Board 8 > Stock Topic 18

(+) Yeah! (+)

After the most wild week in stock history (maybe?), lets see what the future holds.

There was a pretty wild week in 1929
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https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l87d25/amc_short_squeeze_is_absolutely_possible_to_and/

I agree strongly with all of the points made here.

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I got 25 shares of AMC this morning minutes before Robinhood started locking down. I wanted to get another 70 or so, but them's the breaks! Guess I'm already in... 25 times more than they wanted me to be. Monday should be exciting one way or the other.

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I didn't have quite enough to get another GME share this morning, so I used my leftovers to buy shares of AMC. Not regretting it at all.

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I wish I could get someone on the phone from Fidelity and see if they could fast track my transfer from RH for me. Probably a pipe dream with it being the weekend now.

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I saw a thread on reddit about getting around the Robin Hood limitations via contracts:
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l82y7u/how_to_buy_gme_above_broker_limits/

I don't have enough knowledge to know if this is a good idea or if you are overpaying this way, but it makes it sound like it's an opportunity for people who still have resources tied up in RH to stay in on the action without waiting.

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100 shares of GME is $32,500 though. That's the amount of shares you get for exercising one call option and so it's the minimum you can buy that way.

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so probably not for everyone then =P

Definitely not for me. Only possible for me for AMC at sub 10 values which hopefully wont be happening again for awhile.

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It's the weekend now, though. Even if that works, won't it be locked up until Monday morning, at which point prices could be wildly different?

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Alright y'all let me know what is low enough to buy into come Monday.

Xiahou Shake posted...

It's the weekend now, though. Even if that works, won't it be locked up until Monday morning, at which point prices could be wildly different?

Well hopefully by monday they will allow people to spend their own money to buy stocks they want to buy and it wont be necessary to use that technique.

smh

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PerfectChaosZ posted...

Alright y'all let me know what is low enough to buy into come Monday.

GME obviously!!!

*diamond emoji hand emoji*

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Forceful_Dragon posted...

Well hopefully by monday they will allow people to spend their own money to buy stocks they want to buy and it wont be necessary to use that technique.

How dare you propose such a radical idea


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PerfectChaosZ posted...

Alright y'all let me know what is low enough to buy into come Monday.

The squeeze starts mid Monday, but could last all week. Here, this explains it in very basic terms for new investors.



I would personally buy as early as you can Monday. Will probably rally hard pre-market. Most brokers allow people to buy pre-market, and often times new investors don't realize that. Just put the expiration on your buy order at +EXT instead of Day. Ameritrade allows you to buy as early as 7 a.m., but it's different for different platforms.

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StartTheMachine posted...

The squeeze starts mid Monday, but could last all week. Here, this explains it in very basic terms for new investors.



I would personally buy as early as you can Monday. Will probably rally hard pre-market. Most brokers allow people to buy pre-market, and often times new investors don't realize that. Just put the expiration on your buy order at +EXT instead of Day. Ameritrade allows you to buy as early as 7 a.m., but it's different for different platforms.

I'm confused about this. Short shares don't expire. Do they mean short calls?

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red sox 777 posted...

I'm confused about this. Short shares don't expire. Do they mean short calls?

There aren't set dates where you're forced to cover a short position when a stock goes up?

I don't know much about this stuff, but that's what I thought.

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I really gotta push back on these timelines - AMC was supposed to blow up earlier this week, then Friday, and then it got pushed to Monday, Now "it could take all week, so keep holding"

It's critical to get out of this going into the squeeze or as the squeeze happens. If the squeeze occurs and you don't get out, and you don't realize you need to get out, you'll be headed for big losses as the collapse happens. If a squeeze even happens.

Vague timelines of how to long to hold this are very dangerous. At the very least you should all be thinking about safely guaranteeing your principal, if you haven't done so already.

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That doesn't apply too much to the *true visionaries* who got in at super low prices, but most of us that bought above $8 or even closer to $20 need to be very careful. If you bought Gamestop in the $30-100 range you should be a bit cautious, if you bought in the $80-250 range you should be very careful, if you bought above $250 you need to be real fuckin careful because you could end up in real bad shape.

