Board 8 > Movie and Box Office Topic: Prepping for Endgame

(+) Yeah! (+)

v_charon posted...

Speaking of Marvel... apparently Good Boys is only the second film this year to open at #1 that wasn't a sequel or remake of something else. If true, that's alarming. The other film was Us. Mojo reported this info, but they erroneously credited La Llorona as the third film to do it, but it's actually a conjuring universe film so I don't think it counts.

They're counting adaptations in the sequel/remake box. If you don't, Alita increases the number to 3-4, because La Llorona is a weird case where it is a part of the Conjuring universe, but marketing never really succeeded in making that association, and so most people probably didn't realize it was.

Jakyl25 posted...

It would be interesting to know how many there were each year like that this decade

Here's all the non-sequel/spinoff/remake/adaptations of previous works (even in the loosest sense) to open at #1 this decade:

2019: Good Boys, Us
2018: Bohemian Rhapsody, Night School, A Quiet Place
2017: Coco, Happy Death Day, The Hitman's Bodyguard, Dunkirk, Get Out
2016: The Accountant, Don't Breathe, The Boss, Zootopia
2015: The Perfect Guy, Straight Outta Compton, Spy, San Andreas, Chappie, Focus - Inside Out and War Room reached #1 without opening there.
2014: Ouija (an adaptation of a toy rather than a work of art), Fury, No Good Deed, Lucy, Neighbors, Non-Stop, Ride Along - The Other Woman is apparently "the adaptation of the original idea from The First Wives Club".
2013: Gravity, Elysium, The Purge, 42, The Croods, Identity Thief, Zero Dark Thirty (wide opening) - Prisoners, The Butler, The Conjuring, Pacific Rim, and Oblivion are all adaptations only in the loosest sense.
2012: Wreck-It Ralph, Hotel Transylvania, The Possession, Ted, Brave, Act of Valor, The Grey, The Devil Inside - The Vow and Chronicle are adaptations only in the loosest sense, while Safe House hit #1 after not opening there.
2011: New Year's Eve, Contagion, Super 8, Rio, Hop, Battle: Los Angeles, Rango, Hall Pass, The Roommate, No Strings Attached
2010: Megamind, Takers, The Expendables, The Other Guys, Inception, Despicable Me, Valentine's Day - Avatar opened in 2009 but held #1 for the first five weekends of 2010.

As far as I see it, there's two dominant trends to be gleaned from this. The first is that the doom and gloom over the death of the original movie looks more-or-less justified, which isn't surprising considering how high the streaming boom has pushed the bar for audiences to see a movie as a worthwhile theatrical attraction.

The second, however, is that even the totally original movies of past years have frequently leveraged established brands for their draws, and some adaptations have functioned as more original movies than some strictly original efforts (e.g. The Meg vs. Night School). Combine that with the biopics, real-life event adaptations, formulaic animated comedies, etc. on the original list and it's easy to see how muddy the definition of an original movie really is.
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It is worth pointing out that with Endgame we may have reached the apex of comic movie popularity, and Disney's remakes of classic animated movies were guaranteed hits but won't last forever (and Lion King/Aladdin are two of the most loved movies they have).

It is definitely a worrying trend which I'm not dismissing but this year does have a few things going for it that might make it uniquely low.

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XIII_rocks posted...

It is definitely a worrying trend which I'm not dismissing but this year does have a few things going for it that might make it uniquely low.

Well yes, the year is only two-thirds over. Abominable is effectively locked to open at #1, while Ad Astra and Gemini Man might pull it off. I'm looking at the longer-term trend when I say that, specifically the 3-5 per year from 2016 on, after the streaming boom set in, as opposed to 7+ in 2014 and before, when the streaming boom hadn't quite set in yet.
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XIII_rocks posted...

It is worth pointing out that with Endgame we may have reached the apex of comic movie popularity, and Disney's remakes of classic animated movies were guaranteed hits but won't last forever (and Lion King/Aladdin are two of the most loved movies they have).

It is definitely a worrying trend which I'm not dismissing but this year does have a few things going for it that might make it uniquely low.

Endgame is almost certainly the apex, but if they plateau at like Captain Marvel level, I think everyones still happy
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MetalmindStats posted...

v_charon posted...

Speaking of Marvel... apparently Good Boys is only the second film this year to open at #1 that wasn't a sequel or remake of something else. If true, that's alarming. The other film was Us. Mojo reported this info, but they erroneously credited La Llorona as the third film to do it, but it's actually a conjuring universe film so I don't think it counts.

They're counting adaptations in the sequel/remake box. If you don't, Alita increases the number to 3-4, because La Llorona is a weird case where it is a part of the Conjuring universe, but marketing never really succeeded in making that association, and so most people probably didn't realize it was.

Jakyl25 posted...

