Current Events > Both political parties take 8 year turns in office unless theres a major fuck up

(+) Yeah! (+)

If you go back to Eisenhower in 1953, this has been the trend (Truman had 8 years before him, but that was coming off 12 years of a fellow Democrat in Roosevelt).

The only hiccups over nearly the last 70 years are 1) Carter getting 4 years due to horrible inflation and the Iran hostage crisis, 2) the Republicans gaining an extra 4 years from HW after Reagans term, which could probably be slotted in part to how bad the Democrat candidates were, and 3) Trump only getting 4 years after running a miserable presidency. Thought that was interesting that the system is pretty predictable like that:

R Eisenhower, 1953-61 (8 years)
D Kennedy/Johnson, 1961-69 (8 years)
R Nixon/Ford, 1969-77 (8 years)
D Carter, 1977-81 (4 years; high inflation, Iran hostage crisis)
R Reagan, 1981-89 (8 years)
R Bush, 1989-93 (4 years; Dems put out a bad candidate in Dukakis)
D Clinton, 1993-2001 (8 years; back on schedule)
R Bush, 2001-09 (8 years)
D Obama, 2009-17 (8 years)
R Trump, 2017-21 (4 years; fucked up many major issues)
D Biden, 2021-?

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Bush got 8 years despite a major fuck up

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Lol one term bush really stands out, plenty of bad candidates out there

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Irony posted...

Bush got 8 years despite a major fuck up

Major fuck ups that affect people domestically seems to be the deciding factor. W had the mishandling of the Iraq War, but 1) it took place overseas and the vast majority of Americans were not directly affected by it, and 2) 9/11 was still fresh in a lot of peoples minds, and Bush had left the impression of being a president that would be tough on terrorism - the Iraq War played a role in that.

Carter had horrible inflation at home, and people were emotionally invested with the hostage crisis. HW Bush was a case of the Republicans being past due in office, and he raised taxes while specifically stating he wouldnt. Trump acted like a 10 year old with a Twitter account as a quarter million people died during a pandemic, in which he offered zero leadership on the national level.

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The Popo posted...

Major fuck ups that affect people domestically seems to be the deciding factor. W had the mishandling of the Iraq War, but 1) it took place overseas and the vast majority of Americans were not directly affected by it, and 2) 9/11 was still fresh in a lot of peoples minds, and Bush had left the impression of being a president that would be tough on terrorism - the Iraq War played a role in that.

Carter had horrible inflation at home, and people were emotionally invested with the hostage crisis. HW Bush was a case of the Republicans being past due in office, and he raised taxes while specifically stating he wouldnt. Trump acted like a 10 year old with a Twitter account as a quarter million people died during a pandemic, in which he offered zero leadership on the national level.

9/11 did affect people domestically

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I prefer looking at Presidential cycles in the very long term (40-50 years)

- Cycle starts with a unifier following a period of discord. A consensus candidate who alters how the public interacts with the government. (FDR/Reagan)

- Then we get a "chosen successor". Someone closely aligned with the unifier who basically runs on continuing their work. (Truman/Bush Sr)

- Then the opposition party gets their shit together and moderates/incorporates the new "consensus view" into their political orthodoxy (Eisenhower/Clinton)

- The political groups who grew from the unifiers philosophy make a comeback, though there's signs their governing coalition is starting to weaken and fray (Kennedy and LBJ/George Bush Jr)

- A dynamic candidate from the opposition party emerges and begins proposing a new "consensus view", though this prompts strong backlash. (Nixon and Ford/Obama)

- A candidate representing the dominant political consensus is rushed into power on the backlash to the previous candidate. They and their party find themselves woefully incapable of holding their coalition together or applying their consensus view to solving a national crisis. (Carter/Trump?)

I prefer this outlook since it's more flexible than the "8 years in 8 years out"


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H.W. Bush lost for one reason, "Read my lips: No new taxes."

That was his fuck up. It wasn't just that Dems had Dukakis and a better man would've beaten him. Voter complacency would've given him a second term had he not raised taxes.

I've always said this and I'm always met with "you're just one of those jaded non voters!!"

Yeah, I am. It's all a game, no real change will ever come

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Biden dont have 8 years left

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