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There are no specified end dates to short stock positions. Not really sure what that message is talking about.

From my understanding, there are two major reasons that more pressure is put on short positions to close-out as the stock price rises: 1) the short-seller has to pay interest based on the current stock price; 2) the higher the stock price, the more collateral is required from the short-seller to not get automatically margin called.

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CoolCly posted...

I really gotta push back on these timelines - AMC was supposed to blow up earlier this week, then Friday, and then it got pushed to Monday, Now "it could take all week, so keep holding"

It's critical to get out of this going into the squeeze or as the squeeze happens. If the squeeze occurs and you don't get out, and you don't realize you need to get out, you'll be headed for big losses as the collapse happens. If a squeeze even happens.

Vague timelines of how to long to hold this are very dangerous. At the very least you should all be thinking about safely guaranteeing your principal, if you haven't done so already.

I somewhat agree, but there are so many good reasons to be bullish here. Especially since various brokers limiting buy orders will absolutely cause a revolt, and those investors coming back in will also rally these stocks hard. And in general browsing WSB, sentiment seems strongest for AMC now. I'm hoping for it to go parabolic Monday (I'll start setting stop limits if it goes over 20, and fully close my position if it hits near 25) and get out personally, but I'll likely get back in with a 1000 shares long at some point and see what happens.

Also I guess I was wrong and there's no forced date to cover, so long as those in the short position can pay their margin interest?

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/shortsaleclosed.asp

Here I thought I understood short squeezes somewhat decently.

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https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/AMC/short-interest/

Okay so this information is public, and the days to cover is 0.6. It's right there. That image I posted is at least partially correct, no? How would this not rocket the stock?

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StartTheMachine posted...

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/AMC/short-interest/

Okay so this information is public, and the days to cover is 0.6. It's right there. That image I posted is at least partially correct, no? How would this not rocket the stock?

look at the date. the public short records are released twice a month.

I think there are non public daily ones though

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Colegreen_c12 posted...

look at the date. the public short records are released twice a month.

I think there are non public daily ones though

Oh, I was assuming that date was simply the date they opened their short position?

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StartTheMachine posted...

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/AMC/short-interest/

Okay so this information is public, and the days to cover is 0.6. It's right there. That image I posted is at least partially correct, no? How would this not rocket the stock?

E: Scroll down a bit to see all their short positions and the days to cover. Seems like 2 days from now is when the biggest percentage of short positions are forced to cover (I assume this means 2 trading days and the weekend doesn't count?). So so so many shares, that rocket could be nuts.

Days to cover doesn't mean that. It means given the average trading volume per day, it would take 0.6 days for all the shorts to cover. That's actually quite a low number for it, which doesn't inspire a lot of confidence for the squeeze.

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Okay, yeah that message was probably written by someone who is misunderstanding days to cover.

If you look at the 1/15/2021 line you can see that the volume of shares sold short was 44,670,000. The average daily trading volume at the time was probably around 74.5M. So it would take an average of 0.6 days to cover the short positions.

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StartTheMachine posted...

Oh, I was assuming that date was simply the date they opened their short position?

Nope, if you look its reported twice a month every month.

red sox 777 posted...

Days to cover doesn't mean that. It means given the average trading volume per day, it would take 0.6 days for all the shorts to cover. That's actually quite a low number for it, which doesn't inspire a lot of confidence for the squeeze.

This exactly. They could easily close all their shorts in .6 days (will actually be faster since if they all start covering the volume is going to go up for that day).

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Welp, I await to hear the take from investing genius Lopen!

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https://youtu.be/MAqxQe0l4g0

Regarding the actions of brokers recently, this video is very interesting. I've only watched 15 minutes of it so far, but it sounds like a lot of what was going on is more complicated than the narrative of it just being Robinhood's fault. Like their reputation is already tarnished forever, but a lot of it has do with how clearing firms operate.

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CoolCly posted...

