Board 8 > Sir Chris' Music Mafia Topic 15: Why Can't We Be Friends?

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HanOfTheNekos
08/25/18 12:35:30 AM
#301:


FD, I don't want you to get annoyed because I keep saying things to you, but it would really help to have your perspective here.
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benjamin3740
08/25/18 12:37:56 AM
#302:


benjamin3740 posted...

Han, do you think that every living scum would have chosen to get on IGCD over Red? (Not counting Tony who was on a splinter vote)


Tange literally voted for Red, tying him with IGCD. The next person was you, who unvoted Red (iirc) and hopped on IGCD. So you took a tie and turned it into a +2 voting Town over Scum. The timing was real convenient, and being so close to the end of the day, it looks more like a 'gotta make a goofy vote to save my scummate' rather than a real move with reasoning. Hell, if you wanted the lynch to be fun, you should've kept the tie there. Tiebreakers are way more fun, and usually pretty helpful.

It was definitely a bad look after he flipped Town. But I had no way of knowing that at the time so whatever. Darn Puns was the person to convince me to come over to his side. And I had been posting my reasonings multiple times and honestly trying to figure out who I should vote. If you look at the whole picture then it is not a goofy vote.

As for ties, I have been scolded in the past that ties only benefit scum and that it's not wise to do them, so I have never voted to make a tie since.
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benjamin3740
08/25/18 12:39:34 AM
#303:


HanOfTheNekos posted...
benjamin3740 posted...
Luckily it proves me town.


No, it doesn't.

Well I don't expect you to meta me, but maybe Tange can attest to the fact that I'm a busser at heart
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HanOfTheNekos
08/25/18 12:41:02 AM
#304:


Damn Ben, if you're so aware that you usually bus as Scum, then of COURSE you would intentionally not bus this time.

Guess that proves you Scum!

Night.
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benjamin3740
08/25/18 12:43:32 AM
#305:


FD wanted to look at Crescent's posts from yesterday. I looked at a lot of her posts already so maybe i should start posting them here
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benjamin3740
08/25/18 12:49:14 AM
#306:


HanOfTheNekos posted...
Damn Ben, if you're so aware that you usually bus as Scum, then of COURSE you would intentionally not bus this time.

Guess that proves you Scum!

Night.

But if the pattern wasn't true then the pattern wouldn't exist at all!

Anyway, you've used the same kind of defenses for a lot of things today, but apparently that's just me making mountains
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benjamin3740
08/25/18 12:53:28 AM
#307:


crescent moon posted...
Let me be frank about last night. I was not in a good spot. The man I went to see looked 20 years older than I ever remember him looking, and I left with the knowledge that, while we were not *that* close, it could be the last time I ever saw him. I had forgotten how it feels to be reminded of mortality, and I was originally planning to tell the game I wasn't in any shape to post, and leave. Ultimately I decided the game was at too crucial a point to just up and leave for the night.

Anyway, a lot of this is something I wanted to go over yesterday (Which is why I was quiet half the day), but I knew it was too soon for it so I didn't get into it and let it become a distraction. Tony being scum solves most if not all of the conspiracy theories out there. Town is a bit powerful, but no longer as overpowered as it once looked. The monster we were constantly going into theory about doesn't exist. This what the game looks like as of now:

Mafia:
Vanilla
Roleblocker
Unscannable (I'm taking this as godfather ninja)
Detective
Watcher
Extra Kill Janitor/Jack with Janitor most likely

Barring something like scum deciding to save their extra kill all the way until endgame (something I have not seen before), I believe the theory that scum lost a kill on Corrik night 1 is still the most plausible.

Town's Power as presently constituted consists of:

Cop and Tracker for scanners
Jailkeeper, Bodyguard, Elite Bodyguard for protection
Vigilante, Super Target Bomb, and Lawyer
And Panthera's Jack role.

Town does feel a little strong, but someone, I believe Puns, pointed out something about this spread. Town has probably the most misfire potential of any town I've even been on. Bodyguard and Elite Bodyguard can both die protecting the same target, and Elite Bodyguard/Vigilante could actually kill each other. Vigilante misfires early and often. Bombs are easy to misfire, Lawyer can self-kill with a wrong target, and Mason Recruit can self-kill with a wrong target. Town can destroy itself with this setup as we're looking at it.

