Board 8 > Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXIII: Day 95 (RULE CHANGE) [smfffc]

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andylt
10/14/21 2:38:32 PM
#352:


MartinFF7 posted...
Phantom Train
Ultros
Necron
Snow (Cat)
Snow (FF13)
Snow (FF7)
Steiner
Elena
Exdeath
Jack Garland
10 Narshe Moogles

Only 5 more to go
Hey wait I just realised you forgot Belle!

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GuessMyUserName
10/14/21 2:41:18 PM
#353:


GuessMyUserName posted...
I have converted XXIII Day 61+ save histories into save priorities and re-ran the simulation with a fuller list of participants

https://gmun.moe/savemy/predix.html

... Aeris has been dethroned and Yuna has fallen to 4th

originally I got Aeris > Kefka > Freya > Yuna > Agrias, but I noticed lefty was saving randomly since he only has his Cecil priority

adjusted lefty to Cecil > Kefka > Agrias priorities (random the remaining), and that resulted in put nail in Kefka > Aeris, as well as swapping Agrias/Freya around Yuna
updated again to show savecounts

a few runs have had Aggy/Yuna/Freya juggle around to each different placement, but always ending in Kefka > Aeris

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KommunistKoala
10/14/21 2:43:17 PM
#354:


is there no way to change our fate

perhaps with the power of the monado...

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does anyone even read this
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MartinFF7
10/14/21 2:44:51 PM
#355:


Alright everybody pack it in, the bot has declared the result, the science is settled

....except Day 98 lasting almost 100 minutes instead of 60.5 (or fewer), frankly...

andylt posted...
Hey wait I just realised you forgot Belle!

Belle is too good for this contest tbh.
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andylt
10/14/21 2:45:09 PM
#356:


So Kefka is now the choice of Order? And everyone else is chaos? Sure, why not. Let's dethrone this bot once and for all!

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Esuriat
10/14/21 2:45:34 PM
#357:


An all kid top 5 introduces the prospect that Marche could once again plunge the contest into oblivion.

He got wind that his work wasn't finished.

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Essy
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LiquidOshawott
10/14/21 2:47:43 PM
#358:


Agrias moved to third

thats a win in my books maybe

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Chaeix
10/14/21 2:47:45 PM
#359:


Esuriat posted...
An all kid top 5 introduces the prospect that Marche could once again plunge the contest into oblivion.

He got wind that his work wasn't finished.
we should get doned into the contest and then marche can appropriately cut him at final 5

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GuessMyUserName
10/14/21 2:53:54 PM
#360:


updated again with some spacing/formatting and making timestamps & safe alerts clearer

Kefka v Aeris very much is a toss-up, if you look at the bottom of the predix they both always meet up at the ~150 save cutoff I placed for finals at the same time and it's just a matter of save order deciding the winner

the current uploaded predix for the formatting indeed has Aeris > Kefka now (sry VI, Agrias back to 4th to Yuna jumping back)

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LiquidOshawott
10/14/21 2:59:44 PM
#361:


What happens if you up the save count to get more accurate data for the final?

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GuessMyUserName
10/14/21 3:00:12 PM
#362:


worth noting however I do not have a Goat Factor for semi-finals which very much does exist in reality

I suppose what I could do during the semis is mark the underdog at the time of the first safe then make a 75% chance of the confirmed finalist's #1 priorities savers to vote the underdog if they get a save after that point, rather than their actual #2 priority

... I'm likely too lazy for this

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andylt
10/14/21 3:01:06 PM
#363:


If the top 3 is Aeris Yuna Kefka idk who the goat would even be. Or would people try to snipe out Aeris as she's the presumed winner hmm

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GuessMyUserName
10/14/21 3:15:17 PM
#364:


hmmm let's see the finals votals historically....



alright I think I could aim for 350 champion votes, I'll try that

*tests*

10 simulations, 8 Aeris 2 Kefka.......... however, 2 of these simulations actually had Yuna beat Kefka for his finalist slot.

Last simulation updated to the online page. Kefka is a few saves behind, but not much (7). I do not however have saves capping out at 10 per user and the finals last for ~20 hours so we're definitely getting over our individual limits... not that it should really change much since everybody's saving at their normal rates throughout. Although I guess it's over-performing characters with faster savers (Kefka has me and lefty... and technically Martin although I doubt Martin actually saves Kefka in a finals against Aeris tbh)

... 350-350 close match kefka finals eh..... that sounds a lot like Kefka v Tidus he lost as well

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