Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1281

(+) Yeah! (+)

UItimaterializer posted...

Thats not true at all.

It's absolutely true. People are always quick to blame SFF whenever there's an over- or underperformance. Every match has overlap. Mario overlaps with everyone because everyone knows Mario. It's just a matter of whether or not it's disproportionate overlap.

The reason people were calling for SFF in Mario/Mega Man was because people thought Mega Man should've done better. That's really all there is to it. Maybe they're right because Mega Man seemed better in 2010 than he had in a few years, when he was down near the bottom of the Noble Nine with Sonic and Crono. If Mario's 58% was legit, it'd mean that Mario was either probably the clear #2 in 2010 or Mega Man was still down there with Sonic and Crono. Who knows. 2010 had so much SFF (along with Charizard's bandwagon) that it's hard to tell where everyone is at the top aside from Link, Cloud, Snake, and Samus.

Now I'm not saying Mario didn't overperform. There's probably a good chance he did, but just saying there must have been SFF simply because overlap exists is incorrect.
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It's not like Mario broke 60% on Mega Man. If you are arguing that Mario should have only gotten 55% and not 58% against Mega Man then the disproportionate-ness part of SFF loses meaning.

I guess this turns a bit into a grey area; how much does a result need to be skewed for it to be called SFF?
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If Mario did SFF Mega Man, it was barely anything. A 2-3% overperformance could fall into a "margin of error" type of random variance, honestly. Just because two characters share a fanbase doesn't mean there will be SFF. We've seen exceptions to this many times. You're just assuming there must have been an overperformance because it's happened before (and with a Series Contest result? Seriously?) when there have been multiple times where it hasn't happened.
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Late matches are where numbers tend to be wonkier than ever because of bandwagons and things like that. Mario gave up 46.5% to Charizard the very next round, and then Link SFF'd Mario harder than he's ever SFF'd him a round later.
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Does it matter, Mario's not even an elite character compared to someone like Noble Niner Vivi.
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yikes get ready for Nintendo domination

Don't they always do better with the registered voters?
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Squall looks to be on route for another rematch with Solid Snake.
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Im kinda into this bracket setup. Some good matches here.
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Master Hand killing one of my favorite FF characters again
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Is this going to be Knuckles' first loss to a FF character in the first round?
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Cecil finally gonna win a match!?
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wow, just saw Hat Kid made it in

she's going to get 5% on Squall but I'm just happy she made the bracket.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

Squall looks to be on route for another rematch with Solid Snake.

more like en route to lose to zelda get ready for NintendoFAQs: Breath of the Wild Edition
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Yuri Lowell didn't make the bracket -_-

but overall I like this bracket. also 2 votes for registered users is a great idea to counter the rallies.
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Zero vs Pikachu is on November 16th. Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu releases on the same day. RIP Zero.
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every ultimate newcomer has made it in lmao
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

Zero vs Pikachu is on November 16th. Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu releases on the same day.

Isn't that the game everyone hates (or will hate, I guess)?
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xp1337 posted...

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Squall looks to be on route for another rematch with Solid Snake.

more like en route to lose to zelda get ready for NintendoFAQs: Breath of the Wild Edition

He should be too far ahead, but double votes for Nintendo fans fives me pause.
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The people who come to the site because of the game won't be people who hate it so it still benefits Pikachu in a close match.
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Some of these matches...
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Just at first glance there look to be a lot of potentially close matches in Round 1. Nice.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

Zero vs Pikachu is on November 16th. Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu releases on the same day. RIP Zero.

Pikachu likely would've won anyway
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Wow, this bracket is tough.
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As someone who has played in competitive games/esports and knows of the double elimination thing I think it's interesting that they are starting it in this contest in the top 16 in the legends. I think it's a cool idea for basically only the most popular characters

What are you guys thoughts on this addition?
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i've barely looked at this thing but i know already that i don't fucking care
i knew crash would actually have an easier time winning if he got a bad seed

i am sinking with the S.S. Bandicoot
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How likely is D.Va to get a big rally going? I have no idea if she loses in round 1 or makes it to Squall.
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I gave a hard look at Aloy/D.Va because I don't know if that would require that strong of a rally to materialize to get past that match. And Fox/Jill isn't that tough a R2 either. That's definitely a pretty soft spot in the bracket and where you'd like to be if you're rally dependent.

Took Aloy still but that could go south real quick.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

Squall looks to be on route for another rematch with Solid Snake.

well it's double elimination so who knows

I'm actually pretty excited about this but I don't really have time to analyze it yet
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Shonen_Bat posted...

How likely is D.Va to get a big rally going? I have no idea if she loses in round 1 or makes it to Squall.