With the monster scum role theory effectively dead, I believe the likelihood of a second godfather has dropped considerably with it. I didn't want to say this yesterday on the offchance Tony was town. This is also why I particularly poked Death about it yesterday, because if Tony were town I'd absolutely be certain a godfather would be around.

And yes, this assumes Zach is town, but a review of the night actions I think gives him a pretty good town point, and I believe may go a good way in pointing us at the last scum. We have already established through Puns that scum was probably afraid of tracker, which is why Dumey no actioned night 1. My theoretical scum actions:

Night 1:
Tony/EDumey do nothing. Red tries to kill Corrik, Leo scans whoever, and the scum extra kill janitors Plum. Only the extra kill particularly fears a track here, but he has done his job.

Night 2/Night 3:
Tony/EDumey do nothing, again. Red sends the kill. Dumey may have blocked Sultan night three instead of Eaed, but that's not much. There isn't anything here at all to track.

And so on. But here's where the player logic begins. I believe scum believed Puns' tracker claim, especially given no one even hinted at a real counter and Puns didn't so much as flinch from anything Scare did. It was during this time period that Zach eventually claimed vig that shot at Corrik. Does the scum who actually killed Plum really take this risk under basically no pressure? It's not a stretch to think scum may have been wondering if he tracked the actual killer. As far as I know, Janitor has to be the one to send the kill to cause the Janitor effect, meaning Red could not have been the one to kill Plum. It's definitely a town point for Zach

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benjamin3740
08/25/18 12:54:00 AM
#308:


crescent moon posted...
Tony flipping scum also disperses the notion that Red's role is weaker than it looked. Red was, in almost all likelihood, a godfather ninja. I thought entering night 3, if scum really wanted Sheep dead, they'd go after him then. Entering night 3, though, the only nightmare scenario scan Sheep could possibly make was a scan on Dumey, and they probably felt he was more likely to burn a scan on someone like Red than to go after someone like Dumey. Even if he scans not-Dumey scum at that point, it's not a critical loss. Scum played the risk/reward on Sheep instead of on Eaed here and got burned.

But this is where the next piece of the puzzle comes in, something very specific Sheep said day 4:

Sheep007
08/12/18 9:48:21 AM
94
turbopuns2 posted...

Sheep, why dumey?

He made a terrible vote last night (one of the few people with a solid chance of being scum to vote God as well) and he was probably the player I was most neutral on at the time of picking my scan. I thought Ben was scum anyway, and same with Red, so I was aiming to look for what was presumably the fourth scum. I also think it told me more about Red than Han, who was the other I was considering.

Sheep clearly stated he already thought Ben was scum, and intended to scan Han next (and then scanned Ben anyway?). If Han is scum, then with Dumey going down, scum would have had to have known a Han scum scan was effectively game over. This is why they took the risk to kill Sheep that night, because they felt cornered into doing it. I believe now the game would already be over had Sheep stuck to scanning Han night 4. Red getting himself killed made it so we didn't have to burn a lynch/another day just on him and it also allowed us to use MZero (though he had not full claimed by then). It suggested a serious fear of Sheep night 4, and Tony constantly acting like scum "didn't try to hurt Sheep night 4" also suggests this.

We're not looking for a monster role. We're probably not looking for a godfather, either. We're just looking for the last scum. That's all. This is the vacuum in which all the actions so far in the game make sense. Occam's Razor said Tony was scum yesterday (I almost first post voted him yesterday. At one point it was there). Occam's Razor now says Han is scum today.

##Vote: Han

If the game as we know it makes sense up to this point, this is our last scum. Tony's last ditch effort to distance himself from Han was a nice touch, though~

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benjamin3740
08/25/18 12:59:40 AM
#309:


Crescent's next posts are arguing with Han who claims responsibility for getting Tony lynched. Crescent wants some of that sweet sweet Tony credit.

