Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 205: A House Divided Senate Stand

(+) Yeah! (+)

I'm sorry.
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I will say this - the lede has mostly been buried here.

The incumbent party has been leading the country through its greatest period of growth and lowest unemployment since the fucking 60s and still lost control of congress.

The question isn't "how did the Democrats not win in a single swing state" its "how the fuck was the GOP even in peril at all?"

The answer is Trump -- and it won't even take an economic downturn for that to turn worse for the GOP. Just for the cap on growth to get bumped into which is going to happen because our labor pool is pretty much tapped out.

Too bad there aren't like...thousands of immigrants trying to get into the country that could fill such a need, eh?
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Lopen is more vigilant about the politics tag than any government oversight committee is about anything
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Beto just said Im so FUCKING proud of you guys in his concession speech.
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Okay, seriously, what the hell is going on with my state's gubernatorial race? I'm not saying that polls are 100% to be trusted, and hell, we're coming off the second-worst governor in the country (FUCK YOU, KANSAS GUY!) but you'd think there would at least be a HINT that people were overwhelmingly gonna vote Stefanowski. I mean, we're not even a state that purely votes Dems for governor. So how were the polls so wrong?
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To re-ask a Question from last Topic

What does the lame duck GOP Congress do now?
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Eddv posted...

I will say this - the lede has mostly been buried here.

The incumbent party has been leading the country through its greatest period of growth and lowest unemployment since the fucking 60s and still lost control of congress.

The question isn't "how did the Democrats not win in a single swing state" its "how the fuck was the GOP even in peril at all?"

The answer is Trump -- and it won't even take an economic downturn for that to turn worse for the GOP. Just for the cap on growth to get bumped into which is going to happen because our labor pool is pretty much tapped out.

Too bad there aren't like...thousands of immigrants trying to get into the country that could fill such a need, eh?

This is my general feeling too. A strong economy should have mitigated losses in the House but Trump is just that disliked. Fucking throw in Jeb and he's talking Republican supermajorities.
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Brian Williams: Sorry about the F-Bomb, uh, we have no control over whats said in Concession speeches.
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Inviso posted...

Okay, seriously, what the hell is going on with my state's gubernatorial race? I'm not saying that polls are 100% to be trusted, and hell, we're coming off the second-worst governor in the country (FUCK YOU, KANSAS GUY!) but you'd think there would at least be a HINT that people were overwhelmingly gonna vote Stefanowski. I mean, we're not even a state that purely votes Dems for governor. So how were the polls so wrong?

538 gave the republicans a 1/5 chance there. It wasn't a sure seat at all!
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Inviso posted...

So how were the polls so wrong?

THEY. ARE. ALWAYS. WRONG AND/OR LYING TO YOU.

The polls were overall very accurate for this election
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THE. FROGS. ARE. GaAAAAAaAAAAaAAAY
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TheRock1525 posted...

This is my general feeling too. A strong economy should have mitigated losses in the House but Trump is just that disliked. f***ing throw in Jeb and he's talking Republican supermajorities.

Throw in Jeb and Hillary wins though

Thats the conundrum of Trump. He energizes people on both sides based purely on how he treats immigration, and Jeb was pro amnesty
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I am really impressed how close 538 was on their house projection. Way better than anywhere else I was looking at.
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Its mostly because social media usage is down the past year or so, causing people to not get caught up in the fever pitch that it causes. The social media stuff that is still growing is more private usage.

https://www.convinceandconvert.com/social-media-measurement/6-unexpected-trends-in-2018-social-media-research/
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Please don't quote him, LotM. I have him blocked for a reason.
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Inviso posted...

Please don't quote him, LotM. I have him blocked for a reason.

Lmao
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Losses in mid terms for controlling party are to be expected. Not a big deal. Senate gains were a big deal. Especially with the removal of anti Trump senators.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

I am really impressed how close 538 was on their house projection. Way better than anywhere else I was looking at.

If it ends up being +33 then CNN nailed it right on. 538 was +38 last predicted.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

I am really impressed how close 538 was on their house projection. Way better than anywhere else I was looking at.

yeah i'm not sure what y'all are talking about

polls aren't bound to be 100% accurate but 538 had most of these down fairly closely
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Corrik posted...

