Board 8 > @Ulti: should I bet on Trump winning in 2024?

(+) Yeah! (+)

I know you made a killing in both 2016 and 2020, so just seeing your preliminary feelings on 2024. Let's say I get 5:1 odds he's elected the 47th president of the United States. Take it now?

PS I am the user formerly known as BlackLivesMatt

I didn't make a killing in 2020, lmao. I had 1k on Biden and that's it.

And no you should not take that bet. The most likely winner in 2024 is Kamala Harris.

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Thank you for your sage advice and here's hoping Ron Tha Don DeSantis wins 47+ states.

Your talking like a 45-49% chance of Trump winning in 2024 if hes also still alive and capable in 2024.

5 to 1 is not good enough.

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You would have to lock up your money for 4 years if you place it now. Returns are probably better putting it in the stock market and revisiting in 3 years.

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Also those odds of him winning were me assuming he'd run unopposed in the primary.

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red13n posted...

Your talking like a 45-49% chance of Trump winning in 2024 if hes also still alive and capable in 2024.

5 to 1 is not good enough.

5 to 1 on your money on an essential coin flip is amazing.

That said, Trump isn't essentially a coin flip as you stated though in that scenario.

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If he runs and is still alive and doesn't get thrown in prison (possible big IFs...), Trump will win the Republican nomination easy.

He's going to be spending the next 4 years doing exactly what he did as President (tweeting stupidity and holding rallies) without any of the responsibilities. And the media is going to lap it up ("Biden does Thing X, former President Trump tweets 'Thing X is disasterous and would never have been done under his administration'"). So he's going to remain in the public eye in a way most other recent former Presidents have not.

Having said that, I wouldn't feel confident about him winning the general election. But with Republicans spending the next 4 years obstructing any and everything...you just never know.

It's not the worst bet in the world but like someone else said, you'd likely have a better return sticking the money in an index fund and letting that ride.

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Seanchan posted...

If he runs and is still alive and doesn't get thrown in prison (possible big IFs...), Trump will win the Republican nomination easy.

No US president will ever go to prison, but if he does that will probably just increase his chances of winning the election (that's why they call it "The Mandela Effect").

I also agree that if he chooses to run in 2024, he will sweep the primaries.

I think 5 to 1 odds is really good actually. Thinking true odds are around 50%. But you are giving up a lot of time value of money and flexibility unless you can close the bet sooner than 4 years.

Trump will still be president next year

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Seanchan posted...

It's not the worst bet in the world but like someone else said, you'd likely have a better return sticking the money in an index fund and letting that ride.

No index fund is going to quintuple in value across 4 years (especially with a Biden economy).

MitchMcConnell posted...

that's why they call it "The Mandela Effect"

cease

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MitchMcConnell posted...

No US president will ever go to prison, but if he does that will probably just increase his chances of winning the election (that's why they call it "The Mandela Effect").

I also agree that if he chooses to run in 2024, he will sweep the primaries.

Yeah, I don't really see him going to prison either but it is possible with some of those NY investigations. Likely they'll either amount to nothing or just quietly go away but they are things to consider.

MitchMcConnell posted...

No index fund is going to quintuple in value across 4 years (especially with a Biden economy).

Hmm, yes, I suppose I should have just done the math on this one. If you invested $1000, at a 6% return per year, after 4 years that puts you at about $1265, for a return of $265 or about 26%. I guess it comes down to what you think the odds will be closer to 2024. If you think you could get better odds then, invest now and bet later.

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Seanchan posted...

Yeah, I don't really see him going to prison either but it is possible with some of those NY investigations. Likely they'll either amount to nothing or just quietly go away but they are things to consider.

A lot of people are confusing SDNY for state charges when they are federal investigations.

Not saying New York might not have their own investigations but I always seem to see the SDNY cited when they are not state level.

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