It would be interesting to know how many there were each year like that this decade

Here's all the non-sequel/spinoff/remake/adaptations of previous works (even in the loosest sense) to open at #1 this decade:

2019: Good Boys, Us
2018: Bohemian Rhapsody, Night School, A Quiet Place
2017: Coco, Happy Death Day, The Hitman's Bodyguard, Dunkirk, Get Out
2016: The Accountant, Don't Breathe, The Boss, Zootopia
2015: The Perfect Guy, Straight Outta Compton, Spy, San Andreas, Chappie, Focus - Inside Out and War Room reached #1 without opening there.
2014: Ouija (an adaptation of a toy rather than a work of art), Fury, No Good Deed, Lucy, Neighbors, Non-Stop, Ride Along - The Other Woman is apparently "the adaptation of the original idea from The First Wives Club".
2013: Gravity, Elysium, The Purge, 42, The Croods, Identity Thief, Zero Dark Thirty (wide opening) - Prisoners, The Butler, The Conjuring, Pacific Rim, and Oblivion are all adaptations only in the loosest sense.
2012: Wreck-It Ralph, Hotel Transylvania, The Possession, Ted, Brave, Act of Valor, The Grey, The Devil Inside - The Vow and Chronicle are adaptations only in the loosest sense, while Safe House hit #1 after not opening there.
2011: New Year's Eve, Contagion, Super 8, Rio, Hop, Battle: Los Angeles, Rango, Hall Pass, The Roommate, No Strings Attached
2010: Megamind, Takers, The Expendables, The Other Guys, Inception, Despicable Me, Valentine's Day - Avatar opened in 2009 but held #1 for the first five weekends of 2010.

As far as I see it, there's two dominant trends to be gleaned from this. The first is that the doom and gloom over the death of the original movie looks more-or-less justified, which isn't surprising considering how high the streaming boom has pushed the bar for audiences to see a movie as a worthwhile theatrical attraction.

The second, however, is that even the totally original movies of past years have frequently leveraged established brands for their draws, and some adaptations have functioned as more original movies than some strictly original efforts (e.g. The Meg vs. Night School). Combine that with the biopics, real-life event adaptations, formulaic animated comedies, etc. on the original list and it's easy to see how muddy the definition of an original movie really is.

Thanks for this

This makes Get Out look even more impressive
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Jakyl25 posted...

XIII_rocks posted...

It is worth pointing out that with Endgame we may have reached the apex of comic movie popularity, and Disney's remakes of classic animated movies were guaranteed hits but won't last forever (and Lion King/Aladdin are two of the most loved movies they have).

It is definitely a worrying trend which I'm not dismissing but this year does have a few things going for it that might make it uniquely low.

Endgame is almost certainly the apex, but if they plateau at like Captain Marvel level, I think everyones still happy

Could a Galactus-type villain draw the same?
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Jakyl25 posted...

XIII_rocks posted...

It is worth pointing out that with Endgame we may have reached the apex of comic movie popularity, and Disney's remakes of classic animated movies were guaranteed hits but won't last forever (and Lion King/Aladdin are two of the most loved movies they have).

It is definitely a worrying trend which I'm not dismissing but this year does have a few things going for it that might make it uniquely low.

Endgame is almost certainly the apex, but if they plateau at like Captain Marvel level, I think everyones still happy

I think their plateau is even lower than this for first films in a franchise. As the worldwide market grows, of course, I think their expectations rise, but they've already demonstrated that they can turn even modest successes into important cultural influences and commodify these characters so successfully that only old school Star Wars can likely much the level of pop culture influence.
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I don't really think Hollywood is to blame for the dwindling number of original films that open at #1; it isn't that they aren't still making them, it's that they just never reach #1 in the box office. The real fault of all these sequels and remakes is, of course, the viewers themselves. This isn't news I guess but I still feel like a lot of writers like to lambast Hollywood for being out of ideas when in actuality, they're just trying to make something that will sell.
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TheRock1525 posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

XIII_rocks posted...

It is worth pointing out that with Endgame we may have reached the apex of comic movie popularity, and Disney's remakes of classic animated movies were guaranteed hits but won't last forever (and Lion King/Aladdin are two of the most loved movies they have).

It is definitely a worrying trend which I'm not dismissing but this year does have a few things going for it that might make it uniquely low.

Endgame is almost certainly the apex, but if they plateau at like Captain Marvel level, I think everyones still happy

Could a Galactus-type villain draw the same?

Any villain could if they slowly built it up over 20 movies. I just dont see that happening again
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Of course watch me be wrong and Black Widow kickstarts the Cosmic Saga culminating at the end of Phase 6
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v_charon posted...

I don't really think Hollywood is to blame for the dwindling number of original films that open at #1; it isn't that they aren't still making them, it's that they just never reach #1 in the box office. The real fault of all these sequels and remakes is, of course, the viewers themselves. This isn't news I guess but I still feel like a lot of writers like to lambast Hollywood for being out of ideas when in actuality, they're just trying to make something that will sell.

