Current Events > Texas church closes after priest dies, members get COVID-19

(+) Yeah! (+)

abaddon41_80 posted...

The total death rate; including elderly and those with pre-existing conditions; is very likely under 0.5%. If you take the averages of all of the antibody studies and estimates for how many people have been infected, the death rate is around 0.1%.

Please provide your source for this

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Oh look, NFL board poster is still clinging to a couple of flawed studies.

New studies have come out then. Very few people overall have been infected, we're so far off from herd immunity, your little .1% death rate is outlandish and been proven wrong.
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Thoughts and prayers

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again.... very stupid people

Sad.

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The death rarer for under 50 is essentially zero

if true, that is because we have hospital beds and respirators for them. If we just pushed them out to the streets like dogs they would die.

so we still want to avoid straining the medical system @abaddon41_80 , so you can keep dismissing the disease.

CableZL posted...

Please provide your source for this

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

As of May 1st, New York City had 13k confirmed deaths. New York City did antibody testing and found 20% of the population had COVID-19 antibodies. Given the population of NYC is 8.4mil, that would equate to roughly 1.7mil people with antibodies. 13k/1.7mil = 0.76%. The antibody testing done by USC and Stanford estimated even higher infection rates than that.

Only 690 of the deaths in New York City were people under 65 with no pre-existing conditions. According to the census, 7.2mil of the population is under 65. With an infection rate of 20% and assuming infection rate remains relatively constant among age groups, that means roughly 1.44mil people under 65 have been infected. 690/1.44mil is 0.05%, and that number includes people under 65 with pre-existing conditions.

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DoctorPiranha3 posted...

Oh look, NFL board poster is still clinging to a couple of flawed studies.

New studies have come out then. Very few people overall have been infected, we're so far off from herd immunity, your little .1% death rate is outlandish and been proven wrong.

Really? The most recent study I have seen shows New York with a 12.5% antibody rate, and that study was using a sample of 15k people.

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-results-completed-antibody-testing

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Stupid fucking people.

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CableZL posted...

Black church service is known to commonly go on for 4 - 6 hours. That's one of the reasons I stopped wanting to go as a kid.

Oh man......from when I was 7 until I was around 13 to 14, I went to enough sunday, wednesday, and friday services to last me a lifetime. Those sunday services was from like, 10 am to 2 to 3 pm (depending on how long the ministers wanted to preach, lmao). Ever since I hit 15 and therefore was pretty much left to my own devices, I haven't really been to one since....but yeah, I still have the memories. All the girls my brother and I knew when we were kids/teens was from the church though, so that was pretty cool, lol.

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Sayoria posted...

Stupid fucking people.

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abaddon41_80 posted...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

As of May 1st, New York City had 13k confirmed deaths. New York City did antibody testing and found 20% of the population had COVID-19 antibodies. Given the population of NYC is 8.4mil, that would equate to roughly 1.7mil people with antibodies. 13k/1.7mil = 0.76%. The antibody testing done by USC and Stanford estimated even higher infection rates than that.

Only 690 of the deaths in New York City were people under 65 with no pre-existing conditions. According to the census, 7.2mil of the population is under 65. With an infection rate of 20% and assuming infection rate remains relatively constant among age groups, that means roughly 1.44mil people under 65 have been infected. 690/1.44mil is 0.05%, and that number includes people under 65 with pre-existing conditions.

I really hope these numbers hold true.

However, even with that, I don't think we should suggest that we should be OK that so many people died just because they were more at risk of dying from the virus. The preacher who died in the story in the OP definitely could be living right now if he had taken it seriously.

And you never really know what side of the % you're going to be on either way. There is evidence of lasting lung damage even after recovery from the virus, too, so it's not like all the people who are surviving it are just A-OK.

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Hopefully the death rate is lower than what the confirmed cases suggest, but either way I'd rather be as safe as possible and just not get this virus at all.

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CableZL posted...

I really hope these numbers hold true.

However, even with that, I don't think we should suggest that we should be OK that so many people died just because they were more at risk of dying from the virus. The preacher who died in the story in the OP definitely could be living right now if he had taken it seriously.

