Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 208 is Canceled Due to Rain

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StealThisSheen
11/21/18 10:32:12 PM
#301:


Yeah we should be talking about which girls have cooties and which boys we could beat in an arm wrestling contest instead
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Peace___Frog
11/21/18 10:33:14 PM
#302:


LapisLazuli posted...
Saying yinz is bad.

That's not a thing humans do.

I say it on a weekly ish basis. It just comes out.

Typing it is a lot rarer and silly, but I've done it from time to time.

Corrik may not have normal human emotions, but I don't think he's an alien trying to pass as human.
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Corrik
11/21/18 10:35:14 PM
#303:


If you wanna debate something of worth, maybe debate how appeasing Saudi Arabia here could be putting America First.
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StealThisSheen
11/21/18 10:36:53 PM
#304:


"If you wanna debate something of worth, debate whether Trump is just fantastic or ball-busting magnificent."

Sure, you do that
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LapisLazuli
11/21/18 10:42:16 PM
#305:


Peace___Frog posted...
Corrik may not have normal human emotions, but I don't think he's an alien trying to pass as human.


Are yinz completely sure?
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xp1337
11/21/18 11:08:35 PM
#306:


I planned on avoiding pointing out the Gabbard thing because I didn't want us to predictably launch into another argument about her. But since we're already there I'll say that while I don't think she's wrong about Trump here... she's pretty much throwing stones in a glass house.

As far as "it's about being against regime change!" sorry, nope. There is a very big difference between "maybe he did or maybe he didn't!" and "Look, what happened was horrific and a war crime, but I don't believe we should commit our military to another war in the Middle East, etc." If you oversimplified them, both of those statements could be boiled down to "against regime change" but they are very different and should be treated as such.

If she wanted to argue the latter, so be it. But casting doubt on the responsibility in the first place is in the same lane as the "we may never know!" tactics to try and muddy the waters. Trump is obviously the one using it the most in the US these days but it's another tactic he's imported.
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xp1337
11/21/18 11:32:12 PM
#307:


Also, a retrospective on 538's models:

538 Projection:

House: D+39
Senate: R+1 (rounded from 0.5)
Governor: D+8

Reality:

House: D+39 (with CA-21 still outstanding. Narrow R lead, but as provisionals have been coming in the Democrat has cut the lead. But they aren't going to continue counting this week so boo. Would be a D gain if the Democrat wins)
Senate: R+2
Governor: D+7

So basically, 538's model was a Florida away from being perfect. (And possibly even underestimating the House slightly if CA-21 goes blue to bring the number to 40 pickups.)
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red sox 777
11/21/18 11:33:50 PM
#308:


Trump just doesn't do the middle way. Either you're a friend or an enemy in his world, you can't be in the middle. Machiavelli recommends this but I kinda feel that MBS is so obviously guilty this isn't going to be an effective strategy here?
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red sox 777
11/21/18 11:36:30 PM
#309:


xp1337 posted...
Also, a retrospective on 538's models:

538 Projection:

House: D+39
Senate: R+1 (rounded from 0.5)
Governor: D+8

Reality:

House: D+39 (with CA-21 still outstanding. Narrow R lead, but as provisionals have been coming in the Democrat has cut the lead. But they aren't going to continue counting this week so boo. Would be a D gain if the Democrat wins)
Senate: R+2
Governor: D+7

So basically, 538's model was a Florida away from being perfect. (And possibly even underestimating the House slightly if CA-21 goes blue to bring the number to 40 pickups.)


Wow. About as perfect as their 2012 predictions. A hint to predictors of future elections - think about what you know that you think 538's model doesn't know. If you don't have anything it doesn't know, you don't have anything really to add that would make your prediction better.
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Suprak the Stud
11/21/18 11:38:18 PM
#310:


xp1337 posted...
Also, a retrospective on 538's models:

538 Projection:

House: D+39
Senate: R+1 (rounded from 0.5)
Governor: D+8

Reality:

House: D+39 (with CA-21 still outstanding. Narrow R lead, but as provisionals have been coming in the Democrat has cut the lead. But they aren't going to continue counting this week so boo. Would be a D gain if the Democrat wins)
Senate: R+2
Governor: D+7

So basically, 538's model was a Florida away from being perfect. (And possibly even underestimating the House slightly if CA-21 goes blue to bring the number to 40 pickups.)


That house prediction is bonkers. Like, absolutely outstanding. This was their first year doing it so I thought they'd need some time perfecting it. It is crazy how perfect they were on just about everything.
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ChaosTonyV4
11/21/18 11:41:24 PM
#311:


xp1337 posted...
As far as "it's about being against regime change!" sorry, nope. There is a very big difference between "maybe he did or maybe he didn't!" and "Look, what happened was horrific and a war crime, but I don't believe we should commit our military to another war in the Middle East, etc." If you oversimplified them, both of those statements could be boiled down to "against regime change" but they are very different and should be treated as such.


The thing youre missing is that its both.

Maybe he did or maybe he didnt, AND I dont believe we should commit our military (and the Syrian people) to another war.

