Current Events > Texas church closes after priest dies, members get COVID-19

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Ruvan22 posted...

So do you disagree with the report today predicting that 54K deaths could have been prevented if social distancing had been implemented earlier?

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/21/coronavirus-could-bay-areas-early-shelter-in-place-order-have-saved-thousands-of-lives/

It is an interesting theory but it is just that, a theory. For one, the study uses the death rate calculated by using only the confirmed cases as the denominator. That denominator has all but been proven false by several antibody studies, even the most morbid experts agree with that.

More importantly, we have a proven case study for what happens with little to no social distancing measures in place and that is Sweden. As shown earlier, their death rate is likely ~0.5%.

There is also one part of the study that I do not even understand. From the study,

"A more pronounced control effect would have been achieved had the sequence of control measures occurred two weeks earlier: a reduction of 960,937 (900,114-1,011,498) [84.0% (78.7%-88.4%)] cases and 53,990 (49,688-57,186) [82.7% (76.1%-87.6%)] deaths in the US (Fig. 2e-f), and 246,082 (234,645-252,281) [93.8% (89.4%-96.2%)] cases and 20,427 (19,380-21,093) [93.7% (88.9%-96.7%)] deaths in the New York metropolitan area (Fig. 2g-h)."

New York City only has ~16k confirmed deaths. How is it calculated that they would have had 19k-21k fewer deaths than 16k?

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