And you never really know what side of the % you're going to be on either way. There is evidence of lasting lung damage even after recovery from the virus, too, so it's not like all the people who are surviving it are just A-OK.

This is the key here.

This virus is unknown, and you're taking a huge gamble on thousands of lives to continuously downplay it. 100K+ dead in two months, and we're not close to herd immunity.
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Plus these supposed low death totals are likely influenced by our social distancing. Who knows how high theyd be without the shutdown?

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https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/health/sweden-herd-immunity-coronavirus-intl/index.html

Sweden never locked down. Only 7.3% tested postivie at the end of April. Sweden now also has the highest death rate.

Banking on herd immunity has cost them tons of lives, and the deaths are only going to grow.
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DoctorPiranha3 posted...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/health/sweden-herd-immunity-coronavirus-intl/index.html

Sweden never locked down. Only 7.3% tested postivie at the end of April. Sweden now also has the highest death rate.

Banking on herd immunity has cost them tons of lives, and the deaths are only going to grow.

Based on the 7.3% antibody rate, roughly 750k people in Sweden has contracted and developed antibodies to COVID-19. Sweden has 4k COVID-19 deaths. 4k/750k = 0.5%. If that is the absolute worst-case scenario, I think we can feel pretty secure.

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Hello Earth to Texas, change is inevitable so use your strength to control your anxiety about staying home. You can drive around if need be. You have to check your property anyway.

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abaddon41_80 posted...

Based on the 7.3% antibody rate, roughly 750k people in Sweden has contracted and developed antibodies to COVID-19. Sweden has 4k COVID-19 deaths. 4k/750k = 0.5%. If that is the absolute worst-case scenario, I think we can feel pretty secure.

60-70% of a population need to be infected for herd immunity. That's 18-24 months away, and by then we'll most likely have a vaccine, anyways.

If 60% of America got the virus, and of those .5% died, that's almost a million people dead from the virus in the US alone in a span of 18-24 months. Trying to rush herd immunity over a vaccine is going to cost way more lives.
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shockthemonkey posted...

When people only use the death rate while ignoring what that rate equals in terms of actual human life, its very easy to tell that theyre full of s***.

Yeah, it's nice to say that the death rate is low, but when you equate that to people actually dying and how that would affect people IRL... It's still not OK

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We're also well past the point where people can claim "more people die from the flu," so it kinda just feels like the goal posts have moved.

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Evening_Dragon posted...

play
stupid
games
@Christian_RULES

@Evening_Dragon I have nothing to do with this

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DoctorPiranha3 posted...

60-70% of a population need to be infected for herd immunity. That's 18-24 months away, and by then we'll most likely have a vaccine, anyways.

If 60% of America got the virus, and of those .5% died, that's almost a million people dead from the virus in the US alone in a span of 18-24 months. Trying to rush herd immunity over a vaccine is going to cost way more lives.

We need to work on getting a vaccine before anything, I agree with that, but the chances of getting this disease and dying from this disease, especially for the vast majority of Americans, is miniscule. That is just a fact.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


By this logic, we should issue stay-at-home orders for at-risk people and close down some businesses every flu season. Not to the extent of what we have done for COVID-19 of course, for sure, but do something. Up to 62k people have died from the flu in the last six months, whereas COVID-19 is at 95k for the last three months. That means we should take a third of the measures we have taken for COVID-19 for flu season?

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The flu has a vaccine and we know the extent of the damage of that virus. COVID-19 has killed more and still remains more of a mystery to the extent of damage it will do to the lungs or how it could mutate, and other diseases exist so don't want to strain the healthcare system even further. That's why there's more measures for this than the flu.
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I have no sympathy for the pastor but it sucks he got other people sick.

People are so ignorant

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abaddon41_80 posted...

By this logic, we should issue stay-at-home orders for at-risk people and close down some businesses every flu season. Not to the extent of what we have done for COVID-19 of course, for sure, but do something. Up to 62k people have died from the flu in the last six months, whereas COVID-19 is at 95k for the last three months. That means we should take a third of the measures we have taken for COVID-19 for flu season?