Dont forget that the US originally armed and trained the rebels not to overthrow Assad, but to pressure him to come to the table.

When Russia started backing him up, the US was in a lose-lose situation, in terms of do we support them further and risk Syria turning into Libya, or (more) Russian troops being killed and war with Russia? Or a dozen other pretty much all negative results for the Syrian people.
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ChaosTonyV4
11/21/18 11:46:13 PM
#312:


Suprak the Stud posted...
xp1337 posted...
Also, a retrospective on 538's models:

538 Projection:

House: D+39
Senate: R+1 (rounded from 0.5)
Governor: D+8

Reality:

House: D+39 (with CA-21 still outstanding. Narrow R lead, but as provisionals have been coming in the Democrat has cut the lead. But they aren't going to continue counting this week so boo. Would be a D gain if the Democrat wins)
Senate: R+2
Governor: D+7

So basically, 538's model was a Florida away from being perfect. (And possibly even underestimating the House slightly if CA-21 goes blue to bring the number to 40 pickups.)


That house prediction is bonkers. Like, absolutely outstanding. This was their first year doing it so I thought they'd need some time perfecting it. It is crazy how perfect they were on just about everything.


And yet I still see people on the Right talking about how the Leftwing Media got it wrong.
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PerfectChaosZ
11/21/18 11:51:59 PM
#313:


"I don't know if he did it, so I'll remain neutral." is different than "I don't know if he did it, so CONTINUE HAVING ALL THE GUNS HERE HAVE SOME MORE BUDDY."
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LordoftheMorons
11/22/18 2:30:37 AM
#314:


https://twitter.com/normative/status/1064982821779980291
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metroid composite
11/22/18 10:53:12 AM
#315:


Well, as much as I tend to criticize people for mentioning Hillary when I think she's basically irrelevant now, here's a take I wasn't expecting her to make.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/22/hillary-clinton-europe-must-curb-immigration-stop-populists-trump-brexit

Hillary saying that Europe should take hardline anti-immigration stances.
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LapisLazuli
11/22/18 10:55:42 AM
#316:


Give the right what they want so they'll shut up.

Wow what a pathetic stance. Basically saying you should let a bully beat you up until they get bored.
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Jakyl25
11/22/18 10:56:51 AM
#317:


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Kenri
11/22/18 10:57:44 AM
#318:


That kind of stuff is why I say Hillary's a right-wing politician.
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Reg
11/22/18 11:00:46 AM
#319:


Kenri posted...
That kind of stuff is why I say Hillary's a right-wing politician.

She isn't?

She just happens to live in a country where anything that isn't "Extreme far right" is classified as "Left" by a large number of idiots
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Kenri
11/22/18 11:02:27 AM
#320:


Reg posted...
She just happens to live in a country where anything that isn't "Extreme far right" is classified as "Left" by a large number of idiots

This is kind of exactly what I'm saying, yeah. <_<
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Jakyl25
11/22/18 11:05:41 AM
#321:


It reminds me of the people who are like We need to have a respectful dialogue with the people who show up to marches wearing Nazi regalia! Well defeat them in the marketplace of ideas!
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Reg
11/22/18 11:06:14 AM
#322:


Kenri posted...
Reg posted...
She just happens to live in a country where anything that isn't "Extreme far right" is classified as "Left" by a large number of idiots

This is kind of exactly what I'm saying, yeah. <_<

Right, I was agreeing with you.
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Kenri
11/22/18 11:07:13 AM
#323:


Oh I took your "She isn't?" as disagreeing with me. My bad!
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CeraSeptem
11/22/18 12:16:48 PM
#324:


No, you guys are fighting now.

TAKE OUT HIS KNEES
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Hardcore_Adult
11/22/18 12:29:54 PM
#325:


CeraSeptem posted...
No, you guys are fighting now.

TAKE OUT HIS KNEES


NO! UNACCEPTABLE!

Sweep the leg.
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ChaosTonyV4
11/22/18 12:50:27 PM
#326:


Hillary sucks? Surely you jest.
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LordoftheMorons
11/22/18 4:08:15 PM
#327:


Repeat of VA last year in Alaska: control of the State House might be decided by a coin toss
https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1065428045274759169
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red sox 777
11/22/18 5:12:52 PM
#328:


I think Hillary is trying to set up her 2020 run. She's decided she needs to reinvent herself as a centrist, that she's viewed as too far left.
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red sox 777
11/22/18 5:14:16 PM
#329:


In fairness to Hillary, one of her good qualities is that she's always willing to change if that's the will of the voters.
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Crossfiyah
11/23/18 11:28:30 AM
#330:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
Suprak the Stud posted...
xp1337 posted...
Also, a retrospective on 538's models:

538 Projection:

House: D+39
Senate: R+1 (rounded from 0.5)
Governor: D+8

Reality:

House: D+39 (with CA-21 still outstanding. Narrow R lead, but as provisionals have been coming in the Democrat has cut the lead. But they aren't going to continue counting this week so boo. Would be a D gain if the Democrat wins)
Senate: R+2
Governor: D+7

So basically, 538's model was a Florida away from being perfect. (And possibly even underestimating the House slightly if CA-21 goes blue to bring the number to 40 pickups.)


