Current Events > You hit an enemy twice. At least one of the hits is a critical hit.

(+) Yeah! (+)

Assuming a 50% critical hit chance, what is the probability that both hits are critical hits?

Isn't it something like 33%?

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50%? One crit is guaranteed, so we are just looking at the chance the other hit was a crit as well is what I was thinking.

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uwnim posted...

50%? One crit is guaranteed, so we are just looking at the chance the other hit was a crit as well is what I was thinking.

this makes sense intuitively, but it's been a long time since I've done that kind of math

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this is the monty hall problem bait

If the first was a crit then 100%

In Breath of Fire 2 and Pokemon RBG

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Doesn't matter. If the enemy survived, I haven't level grinded enough.

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I also think 50%. We've established that 1 of 2 outcomes is a a success, therefore the probability of the entire set being a success is just the probability of one instance being a success; 50%.

Unless I'm misunderstanding the question. If it's not a given rule that 1 hit of the set is a critical and we're just describing a set that contains at least one critical to be confusing. In which case it's just a simple probability, .5 x .5, or 25%.

Edit again: nevermind it is just a monty hall problem.

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We need more info. It depends on how the guaranteed crit is going to be triggered. Does it trigger only if the first hit doesn't crit? Does it give both hits a 50% chance of using either the 100% or the 50% crit rate, and THEN guarantee 100% on the second hit if the first doesn't crit?

Needs more information.

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Anthony_Rizzo posted...

this is the monty hall problem bait

This
But it's poorly worded so there are multiple answers

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We have 4 different possibilities

NC NC
C NC
NC C
C C

NC NC has been taken away, so now we have 3 different possibilities.

C NC
NC C
C C

It's 33%

Wait no forgot to calculate for 50%

Fuck this question is poorly worded

It's 66%

Anthony_Rizzo posted...

We have 4 different possibilities

NC NC
C NC
NC C
C C

NC NC has been taken away, so now we have 3 different possibilities.

C NC
NC C
C C

It's 33%

this

Anthony_Rizzo posted...

Wait no forgot to calculate for 50%

Fuck this question is poorly worded

It's 66%

what? you got it right the first time >_>

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Is the target a goat?

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Choco posted...

this

what? you got it right the first time >_>

No because of the 50% crit stipulation

There's four possibilities here.

Neither crits.
First attack crits, Second doesn't.
Second attack crits, first doesn't.
Both crit.

First option is out, because one crit is guaranteed.

So its 33%.


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uwnim posted...

50%? One crit is guaranteed, so we are just looking at the chance the other hit was a crit as well is what I was thinking.

this would be if it was guaranteed that the first is a crit (or if it was guaranteed that the second one is a crit)

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25%

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Xavier_On_High posted...

Is the target a goat?

The target is a Gogoat

Its a 100% chance that you can probably maybe hit a critical hit

.50 * .50 = .25

25% >_>

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It doesn't matter. It is all about consistency.

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50% either it does or it doesn't.

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NeonOctopus posted...

.50 * .50 = .25

25% >_>

did you not read the title

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The enemy is a planet and the crit is a room outside.

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Do you know the law of probability?

In 2 turns it is 50%

But it could be 0.

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Theres a 100% chance you will try and hit again

These always twist my melon

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The answer is nothing. It could take 1 turn, 5 turns, or 10 turns.

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Choco posted...

did you not read the title

Not really lol

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Choco posted...

this would be if it was guaranteed that the first is a crit (or if it was guaranteed that the second one is a crit)

Not seeing how that is any different. The moment that one has been confirmed to be a crit, then some observer knows and from that perspective there are only two possibilities.

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What game is this that a crit is 50%?
Sounds op.

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PMarth2002 posted...

There's four possibilities here.

Neither crits.
First attack crits, Second doesn't.
Second attack crits, first doesn't.
Both crit.

First option is out, because one crit is guaranteed.

So its 33%.

This.

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0% if I need both to crit, 100% if it's the enemy doing the attacks.

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The probability of a double crit doesn't change. It's still a 25% chance of a double hit.

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33%

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Steve Nick posted...

The probability of a double crit doesn't change. It's still a 25% chance of a double hit.

What happens the other 75%?

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Son, if I'm fixing to hit ya, every hit gonna be a critical hit. You best believe.

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0% chance because im never lucky. I didnt get the first hypothetical critical either. In fact, I had a 99% chance to hit and I still missed both shots.

It's 50, right?

You're guaranteed one crit

2/2 * 1/2 is 2/4 if the first hit is crit
1/2 * 2/2 if the second hit is crit

50% either way

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edit: im megadumb
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C C
C N
N C
N N

NN is not possible

So 1/3

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classic 1/3 probability problem, but with crit hits instead of boys and girls at birth.

The best correct answer is indeed 1/3

0% if it's Xcom

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