Current Events > New York City subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

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FLUFFYGERM
11/21/18 10:25:04 AM
#1:


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/20/new-york-city-subway-bus-death-spiral-mta-fares

MTA officials warned they may have to drastically cut service or increase fares as deficits are expected to hit nearly $1bn by 2022

New York Citys subway and bus service is already in crisis. It could be getting worse. And more expensive.

Officials at the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) warned last week that without a major infusion of cash, they will have to drastically cut service or increase fares on the system that carries millions of New Yorkers around the city.

Andy Byford the transit expert and veteran of the London Underground who was brought in almost a year ago to rescue the subway from a state many commuters considered rock bottom instead had to grapple with bad news.

We dont want to go down this road. We absolutely do not. Its anathema to me, Byford, the president of New York City Transit, said at a board meeting.

The systems financial straits have gotten worse in part because it has fewer riders, and is collecting less money in fares. Expected passenger revenue over a five-year period has dropped by $485m since July.

Theyve entered this death spiral, said Benjamin Kabak, who runs the transit website Second Avenue Sagas. The subway service and the bus service has become unreliable enough for people to stop using it. If people arent using it, theres less money, and they have to keep raising fares without delivering better service.

The authority is proposing a fare hike that would take effect in March. One option would raise the basic fare for a ride to $3 from the current $2.75. Another option would leave the base fare the same but increase the cost of monthly passes and eliminate bonuses for riders.

They are also proposing $41m a year in service cuts, mainly increasing the time between trains and buses on some routes. And, if approved, the plan would delay the launch of faster bus routes.

Those changes will still leave the MTA with massive deficits, expected to hit nearly $1bn a year by 2022.

To tackle those deficits, officials say they would have to cut service more drastically, or raise fares by an additional 15%.

All those troubles come without accounting for any money to pay for Byfords ambitious plan to actually turn around the crumbling subway system. That plan, which involves replacing an antiquated signal system that dates back to before the second world war, could cost $40bn.

The subway hit a crisis last year, when a state of emergency was declared. Delays more than tripled, from about 20,000 a month in 2012 to more than 67,450 in May 2017. The delays cost New Yorkers more than $300m in lost work time a year, an independent budget study found.

A year after an emergency plan was launched, more than a third of trains were still arriving late, though some modest improvements were notched this fall.

The MTAs chairman, Joe Lhota, abruptly resigned this month, effective immediately.

Things are moving slower than they were in 1950. And at the same time weve had three fare hikes. Riders are already paying more for less. This is in the richest city in the world, said Danny Pearlstein of the Riders Alliance.

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FLUFFYGERM
11/21/18 10:25:21 AM
#2:


The subway hit a crisis last year, when a state of emergency was declared. Delays more than tripled, from about 20,000 a month in 2012 to more than 67,450 in May 2017. The delays cost New Yorkers more than $300m in lost work time a year, an independent budget study found.

A year after an emergency plan was launched, more than a third of trains were still arriving late, though some modest improvements were notched this fall.

The MTAs chairman, Joe Lhota, abruptly resigned this month, effective immediately.

Things are moving slower than they were in 1950. And at the same time weve had three fare hikes. Riders are already paying more for less. This is in the richest city in the world, said Danny Pearlstein of the Riders Alliance.

Turning things around will require a huge infusion of cash. New Yorks governor, Andrew Cuomo, who controls the MTA, favors congestion pricing, which would charge drivers to enter prime areas of Manhattan.

But the congestion pricing plan went nowhere this year. After Democrats claimed control of the state senate, advocates hope it may have a better chance next year if Cuomo puts his political muscle behind it.

MTA officials point to growing competition from Uber and Lyft to explain their dropping ridership, plus riders sneaking in without paying. Critics say it is bad service that is driving people away.

Byford acknowledged sending mixed messages to New Yorkers.

Theyre saying: Well, hang on a minute, were paying more for worse service, he said. Well, one of the reasons why service is what it is is because we dont have enough funding If we dont have a fare rise, that only makes things worse. The hole gets even bigger. So until we can get these sustainable additional revenue streams, we really have no choice.