Next Crescent opinion is

crescent moon posted...
double_tangicide posted...
Order of unconfirmed Id like lynched:

Death
Han
Zach
Crescent


Flip Han and Death for me. I'm not super certain on Han, but I really don't think this game lasts past Han+Death lynches anyway.

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benjamin3740
08/25/18 1:07:18 AM
#310:


Crescent asks for FD to talk more since he's confirmed.

Crescent agrees with me that Death may be scum: "Death hasn't had any serious contribution to the last two days, the most critical days of the game. It's primarily why my certainty on Han is not super high."

Crescent argues with Han a bit more on why she reacted the ways she did to Tony

I'm skipping over her musings about events in the game unrelated to the present, like her talking about Scare acting scummy.

crescent moon posted...
Things make just a bit less sense if Death is scum. Just a bit. It's a little less Occam's Razory.

Really though, we're not hearing from Death tonight anyway. We won't get much further without him and FD chiming in

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benjamin3740
08/25/18 1:16:51 AM
#311:


Crescent appears to not really suspect Zach much. She defends him from Han and the insistence that he';s lying about Vig. After more Zach arguing, she goes with

crescent moon posted...
I certainly feel like Death is more likely than Zach, still.


I mean, she just really really didnt like Han basically the whole day

crescent moon posted...
And scumpoint to Han for playing along to cheaply fan a fire he should know was started without merit. He's already clearly made references to me tunneling on Tony yesterday.

Han's hasn't been shy in saying "that's a good point" to just about everything today, either.

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benjamin3740
08/25/18 1:23:11 AM
#312:


Crescent says that if Zach is scum then he's a real life scum bag.

When I bring up the infamous Zach post, she says she saw it and chose to ignore it. Still I think it was influencing her a bit throughout the day.

This is unrelated to Crescent, but Han didnt react to my post. He just ignored it and said this to Zach

HanOfTheNekos posted...
Zach, I honestly would be disappointed if you were to let a Scummate's feelings get in the way of a good play.

I dont know what Scum said to Zam on the Scumboard. I'm sure they tore into him. But it was clear that Scum weren't happy with Zam claiming Tony's role. That would explain why you were so set on lynching him despite his claims.

You've done little this game to inspire confidence in you. The only thing you have done is mouth off about being confirmed.

So please. Convince me otherwise. Why else aren't you Scum? Who is Scum? Give something.


Then later when Crescent and me were talking about it, he told me to come up with any reason to ignore it for some reason. Never liked that

HanOfTheNekos posted...
benjamin3740 posted...
Crescent-Moon posted...
benjamin3740 posted...
I'm almost going to stop defending Zach due to all the points against him that I sort of agree with. So I guess I will just lay out everything I saw and the reason I have been calling him town.

Basically, after Tony flipped, he posted in the Mafia General topic "I'm mad. That's all I have to say"

This is an honest reaction to seeing Tony flip scum. I believe he really was mad about that, enough that he felt he just had to post SOMETHING even though it was nighttime.

This I'm almost positive is modkill worthy if it were Zach's intent to affect the game in this manner.

Well I doubt he intended to affect anything, he just haphazardly did it. And unfortunately I can't help but meta that


Come up with an explanation for why it makes sense for him to feel that way as Scum, come up with a reason for him to say that unrelated to the game, then ignore it.

I just got through a small panic attack. Going climbing, then need to finish 1 more lesson plan, then I'll spend the rest of the evening seeing if it makes sense for someone else to be Scum.

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benjamin3740
08/25/18 1:28:38 AM
#313:


Unfortunately Crescent gets surprised by day end and does not have much time to say anything and just tries to get information out of people instead. Asking why we were voting for who and to summarize why

Han asks her for her thoughts

My thoughts I'd much rather FD decide than you.. Well I'd rather him decide than me too to be honest.

Zach would still have to be faking a lot to be scum.

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benjamin3740
08/25/18 1:29:08 AM
#314:


Crescent-Moon posted...
benjamin3740 posted...
I'm not even too confident in Death being scum. I'm just more confident in Zach being town. And everyone else in the game besides Death as well

I still feel it's most likely Han or Death and if it isn't the last day is going to be ugly.