I vehemently disagree with this. The viewership is out there for new content. The issue is glutting a market of TV and movies with too much content. It becomes so much more difficult to push original content when you have all of your friends shouting at you with different recommendations. Add to that the cost of 30 bucks to go with a date to a movie on top of it, and we become much more adverse to risks. We play it safe with what we know is tried-and-true. Hollywood caters to this by betting big on the safest avenues of revenue. So this further promotes the agenda of playing it safe by making safe bets the ones that have the biggest stars and budgets.

If you look at risk-taking, you find a lot of it in TV with unconventional narratives and unique, mold-breaking storytelling. These shows find cult audiences and moderate success, but the bar for success continues to be lowered as a market glutted by Hollywood's machine of media continues to create massive amounts of content for hungry networks and services while also trying to cater to a more cash-up-front option like the old cinema. So you push the less surefire things on the lower risk market for yourself. Your payment comes before something airs in these situations. You can afford to take the risk because, playing seasons of TV with contracts as they are now, you get paid for your season upfront and if it gets cancelled, the money has been made.
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I wonder how many decades we are from traditional movie theaters being reduced to a niche nostalgia market like drive-ins are now
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I think you'd have to convert more people to streaming service-only and convince them to pay more per service by a significant margin. I admittedly haven't put much thought into the likelihood of that, and I think there is an event-based drive for movie theaters to continue to exist, but I think more and more movies that aren't big-budget blockbusters will begin to migrate to services.
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Well yeah thats why I said decades
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Like by the 2070s we might look at traditional theaters the way we look at physical encyclopedia sets today
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I think that's a pretty strange prediction considering we are arguably in a boom period for film and all. Typically you don't try to predict the end of something when it's on a high.
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Hey Im not predicting the end of the film industry, just the medium for delivery as home theaters get better and better
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The thing is that implies a transition of humans into a more reclusive and less outgoing species, which if you look at history hasn't quite been the case. Film basically replaced plays as the go to social outing event, and before plays you had things like gladiator fights. People like to come together and witness stuff. I can't imagine a time where they don't.
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v_charon posted...

Film basically replaced plays as the go to social outing event, and before plays you had things like gladiator fights.

It was very hard to have plays and gladiators in your own home.

Film is competing against watching movies on your literal phones. Movie theaters are absolutely dying.
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Theaters are probably going to become insanely priced premium experiences exclusively for those who want a fancy atmosphere to go with their content in the not-so-distant future. (Hey, they've already got the insanely priced part down!)

The reason isn't because of phones, though. Who the hell wants to watch a movie on their phone? The real killer is home theaters becoming comparable to traditional theaters for those who care, coupled with streaming culture meaning that withholding content people have to physically go fight their way into (in cases of limited availability) is making less and less sense.
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Xiahou Shake posted...

The reason isn't because of phones

It's not "everyone is watching movies on their phones" its "media has become so easily accessible we can watch it everywhere." We are long past the era of VCRs and CDs, even gaming is becoming more and more digital.

Why do you think they're trying to revive the 3D experience? They're trying any hook to get people to come out and upcharge them.
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Ahhh, I gotcha. I agree wholeheartedly, then!
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*Avengers breaks box office records*

"Theaters are dying".

Movie theaters are not that badly priced people, and even if you feel they are I've got news for you, it's been that way for quite a long time now. The jokes about how badly movie theaters price their drinks and popcorn are literally as old as theaters themselves.
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v_charon posted...

*Avengers breaks box office records*

"Theaters are dying".

Yeah that's not how box office works.
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*Avengers sails on increased worldwide markets that have yet to develop the thirst for streaming services yet.*

"This proves that theaters are not dying!"

I just think we're on a very shaky ground at the moment with too much uncertainty as to the future of media consumption. As you can see, tea leaves out of Avengers just isn't really worth it.
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Yeah okay dude, your one word responses make me want to place this topic back on ignore. It's amazing how bull-headed and rude this particular topic can be. I provided historical facts about how humans like to watch events in a confined space together. You provided virtually nothing of any value; literally saying that anyone would actually prefer to watch a movie on a fucking phone screen than have to go to the theater to see it. Very logical, because anyone would actually prefer doing that.

Yeah, so done in here.
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Are home theaters still increasing at the same pace as they were 10 years ago? With cord cutting, and smart phones I would figure that people are less invested in television purchases.

In regards to the fate of movie theaters, I'm not too worried. Per capita film attendance in the US is quite a bit higher than most other major developed countries, minus France, and movie theaters haven't collapsed anywhere else to my knowledge, so there's quite a ways to fall. Per capita attendance has been relatively stable throughout the teens, so while this year has been bad, I don't necesarilly see a future where attendance keeps dropping every year. The collapse of the adult drama is certainly a cause for concern for the film industry on an aesthetic level, but I don't think that theaters themselves are going anywhere anytime soon.
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