.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I thought his early D1 was a little over-the-top whereas everyone else thought he was just very obviously hinting that he had power. But even I thought he looked Town at end of day.

Kirby, why do you occasionally make posts that imply that you aren't using much thought, but then have many others where it does seem like you're thinking through things?

Could you elaborate? If you're referring to the post you quoted, I'm just confirming information. Maybe that just comes off as fluff? I certainly appreciated when Leafeon (who I presume is Red) confirmed that I wasn't crazy about Ulti making that spoiler tag post. Certainly saves time on having to go back and reread (though in the case of Ulti I knew exactly what to look for and where so it didn't take me long to Ctrl + F and link the post)

If you're specifically talking about the "defensive" comment, it's because I frankly didn't consider that much at all until you brought it up. So if it seems like I'm not using much thought... that's probably because I'm not using much thought lol
As much as I'd like to think I'm smart, I recognize that I have moments of sheer idiocy, both in this game and IRL. I'm sure Ben could affirm that if he wasn't, you know, dead.

But I need to look at Tidus again, really, hence why I wanted to elaborate that I am agreeing with you on the D1 stuff and not that Tidus is acting defensively. The latter is not something I want to commit to just yet, not until I review the facts, and I wanted to make that clear before my post gets misconstrued. However, I recognize that Scare's breakdown of Tidus's post gives reason for suspicion; I'm just having some trouble understanding some of the logic since I don't quite remember plum's presence all that much yesterday.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Hey IGCD your vote would look really good on me :)

I'm not interested in anyone being King other than myself. If I have to break a tie I will because I won't be the reason for a no lynch but the leading candidates or their supporters will have to convince me and I'll go with the best choice I can at the time.

Kirby321 posted...

Could you elaborate? If you're referring to the post you quoted, I'm just confirming information. Maybe that just comes off as fluff? I certainly appreciated when Leafeon (who I presume is Red) confirmed that I wasn't crazy about Ulti making that spoiler tag post. Certainly saves time on having to go back and reread (though in the case of Ulti I knew exactly what to look for and where so it didn't take me long to Ctrl + F and link the post)

If you're specifically talking about the "defensive" comment, it's because I frankly didn't consider that much at all until you brought it up. So if it seems like I'm not using much thought... that's probably because I'm not using much thought lol
As much as I'd like to think I'm smart, I recognize that I have moments of sheer idiocy, both in this game and IRL. I'm sure Ben could affirm that if he wasn't, you know, dead.

But I need to look at Tidus again, really, hence why I wanted to elaborate that I am agreeing with you on the D1 stuff and not that Tidus is acting defensively. The latter is not something I want to commit to just yet, not until I review the facts, and I wanted to make that clear before my post gets misconstrued. However, I recognize that Scare's breakdown of Tidus's post gives reason for suspicion; I'm just having some trouble understanding some of the logic since I don't quite remember plum's presence all that much yesterday.

I mean, it's more the IGCD just coming in like "kill Han" and you being like "I tend to agree" like it's not a rational stance and there's been other posts, but I'd have to go hunt them and I don't want to do that right now.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Ok?

So you should vote me for King.

The votal logic from Scare is nice. But I worry that it crumbles if I start thinking that scum might not want to fully load up on one King.
Plus if one of their members is Mzero or Rana, they might not have been able to pull of the Han train anyway.

I also have to wonder if scum would kill Ulti, since that makes the clean spotlight on Han brighter.

That said, Han hasnt done that much that makes me outright suspect him either.. Bad read on me notwithstanding.

Oh IGCD
You should vote for me
If you vote for Bell
It'll all turn out well
Now don't you see
It's not you, it's we
Be my right hand
it could all be grand.

Any King who wants to let Town democratically decide lynch doesn't deserve to be King.

Any King who has already decided who they will lynch and means it doesn't deserve to be King.

Any King who promises games and shit doesn't deserve to be King.