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benjamin3740
08/25/18 1:33:53 AM
#315:


Han says "Ok, kill Death then"

Crescent-Moon posted...
I intend to, I'm just hesitating because it's my nature to hesitate.

And I don't really trust you either.


And that is Crescent's last post.

Conclusion is that she liked Zach and wants Han dead. So is scum specifically framing Han, because that's what Han says.
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ColZach
08/25/18 1:34:58 AM
#316:


Up for a little bit now that I'm home.

Crescent's posts tilt my little dial back in the direction of using a razor to finish this game.

I'm gonna try and reread some before bed and try to sleep on a lot of knowledge. We have a little less than 24 hours so there isn't a rush yet.

FYI, again I will be at work when this day deadlines.
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Forceful_Dragon
08/25/18 4:45:36 AM
#317:


For as inactive as yesterday was Crescent did a lot of the posting. Within those posts she mostly sought to try to reason what tools scum has or had at their disposal and what their perspective would have been on certain game events. Here are some brief paraphrased excerpts of Crescent posts:

~Crescent Remarks: Day 7 Edition~

Says town has a lot of misfire potential

Assumes zach is town

Tony flipping scun means red was godfather/ninja

We're probably not looking for godfather, just scum

That scum is Han

Tony tried to distance himself from Han at the end

Death is 2nd worst compared to Han.

Scum probably knew puns was a tracker when he faked tracker

Death has been a nonfactor.

Scum also probably assumed there was a tracker from the beginning on account of having unscanneable and a scum watcher.

I still feel it's most likely han or Death.


.

Now it clearly wasn't death, but was Crescent silenced for her activity (which was significant) or for her opinions specifically, which was that Zach could not be scum and that Han was probably scum. Beyond those two she seemed to be looking past Tange on account of the inno scan.

.

Now aside from myself I feel Zach is the least likely to be scum.

I don't know if Han is the kind of scum that would silence crescent for pushing for his lynch. That would be like Yomi layer 0 of making the move to remove a threat. But he would expect that we would see that and understand it's purpose. Unless he expects us to take it the step further and view it as exonerating him because he would not be so foolish as to do the most obvious thing. It all becomes WIFOM, but the layers are there and the logic exists from both sides.

But if it isn't Han then I'm not sure if Ben or Tange is the kind of scum that would kill someone who was pushing for someone else's lynch just so we would see that and lynch him next.

In either case it feels significant that she was killed.

.

But the name of the game today has been Han vs Ben and to me I'm not convinced that we're looking at town vs town. If Occam's razor has Han as scum, then that just ends the game. But in the event that he isn't, then Ben's play is to get Han today, kill me tonight, and the pact with Tange guarantee's that Zach goes down tomorrow? Ben also has been quick to point out Zach's mafia general post as a town mark in his favor, but that could just be Ben being salty that a modkill was not handed down for that making his job just that much harder.

Between killing Han and Ben then, I'm not sure we could lose. But that would rely on Tange breaking pact tomorrow and not just giving up the win.

These at least are my musings after reading through today's posts from everyone and crescent's posts from yesterday. I'll sleep on it and should have more time to post tomorrow (yes, really).

I'm sorry you have to put up with my inactivity, but I think a replacement at this point would take far to long to get up to speed and I know that I will have time to post. I hope at the very least I've done right by crescent today.
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Forceful_Dragon
08/25/18 4:46:56 AM
#318:


HanOfTheNekos posted...
FD, I don't want you to get annoyed because I keep saying things to you, but it would really help to have your perspective here.


I'm not sure you will care for it once you read it, but there you have it <_<
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HanOfTheNekos
08/25/18 8:54:42 AM
#319:


No, that was beautiful, thank you :) You have a level-headed approach to this and that's what we need.

The power roles still point at Zach being Scum, and remember - Crescent was wrong about when Zach claimed. However, at this point, a Scum Zach would know how dirty his win would be and I would trust him to have come forward already. (That said, I really wish I would've hammered him instead of Death, because I've trusted Death all game and lynching him yesterday was in huge violation of my gut)

And I reread through Crescent's posts and honestly, I would've rather had her lynched instead of Death. She was right, she was not in a good spot, and we all saw it, especially when Tony played her like a fiddle.

