Board 8 > The Show EP 7 - Bowser Shocks, Tifa Rolls on, + Your 2nd Chance at $250 w/ Nick

(+) Yeah! (+)

Zelda/Auron could've been a good match in previous contests, but not anymore. I wish Tifa could beat Sephy, too. I think she can hold up like she did in 2010, but that would be a major hierarchy upheaval if she managed to win. Considering what we've seen from the HIERARCHY already, it seems unlikely. We've seen EVERY past result hold up this year, Ngamer!

I'm going back to my early roots by betting on Sonic against Zelda. We're really going to see what Sonic Mania is worth here. I also thought Sonic looked pretty solid in 2013. I think Zelda's being a little overvalued here because I still think that Squall result said more about him than her. Doing worse against Garrus than Ryu did against Shepard is pretty bad.

I mean, if we believe relevance AND nostalgia matter, Samus would be a good target to be a little weaker now! That being said, Samus is really in this nexus zone where it's hard for her to have good matches unless she's dropped quite a bit.

Yeah, Mega Man/Crono feels like the biggest tossup of the potential Noble Nine matches. I picked Mega Man, but I won't be surprised by whoever wins. I think I partially picked Mega Man like Nick so we could see Cloud/Mega Man instead of Cloud/Crono again.

We need SmartVoterFAQs to rise up to spare us from a Link/Mario final, whether it's Snake or Cloud. I think Mario > Snake, followed by Snake > Mario in the losers bracket finals is a great runback opportunity if you want to pick one.

Yeah, I finished on the leaderboard in 2007 because I had Cloud > Link. That was the last time picking Cloud to beat Link was the smart move...!

Another good episode of The Show, everyone!
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OMG check out the Little Rat That Could... save my bracket!

Europe's got no love for MM while they're all just crazy about Ryan Reynolds (I assume) so the Blue Bomber's as good as toast, and Link's shaking in his boots with pure Detective Fear!


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I mean we did all peg this one as the one
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This is the link to view the Second Chance bracket - https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/features/cbx_2c_mybracket

However, it currently doesn't work right now. I had to fill out a feedback ticket to get this problem fixed, so we'll probably get it fixed sometime tomorrow.
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Fuckin beautiful, my favorite one yet!
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I'm glad that the voters are smart enough to differentiate between similar versions of the same characters.

Megaman > Megaman X
Mario > Paper Mario
Link > Toon Link
Red > Generic Pokemon Trainer

All would be very different in strength.
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Paper Mario is the better Mario, though :(
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Paper Mario is the better Mario, though :(

I agree, just not in contest strength :)
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I already posted this in the Stats Topic, but I'll post it here as well.

KamikazePotato posted...

Votals are significantly down since the last match. Week long break seems to have stifled some momentum.

At this point into the match, I decided to compare these vote totals to those of our lowest voted match after the switch to a 7:00 PM EST starting time. Red/Alucard had the lowest vote totals after the November DST switch and that match had 12628 votes at 12:30 AM where as today's matches have 12025 and 12027 votes at the same point in the match. Red/Alucard finished with 28236 votes, so we're on track for less than 28000 votes. Although we could be suffering from reduced vote totals because Link/Ganondorf is an SFF match, on top of the casuals being surprised by the return of the contest.

If Mega Man holds on here and Pikachu gets past Ganondorf in the Loser bracket, we'll see a re-match of Mega Man/Pikachu that should get higher vote totals than today's matches. The higher vote totals could have implications on the possibility that Pikachu flips the match in his favor after losing the first time to Mega Man.
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well I think today's match might come up on the next episode of The Show

can't believe Link looks so vulnerable
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jacko_vdz posted...

I want to pull the trigger on Pikachu > Megaman or Zelda > Sonic but it just feels so wrong.

Good episode, should be an exciting week in contests.

Famous last words... My 2nd chance bracket could be BUSTED after the first day.
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yep PS1 MEga Man X4-6 is where X started the pacificsm thingy but X7 in particular is where he went overboard

Speaking of which I've been playing the X series and I honestly think X5 is better than X4. Sure there's no voice acting or whatever but I like that Zero actually has legit ways to take care of weaknesses, the music is better, gameplay is pretty much overall the same to me, sure there's some dumb RNG and I guess people dont like auto scrolling levels but overall everything else I like X5 more
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I'm just sad that Supercharged Noble Nine isn't going to be a thing.
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maybe this IS a super charged Noble Nine

Link is boned next round
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Though if this also puts Zelda above Snake, I'm all for it
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Noble Nine still going strong

them user double votes though
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LusterSoldier posted...

At this point into the match, I decided to compare these vote totals to those of our lowest voted match after the switch to a 7:00 PM EST starting time. Red/Alucard had the lowest vote totals after the November DST switch and that match had 12628 votes at 12:30 AM where as today's matches have 12025 and 12027 votes at the same point in the match. Red/Alucard finished with 28236 votes, so we're on track for less than 28000 votes. Although we could be suffering from reduced vote totals because Link/Ganondorf is an SFF match, on top of the casuals being surprised by the return of the contest.