We have flu vaccines available. The flu hasn't been known to cause lasting respiratory damage, either.

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abaddon41_80 posted...

We need to work on getting a vaccine before anything, I agree with that, but the chances of getting this disease and dying from this disease, especially for the vast majority of Americans, is miniscule. That is just a fact.

By this logic, we should issue stay-at-home orders for at-risk people and close down some businesses every flu season. Not to the extent of what we have done for COVID-19 of course, for sure, but do something. Up to 62k people have died from the flu in the last six months, whereas COVID-19 is at 95k for the last three months. That means we should take a third of the measures we have taken for COVID-19 for flu season?

Welp, this is a take.

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CableZL posted...

We have flu vaccines available. The flu hasn't been known to cause lasting respiratory damage, either.

COVID-19 hasn't been known to cause lasting damage at this point, either. We might know that in the future but we can't know that right now.

DoctorPiranha3 posted...

The flu has a vaccine and we know the extent of the damage of that virus. COVID-19 has killed more and still remains more of a mystery to the extent of damage it will do to the lungs or how it could mutate, and other diseases exist so don't want to strain the healthcare system even further. That's why there's more measures for this than the flu.

I agree that there should be precautions and measures in place for COVID-19. At-risk individuals should be under safer-at-home guidelines and stores should have to change cleaning habits, even closing down at certain times to do that cleaning. The response that did happen has gone too far, though, given the actual mortality rate of the disease.

Things should have been just a little more restrictive than what Sweden did but nowhere near the level they have been restricted. The flu kills 10k people a month and we do almost nothing for that. COVID-19 has killed 30k people a month and we basically shut down the country?

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abaddon41_80 posted...

COVID-19 hasn't been known to cause lasting damage at this point, either. We might know that in the future but we can't know that right now.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/what-coronavirus-does-to-the-lungs

Sepsis
Another possible complication of a severe case of COVID-19 is sepsis. Sepsis occurs when an infection reaches, and spreads through, the bloodstream, causing tissue damage everywhere it goes.
Lungs, heart and other body systems work together like instruments in an orchestra, Galiatsatos says. In sepsis, the cooperation between the organs falls apart. Entire organ systems can start to shut down, one after another, including the lungs and heart.
Sepsis, even when survived, can leave a patient with lasting damage to the lungs and other organs.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-some-patients-may-suffer-lasting-lung-damage

In 70 patients who survived COVID-19 pneumonia, 66 had some level of lung damage visible in CT scans taken before hospital discharge, researchers report March 19 in Radiology. The damage ranged from dense clumps of hardened tissue blocking blood vessels within the tiny air sacs called alveoli, which absorb oxygen, to tissue lesions around the alveoli, Yuhui Wang, a radiologist at Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, China, and colleagues found.
The tissue lesions can be a sign of chronic lung disease. Similar damage has been documented in survivors of SARS and MERS, respiratory diseases caused by coronaviruses similar to the SARS-CoV-2 virus behind COVID-19. Long-term studies of SARS patients have shown that roughly a third of people who recovered from severe bouts were left with permanent lung damage. In the case of MERS, one study found about a third of people who recovered from a serious infection still had signs of lung damage about seven months later.
But while initial lung images indicate that SARS and MERS typically set into just one lung, COVID-19 appears to be more likely to afflict both lungs right away. In 75 of the 90 patients admitted to Huazhong University Hospital with COVID-19 pneumonia from January 16 to February 17, damage was seen across both lungs, Wang and colleagues report. CT scans taken before hospital discharge revealed that 42 out of 70 patients displayed the type of lesions around the alveoli that are more likely to develop into scars.

We absolutely do know that one of the side-effects of COVID-19 is scar tissue in your lungs even after recovery.

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With all due respect, the first line of that says "possible complication." We also have no idea how long the damage the CT scans showed will last. There is no way to confirm it is permanent right now. The last line ever reads "likely" to develop into scars, not going to develop into scars.

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God damn it, America

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abaddon41_80 posted...

With all due respect, the first line of that says "possible complication." We also have no idea how long the damage the CT scans showed will last. There is no way to confirm it is permanent right now. The last line ever reads "likely" to develop into scars, not going to develop into scars.

