Board 8 > The Coronavirus Topic #2 - COMPLETE GLOBAL SATURATION

(+) Yeah! (+)

SwiftyDC posted...

RIP whoever you were in contact with.

noone caught it. And no not contagious anymore.

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INO is at 14.08 today, holy shit

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Holy shit, they did it.
South by Southwest cancelled.

That's a HUGE one.

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They better not cancel EDC.

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If the U.S. was serious about containment they would urge that all huge gatherings from now until at least May be cancelled.

colliding posted...

If the U.S. was serious about containment they would urge that all huge gatherings from now until at least May be cancelled.

EDC is in mid May so Im fine with this.

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After SXSW very little has an excuse. That's in the six figures for turnout.

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Dont worry, WWE has confirmed that Wrestlemania will not be canceled

What could go wrong with an international contingent of stereotypically unhygienic people converging on Florida in the midst of a pandemic the elderly are most susceptible to?
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Starting to see some impact to people's societal habits. Disneyland crowds have pretty much cut in half week to week. And that is with a bunch of new seasonal events in operation which usually draw big crowds.

US totals went gettin 227 to 329 in a day

Look forward to more rapid increases!

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ninkendo posted...

US totals went gettin 227 to 329 in a day

Look forward to more rapid increases!

Almost certainly higher but we are worse at testing than China.

Leafeon13N posted...

Almost certainly higher but we are worse at testing than China.

china was on a forced lockdown and many civillians were willing to get tested. American people are too lazy.

how many people in the us have the virus but since symptoms maybe very mild they dont think anything of it?

the number of cases is basically everyone thsts been tested and come back positive. Not number of people infected.


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My departments open house for new grad students was cancelled, and at Stanford they cancelled two weeks of classes.

Not sure that this could have necessarily been stopped, but the response so far has been a clusterfuck.

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SxSW was cancelled. RIP Austin tourist money.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

My departments open house for new grad students was cancelled, and at Stanford they cancelled two weeks of classes.

Not sure that this could have necessarily been stopped, but the response so far has been a clusterfuck.

(The government response, that is; rereading it what I wrote seemed ambiguous)

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Everyone was talking about how high the deaths in Iran were, but Italy has a higher CFR than Iran (of course, assuming you trust Iran's numbers).

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https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1236348758142652416?s=21
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Considering how high the level of hysteria is with this disease, we're (as in the global community) doing a miserable job of containing it. Like thank god it's not actually dangerous to the majority of the population. Based on how this has progressed I'm pretty convinced we'd have a potential civilization-ender on our hands if there was a similarly contagious disease that sat dormant for a time before just straight up killing everyone who was infected.

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Xiahou Shake posted...

Considering how high the level of hysteria is with this disease, we're (as in the global community) doing a miserable job of containing it. Like thank god it's not actually dangerous to the majority of the population. Based on how this has progressed I'm pretty convinced we'd have a potential civilization-ender on our hands if there was a similarly contagious disease that sat dormant for a time before just straight up killing everyone who was infected.

yea the response has not been great. Granted it's so novel of a virus, but still

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Xiahou Shake posted...

Considering how high the level of hysteria is with this disease, we're (as in the global community) doing a miserable job of containing it. Like thank god it's not actually dangerous to the majority of the population. Based on how this has progressed I'm pretty convinced we'd have a potential civilization-ender on our hands if there was a similarly contagious disease that sat dormant for a time before just straight up killing everyone who was infected.

Let us be grateful the virus did not leak from the Umbrella Corporation.

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Dr Shine ive had this lump feeling in my throat for a few weeks

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188 cases in the netherlands now

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It is so sad that the quarantine hotel in China collapsed and they rescued that 12 year old boy today and he immediately just started saying how his mother is still trapped.

*Sigh*

Also, Italy with 133 deaths today. It is now the biggest source of the virus.

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MegamanX posted...

Dr Shine ive had this lump feeling in my throat for a few weeks

Coronacancer I'm sorry

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Thread

https://twitter.com/jeremykonyndyk/status/1236704428985593857?s=21

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That's a lot of charts

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Thread

https://twitter.com/jeremykonyndyk/status/1236704428985593857?s=21

It's impossible to stop at this point. I don't know what people are expecting. It's too many places. How are you gonna START to PREVENT it.