I would gladly explain why her theorycrafting from yesterday is straight-up bad (I wasn't hinted as Sheep's next scan target, Scum didn't 'take a risk' on shooting Sheep, Unscannable isn't Godfather Ninja ffs), but... I don't think it's necessary? I would just trust you all to realize that there wasn't good logic there.

Anyway, going forward with today, here's the question I want answer:

Ben, Zach, Tange

When I'm dead and you are the final three, who are you voting?
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HanOfTheNekos
08/25/18 9:12:25 AM
#320:


Gonna continue ISO of Ben here:

Day 2:
- Begins by saying 'clutch save last night'.
- Instantly says Leo is more Townish
- Acts goofy
- Explains reasoning for calling Leo Townish, but asks puns for clarification
- Says maybe Panth is Scum
- Tells puns he has to convince him that Leo is Scum, ignores the soft claim, then redirects attention, jokingly, onto Panth/Scare
- IGNORES puns on Leo and gets really involved with Panth/Scare
- Calls Panth's Jack claim fake
- Has been attacking Panth's reasoning on thinking he's weird based on being nitpicky
- Ben says:

"Panthera is jumpy. Puns didn't claim he tracked Leo to Plum. He may have implied it, but when you are Panthera and have knowledge that you moved last night and Scare is asking you if you had a busy night, why would you believe Puns over Scare? If Puns ACTUALLY IS Tracker and Leo killed Plum, then it would further implicate Panthera because it means Panthera instantly believed Puns because he knew it was true.

What do you think Puns?"

Literally, Ben is continuing to say puns is a liar about Leo... in fact, in a way which shows he knows puns is wrong... and continue to push onto Panth. I almost want to stop ISOing here, because I am Convinced Ben is Scum at this point. But I'll continue
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HanOfTheNekos
08/25/18 9:13:13 AM
#321:


FD - I also want to know who you would want lynched in a Zach/Tange/Ben final 3.
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HanOfTheNekos
08/25/18 9:29:06 AM
#322:


Continuing ISO of ben:
- Says to Leo that his point relies on him being Scum, and asks if he's wrong
- Jokes about having to kill Scare (ugh, Scare your play this game) because he counterclaimed Jack
- Comes back after an absence to make a comment on Eaed being JK
- Defends his joking post at the beginning of day to Crescent
- Got attacked by both Crescent and Tange(??) for needing to post useful things and read the game, respectively
- Gives Zach complete credit for catching Zam and claims he's 100% Town (way before he even posted in the other topic)
- Says he has no Scum reads, but provides list of players who haven't done enough for him to get a read on: "Tange, Mzero, Pj, FD, IfGodCouldDie, Edumey."
- Adds Red after seeing Crescent posted the same list as him
- "Everyone else not on that list, I have reasons to think are Town" Hey, that includes Han!
- Talks about PW mafia for a bit
- Big OOF here: "The only thing I can say about scum Red is that he discourages bussing. Like he would have yelled at Zam if he tried it. I see Zam never took his vote off Dumey, so maybe a scum Red gives Dumey town points"

That's defending Dumey through a Red flip.

- Says he likes to ignore Corrik
- Makes a post that's almost like defending Red, but is all just to be red meta and say the post is null
- Asks if Panthera made a slip
- Says he thinks that the Jack claim is still fake, but for the first time ever, says that Leo is Scum "Right now I'm living in the ideal scenario of you AND Leo being scum" which is pretty out of nowhere

End of Day 2:
So, notes about Ben...
- He actually was more active than I remembered. But lots of people, including Tange of all, pointed out that he hadn't been saying much and needed to say more. Which means he was quite active without providing too much content. Jokes around a lot... which reads a bit like acting at time

- He was wrong about everything. He focused on Panth/Scare, ignored Leo until he basically had to go along with public opinion, he defended Scum, and he ended day on a Town lynch (that FD saved)
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HanOfTheNekos
08/25/18 9:45:33 AM
#323:


