Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1353

(+) Yeah! (+)

I remember AC3, Batman, NFS (best version), CoD and Watchdogs been ported to the Wii U!

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MechanicalWall posted...

Who's ready to pay 60 dollars to play GTAIV ON THE GO?! Implying people were playing it at all in the past decade.

Hey if people are willing to pay the Nintendo tax they'll keep putting them on the Switch.

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If we make Witcher 3/Persona 5 equal, Stardew Valley is expected to get 60.54% against Super Meat Boy

Pre-contest I would have take SMB > SV, but you can argue that perhaps Sonic Mania SFF SMB.

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charmander6000 posted...

If we make Witcher 3/Persona 5 equal, Stardew Valley is expected to get 60.54% against Super Meat Boy

Pre-contest I would have take SMB > SV, but you can argue that perhaps Sonic Mania SFF SMB.

Meat Boy would not get close to Stardew Valley.

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I'm not at all willing to make any claims about how these Indies would fare against each other. Have we seen any Indie vs Indie matches in a contest?

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CaptainOfCrush posted...

I'm not at all willing to make any claims about how these Indies would fare against each other. Have we seen any Indie vs Indie matches in a contest?

Super Meat Boy vs. Slay the Spire!

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Also, there would have to be some pretty significant SFF for me to even entertain Meat Boy. 35% on Galaxy 2 is likely way better than 35% on Sonic.

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If Witcher makes a run Stardew Valley could be the #1 indie in the xstats.

Is this Persona 5 performance good enough to challenge Witcher 3?

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i think so

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deeewooh posted...

i think so

YESSS. I know P5 is getting at least 47% on Witcher 3. It's going to be a battle.

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SuperNiceDog posted...

Is this Persona 5 performance good enough to challenge Witcher 3?

not really. I mean persona grts 45-48 im guessing

but persona rallies have been effective and 5 is a much more active game with Royal Release.

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What do you think Galaxy 2 gets on Sonic Mania?

If Witcher 3 = Persona 5, Galaxy 2 is currently projected to get 59.57%

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Leonhart4 posted...

What do you think Galaxy 2 gets on Sonic Mania?

If Witcher 3 = Persona 5, Galaxy 2 is currently projected to get 59.57%

60 sounds pretty good for an xstat projection, but in a direct match, I imagine our buddy SFF would make it much worse.

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I cant imagine a world where mario galaxy 2 doesnt come close to or break 70 on sonic Mania

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I honestly think Sonic Mania vs. Stardew Valley probably ends up being a tight match.

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Sonic 2 is projected to get 45 on Galaxy 2 based on 2015

Make whatever inferences you want from that

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I have a question.

Does anyone know the trends for anonymous users in the early vote?

We already know bracket voters and registered users flood the gates the first few minutes, but what about the non-registered users? At around what time into the match do they start voting like crazy?

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Leonhart4 posted...

What do you think Galaxy 2 gets on Sonic Mania?

If Witcher 3 = Persona 5, Galaxy 2 is currently projected to get 59.57%

I think SMG 2 gets around 60% on it

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SMG2 isn't an impressive beast by any stretch. I don't think this performance puts Persona 5 as the favourite, but it does look like it will be in striking distance.

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MechanicalWall posted...

Sonic 2 is projected to get 45 on Galaxy 2 based on 2015

Make whatever inferences you want from that

I think this makes it pretty clear that SMG2 would beat Sonic Mania very convincingly.

I can't see Persona 5 threatening The Witcher 3

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Witcher 3 basically did exactly as well on Galaxy 2 as Skyrim's 2015 x-stat would have it perform

Assuming all else is equal that basically puts it in arm's reach of the FFX/WW/TP block of games and only really loses to elite Nintendo and Square

Does Persona really hang with that crowd? I find that hard to believe, but I also don't think it's impossible. Pending DkS and Skyrim's performances this round, there's a nonzero chance P5 is Witcher's strongest opponent before BotW.

More likely tho Sonic's fourpack was probably just stupidly weak and this performance isn't all that. StS in strong contention for bottom of x-stats, I have to imagine

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Persona 5 is basically the elite weeb game. But having that crown doesn't really mean much.

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MechanicalWall posted...

Witcher 3 basically did exactly as well on Galaxy 2 as Skyrim's 2015 x-stat would have it perform

Assuming all else is equal that basically puts it in arm's reach of the FFX/WW/TP block of games and only really loses to elite Nintendo and Square

Does Persona really hang with that crowd? I find that hard to believe, but I also don't think it's impossible. Pending DkS and Skyrim's performances this round, there's a nonzero chance P5 is Witcher's strongest opponent before BotW.

More likely tho Sonic's fourpack was probably just stupidly weak and this performance isn't all that. StS in strong contention for bottom of x-stats, I have to imagine

Persona 5's trump card in the xstats argument is that projecting through a constant 2015 Civ and a constant 2015 SMG2 (both of which are strong assumptions), Witcher 3/Persona 5 would normally be a 52.5% win for Witcher 3. Thus Persona 5 can theoretically win the matchup if Persona's fanbase rallied for it the same way it did for Persona 4 Golden.

That said, this Sonic performance today is a bit underwhelming. If we assume Sonic is legit, stronger than SD and other indie games on the site, this would assume Ys is legit and I still have a hard time seeing that.