Yes, it's a possible complication, meaning if you get a severe case of COVID-19 (young people can have severe cases, too), then you're at risk of getting sepsis.

Also

Some lung damage seen in the Wuhan study cases are likely to gradually heal or disappear, Wang and colleagues suspect.However, in some patients, lung abnormalities will harden into layers of scar tissue known as pulmonary fibrosis. That scarring stiffens the lungs, making it hard to get enough oxygen. People with pulmonary fibrosis typically suffer shortness of breath, limiting their ability to be physically active.

So yeah, I'm not trying to "just get this virus and get it over with" and risk having a severe case of it that may result in scar tissue in my lungs.

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abaddon41_80 posted...

With all due respect, the first line of that says "possible complication." We also have no idea how long the damage the CT scans showed will last. There is no way to confirm it is permanent right now. The last line ever reads "likely" to develop into scars, not going to develop into scars.

@abaddon41_80

Dude Sepsis isnt a mystery condition; We may not know everything about COVID-19, but when it causes Sepsis, its not guesswork when doctors say what Sepsis does to you. Its not doctors are unsure if Sepsis actually does anything, its a percentage chance of certain kinds of long term damage that is well documented in anyone who has Sepsis.

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DirtyPinky posted...

Jesus knows more about Christianity than you ever will.

To be fair, Jesus died decades before Christanity was established. It's not like he knew people would focus on his teachings as much as they did.

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That sounds like the same kind of lung damage vaping was causing last year

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MyMainAccount posted...

@abaddon41_80

Dude Sepsis isnt a mystery condition; We may not know everything about COVID-19, but when it causes Sepsis, its not guesswork when doctors say what Sepsis does to you. Its not doctors are unsure if Sepsis actually does anything, its a percentage chance of certain kinds of long term damage that is well documented in anyone who has Sepsis.

From the quoted text, "Another possible complication of a severe case of COVID-19 is sepsis." You may notice that is says "possible complication."

CableZL posted...

Some lung damage seen in the Wuhan study cases are likely to gradually heal or disappear, Wang and colleagues suspect.However, in some patients, lung abnormalities will harden into layers of scar tissue known as pulmonary fibrosis. That scarring stiffens the lungs, making it hard to get enough oxygen. People with pulmonary fibrosis typically suffer shortness of breath, limiting their ability to be physically active.

The damage gradually healing or hardening is complete guesswork right now. No one knows how it will or won't heal, either way is just a hypothesis right now.

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abaddon41_80 posted...

From the quoted text, "Another possible complication of a severe case of COVID-19 is sepsis." You may notice that is says "possible complication."

Possible complication means there is a risk of getting sepsis if you have a severe case of COVID-19.

abaddon41_80 posted...

The damage gradually healing or hardening is complete guesswork right now. No one knows how it will or won't heal, either way is just a hypothesis right now.

I'd say they're basing that statement off of our current understanding of how we heal. Most people heal from injuries without hypertrophic scarring. Some people don't.

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Your understanding of the English language is somewhat lacking @abaddon41_80 .

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CableZL posted...

Possible complication means there is a risk of getting sepsis if you have a severe case of COVID-19.

The article you linked to does not provide any data on sepsis being linked to COVID-19. Do you have a link for data that shows an actual correlation?

Mr_Rian posted...

Your understanding of the English language is somewhat lacking @abaddon41_80 .

See above. The phrase, "possible complication of COVID-19," points to sepsis being related to COVID-19 as more of a hypothesis than an actual linked complication, and the article linked to supports the former intepretation. The article also states septis can leave a patient with lasting damage, not will.

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https://www.sepsis.org/news/the-connection-between-covid-19-sepsis-and-sepsis-survivors/

Since COVID-19 is a viral infection, it puts you at risk of developing sepsis.

And no one is saying that you will end up with lasting damage. There's just the possibility of getting sepsis if you get a severe case of COVID-19. I'm not willing to take that risk.