That doesn't apply too much to the *true visionaries* who got in at super low prices, but most of us that bought above $8 or even closer to $20 need to be very careful. If you bought Gamestop in the $30-100 range you should be a bit cautious, if you bought in the $80-250 range you should be very careful, if you bought above $250 you need to be real fuckin careful because you could end up in real bad shape.

Everyone should be careful, unless you've already cashed out a lot. If you are a true visionary and haven't cashed out yet you probably have quite a lot of money at stake in which case you should be even more careful I think. Sure, if it crashes to $20 you still have a big profit....but you forewent a much bigger one.

What I'm looking for more than price is volume. Volume paired with a downward movement would be the telltale sign of long stockholders capitulating. If you look at the chart for the last week, it hasn't happened once yet. High volume has been correlated with rises, and low volume with declines.

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Anyway, I'm still very bullish, at least for Monday mostly because of this reddit post I mentioned earlier, which I don't think has any misinformation.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l87d25/amc_short_squeeze_is_absolutely_possible_to_and/

"If you look at https://iborrowdesk.com/report/amc and https://fintel.io/ss/us/amc The shares available to short has gone down significantly. JUST 4 days ago the short availability was at 7 million and now this morning it went all the way down to 500(0 on fintel)."

I'll ask the AVCT discord their thoughts tomorrow. Some of those guys have been trading 20+ years and are smarter than anyone here.

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Keep me posted

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StartTheMachine posted...

Anyway, I'm still very bullish, at least for Monday mostly because of this reddit post I mentioned earlier, which I don't think has any misinformation

just to clarify i'm not saying i think a short squeeze is impossible for amc. I was just stating that earlier thing you linked to fundamentally misunderstood how shorting works lol.

Anyways about that reddit post its not wrong so much as exaggerating. Looking at https://iborrowdesk.com/report/amc there's 1,000,000 available the last check-in which was yesterday. There's no reports on either sites from today so its still vague. Basically its too hard to get clear accurate information about shorts to be sure of anything.

The post is also misleading because he says the available shorts have gone down since a few days ago which is true. there were 3.3 million 3 days ago and 7.5 million 5 days ago but there multiple periods in the last month with sub 500k available. It's not like being this low is new for amc, it most likely just means there are less shares available to borrow in general.

Basically I wouldn't be surprised if there is a short squeeze (although it would be mostly artificial due to people intentionally trying to short squeeze stuff) but amc's situation doesn't strike me as that uncommon short wise

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red sox 777 posted...

Everyone should be careful, unless you've already cashed out a lot. If you are a true visionary and haven't cashed out yet you probably have quite a lot of money at stake in which case you should be even more careful I think. Sure, if it crashes to $20 you still have a big profit....but you forewent a much bigger one.

What I'm looking for more than price is volume. Volume paired with a downward movement would be the telltale sign of long stockholders capitulating. If you look at the chart for the last week, it hasn't happened once yet. High volume has been correlated with rises, and low volume with declines.

This is probably good logic, I wonder how much time there will be to act when this is noticeable.

You're right that people stand a lot to lose from the gains they've made, but I think losing an unrealized gain because of missing the chance to sell will feel way less bad to people than losing their principal. I was clenching so tight the other day when WSB went private and I hadn't recovered my principal yet, but now that I got enough out, even though I have $11k of value still in I won't feel *too* bad if I miss the timing now. Worst case is just that It'll just be as if this whole thing didn't happen.

I just want the people who jumped into this with the hype and have rockets and moons in their eyes to clear their head a bit. (I'm looking at you, ExTha)

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Yeah, people like ExTha who bought a bit later need to keep in mind that without the 150%+ shares shorted at the start that GME had, which basically created an infinite money glitch since so many people held in unison, there's no way in hell that AMC will do anything close to GME with much less short interest floated. I also need to find out if WSB has been buying call options in unison on AMC the way they did Gamestop.