The point of Kingmaker is to pick someone who is going to do something with the time, push people, and generate meaningful content.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I mean, it's more the IGCD just coming in like "kill Han" and you being like "I tend to agree" like it's not a rational stance and there's been other posts, but I'd have to go hunt them and I don't want to do that right now.

Oh that one should be obvious. Have I not beaten you over the head enough times with the "why are you alive if you said you would be dead N1" reasoning? Since you didn't die last night, my initial suspicion was on you, hence why I agreed with IGCD at the time, right at the start of the day.
(But also your definition of... rational/logical seems to depend entirely on how it portrays. Don't think it was lost on me that you singled out post #189 from me as logical because I said you were town >_>)

Now, if my crackpot theory of why Ulti was targeted by the Mafia was correct, then it makes sense why you were spared if you are truly town. I'm not gonna say my theory is airtight, but it's an explanation for why Ulti was singled out, and it works very well with a scenario where scum is trying to frame you. So that's why I'm leaning town so far on you, Han. I will openly admit that my reasoning there is flimsy, but it's something to believe in, at least.

Any King who promises games and s*** doesn't deserve to be King.

So what were the Pitgames ?

I might Kill Sbell if given King, he comes off as someone trying to persuade me with fun because I've claimed thats why I feel like Lopen is town. It doesn't feel genuine.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Any King who wants to let Town democratically decide lynch doesn't deserve to be King.

Any King who has already decided who they will lynch and means it doesn't deserve to be King.

Any King who promises games and shit doesn't deserve to be King.

The point of Kingmaker is to pick someone who is going to do something with the time, push people, and generate meaningful content.

Han you tried to buy votes with cat rp >_>

IfGodCouldDie posted...

I might Kill Sbell if given King, he comes off as someone trying to persuade me with fun because I've claimed thats why I feel like Lopen is town. It doesn't feel genuine.

F
U
N

Yeah pretty sure Han falls into his own NO KING SPECIFICATIONS

The point of kingmaker is to elect someone that isn't scum so that they will kill scum.

Kirby321 posted...

Oh that one should be obvious. Have I not beaten you over the head enough times with the "why are you alive if you said you would be dead N1" reasoning?

Exactly this. That isn't rational reasoning. I said I would be dead N1, and I'm not, therefore I'm suspicious? Before even getting into the WIFOM of the situation, there's just not really any depth to that.

htaeD posted...

So what were the Pitgames ?

They weren't games. It was "Ulti and Ben and Crescent, one of you three is getting lynched. It's your job to convince me which one."

Forces the players to push suspicion onto a small group of targets for the purpose of survival. I don't remember what the five or so I had planned to toss in was offhand, but if you're classifying my plan as "games", then you probably wouldn't recognize the difference between Socratic debate and Monopoly.

Fastbreak posted...

Han you tried to buy votes with cat rp >_>

it worked didn't it

I think it would at least be better
If everyone wants a King
To nominate their top candidates perhaps?
Excluding yourself

Granted I dont exactly trust anyone perfectly, so I am more going with general expectations.
But I think Scare or Red would be the most sensible Kings. Changmas I guess works too, to round a top3

Han might not want to do games anymore, but I also like being alive, so thats a no go for me.

Most effective king puts fear in everyone.

All these plans suck.

I reread my reign and the start of today btw.

