Board 8 > Your First Thought 9: "most unpredictable character"

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Underleveled
05/29/20 9:12:15 PM
#51:


Kefka

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darkx
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Underleveled
05/29/20 9:13:10 PM
#52:


All you people saying Donkey Kong, I think I've gotten like 90% of his matches right.

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Underleveled
05/29/20 9:14:01 PM
#53:


And yeah, Magus was my second thought after Kefka so that's not a weird one.

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MetalmindStats
05/29/20 9:21:27 PM
#54:


Yesmar_ posted...
'05 Knuckles is probably stronger than '03 Ganondorf, to be fair!
'05 Knuckles was bandwagoning hard after his unexpected yet very close win over Magus, then the mid-contest Advent Children boost further overrated him (alongside the whole Devil Division) in the stats.

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Leonhart4
05/29/20 9:22:52 PM
#55:


The Devil Division wasn't overrated. Just Knuckles and Magus.

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_SecretSquirrel
05/29/20 9:24:58 PM
#56:


I don't think Knuckles bandwagonned much at all against Squall. Knux vs. Magus was a giant upset to Board 8, but merely a one round match to the rest of the site.

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MetalmindStats
05/29/20 9:58:15 PM
#57:


Leonhart4 posted...
The Devil Division wasn't overrated. Just Knuckles and Magus.
And yet Dante and Squall both underperformed their x-stat projections by over 5% each the next year. Squall did at least have Snake's Brawl boost to give him an excuse, but Squall himself received KHII between 2005 and 2006.

_SecretSquirrel posted...
I don't think Knuckles bandwagonned much at all against Squall. Knux vs. Magus was a giant upset to Board 8, but merely a one round match to the rest of the site.
Eh, I wouldn't quite say that was true. Knuckles only had 35% of sitewide brackets taking him over Magus, and less than half of brackets with Squall in the second round had him advancing further, suggesting Magus/Squall was at least considered a close match sitewide.

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_SecretSquirrel
05/29/20 10:21:34 PM
#58:


MetalmindStats posted...
Eh, I wouldn't quite say that was true. Knuckles only had 35% of sitewide brackets taking him over Magus, and less than half of brackets with Squall in the second round had him advancing further, suggesting Magus/Squall was at least considered a close match sitewide.
43% having Squall out of that fourpack still likely puts him as a mild favorite.

If you assume each of the remaining entrants halves their prediciton percentage from the previous round, you get this spread depending on how you round out the percentages.

43% for Squall
33% for Magus
18% for Knux
6% for Geno

It's a decently contested four pack, but I just don't see a match that got 100,000 votes really having that big of a swing over about 250 people swinging and missing here.


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ctesjbuvf
05/30/20 3:19:45 AM
#59:


Kefka was my first thought

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KamikazePotato
05/30/20 3:24:46 AM
#60:


Kefka

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ChichiriMuyo
05/30/20 3:45:03 AM
#61:


Alucard

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Leonhart4
05/30/20 7:49:14 AM
#62:


MetalmindStats posted...


And yet Dante and Squall both underperformed their x-stat projections by over 5% each the next year. Squall did at least have Snake's Brawl boost to give him an excuse, but Squall himself received KHII between 2005 and 2006.

And yet there's Squall still dead even with Vincent in the X-Stats, who was even closer to Crono in 2006 than he was in 2005. They weren't overrated. This whole "they underperformed based on 2005" thing is a little misleading when you phrase it like that. 2006 Snake is one of the single biggest leaps we've ever seen.

It's actually 2006 where Dante is overrated because Yoshi got to face sprite Snake. 2005 Yoshi was honestly probably a bit underrated based on his match with Mega Man.

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XIII_rocks
05/30/20 8:05:58 AM
#63:


I'm honestly not sure if it was Kefka or Master Chief.

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Raka_Putra
05/30/20 8:42:23 AM
#64:


swirIdude posted...
Donkey Kong


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