For reference, Sonic and HK got around the same percentage as Ys and Berseria respectively and JRPG fans can correct me, but I would not have put Ys in Berseria's level pre-contest since both are well received JRPGs but Tales is just a much bigger, familiar brand on GameFAQs.

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Oh, Witcher 3 isn't going to blow out Persona 5 by any means because I would take it to beat Galaxy 2 as well, but I don't expect P5 to actually threaten to win.
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squexa posted...

projecting through a constant 2015 Civ

squexa posted...

strong assumption

I can't say I remotely agree with this. Persona 5 being this strong just doesn't pass the eye test; as mentioned before, there's no reason for Sonic Mania to be anywhere near Galaxy 2, and Persona 5 failed to break 80% on one of the most hated games in the bracket in the first round. Civ 5 has reason to decline after Civ 6's lackluster reception, and more importantly because that P5/ACIV match doesn't look transitive after everything we've seen this contest.

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let's see Persona against Portal 2 before anointing it. it's had maybe the easiest path to round 4 of any game.

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transience posted...

let's see Persona against Portal 2 before anointing it. it's had maybe the easiest path to round 4 of any game.

Hmm...Maybe. Would you take Sonic Mania > FFXV?

Or maybe Sonic Mania over MGSV? Because Dark Souls has had a pretty cushy path, too!

BotW's path was pretty bad even if you don't account for its massive strength (which is good because SBAllen didn't need to waste any actual strong games in its half of the division).
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i'd take sonic mania over MGSV and FFXV but i'm a bad person to ask because i have it winning today lmao

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FFXV should beat Sonic Mania, yeah. Dark Souls is awfully friendly too.

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then again, I would have picked Super Meat Boy as being equal to Hollow Knight so lol indie games

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MetalmindStats posted...

I can't say I remotely agree with this. Persona 5 being this strong just doesn't pass the eye test; as mentioned before, there's no reason for Sonic Mania to be anywhere near Galaxy 2, and Persona 5 failed to break 80% on one of the most hated games in the bracket in the first round. Civ 5 has reason to decline after Civ 6's lackluster reception, and more importantly because that P5/ACIV match doesn't look transitive after everything we've seen this contest.

Certainly true. I've pretty much said afterwards that if Persona 5 is as strong as the xstats project, then Ys is way stronger than likely possible.

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maybe the next contest should only feature indie games to determine the best indie game ever

Had royal not come last month I would personally have most likely voted witcher but playing royal now has brought back all the good memories I had from vanilla P5 too, so now Im voting Persona, and Im pretty sure there are many who will do the same based on the fact that royal just came out.

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Sonic has looked bad all contest, I still think Portal wins next round

Persona 4 Golden is about even with RDR. Portal 2 looks a bit better than RDR2. I would take Persona 5 over P4G but I'm not sure whether RDR or RDR2 is stronger.
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I'd take RDR2 based solely on Rockstar recency bias

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Persona 4 Golden is about even with RDR. Portal 2 looks a bit better than RDR2. I would take Persona 5 over P4G but I'm not sure whether RDR or RDR2 is stronger.

The interesting thing about GTA is that the newer games tend to be stronger than their older counterparts, which is at odds with just about everything else on this site.

If RDR holds that tradition up, then RDR2 >RDR, but I am not sure how this place would take to some of RDR2's glaring faults in attempting to be overly realistic.

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White_Turtle posted...

Sonic has looked bad all contest, I still think Portal wins next round

LOL of course you do

you can never admit you were just wrong until the results actually demonstrate it
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Not sure which RDR game is stronger but I'm extremely confident in Persona 5 being much stronger than Persona 4. It has a higher playrate, more hype, Smash representation, and is more liked within the Persona fanbase.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6953-best-of-2017-game-of-the-year

This just becomes more and more impressive over time.

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After today, I'm not really sure if RDR2 is stronger than the original. I don't feel comfortable with Portal 2 been stronger than P4G.

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White_Turtle posted...

Sonic has looked bad all contest, I still think Portal wins next round

Jesus Christ

none DARE i say DARE insult me and say i'm as bad of a user as this tool.

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LeonhartFour posted...

LOL of course you do

you can never admit you were just wrong until the results actually demonstrate it

Because I'm not wrong until the match happens. Remember when you all were dead set that GSC was going to beat Majora, even halfway through the match

lordjers posted...

After today, I'm not really sure if RDR2 is stronger than the original. I don't feel comfortable with Portal 2 been stronger than P4G.

RDR2 was more divisive. I don't think it would have the support of the original


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White_Turtle posted...

Remember when you all were dead set that GSC was going to beat Majora, even halfway through the match

do you actually have any other matches to fall back on or is that all you've been able to use for 10 years now
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lordjers posted...

After today, I'm not really sure if RDR2 is stronger than the original. I don't feel comfortable with Portal 2 been stronger than P4G.

Portal 2 has proven contest strength. Persona has questionable performances against entities that have likely dropped in strength from their last known performance

Batman leading with the board vote....

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Dark Souls and Batman crushing early.

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raptor36000 posted...

Had royal not come last month I would personally have most likely voted witcher but playing royal now has brought back all the good memories I had from vanilla P5 too, so now Im voting Persona, and Im pretty sure there are many who will do the same based on the fact that royal just came out.

I mean sure but P5 will need a rally to beat Witcher 3.

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LeonhartFour posted...

do you actually have any other matches to fall back on or is that all you've been able to use for 10 years now

Ended up being a pretty significant match and probably the go to example of collective mass hysteria in this topic