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Corrik7 posted...

It's impossible to stop at this point. I don't know what people are expecting. It's too many places. How are you gonna START to PREVENT it.

The point of this thread is that even if you dont stop it, slowing it down can result in considerably fewer deaths by preventing hospitals from being overwhelmed. Theres a significant chance if someone gets the virus that they can be saved with medical intervention but will die without it (which is why Wuhan, for example, had a much higher death rate than South Korea).

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LordoftheMorons posted...

The point of this thread is that even if you dont stop it, slowing it down can result in considerably fewer deaths by preventing hospitals from being overwhelmed. Theres a significant chance if someone gets the virus that they can be saved with medical intervention but will die without it (which is why Wuhan, for example, had a much higher death rate than South Korea).

I mean, I get that. But once it broke containment, what can you do? I mean, it spreads asymptomatic. It is likely all over the world now. And there is no way you could possibly ever follow all the dots now.

I mean, to prevent it you would have to seal all borders. Stop all illegal crossings. Quarantine for 21 days every single person enforced by a military state. And never reopen the borders until the virus was gone.

I mean, we aren't going to prevent it. Now for slowing the spread, we can do some things but I mean you are basically gonna have to do them forever at this point to prevent it unless summer really does kill it off or for a few years until a successful vaccine is made.

To stop medical hospitals from being overwhelmed, you have to keep it from the elderly as much as possible. Italy is getting wrecked right now cuz of that.

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Corrik7 posted...

I mean, I get that. But once it broke containment, what can you do? I mean, it spreads asymptomatic. It is likely all over the world now. And there is no way you could possibly ever follow all the dots now.

I mean, to prevent it you would have to seal all borders. Stop all illegal crossings. Quarantine for 21 days every single person enforced by a military state. And never reopen the borders until the virus was gone.

I mean, we aren't going to prevent it. Now for slowing the spread, we can do some things but I mean you are basically gonna have to do them forever at this point to prevent it unless summer really does kill it off or for a few years until a successful vaccine is made.

To stop medical hospitals from being overwhelmed, you have to keep it from the elderly as much as possible. Italy is getting wrecked right now cuz of that.

With social distancing you can slow it down by a decent amount. Theres also the possibility that Trumps hopeful prediction is right and that it does spread less in the summer (definitely not guaranteed, but not implausible).

The earlier you start doing this the more effective it will be, though.

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Corrik7 posted...

I mean, I get that. But once it broke containment, what can you do? I mean, it spreads asymptomatic. It is likely all over the world now. And there is no way you could possibly ever follow all the dots now.

I mean, to prevent it you would have to seal all borders. Stop all illegal crossings. Quarantine for 21 days every single person enforced by a military state. And never reopen the borders until the virus was gone.

I mean, we aren't going to prevent it. Now for slowing the spread, we can do some things but I mean you are basically gonna have to do them forever at this point to prevent it unless summer really does kill it off or for a few years until a successful vaccine is made.

To stop medical hospitals from being overwhelmed, you have to keep it from the elderly as much as possible. Italy is getting wrecked right now cuz of that.

Proactively close schools for a while, make employees work from home where possible, cancel events, discourage travel.

When the Spanish Flu hit, areas that closed schools proactively had a lower mortality rate overall. People are gonna get it, and you don't need to slow it forever-- just until it hits the peak. The entire goal is to make sure that hospitals and the like are not overwhelmed.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

With social distancing you can slow it down by a decent amount. Theres also the possibility that Trumps hopeful prediction is right and that it does spread less in the summer (definitely not guaranteed, but not implausible).

The earlier you start doing this the more effective it will be, though.

Just saying with asymptomatic spread, it is hard to stop. Especially figuring state to state we don't really have borders.

Someone told me dicks sporting goods (he works there and got sent home) is sending anyone at home who shows symptoms zero tolerance with running noses and shit (running nose isn't even a symptom of it btw) without pay.