Feel worse about
Death - He rushed King candidacy today on low hanging fruit. Also insists that so many people were saying Crescent was town but it really wasn't that many people on reread. Feelings on me don't feel organic, seem to be based on giving off an aura that he's town rather than trying to digest my motives as a player.
Sbell - Similar to Death, notable in that he didn't make any real push for Crescent being town yesterday. It was mostly Death + Ben (and Ulti when I pushed him, but Ulti didn't stick as hard to it as Death + Ben). Don't like how he went for an early vote on basically no platform worth mentioning at all and one that is basically identical to Death's (suspects me, but open to discussion, should just vote Death in that case)-- think scum might be getting wise that early candidates have power by default seeing how yesterday's voting went.
Tidus - Did want me dead yesterday, kinda backing off it today, then starting to go back to it after I'm saying it's more suspicious for people to not be suspicious of me. Starting to make dumb arguments that don't make sense about my reign. I'm starting to suspect he's scum and being coached with a basic playbook of "focus on telegraphing your power role so you have less avenues to screw up and get caught." Or maybe he thought of it himself? I'm not sure who fits on a team that is coaching Tidus-- is Death good and helpful enough to do that? Probably? Death+Tidus scumteam I would buy as possible.
Sultan - I feel like town Sultan is less measured than this-- he's making more sense than I'd like. He was also calling Crescent scummy a lot yesterday for not answering my questions, but today he's saying she was town and weighing whether I was town lynching her to make a point. Claims to "need to read more on me"-- I should be the last player in the game that needs to be read into more at this point.
MZero - Don't think his justification for thinking I'm town makes sense. I was telegraphing lynching him tomorrow yesterday-- if anything if I'm scum trying to lay out Crescent -> Mzero as a lynch roadmap makes more sense for me as scum. Lynching MZero yesterday is a patently inferior move to make as scum.
Rana - put more effort in Psych. He did draw power in Psych though. My theory is scum or vanilla.

Feel better about
red13n - he did play along early. He only really stopped caring to play along after Crescent sidetracked everything. To play along with MY game of all people, seems very pro town.
masterplum - has consistently suspected me yesterday into even today. I respect that. It would be easy enough to run it back but he came into the reign suspicious. Crescent in dead town chat last game basically drove into my head that plum tends to play overly paranoid as town, and it seems like suspecting me would fall in line with that. Much easier to backpedal and call me dumb town at this point if paranoia is faked.

Scum
Death
MZero
Sultan
Tidus

???
Han - very conceited play, seems to want to get king votes just to survive mostly which fits a town or scum agenda alike-- probably also because he wants to prove he'd be better at it than me. But also seems to be scumhunting.
Sbell - I had a town lean on him day 1 but I'm doubting based on previous assessment. I also don't like how he asked me to encourage voting for scum and cast no vote for scum when I did so.
Rana - uninteresting town role or scum. Probably harmless to lynch by default but I wouldn't at this point. Think we have enough data on others to test.

Town
Scare (easy for him to just not do anything yesterday and let day be worthless. Has been presenting some good thoughts.)
red13n (despite claims of Disneyland he's been relatively active today and has been helping the game along even when it is likely difficult for him to do so)
chang (had town lean yesterday, and claim seems what a town vig would do)
Kirby (seems to be analyzing the game, haven't seen anything super odd yet which I think would have happened by now if scum)
plum (explained above)
IGCD (have read him town all game, seems real, right down to that list being pulled out of his ass)

I still kinda like the "make IGCD king to pump him up" strategy since imo he's town and it makes him more useful long term but he also wants to lynch Han which I'm not convinced is a great play at the moment, better targets on board.

htaeD posted...

But I think Scare or Red would be the most sensible Kings.

I cant be king today work will make me inactive at the busiest times.

So what I'm looking for from a king

Highly likely to lynch someone on my scum list
Highly unlikely to lynch someone on my town list
Running on a better platform than "let's vote democratically!"

Anyone who can claim these things can have my vote for today.

Something is telling me stay the hell away from voting Han king

To be fair I actually like you yesterday Lopen until you openly said im lynching someone I think might be town and that threw me

Everyone might be town because it's day 1.

By the time I'd lynched her I had her scum percentage at higher than random chance and thought she would be super disruptive to leave alive as scum. That was good enough for me.

If I'm not mistaken, Death is a common denominator between Lopen and Han's scumlists, right? Possibly Tidus and Sultan, too, but Han has definitely been set on Death since the start of the day. Just trying to think what that could mean if any of Lopen, Han, or Death are scum...

As for my top 3 for King, I'd say changmas for sure, followed by Scare. ... And then I guess in a very distant third would be Han, just for lack of good options >_> Though it seems like Red is giving everyone a good impression. I don't remember much from Red other than initially voting for Scare and then being the hammer vote for Lopen's kingship.