Board 8 > Movie and Box Office Topic: Prepping for Endgame

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scarletspeed7
04/26/19 10:40:27 AM
#51:


Thursday night previews pulled in $60 million.
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stafoc
04/27/19 8:41:24 AM
#52:


Looks like Deadline is projecting a $157 million opening day! This is kinda nuts.
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scarletspeed7
04/27/19 11:43:07 AM
#53:


157 million, and a worldwide total of 650 million right now. Avatar might actually be in trouble!

With a consistent Marvel comics trend, Avengers could likely take in 340 million on opening weekend. For comparison, that's more than Iron Man 1's entire run. The question is, really, just how far past 300 this thing reaches, not whether it does or not.
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scarletspeed7
04/28/19 12:50:06 PM
#54:


$350 million dollar opening weekend confirmed.
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v_charon
04/28/19 1:45:45 PM
#55:


$1.2 Billion worldwide.
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scarletspeed7
04/28/19 1:48:44 PM
#56:


Starfox and I were chatting stats earlier:

If it trends with the best holds of Marvel, it will land around 923 million dollars, or just shy of the domestic record.

If it trends with the average, expect 850m.

It's currently #202 all-time adjusted for inflation, and that's after three days.

It's currently #102 all-time worldwide.

It's currently #50 all-time domestically. It's also #9 in the MCU right now.
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MetalmindStats
04/28/19 4:42:17 PM
#57:


scarletspeed7 posted...
It's currently #102 all-time worldwide.

This goes all the way up to #18 when unadjusted. Yes, already. As someone who has followed the box office for about six years, I have no words to properly describe Endgame's precedent-smashing numbers. As expected as it was that Endgame would break the preceding records, nothing could quite prepare me for this.
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scarletspeed7
04/28/19 4:44:27 PM
#58:


New sequel to London is Falling:

Avatar is Falling.
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scarletspeed7
04/29/19 6:04:56 PM
#59:


$357.1 million is the official number.

46th all time domestically!

193rd all time adjusted for inflation!

17th all time worldwide!
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scarletspeed7
04/30/19 5:44:32 PM
#60:


How about a 37 million dollar Monday?

35th all time domestically

150th all time adjusted for inflation

10th all time worldwide
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MetalmindStats
04/30/19 5:59:18 PM
#61:


scarletspeed7 posted...
How about a 37 million dollar Monday?

And the Monday gross itself was #3 of all time for a (North American) Monday, behind only Black Panther, and The Force Awakens - respectively boosted by Presidents' Day and the holiday season.
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scarletspeed7
04/30/19 6:04:02 PM
#62:


Force Awakens already showing that it likely will have stronger legs than Avengers, by the looks of things. Not surprised; my ceiling prediction was 923 for Avengers if it held at the rate of the best Marvel percentage drops.
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MetalmindStats
04/30/19 6:41:40 PM
#63:


Yep, it was inevitable that The Force Awakens would have better legs, just because it was released in the holiday season. Endgame's 59% Sunday-to-Monday dip, though, is nonetheless easily the best of the four Avengers movies. I suppose we'll see if that's entirely due to spillover or if Endgame has a realistic chance of dipping less than 50% in its second weekend.
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scarletspeed7
04/30/19 6:42:59 PM
#64:


It would definitely be nice to see legit race. The issue is whether, a month, Disney eats its own young with marketing for Aladdin.
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scarletspeed7
05/01/19 5:20:13 PM
#65:


33.1m puts the total at $427m (over 1.48 billion).

20th all-time domestically.

121st adjusted for inflation.

8th all-time worldwide.
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scarletspeed7
05/02/19 3:41:42 PM
#66:


The race to beat Episode VII continues with another 25.5m pull.

17th all-time domestically.

109th all-time adjusted for inflation.

6th all-time worldwide.
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MetalmindStats
05/03/19 5:22:48 PM
#67:


Endgame made another $21.5 million on Thursday, plus another $100 million outside of North America.

That puts it at 15th all-time domestically, 101st all-time adjusted for inflation, and (already) 5th all-time worldwide.

In new movie news, The Intruder won the Thursday-night sweepstakes as expected, with $865k versus $660k for Long Shot and $300k for UglyDolls.

These are my weekend predictions for this weekend domestically as of yesterday, which I meant to post here:

1. $165.3 million Avengers: Endgame (-53.7%)
2. $13.3 million The Intruder
3. $11.0 million UglyDolls
4. $9.7 million Long Shot
5. $5.7 million Captain Marvel
6. $4.5 million Breakthrough
7. $3.7 million The Curse of La Llorona
8. $3.0 million Shazam!
9. $2.0 million Dumbo
10. $1.8 million Little
11. $1.2 million El Chicano
12. $550,000 Penguins
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scarletspeed7
05/03/19 5:28:36 PM
#68:


I feel bad for Long Shot. It seems to have pretty good reviews.

Anyways, next up on the all-time list is Infinity War, and it's about 250m away. If this weekend can net that worldwide, the #1 slot is pretty much guaranteed for Endgame.
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scarletspeed7
05/04/19 11:21:32 AM
#69:


Another 40 million for Endgame.