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EvalAngell
11/21/18 10:26:34 AM
#3:


de Blasio can't do anything right
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FLUFFYGERM
11/21/18 10:27:21 AM
#4:


EvalAngell posted...
de Blasio can't do anything right


I wonder what Princess Cortez thinks the solution is and how she might try to influence other states into going down NYC's path.
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AlephZero
11/21/18 10:27:38 AM
#5:


who could have forseen that paying everyone $400k a year pensions for life would cost a lot of money
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Bio1590
11/21/18 10:28:30 AM
#6:


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FLUFFYGERM
11/21/18 10:28:43 AM
#7:


AlephZero posted...
who could have forseen that paying everyone $400k a year pensions for life would cost a lot of money


Shhhh just raise the taxes in NYC some more so that all the productive people leave.
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Darkman124
11/21/18 10:28:43 AM
#8:


Sad situation. Fare increase seems the logical route. Sucks that there's so much resistance to it. Here in DC, the metro is virtually unusable (outside peak hours) and I just drive everywhere. Thought of NYC as what our system ought to be. So much for that!

Idea that uber/lyft is hurting public transit seems odd though. Those services cost far more.
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EvalAngell
11/21/18 10:28:51 AM
#9:


AlephZero posted...
who could have forseen that paying everyone $400k a year pensions for life would cost a lot of money


my cousin is a retired conductor and i can assure you his pension is not that much lol

I don't buy for a second that Uber/Lyft have caused this. Nobody wants to use a cab to travel around NYC. It's suicide if you're in a rush to get anywhere. Subway will always be the best way to travel around the city.
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FLUFFYGERM
11/21/18 10:30:38 AM
#10:


Anyway, all shitposting about taxes aside. We really should just earmark like...$500 billion in federal funds for a one-time investment into major city infrastructure including expanding access outward. High-speed rail, state of the art.

Hell, make it $1 trillion over 10 years or however long it'd take to make the upgrade. Just get it done.

Of course as we've seen in California's attempts to fund high-speed rail upgrades, it'll be over budget and way behind schedule and we'd likely never see any results.
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Questionmarktarius
11/21/18 10:31:17 AM
#11:


Simple solution: luxury bus.
https://www.wanderu.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/limoliner-seats-770x513.jpg

Charge four or five times what it actually costs to run, and let elitist whales subsidize the rest of the system voluntarily via conspicuous consumption.
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FLUFFYGERM
11/21/18 10:32:07 AM
#12:


Questionmarktarius posted...
Simple solution: luxury bus.
https://www.wanderu.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/limoliner-seats-770x513.jpg

Charge four or five times what it actually costs to run, and let elitist whales subsidize the rest of the system voluntarily via conspicuous consumption.


This is an interesting proposal. Have you seen the film Snowpiercer?
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Jagr_68
11/21/18 10:33:01 AM
#13:


Fuck yes! $20.50 standard ride fare confirmed!
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King_Hellebuyck
11/21/18 10:34:03 AM
#14:


It sucks but they need to improve services to bring back riders, which is an expensive first step for something losing money. But I imagine that the long term economic benefit of allowing cheap travel throughout the city would still end up greater than the costs of fixing it. Like even if the MTA itself loses money, its still a net positive if it creates enough tax revenue by getting people where they need to be to spend their money.
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SK8T3R215
11/21/18 10:39:48 AM
#15:


They just have to stop running it 24 hours a day 7 days a week to make the repairs. The fare hikes are basically in line with inflation and happen every 2 years.
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FLUFFYGERM
11/21/18 10:46:54 AM
#16:


SK8T3R215 posted...
They just have to stop running it 24 hours a day 7 days a week to make the repairs. The fare hikes are basically in line with inflation and happen every 2 years.


Right but they're also still using technology from the WW2 era which is just embarrassing.

If there was ever an open and shut case for why we should use taxpayer dollars to invest in infrastructure I'd say that's it. We shouldn't be stuck with technology from the 30s and 40s and 50s when it's 2018 and America pulls in like 4 trillion a year.

What are the negative consequences of investing a couple trillion in nation-wide infrastructure repairs/ugprades?
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EvalAngell
11/21/18 10:51:27 AM
#17:


FLUFFYGERM posted...
Right but they're also still using technology from the WW2 era which is just embarrassing.


outside of teleportation or some kind of speed chunnel, how could the subway be made any better?
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#18
Post #18 was unavailable or deleted.
Balrog0
11/21/18 10:53:05 AM
#19:


Darkman124 posted...
Sad situation. Fare increase seems the logical route. Sucks that there's so much resistance to it. Here in DC, the metro is virtually unusable (outside peak hours) and I just drive everywhere. Thought of NYC as what our system ought to be. So much for that!