Basically, I think a pretty big
short squeeze is coming, but I can't see AMC being the gold mine that GME was. Depending on the current short positions and if hedge funds are wise enough to exit and eat their losses rather than double down, well a lot of price action we see in the next couple trading days may just come more from people FOMO buying in hopes of not missing the next Gamestop. There's also 2 days for hedge funds to try to come up with a backup plan to keep AMC from rising. Also the media narrative will be out in full force that this is "reckless" buying, which I mean is true for some, but not for the WSB people who got in early. Well, as long as they sell eventually.

It's gonna be hilarious if GME gets closs to 1000 because you know it will crater right before it reaches that from whales trying to sell right below that to get out fast.

Anyeay, I'm hoping to do much more DD this weekend on AMC, and I've been reading and watching videos the last hour or so and I think I understand short squeezing much much better now. Thank you guys for the help.

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CoolCly posted...

I really gotta push back on these timelines - AMC was supposed to blow up earlier this week, then Friday, and then it got pushed to Monday, Now "it could take all week, so keep holding"

It's critical to get out of this going into the squeeze or as the squeeze happens. If the squeeze occurs and you don't get out, and you don't realize you need to get out, you'll be headed for big losses as the collapse happens. If a squeeze even happens.

Vague timelines of how to long to hold this are very dangerous. At the very least you should all be thinking about safely guaranteeing your principal, if you haven't done so already.

honestly we all just underestimated how they'd fight back against everyone.
as it stands they purposefully manipulated the markets to force the buying price to the levels that they wanted, live throughout the day, by restricting access. from you can't buy at all to you can buy 110 shares, then 25, then 5, then 1. by manipulating the purchasing they can keep the stock prices at a level they want.

there won't be that $1000 GME unless the hedge funds are THAT dumb. AMC won't get what it should have gotten either, both have their worst neutered so on that front, the squeeze isn't as strong as it should be.

but there's still enough for a heavy gain. with GME and AMC. BB is more uncertain.

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So in a return to safe investing, what are some good places to park all these gains from GME? I'm thinking some normal hold stocks and some ETF's

I've put $3k back into Cloudflare and $3k back into ARKG. I'll probably also put the same into ARKK. I could just keep finding more ARKW's or whatever the hell but I should probably see what else is out there.

I always see VOO and QQQ paraded out as the gold standard, so I'll probably do one of them, though they kinda look the same to me. Plus theirs all these variations on the ETF you can pick, like in this list, would VOOG or VONG not be good choices?

https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/list#/etf/asset-class/month-end-returns

Any other good ETF's you guys have your eye on?

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I'm starting to get very worried and honestly thinking about cashing out now while I'm slightly ahead. Dunno if the fear is coming from lack of sleep or the emotional roller coaster this week has been but I would just be a wreck if I sold and then boom right after the rocket comes.

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Honestly the fact that GME is still at $350 even with a large amount of the industry manipulating numbers and breaking the fuck out of some laws to keep it down is impressive

Imagine what could have been without the artificial clampdown

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KamikazePotato posted...

Honestly the fact that GME is still at $350 even with a large amount of the industry manipulating numbers and breaking the fuck out of some laws to keep it down is impressive

Imagine what could have been without the artificial clampdown

we were looking right at it when the clamp down happened. We were going to break the entire financial system.

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Thinking about getting out of Robinhood right now before the inevitable happens and they get shut down as a company.

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New investors don't realize what diamond hands actually means. You can't just read and post DIAMNOD HANDZZZ for a week straight and expect to be strong when the time comes. It's about patience. Intensely boring patience. The time hasn't even come yet.

I don't get why everyone is trying to predict the day the squeeze will happen. There is no day it has to happen. It could be months. There's an average T+2 closing time for shorts, but this is obviously not an average situation. They will wait because they know you're weaker than them, and they have way more to lose. But we don't have to pay super expensive interest to hold. It's a no brainer who should win.

But if you can't even hold for 72 hours then what are you even doing. LOTM was right.

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Sorry foolmo never done any of this before and I'm running on four hours of sleep with solely red bull and adderall for the past three days

But one look at the idiots on WSB and my hands became DIAMON AGAIN.