That house prediction is bonkers. Like, absolutely outstanding. This was their first year doing it so I thought they'd need some time perfecting it. It is crazy how perfect they were on just about everything.


And yet I still see people on the Right talking about how the Leftwing Media got it wrong.


Still waiting on Ulti to admit that he's full of shit and Nate Silver isn't a stooge for ABC or whatever insanity he was spouting for the last two years.
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Eddv
11/23/18 2:22:12 PM
#331:


xp1337 posted...
Also, a retrospective on 538's models:

538 Projection:

House: D+39
Senate: R+1 (rounded from 0.5)
Governor: D+8

Reality:

House: D+39 (with CA-21 still outstanding. Narrow R lead, but as provisionals have been coming in the Democrat has cut the lead. But they aren't going to continue counting this week so boo. Would be a D gain if the Democrat wins)
Senate: R+2
Governor: D+7

So basically, 538's model was a Florida away from being perfect. (And possibly even underestimating the House slightly if CA-21 goes blue to bring the number to 40 pickups.)


For instance this was Harry Entens to do projection.

He got the Senate but missed the house by 10 seats
Final forecast House median: Democrats 227, GOP 208. Final forecast House average: Democrats 229, GOP 206. Final forecast Senate: GOP 52, Dem 48. Margin of error wide enough for a GOP House or Dem Senate. https://t.co/uC06Sit4PM
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Crossfiyah
11/23/18 4:23:06 PM
#332:


My roommate's team published the new National Climate Change Assessment today.

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/?fbclid=IwAR1dwWs6UXm_qCeQq3edHZrjsIf9dIQtJ2i2ML6RTOmDkTH-rXBzziJW0aM

We're still fucked. But now you can see how fucked your region is in particular.
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ChaosTonyV4
11/24/18 12:12:58 AM
#333:


https://apple.news/AVz5YpaPTQMKqnjIkSuSsdw

Sessions is out, and Trump is STILL going after the LGBT community in the military.

Imaginemyshock.gif
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Suprak the Stud
11/24/18 12:21:14 AM
#334:


No, no, you're mistaken.

He held a flag one time.
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DeepsPraw
11/24/18 6:51:41 AM
#335:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
Sessions is out, and Trump is STILL going after the LGBT community in the military.


yeah I find it hard to care about this issue. the right to be an imperialist murderer isn't a right worth fighting for
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LapisLazuli
11/24/18 8:54:24 AM
#336:


Twitter with a big update to their ToS. If enforced the alt right could be done on there.

https://help.twitter.com/en/rules-and-policies/hateful-conduct-policy
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Peace___Frog
11/24/18 10:22:00 AM
#337:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
https://apple.news/AVz5YpaPTQMKqnjIkSuSsdw

Sessions is out, and Trump is STILL going after the LGBT community in the military.

Imaginemyshock.gif

"The most lgbt friendly president ever" are the words our resident troll used, iirc.
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Corrik
11/24/18 10:22:36 AM
#338:


Twitter drops the ball. Didn't add political affiliation.
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Suprak the Stud
11/24/18 11:51:35 AM
#339:


DeepsPraw posted...
ChaosTonyV4 posted...
Sessions is out, and Trump is STILL going after the LGBT community in the military.


yeah I find it hard to care about this issue. the right to be an imperialist murderer isn't a right worth fighting for


This is like three different kinds of terrible, so that's pretty impressive I guess.
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PerfectChaosZ
11/25/18 6:05:57 PM
#340:


So the US just started firing tear gas at families and kids at the border moments ago.
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Reg
11/25/18 6:44:44 PM
#341:


PerfectChaosZ posted...
So the US just started firing tear gas at families and kids at the border moments ago.

What the actual fuck
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PerfectChaosZ
11/25/18 6:46:13 PM
#342:


A three year old is now dead.
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CelesMyUserName
11/25/18 6:51:46 PM
#343:


What the mother fucking god damn hell
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HarrietTubgirl
11/25/18 6:52:09 PM
#344:


PerfectChaosZ posted...
So the US just started firing tear gas at families and kids at the border moments ago.

They should probably disperse then!
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HarrietTubgirl
11/25/18 6:54:14 PM
#345:


PerfectChaosZ posted...
A three year old is now dead.

Do you have a source other than hysterical obsessives on Twitter?
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HarrietTubgirl
11/25/18 6:56:02 PM
#346:


"Sovereign nation defends its border"

Why is this newsworthy?
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CelesMyUserName
11/25/18 7:02:00 PM
#347:


gassing children to own the libs
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HarrietTubgirl
11/25/18 7:04:26 PM
#348:


Containing people who are literally infiltrating the country illegally.

https://twitter.com/breaking9111/status/1066797943494193152?s=19

Fair, next.
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red sox 777
11/25/18 7:17:37 PM
#349:


The US is repelling an invasion. Most countries would be using greater force than this.
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xp1337
11/25/18 7:22:22 PM
#350:


A reminder that the courts have reaffirmed that you can apply for asylum even if you enter the country illegally.
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