Poll of the Day > So this whole election amounts to who mailed in their votes from Las Vegas?

(+) Yeah! (+)

As things are now:

Biden has 264

Trump has 214,...BUT if he wins Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alaska (as projections suggest) that's 54 more votes, putting him at 268, truthfully.

So Nevada is the key to winning, and despite Biden having a 0.6% lead over Trump, which amounts to around a 10,000 vote difference....and Nevada claims all the walk-in votes are counted, they are just waiting for the mail-ins to come in next to make things official. Except with a 10,000 vote difference, that's making it pretty tight.

Now the next theory is, who are the type of people that used the mail-in method....?

Biden suggested that all his supporters mail their votes, while Trump suggest not to because it's an untrustworthy method. So would that mean Biden won, on the assumption that all the mail-in voters are paranoids "COVID-Karens"....Then again, aren't "Karens" conservative by nature, who'll still vote republican using that very same method?.....sounds like a total crap-shoot now, that the fate of the country is dependent on how fast the mail service is.

Only other way I can see Trump winning is if Arizona did actually commit voter fraud, and Associated Press jump the gun on calling various states that claimed concluded their count......

Biden is predicted to win pennsylvania anyway, though

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Yeah at this point Biden wins anything, and he wins.

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I live in Las Vegas and everyone I know here (which isn't many) mailed in for Biden. But there is a strong conservative presence here too.

Clench281 posted...

Biden is predicted to win Pennsylvania anyway, though

It's 50.9% Trump, 47.9% Biden, as 90% of the votes are counted, according to AP

Georgia can also potentially turn for Biden.

Trump def has Alaska though.

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JigsawTDC posted...

I live in Las Vegas and everyone I know here (which isn't many) mailed in for Biden. But there is a strong conservative presence here too.

Yeah, kind of funny how the whole state is red, except Reno and Vegas.....and somehow it's going blue.

ryanell666 posted...

It's 50.9% Trump, 47.9% Biden, as 90% of the votes are counted, according to AP

So you only look at these numbers and make your conclusions, without looking more into the demographics of where the remaining ballots are coming from, or what analysts are saying

Got it

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ryanell666 posted...

Yeah, kind of funny how the whole state is red, except Reno and Vegas.....and somehow it's going blue.

It's Nevada. Everything that's not Reno and Vegas is desert trailer parks with 10 people.

That's pretty common in all states. Areas with higher populations voting blue, and rural areas red.

It looks red, but how many people live in the desert vs. Las Vegas?

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Ultimately it is going to get decided by the lawyers and the courts again, Bush/Gore all over again.

Clench281 posted...

So you only look at these numbers and make your conclusions, without looking more into the demographics of where the remaining ballots are coming from, or what analysts are saying

Got it

as opposed to pollsters who are only right 2 out of 10 times?

yeah, got it...

IronBornCorps posted...

Trump def has Alaska though.

It's all those people who can see Russia from their house!

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Entity13 posted...

It's all those people who can see Russia from their house!

Fun fact: The entire state is just a Tina Fey sketch. There's nothing actually there.

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ryanell666 posted...

as opposed to pollsters who are only right 2 out of 10 times?

Polling is a practice of predicting what the electorate will look like, then sampling from them as what you hope will be a representative sample.

Predicting where the remaining votes will go, based upon which counties they come from, is a much simpler task with few assumptions. In fact, you can simply take the measured vote distribution and extrapolate out to the vote total.

For example, with 50% of 1,000,000 ballots tallied from county X, 40% are for candidate A while 60% are for candidate B. You would predict 400,000 more for A and 600,000 for B. There is no fancy guessing of what the electorate looks like, because you're working with up to date data on votes. The only assumption is that your already-counted ballots throughout the county are randomly sampled from the whole set. And with very large numbers, that's usually a reasonable assumption.

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I did my part!

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