Losses in mid terms for controlling party are to be expected. Not a big deal. Senate gains were a big deal. Especially with the removal of anti Trump senators.

Are you saying McCain was removed?
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LordoftheMorons posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

Inviso posted...

So how were the polls so wrong?

THEY. ARE. ALWAYS. WRONG AND/OR LYING TO YOU.

The polls were overall very accurate for this election

Rasmussen, the Ulti approved poll, gave Republicans a 46-45 lead on generic congressional ballots in their final poll.

They're gonna be off by 10 fucking points.

Think Ulti will admit to that?
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Looks like Arizona is the "Fuck Independent Voters" race this year.
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Corrik posted...

Losses in mid terms for controlling party are to be expected. Not a big deal. Senate gains were a big deal. Especially with the removal of anti Trump senators.

There is some things they can do, yes.

But a flip of the house (especially with as big of a majority as the Dems are looking at) is going to be a major headache for Trump. It isn't a good thing. I hope he focuses on the areas he actually agrees with democrats on (paid family leave, infrastructure, etc) because I am 100% positive he can whip the senate to do whatever he wants.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

Corrik posted...

Losses in mid terms for controlling party are to be expected. Not a big deal. Senate gains were a big deal. Especially with the removal of anti Trump senators.

There is some things they can do, yes.

But a flip of the house (especially with as big of a majority as the Dems are looking at) is going to be a major headache for Trump. It isn't a good thing. I hope he focuses on the areas he actually agrees with democrats on (paid family leave, infrastructure, etc) because I am 100% positive he can whip the senate to do whatever he wants.

Hopefully the split Congress will help Trump bridge the divide with bipartisanship. If Dems dig in their heels and go fuck Trump the next 2 years and don't work with the Repubs then well not much he can do there then.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

I hope he focuses on the areas he actually agrees with democrats on (paid family leave, infrastructure, etc)

Corrik posted...

Hopefully the split Congress will help Trump bridge the divide with bipartisanship.

LOL at the idea that Trump has actual beliefs
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Jakyl25 posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

I hope he focuses on the areas he actually agrees with democrats on (paid family leave, infrastructure, etc)

Corrik posted...

Hopefully the split Congress will help Trump bridge the divide with bipartisanship.

LOL at the idea that Trump has actual beliefs

Well, in the areas he has vocally supported in the past then!
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To be fair, remember how they managed to briefly agree to DACA without a border wall in a meeting?

Maybe there being more Dems in the House they can trick him a few more times.
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I'd love to stay up to see how Nevada and Arizona shake out but they are literally not even updating.

Rosendale appears to be closing on tester though.
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tony just got overtaken by scott walker

edit: and then just took the lead by a slim margin again
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Trump called to congratulate Pelosi. Like an hour after Sarah Sanders said why would he do that? Lol
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The most important question is. If walker loses will the Dem governor pardon Brendan dassey and Steve Avery.
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Nelson concedes

Florida continues it's long tradition of narrowly letting me down
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Nelson concedes

Florida continues it's long tradition of narrowly letting me down

Fox news was the only one I know of that had that race called.
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Oh yeah, there's no way there isn't a recount if it stays this close until the end. Just hundreds of votes separate the two right now.
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Florida: consistently 1% too shitty.
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Florida is the only gut-punch, really.

Especially since I live here now. I move out of the state that did a bunch of awesome stuff (Michigan) and move to this hellhole.
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Jakyl25 posted...

To re-ask a Question from last Topic

What does the lame duck GOP Congress do now?

Honestly?

Basically nothing. That's kind of the point.

The idea is that the house can basically flood the senate so they can't actually do much of anything.

I expect Turtle to completely flip his shit at some point.
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So is anyone going to start counting votes in Nevada or is that entire state just drunk?
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and as I start posting about Evers vs Walker, Walker starts taking over >_>
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snake_5036 posted...

and as I start posting about Evers vs Walker, Walker starts taking over >_>

A lot of the blue areas are 100% reported. But there is two counties south of Madison that are 0% and I dunno if they are usually blue or not.
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