If Mega Man holds on here and Pikachu gets past Ganondorf in the Loser bracket, we'll see a re-match of Mega Man/Pikachu that should get higher vote totals than today's matches. The higher vote totals could have implications on the possibility that Pikachu flips the match in his favor after losing the first time to Mega Man.

Okay then, looks like Pikachu ended up winning instead. Even then, we'll see a re-match of Mega Man/Pikachu in the Loser Bracket if Mega Man gets past Ganondorf and Pikachu loses to Link.

As for the vote totals of the recent Mega Man/Pikachu match, we were on track for less than 27000 votes based on our vote totals at 8:00 AM EST. We got to nearly 29000 votes instead. I still need to do some research to determine how many rallied votes we had, because there were rally attempts over on Reddit.

Even then, the re-match of Mega Man/Pikachu should get higher vote totals, which could swing the match in Mega Man's favor when the re-match arrives. The first 2 matches in the Legends Bracket was on track for some terrible vote totals because the casuals were surprised at the return of the contest after that 6 day break, and then you throw in the fact that we had an SFF match in Link/Ganondorf possibly hurting our vote totals even more.
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NO ONE CAN STOP DAPPER BOWSER!!

His elegance is beyond measure
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.
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Damn you Ryan Reynolds
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ZenOfThunder posted...

.

10/10
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Registered/Anonymous vote results at 12:00 PM EST with 7 hours remaining in the match

Mega Man vs. Pikachu
Registered Vote Result:
Mega Man - 3763 (49.31%)
Pikachu - 3869 (50.69%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Mega Man - 3940 (52.05%)
Pikachu - 3629 (47.95%)

Based on this, it appears that Pikachu had a pretty large advantage of nearly 3% with registered users before the rallies were activated on this match. It seems as though Pikachu actually had the larger rally compared to Mega Man because the final vote split only has Pikachu with about 1% advantage over Mega Man with registered users. This suggests Mega Man would have won in a rally-free environment, so a rematch in the Loser bracket may give us a different winner instead. We'll probably also see higher vote totals too, but I have no idea as to who would be favored with higher vote totals.

Registered/Anonymous vote results for the final 7 hours of votes

Mega Man vs. Pikachu
Registered Vote Result:
Mega Man - 791 (50.03%)
Pikachu - 790 (49.97%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Mega Man - 1348 (47.15%)
Pikachu - 1511 (52.85%)

So this confirms that Pikachu had the larger rally in this match, because Mega Man would have done better with the anonymous users if there had been no rally at all. Mega Man also had rallies of his own, but they were concentrated earlier in the day (between 9:00 AM and 2:30 PM).

I also did some research and concluded that we had about 800 rallied votes. At 9:00 AM in this match, we had 52.03% of our raw votes from registered users. The closest comparison I could find in a weekday match with a 7:00 PM start time was the Master Hand/Wario match, which had 51.69% registered users at 9:00 AM. Master Hand/Wario would ultimately end up with 48.48% registered users. Based on this, I estimated that we would have finished slightly below 49.00% registered users if the match remained completely unaffected by rallies. This allowed me to estimate that we had about 800 rallied votes in this match.
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Up we go.
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The Show is so good
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once again with feeling
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Great research, Luster and Zen!
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i made this gif but i guess it's no longer relevant:


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Ngamer64 posted...

OMG check out the Little Rat That Could... save my bracket!

Europe's got no love for MM while they're all just crazy about Ryan Reynolds (I assume) so the Blue Bomber's as good as toast, and Link's shaking in his boots with pure Detective Fear!

Nice job Ngamer, for calling this one correctly. Of course, this could go the other way in a rematch (for reasons outlined in an earlier post I made).

Tonight, we could be looking at another Noble Nine upset with Zelda currently in the lead over Snake, and all of this is happening before we even get to Zelda/Sonic.

We also have a more detailed stats page for this contest, including prediction stats for the Second Chance contest. When discussing the bracket prediction stats, you should discuss both the main contest and the Second Chance contest stats.
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Snaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaake
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Does this mean Snake/Squall would be closer now than 2010 or worse
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BK_Sheikah00 posted...

Does this mean Snake/Squall would be closer now than 2010 or worse

Worse. Squall broke 40% that year. Snake's percentage now would only be slightly worse than what Zelda got, so the ratio is actually getting closer to their match in 2002 again (although still a decent bit off).
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I finally corrected my grievous mistake of not listening to The Show! (Yes, I know.) Good stuff!