But, the people most likely to spread it are the ones without the symptoms anyways. So, it's a like. Damned if you do or don't scenario. You think dicks is letting you go wash your hands every 5 minutes on the clock? Guess again!


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Yeah thats why its really helpful for people to just limit close personal contact in general even if theyre not symptomatic. People working from home if possible, not going to super crowded events, etc.

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Speaking of which, encouraging news on the efficacy of social distancing in Hong Kong: those measures have ended the flu season a month or two early, suggesting that they probably have an impact on covid (and even if not, fewer people in the hospital for the flu means more open hospital beds):

https://www.ft.com/content/ad7ae6b4-5eab-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Speaking of which, encouraging news on the efficacy of social distancing in Hong Kong: those measures have ended the flu season a month or two early, suggesting that they probably have an impact on covid (and even if not, fewer people in the hospital for the flu means more open hospital beds):

https://www.ft.com/content/ad7ae6b4-5eab-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4

Isn't the flu season ending early cuz it is warmer out?

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Corrik7 posted...

Isn't the flu season ending early cuz it is warmer out?

Its about the same temperature as the last few years.

I believe 99% people wearing masks in public does help even though there isnt concrete proof. The number of cases has been growing slower for about a month but I doubt we can keep this up now the virus is all over the world.

handsomeboy2012 posted...

Its about the same temperature as the last few years.

I believe 99% people wearing masks in public does help even though there isnt concrete proof. The number of cases has been growing slower for about a month but I doubt we can keep this up now the virus is all over the world.

Fair enough

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I don't know exactly what we're talking about, but I believe current estimates are that only something like 1% of infections are truly asymptomatic. Also the main way the virus spreads is by people coughing so it would seem people without a cough aren't infecting nearly as many people anyways.

Of course, I'm sure that a major vehicle for the disease to spread is through people who develop light symptoms or are in the early phases of the infection and don't yet realize they need to see a doctor, and that's effectively nearly the same thing.

But, I don't think this is a disease where the number of carriers of the disease is double the number of people showing symptoms, or something like that.
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pyresword posted...

I don't know exactly what we're talking about, but I believe current estimates are that only something like 1% of infections are truly asymptomatic. Also the main way the virus spreads is by people coughing so it would seem people without a cough aren't infecting nearly as many people anyways.

Of course, I'm sure that a major vehicle for the disease to spread is through people who develop light symptoms or are in the early phases of the infection and don't yet realize they need to see a doctor, and that's effectively nearly the same thing.

But, I don't think this is a disease where the number of carriers of the disease is double the number of people showing symptoms, or something like that.

Most people who are asymptomatic aren't getting tested.

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https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074131/coronavirus-highly-sensitive-high-temperatures-dont-bank-summer

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Some reports that someone could have passed it on to donald trump from Cpac or whatever. People on resetera are hoping it kills him lol. Not kidding.

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What has Trump actually done to influence US policy as it relates to the disease? Asking mostly out of ignorance.

edit: Or more to the point what even is the US strategy here? I've been following my state health department but haven't really been monitoring the national-level response.
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pyresword posted...

What has Trump actually done to influence US policy as it relates to the disease? Asking mostly out of ignorance.

edit: Or more to the point what even is the US strategy here? I've been following my state health department but haven't really been monitoring the national-level response.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1237027356314869761

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pyresword posted...

What has Trump actually done to influence US policy as it relates to the disease? Asking mostly out of ignorance.

Significant funding cuts to the CDC and complete oversight of what the public is allowed to hear from the government about the virus. The CDC and people actually dealing with and trying to prevent the spread cannot speak to the public at large.

To that extent, the assisted living facility or whatever exactly it is where most of the US deaths have occurred just got enough test kits for all of its residents... Yesterday. Needless to say government response has been less than adequate.

oh ya first positive case in the Dallas Fort Worth area now it hits home

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ninkendo posted...

oh ya first positive case in the Dallas Fort Worth area now it hits home

What's the temperature there right now?

I posted that article above that says the virus doesn't interact well at higher temps according to that research they did.

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