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Well, you're just plain wrong. No one said that you will get sepsis. And no one said that it definitely will have permanent damage. And no, they aren't "uncertain" about Covid-19 and sepsis.

https://news.mit.edu/2020/mit-marshaling-artificial-intelligence-fight-against-covid-19-0519

https://www.global-sepsis-alliance.org/news/2020/4/7/update-can-covid-19-cause-sepsis-explaining-the-relationship-between-the-coronavirus-disease-and-sepsis-cvd-novel-coronavirus

It's possible that you get sepsis from Covid-19. It's possible that you die from Covid-19. These aren't unknown guesses. They are outcomes that we have documented.

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CableZL posted...

https://www.sepsis.org/news/the-connection-between-covid-19-sepsis-and-sepsis-survivors/

Since COVID-19 is a viral infection, it puts you at risk of developing sepsis.

And no one is saying that you will end up with lasting damage. There's just the possibility of getting sepsis if you get a severe case of COVID-19. I'm not willing to take that risk.

There is a possibility of getting sepsis with any infection. Neither this article, nor the articles posted by @Mr_Rian , show a specifically strong correlation between a COVID-19 infection and the development of sepsis. One of those articles states 10% of COVID-19 patients develop sepsis while the other two give no numbers on the development of sepsis among COVID-19 patients. For comparison, 30% of flu deaths for children list sepsis as one of the complications related to the death.

Since COVID-19 is an infection, you can obviously develop sepsis from it. That is a given. Sepsis can also be developed from the flu. You can develop sepsis from minor cuts and burns. The possibility of developing sepsis from COVID-19 is meaningless unless you can provide a significant rate for the development of sepsis for COVID-19 patients.

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You're moving goalposts to try to cover for the fact that you didn't understand what words meant. I don't need to bash my head on a wall for someone this willful in their ignorance. I'm done.

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Mr_Rian posted...

You're moving goalposts to try to cover for the fact that you didn't understand what words meant. I don't need to bash my head on a wall for someone this willful in their ignorance. I'm done.

I am not moving anything. Show me where I said that COVID-19 cannot cause sepsis. As my previous post says, sepsis can be caused by any infection and COVID-19 is an infection. My point has always been saying sepsis is a "possible complication" of COVID-19 is meaningless unless it can be proven COVID-19 is more likely to cause sepsis than other infections.

I have done nothing in this topic but give actual numbers on COVID-19. You have posted links with no hard numbers, basically nothing more than opinion pieces for the most, and then you accuse me of ignorance?

That is the problem with this whole pandemic. People on both extremes are not willing to look at the numbers. They hear what they want to hear, read what they want to read, and develop whatever opinion they want to develop. They do not allow anything to dissuade them and they attack anyone who disagrees.

I am not going to attack you, or anyone else in this topic or any other discussion I am involved it. The least you could do is show the same respect.

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abaddon41_80 posted...

See above. The phrase, "possible complication of COVID-19," points to sepsis being related to COVID-19 as more of a hypothesis than an actual linked complication

You said it's just a hypothesis that they're connected.

abaddon41_80 posted...

Since COVID-19 is an infection, you can obviously develop sepsis from it.

Then you said it's obvious that you can get sepsis from it.


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abaddon41_80 posted...

I am not moving anything. Show me where I said that COVID-19 cannot cause sepsis. As my previous post says, sepsis can be caused by any infection and COVID-19 is an infection. My point has always been saying sepsis is a "possible complication" of COVID-19 is meaningless unless it can be proven COVID-19 is more likely to cause sepsis than other infections.

I have done nothing in this topic but give actual numbers on COVID-19. You have posted links with no hard numbers, basically nothing more than opinion pieces for the most, and then you accuse me of ignorance?

That is the problem with this whole pandemic. People on both extremes are not willing to look at the numbers. They hear what they want to hear, read what they want to read, and develop whatever opinion they want to develop. They do not allow anything to dissuade them and they attack anyone who disagrees.

I am not going to attack you, or anyone else in this topic or any other discussion I am involved it. The least you could do is show the same respect.

So do you disagree with the report today predicting that 54K deaths could have been prevented if social distancing had been implemented earlier?

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/21/coronavirus-could-bay-areas-early-shelter-in-place-order-have-saved-thousands-of-lives/