Idea that uber/lyft is hurting public transit seems odd though. Those services cost far more.


People really value their time more than their money, and they also value the form of transit they take over both. So, for instance, people are willing to pay both a cash premium and a cost in time to take trains rather than buses -- that is, people as a general rule would rather take a 20 minute train ride than a 10 minute bus ride. I have to imagine the preference for cars is even greater than that, especially when you factor in it being a time saver.

That's all part of the death spiral, though. It's tough because the best way to driver ridership is to have a system with frequent vehicles (every 15 minutes is ideal, less during peak hours) but that's obviously expensive to do.

FLUFFYGERM posted...
Anyway, all shitposting about taxes aside. We really should just earmark like...$500 billion in federal funds for a one-time investment into major city infrastructure including expanding access outward. High-speed rail, state of the art.

Hell, make it $1 trillion over 10 years or however long it'd take to make the upgrade. Just get it done.

Of course as we've seen in California's attempts to fund high-speed rail upgrades, it'll be over budget and way behind schedule and we'd likely never see any results.


This is an awful idea. So much of the problem with everything we finance with public money in this country is the short ass time horizons our investments have. We pay for construction and then put no money towards maintenance, which skews our built environment towards more wasteful forms of spending. I say this all the time about highways and I think public transit mega projects suffer the same problem
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Alpha218
11/21/18 11:00:04 AM
#20:


Good thing Christie and Trump have done their best to put a stop to the Gateway Tunnel project. Making a bad situation even worse so they can play petty politics
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JE19426
11/21/18 11:07:41 AM
#21:


Spooking posted...
Cities like NYC always mismanage money.


NYC doesn't run the subway, so I don't see why you think that's relevant.
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runuts27
11/21/18 11:08:25 AM
#22:


The subways were supposed to be upgraded decades ago, they have enough money to do it but they take
money away from the MTA and spend it on dumb shit.
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Squall28
11/21/18 11:10:39 AM
#23:


What have riders been using instead? I imagine driving is still awful.
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Questionmarktarius
11/21/18 11:22:45 AM
#24:


FLUFFYGERM posted...
This is an interesting proposal. Have you seen the film Snowpiercer?

...to the Netflix queue!
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Romulox28
11/21/18 11:24:45 AM
#25:


Squall28 posted...
What have riders been using instead? I imagine driving is still awful.

you dont have a choice if your destination is not within walking distance & you dont have time for uber/taxi
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Questionmarktarius
11/21/18 11:29:43 AM
#26:


FLUFFYGERM posted...
What are the negative consequences of investing a couple trillion in nation-wide infrastructure repairs/ugprades?

We lost sight of promoting the general welfare, in the pursuit of the welfare state.
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tennisdude818
11/21/18 11:30:43 AM
#27:


Darkman124 posted...
Sad situation. Fare increase seems the logical route. Sucks that there's so much resistance to it. Here in DC, the metro is virtually unusable (outside peak hours) and I just drive everywhere. Thought of NYC as what our system ought to be. So much for that!

Idea that uber/lyft is hurting public transit seems odd though. Those services cost far more.


I just moved to DC from LA. Compared to the LA metro, coming to DC is like traveling into the future.
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Tyranthraxus
11/21/18 11:31:26 AM
#28:


FLUFFYGERM posted...
EvalAngell posted...
de Blasio can't do anything right


I wonder what Princess Cortez thinks the solution is and how she might try to influence other states into going down NYC's path.


Who cares what she thinks. How about you? What do you think? Any great ideas on how to make the mass transit system profitable?
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Damn_Underscore
11/21/18 11:33:28 AM
#29:


The real solution to problems like this is an increase in taxes for everyone, but no one has the balls to go through with it.
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Balrog0
11/21/18 11:33:34 AM
#30:


tennisdude818 posted...
I just moved to DC from LA. Compared to the LA metro, coming to DC is like traveling into the future.