It's now #12 domestically and #74 adjusted.
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Grand Kirby
05/04/19 5:26:04 PM
#70:


scarletspeed7 posted...
I feel bad for Long Shot. It seems to have pretty good reviews.

They knew what its chances were when they named it.
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scarletspeed7
05/05/19 12:50:34 PM
#71:


Endgame is now sitting at $619 million and nearly $2.2 billion worldwide.

It's finally #2 worldwide (behind Avatar). It's #9 domestically (next up is Last Jedi), and #42 adjusted for inflation (next up is Independence Day).
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TheRock1525
05/05/19 12:54:43 PM
#72:


scarletspeed7 posted...
Endgame is now sitting at $619 million


Booyaka.
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XIII_rocks
05/05/19 1:05:36 PM
#73:


Utter madness to overtake Titanic that fast. God damn.

I'd love if it overtook Avatar. It's the MCU's last great accomplishment. I will say anecdotally that even my mother has seen Endgame and she's really not into comic book movies at all. It's a draw in all sorts of bizarre ways.
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DoomTheGyarados
05/07/19 10:19:01 AM
#74:


Long Shot was great tbh
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scarletspeed7
05/09/19 3:31:14 PM
#75:


The lead on Star Wars is sadly down to just 40 million.
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MetalmindStats
05/09/19 5:50:09 PM
#76:


My domestic weekend predictions:

1. $68.4 million Avengers: Endgame
2. $58.8 million Pokmon: Detective Pikachu
3. $15.0 million The Hustle
4. $8.3 million Poms
5. $5.8 million Long Shot
6. $4.5 million The Intruder
7. $4.1 million UglyDolls
8. $3.0 million Tolkien
9. $2.8 million Captain Marvel
10. $2.4 million Breakthrough
11. $1.4 million The Curse of La Llorona
12. $760,000 Student of the Year 2

I've soured even further on Detective Pikachu's potential since I made my last post about it; I now think it's likely going to settle for $500-600 million worldwide in total.
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scarletspeed7
05/10/19 3:50:11 PM
#77:


I'm predicting lower than that. $50m even.
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MetalmindStats
05/10/19 4:15:32 PM
#78:


Anything between $40 and $70 million looked plausible to me ahead of the weekend, but now with Thursday night results and early reads in, it seems like Pikachu will indeed open to around $50 million.

If it holds in line with Shazam relative to Thursday night previews, it will make about $51.7 million; Deadline's current estimate is slightly higher, at $53.6 million.
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scarletspeed7
05/10/19 4:16:47 PM
#79:


It's too bad because I really thought Pokemon could swing hard out of the gate. It would have been nice to see a real new contender in the major film market.
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scarletspeed7
05/11/19 12:34:29 PM
#80:


Surprisingly, Pikachu topped Avengers on Friday! Although Avengers might still win the weekend.
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MetalmindStats
05/11/19 5:22:19 PM
#81:


Avengers is on pace for a pretty bad third weekend hold. My $68.4 million was on the pessimistic end of pre-weekend estimates, but Deadline's currently calling it at just $62 million (-58%). That would be about what Infinity War made in its third weekend; if international trends a similar way, Avatar might not be in jeopardy anymore. Of course, any recognition of Endgame's deceleration needs to be paired with a recognition of just how historic its run has been to date; arguably, a significant slowdown should have been expected given how high the immediate must-see factor was (and against greater competition than Infinity War faced).
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MetalmindStats
05/12/19 5:13:53 PM
#82:


Official global weekend estimates are in. Endgame made an estimated $63,054,000 domestically, plus another $102.3 million internationally from all territories Disney reports on. That's about a $165 million worldwide weekend, leaving it $302 million away from topping Avatar. It's looking a lot closer than it was a week ago, but I still think Endgame can hit the top spot.

Detective Pikachu's a close second, with a domestic estimate of $58 million. Internationally, it was even closer in the top spot; a $103 million overall debut included $40.8 million in China, though Pikachu has yet to open in Russia and select minor/midsized markets. Its legs will be very important to watch from here; we've got no clear indication as to whether Pikachu falters to a lackluster $400 million or so, or shoots for $500 million+.
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scarletspeed7
05/12/19 5:27:38 PM
#83:


At this point, it's safe to say that Episode VII will remain the untouched #1 domestically for the next few years.
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MetalmindStats
05/16/19 6:28:58 PM
#84:


My domestic weekend predictions:

1. $46.2 million John Wick: Chapter 3 Parabellum
2. $32.3 million Avengers: Endgame
3. $25.0 million Pokmon Detective Pikachu
4. $9.8 million A Dogs Journey
5. $6.2 million The Sun is Also a Star
6. $5.1 million The Hustle
7. $3.9 million The Intruder
8. $2.9 million Long Shot
9. $2.7 million Poms
10. $1.8 million UglyDolls
11. $1.2 million Breakthrough
12. $1.0 million Tolkien

John Wick 3 is pacing for another big improvement over its predecessor, based on presales at least, while the other two openers are just hoping for scraps. As for holdovers, I think Endgame can finally recover a little thanks to the lesser competition than Infinity War faced in its fourth weekend, while Pikachu is showing all the signs of mediocre enough word of mouth to tank hard this weekend (see also: Dumbo and Shazam, both with distinct similarities in their approaches).