Some comments on specific points:
- I like Ngamer's Grand Unified Theory a lot, and frankly these results have generally been validating it so far.
- To me, Sephiroth beating Ryu so handily wasn't about Sephy being back in form so much as Ryu just not being up to near-elite status. To me, he had two very disappointing results beforehand (only narrowly exceeding 2010 Fox's result against Lloyd, following by failing to double KOS-MOS after she flopped in her previous matches), and then the Shepard beating which strikes me as being about Shepard. And as unfortunate as it was for Ryu not to keep up his 40%+ streak against Noble Niners, it makes sense - SFV was a failure bordering on fiasco levels, and we've seen that Smash alone isn't enough to keep a character strong and relevant.
- Zen's not just a star of the contest, he's the star imotbqh.
- I so badly wish I had given some sort of consideration to Pikachu's chances against Mega Man. I was too focused on that 2013 result, never mind Mega Man's adjusted 56% against Pikachu straight-up. That should have clued me in. Honestly, it's a shame that Pikachu gets fed to Link twice, especially given the Detective Pikachu x-factor.
- On the other hand, I'm sure glad I took Zelda over Sonic in my second chance bracket and made it not-cookie with Crono - too bad Crono looks like a longshot against Cloud and Samus.

Only 7.67% of second chance brackets took Zelda > Snake. Is this the most shocking "first round" upset ever?
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guaranteed there's something wrong with the numbers

tennisboy213 posted...

guaranteed there's something wrong with the numbers

This. They're all weird. Casuals should've had more faith in the winners of the last 4 matches, and probably less faith in Pikachu.
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I suspect the problem is that whatever fix was used to not simultaneously have Link and Pikachu in the Legends and Losers brackets also messed up the counting of correct second chance picks to make it so that correct picks from Cloud's match on are only listed as correct if both a user's main bracket and second chance bracket called them correctly.

OrangeCrush980 posted...

tennisboy213 posted...

guaranteed there's something wrong with the numbers

This. They're all weird. Casuals should've had more faith in the winners of the last 4 matches, and probably less faith in Pikachu.

Yeah, I can maybe buy casuals going for the Bowser upset, but 70% going with Auron seemed bizarre. What is going on here.
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Something's screwy, Luster please have Mister SB get to the bottom of this!


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squexa posted...

OrangeCrush980 posted...

tennisboy213 posted...

guaranteed there's something wrong with the numbers

This. They're all weird. Casuals should've had more faith in the winners of the last 4 matches, and probably less faith in Pikachu.

Yeah, I can maybe buy casuals going for the Bowser upset, but 70% going with Auron seemed bizarre. What is going on here.

Especially since Auron was a heavy underdog for his division.
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Ngamer64 posted...

Something's screwy, Luster please have Mister SB get to the bottom of this!

Okay, I'm on the job right now. Just sent in another feedback ticket to see if this can be fixed.
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You the man, Luster!
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SB just responded to me:

Message From GameFAQs on 11/30/2018
Pikachu was correct; but Sonic (and the rest) were not. Points were awarded properly, just the count was broken.

I specifically mentioned Pikachu and Sonic as examples of stats that I think were incorrect, but SB admits that Pikachu's number was correct.

Looking back on the stats page, the only ones that changed were Cloud/Crono/Zelda/Sonic.

Pikachu being correct is the most surprising thing because Board 8 got utterly humiliated by the casuals on this match. 82.50% of the site picked Mega Man to win based on the BOP stats - http://fghj.pw/cbx2/bop.php
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SB just responded to me:

Message From GameFAQs on 11/30/2018
Pikachu was correct; but Sonic (and the rest) were not. Points were awarded properly, just the count was broken.

I specifically mentioned Pikachu and Sonic as examples of stats that I think were incorrect, but SB admits that Pikachu's number was correct.

Looking back on the stats page, the only ones that changed were Cloud/Crono/Zelda/Sonic.

Pikachu being correct is the most surprising thing because Board 8 got utterly humiliated by the casuals on this match. 82.50% of the board picked Mega Man to win based on the BOP stats - http://fghj.pw/cbx2/bop.php
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Soooo there's nowhere to view tomorrow's match pictures until SB picks them tomorrow morning, right?


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From what I usually see match pics can be found an hour before the next match starts

Not sure if that's how it'll work on the weekend but Id assume so maybe hopefully?

Assuming sprite round sticks for the next matches in Losers Round 1 it'll likely be under Ulti's name
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Traditionally, Allen would upload the match pictures for Saturday/Sunday/Monday all at once on Friday so he doesn't have to deal with working on a weekend. I'm guessing he only uploaded today's match pictures at this point and the ones for Saturday/Sunday night haven't been uploaded yet.
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HELP where's my new match pics?!
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Ngamer64 posted...

HELP where's my new match pics?!

I haven't found them yet. Currently, I'm tracking 48 different match picture URLs and nothing has been found.

I'm guessing SB is going to upload them during the final hour before the next matches begin.
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