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honestly reading "LOTM was right" is enough to keep me holding forever

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ExThaNemesis posted...

honestly reading "LOTM was right" is enough to keep me holding forever

Literally my goal

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As for the AMC short squeeze, GME has a market cap about 5 times as big and hasn't triggered the squeeze yet so I'd guess AMC has a long way to go before really getting into that area. On the other hand, it appears that the funds generally use portfolio margin where their margin calls are calculated not per stock but based on their entire portfolio....meaning they don't get a margin call until their entire portfolio is at risk of wipeout. Which means everything is connected - any stock they are short going up pushes them closer to their limit, any stock they are long going down also helps. And this month it would appear that's just about every stock they are short has gone up and every stock they are long has gone down.

https://twitter.com/ihors3

This is the best source I've found for good information about short interest (including explanations of what over 100% short interest really means). I would say there is a lot of risk for longs but much much more for shorts.

There's also risk across the market in stocks these funds are long as they sell those - in retrospect I am disappointed in myself for not having sold a lot of my stocks in companies that are not heavily shorted on Thursday. I was pretty sure that the market was going to fall a lot on Friday after having seen this play out Wednesday. I talked myself out of selling on the theory that it would have to fall by a fairly substantial amount to be worth it since it would lock in a short term capital gain and I can get it into long term capital gain area by waiting a few more months. Also thought that I have protection because if there is a market crash from this, GME will moon.

But, if the great short squeeze does happen, the market probably falls off a lot more. If it gets to the point where there are major bankruptcies and brokers start having liability, there is a chance of a cascading collapse like that one day -22% move in 1987. Would be an interesting day to see GME/AMC/BBBY/etc +600% and the rest of the market in circuit breaker red territory. My hope is, the financial system has been using the past 2 days to limit their exposure to avoid this kind of thing. It would not be good for the country.


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red sox 777 posted...

But, if the great short squeeze does happen, the market probably falls off a lot more

So in retrospect, Robinhood etc are the good guys?

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Nanis23 posted...

So in retrospect, Robinhood etc are the good guys?

LOL No. There would be no such crash if these guys had any sense of risk management.

Actually, I have a theory for why they don't. We, as a country, encouraged this when we bailed them out in 2008. Now they expect to be bailed out if they lose, as long as they lose a lot. That must not happen again. No bailouts! The market will recover on its own because nothing's really changed and everyone else will get a chance to buy in at temporarily lower prices.

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Putting aside the market manipulation of the brokers limiting us to buy certain stocks which obviously isn't legal, I still can't understand why what WSB is doing is legal

The question that always raise when something unique happens for the first time is pretty much always "why did no one thought of that before"
But the answer to this is obvious - someone did. A lot of people did. It's just not legal.
I know for a fact it's not legal in Israel and it would surprise me if it is legal in the US
A community can't say "let's all buy X stock and hold it!". When you are small, maybe no one will notice you, but you still can't.
Pewdiepie or other super popular streamers can't just stream "Hi guys let's all buy $WEN because I like Wendy's and hamburgers are delicious"
He can't do that. The SEC will hunt him into the depths of the earth.

Same goes for WSB. They can hide behind "we are not organized, we just like the stock" all day but come on we all know this is bullshit. This is a clear and cut market manipulation and the SEC should have issued a C&D to WSB/Reddit long ago

Of course they won't be able to take everything down. Like the WSB Telegram group, but who really cares about it? plenty of bots spamming "NOK NOK NOK NOK" is just stupidity that no one will takes seriously

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Collusion could be illegal I think. Sharing your thoughts about an investment idea is legal. And people tell others to buy and hold stocks all the time.

And no, the SEC hasn't tried to take WSB down, probably because they know they can't do that. Free speech is highly protected in the US and prior restraint of speech before it is published is treated with the highest standards. Attempting to silence discussion is itself obvious market manipulation. If after this is all over, they find evidence of collusion, they can look at it then but, like, the reality is, people are acting independently here.

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