Overall, this weekend's going to inevitably be down a bunch from the same frame last year; with a profitable summer still in the offing, that wouldn't be so bad on its own. It gets worse, however, considering we're still down over 10% from 2018, and further in light of Aladdin pacing weakly over this upcoming weekend. There's two other openers looking to debut as blips, so we're pretty much going to have two down weekends in a row.
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MetalmindStats
05/21/19 8:05:31 PM
#85:


With domestic weekend actuals, John Wick 3 opened to a whopping $57 million - 90% ahead of John Wick 2 and not far behind Mission: Impossible - Fallout. A Dog's Journey flopped with just $8 million, less than half of its predecessor; however, it opened higher in China with $11.1 million, and has very strong word of mouth there. China was also its predecessor's highest grossing market, with a total of almost $90 million. Meanwhile, The Sun is Also a Star didn't register at all with just $2.5 million.

As for holdovers, neither Endgame ($30 million, -53%) nor Detective Pikachu ($25 million, -54%) held all that well, and Endgame ($2.62 billion worldwide to date) is now thoroughly behind the pace it would need to beat Avatar. From here on out, Endgame would need weekly drops of approximately 33% to beat Avatar, versus the 50% range it's looking to settle into. As for Pikachu, it's likely to become the highest-grossing video game adaptation both domestically and worldwide. It's hard to say, though, if a potential $450 million worldwide finish with mediocre word of mouth is really good enough to nurture WB/Legendary's hoped-for franchise.
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scarletspeed7
05/21/19 8:32:00 PM
#86:


Yeah, I think Endgame is done at this point. No way it takes either title now, especially with Aladdin.
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MetalmindStats
05/24/19 1:08:50 AM
#87:


My domestic Memorial Day weekend predictions:

1. $67.1 million Aladdin ($85.0 million 4-day)
2. $26.2 million John Wick: Chapter 3 Parabellum ($33.5 million 4-day)
3. $14.8 million Avengers: Endgame ($18.9 million 4-day)
4. $13.0 million Pokmon Detective Pikachu ($17.7 million 4-day)
5. $7.8 million Brightburn ($9.7 million 4-day)
6. $7.5 million Booksmart ($9.4 million 4-day)
7. $5.0 million A Dogs Journey ($6.7 million 4-day)
8. $3.8 million The Hustle ($4.7 million 4-day)
9. $2.4 million The Intruder ($2.9 million 4-day)
10. $2.0 million Long Shot ($2.5 million 4-day)
11. $930,000 The Sun is Also a Star ($1.18 million 4-day)
12. $840,000 UglyDolls ($1.17 million 4-day)

This would be a pretty sad start for Aladdin, but it's simply not looking like it can even reach Solo levels, let alone the $100 million+ 3-day it should be doing.
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scarletspeed7
05/24/19 1:19:05 AM
#88:


I was predicting 65, so I'm right there with you.
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v_charon
05/25/19 1:12:38 PM
#89:


Aladdin overperforming based on early predix
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v_charon
05/26/19 12:58:41 PM
#90:


Aladdin gets 86m for the 3 day.
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v_charon
05/27/19 11:25:02 PM
#91:


And 113m for the long Memorial Day weekend; impressive considering the low expectations coming in.
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Maniac64
06/03/19 9:36:48 PM
#92:


So where did Endgame end up?
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MetalmindStats
06/03/19 10:56:26 PM
#93:


Maniac64 posted...
So where did Endgame end up?

Endgame's still in play pretty much everywhere except China, but it has no chance of beating Avatar. It's at $2.714 billion to date, and it will likely finish with about $2.75 billion worldwide, for a very strong second.

Also, here's weekend actuals: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

Practically the whole top 12 wound up below my already conservative (except for Aladdin) predictions, which is awful for Godzilla 2.
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TotallyNotMI
06/04/19 9:01:10 AM
#94:


Didn't Avatar have two releases to account for it being #1?
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XIII_rocks
06/04/19 9:03:27 AM
#95:


Yeah Forbes has gone from calling it a "coin toss" to "probably won't".
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MetalmindStats
06/04/19 7:03:34 PM
#96:


TotallyNotMI posted...
Didn't Avatar have two releases to account for it being #1?

Yes, but its original release already made $2.749 billion, according to Wikipedia.
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v_charon
06/04/19 8:11:40 PM
#97:


MetalmindStats posted...
Practically the whole top 12 wound up below my already conservative (except for Aladdin) predictions, which is awful for Godzilla 2.


Godzilla in fact lost to Aladdin every day but Friday.
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ClyTheCool
06/04/19 8:19:18 PM
#98:


60 mil seems so small in the overall total, like it's just a sneeze to get through, but it's funny to think that's the total gross most movies get at all.
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XIII_rocks
06/05/19 4:34:19 AM
#99:


Apparently Dark Phoenix is hot garbage

Kinda saw it coming but lame
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GildedFool
06/05/19 4:48:16 AM
#100:


I thought everyone saw that coming from a very long way away.
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