All a out the overwatch bandwagon

She will win round 1 I bet
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actually Squall can get Sonic in the losers bracket so he can still beat a Noble Niner this contest

I'll take it
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Prominent-ish snubs from characters who made it into 2013:
-Squirtle (called it! Charizard got in though.)
-Pokemon Trainer Blue (Not sure anyone thought he was coming back?)
-Zack Fair
-Rikku
-Meta-Knight
-Altair (we knew this franchise was way downhill on gamefaqs and nobody really cares about Altair so...)
-Kratos Aurion
-Jak (Looks like Draven killed his contest career)
-Ratchet
-Protoman
-Duke Nukem
-Marth
-Laharl
-Midna
-Nightmare (after his 2013 performance it's like who cares but I guess he did have Soul Calibur VI coming up)
-Yuri Lowell
-Yu Narukami
-Raiden
-CATS (if you count the 2010 vote-ins, this is the first time he's missed a character battle completely; sad day)
-The entire GTA franchise

Duke Nukem, Marth, Niko, Zack, Altair...Lots of Kefka opponents have gone missing!

Only notable returner I can see that missed 2013 is Chris Redfield.
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I think the potential for rematches during the same contest season could produce some really interesting results.
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This time around I'm not going to think much about it. Consider my bracket LOCKED!
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No Trevor Phillips boooo.

I'm actually quite interested to see how Geralt and 2B will do. Most of the "new" characters (although Geralt isn't that new) don't do well here, but I feel like they might have some chance at being worth anything.
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I have Geralt winning his division before going out to Sonic + Squall/Zelda. I'm pretty high on his strength though. Could definitely lose to Auron.

2B's path is pretty set to me. Gets blown up by Bowser. I guess if you're really down on her you could have her lose to Ness but there's really not much room for her to maneuver.
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AxemRedRanger posted...

Prominent-ish snubs from characters who made it into 2013:
-Squirtle (called it! Charizard got in though.)
-Pokemon Trainer Blue (Not sure anyone thought he was coming back?)
-Zack Fair
-Rikku
-Meta-Knight
-Altair (we knew this franchise was way downhill on gamefaqs and nobody really cares about Altair so...)
-Kratos Aurion
-Jak (Looks like Draven killed his contest career)
-Ratchet
-Protoman
-Big Daddy
-Duke Nukem
-Marth
-Laharl
-Midna
-Nightmare (after his 2013 performance it's like who cares but I guess he did have Soul Calibur VI coming up)
-Yuri Lowell
-Yu Narukami
-Raiden
-CATS (if you count the 2010 vote-ins, this is the first time he's missed a character battle completely; sad day)
-The entire GTA franchise
-Morrigan

Duke Nukem, Marth, Niko, Zack, Altair...Lots of Kefka opponents have gone missing!

Only notable returner I can see that missed 2013 is Chris Redfield.

There's no bigger snub than my man Gilgamesh!
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AxemRedRanger posted...

-Yu Narukami

Yu is in

He's just against Vivi Round 1 and screwed
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oh, right

...I just noticed Guybrush is finally gone too.
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So, if you are scared of Bowsette possibly causing a Bowser boost, he's certainly got a path here. He's got to be the favorite to win his division, and then draws Crono. If he loses, he draws Sora/Kefka/Alucard/BigBoss. He's definitely got time to build momentum, or let the craze die.
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I feel like somehow Kefka/L-Block might be the most important first round match.
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Well I think the actual issue is if Bowsette is even allowed as a match pic since it isn't even official art.
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

So, if you are scared of Bowsette possibly causing a Bowser boost, he's certainly got a path here. He's got to be the favorite to win his division, and then draws Crono. If he loses, he draws Sora/Kefka/Alucard/BigBoss. He's definitely got time to build momentum, or let the craze die.

Case in point I took Bowser over Crono and Cloud

If this ends up being my wacky pick this time so be it

This bracket is hard man. Among other things I can see Tifa, Mewtwo, X and Luigi all winning Division 7.
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NowItsAngeTime posted...

Well I think the actual issue is if Bowsette is even allowed as a match pic since it isn't even official art.

It's not allowed. There's no real issue there.
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Aqua/Quiet

Anybody think this could be interesting? Or am I giving a MGSV character too much credit.
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NowItsAngeTime posted...

Well I think the actual issue is if Bowsette is even allowed as a match pic since it isn't even official art.

He's certainly not getting Bowsette in his match pics, but it can't hurt being all over social media at the moment anyway.

That being said, official art of the Super Crown being snuck into a freeform match pic is a very real possibility of harnessing the meme.
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Bowsette might help Peach more than Bowser, crazy as that sounds.
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SwiftyDC posted...

Aqua/Quiet

Anybody think this could be interesting? Or am I giving a MGSV character too much credit.

Yeah, I kinda like Quiet, but who really knows.
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