Man the trains in LA were so shitty when I was there. tbh its been like 5 years but I dont imagine they've improved much
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kingdrake2
11/21/18 11:38:11 AM
#31:


Squall28 posted...
What have riders been using instead? I imagine driving is still awful.


there's taxi which i heard is far more than the cost of a subway ride. they might have buses in NYC but with the traffic i bet it isn't feasible.

though there was a time when our local bus service had to make changes because of fraud. to put it in a short manner they increased fares about 100% and decreased the amount of times the buses run in a day.

think this year they ran back into the black lowered fares about 75% of the original price and increased buses at certain times of the day.
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tennisdude818
11/21/18 11:39:38 AM
#32:


Balrog0 posted...
tennisdude818 posted...
I just moved to DC from LA. Compared to the LA metro, coming to DC is like traveling into the future.


Man the trains in LA were so shitty when I was there. tbh its been like 5 years but I dont imagine they've improved much


It's bad and their range is extremely limited. But riding is super cheap.
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CruelBuffalo
11/21/18 11:44:33 AM
#33:


FLUFFYGERM posted...
Anyway, all shitposting about taxes aside. We really should just earmark like...$500 billion in federal funds for a one-time investment into major city infrastructure including expanding access outward. High-speed rail, state of the art.

Hell, make it $1 trillion over 10 years or however long it'd take to make the upgrade. Just get it done.

Of course as we've seen in California's attempts to fund high-speed rail upgrades, it'll be over budget and way behind schedule and we'd likely never see any results.


Republicans told Elaine Chao to not grand any money towards rail projects. Diane Fianstein had to use her political capital to get Caltrain ALREADY APPROVED FUNDING to actually be funded from the Sec of Transportation. So go talk to your lil friends lol

EvalAngell posted...
FLUFFYGERM posted...
Right but they're also still using technology from the WW2 era which is just embarrassing.


outside of teleportation or some kind of speed chunnel, how could the subway be made any better?


Hoping The Boring Company will find a way to reduce the cost of tunneling but from what I've seen they want to build tunnels for private cars lol
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Zikten
11/21/18 11:45:28 AM
#34:


Well that sucks. I always associate the subway system with New York and am jealous of it. Didn't know they were having problems
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tennisdude818
11/21/18 11:53:00 AM
#35:


Amazon ought to at least bring in a big increase in Subway use.
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DanHarenChamp
11/21/18 11:57:24 AM
#36:


I wouldn't mind my west coast federal tax dollars going towards the NY subway revamping. I've used the subway numerous times for work and leisure and its super convenient. I also used to take the bus from north jersey to port authority all the time, right outside the NY times building. Do what it takes, if the subway goes down, we all lose.

And increasing fares is more than reasonable. $3 is pretty reasonable still for how convenient it is.
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pikachupwnage
11/21/18 12:04:30 PM
#37:


Zikten posted...
Well that sucks. I always associate the subway system with New York and am jealous of it. Didn't know they were having problems


You know you are fucked when NYC subway system is something you aspire to be like.
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Zikten
11/21/18 12:06:48 PM
#38:


pikachupwnage posted...
Zikten posted...
Well that sucks. I always associate the subway system with New York and am jealous of it. Didn't know they were having problems


You know you are fucked when NYC subway system is something you aspire to be like.

I just am jealous of them having subways. I think they are very cool and convenient. but never lived in a city with them. I prefer them to buses.
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BlingBling22947
11/21/18 1:42:07 PM
#39:


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/400-current-events/77222490
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Holy_Cloud105
11/21/18 1:49:29 PM
#40:


I'm so glad de Blasio and Cuomo had that pissing contest this year about who should pay for the MTA to get fixed. Since I can remember in the mid 90s taking the MTA was shit and the fare then was like $1.25. Money kept mysteriously disappearing leading to fare hikes.
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RiderofHogs
11/21/18 2:06:10 PM
#41:


Just give up the subways and let the mole people have them.
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#42
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Vol2tex
11/21/18 7:07:45 PM
#43:


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Amatsukaze
11/22/18 4:44:33 AM
#44:


Questionmarktarius posted...
Simple solution: luxury bus.
https://www.wanderu.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/limoliner-seats-770x513.jpg

Charge four or five times what it actually costs to run, and let elitist whales subsidize the rest of the system voluntarily via conspicuous consumption.


This would get me to use public transit.
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AvantgardeAClue
11/22/18 4:49:52 AM
#45:


Something is fucking broke everytime I take the train in NYC

I hope they get Bird scooters because realistically that'll be faster sometimes
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