Day 3 time:

- Asks Panth who he millerized (Panth targeted Tony - so eaed actually saved Panth's life there!)
- Completely flips on Panth and says he is only Scum if Mafia blocked and killed Tony N1
- Continues to ask Panth to role meta
- "Red needs to be killed for his easy defense of Leo" this is the first thing Ben has said against a Scum member all game, to which Red quickly what-the-hell?'s
- Says it's because Red said he didn't want to lynch Leo because he's fun to have around in game regardless of alignment
- Red points out that Red didn't say that, but somebody else did. Meaning Ben's long-awaited attack on Scum was based off of incorrect info, then he backs off
- Ben asks who people think made a save at night? Says 'definitely not Corrik!' but it might have actually been Corrik
- Says that he wants to leave Sultan alone because he can't see the Scum angle in Sultan acting how he did (in terms of asking if two BG's could exist or something)
- Provides an angle for why Sultan would act the way he did as Scum
- Provides option for how Panth is Scum
- "If you knew Puns wasnt tracker then why would for certain believe Scare and fall for his trap of claiming you visited Plum? Wouldn't you claim something you can actually recover from and hope Scare isnt tracker instead of just sealing your doom?

Like I said, I threw the comment out to get reactions. As scum I'm not going to just out myself as scum like that by saying such things for no reason."

That was directed at Panth - weird part is fixating on Panth knowing that Puns wasn't Tracker (well, was lying about tracking Leo) and said he wouldn't just out himself as Scum by saying "nice save" for no reason. Which, like the "Mafia God" statement, I think is possibly just him trying to be cute a la puns naming his whole scumteam in first post of game

- Continues to say he really distrusts Jack claims, but the Masonizer is juicy, so Panth should be left alive for another night, AS LONG AS HE'S NOT RB'D BY TOWN AGAIN (knowing that Panth targeted Tony N2, of course they want to let Panth kill himself by trying to do the same again)
- Continues to say Panth sounds like he's coming from a fake perspective
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HanOfTheNekos
08/25/18 10:03:57 AM
#324:


Onto topic 6 - sorry about the big wall, but I feel this is all mostly important info:

- After an absence, asks Sultan why he thinks Scare is more likely Scum than Town
- Says he thinks Sultan is Scum, still
- Says this doesn't strike him as Town IGCD at all
- "You know you have my support in killing Panthera" yikes, especially after saying he should be left alive for at least one more night
- Continues to throw support behind Sultan, which is really easy to do if you know Sultan is Town
- Pushes Panth a lot about how Panth should not have given up or something, and how weird it is that Panth fought so hard then stopped fighting

Crescent post in middle of Day 3:
Depends what you consider inactive. I don't have particularly strong scum reads on any of the active ones.

Tony? Town. Scare? Probably town. Puns? Probably town. Zach? Probably town. Sultan? Leaning town (There's no way he claims BG there unless he's scum and someone on his team told him to) Han? Leaning town. You? Town unless scum is insane. FD is town because Lawyer.

Jumping between the inactives is the single most important thing in this game right now.

We have 5 scum left, and at least 3, but probably 4 of them are in:

3. IfGodCouldDie
7. Mzero11
8. pjbasis
12. Leafeon13N (red13N/Red)
14. DoubleTangicide
18. Edumey
20. Benjamin3740
21. htaeD (Death)

The inactives on this list have to be made to talk or it's a crapshoot. I don't particularly like IGCD, Red, or Tange right now. What they have in common is they make up 5% of the game's activity combined. Sorting out a group like Dumey/Ben/MZero also requires getting them to talk more and taking the opportunity to pressure them. This is a game where I believe most of the scum team is hiding amongst the inactive pile.


- Asks "does anyone have ANYTHING positive to say about Red?"

Red responds: "I do. For one, like hell if i let a scumteam bus me like this. I'd have their heads."

Ben responds: "That's actually what I was going to say if we did kill you and you flipped scum - to look at the people who haven't mentioned you or stopped mentioning you. Because that's all I really know about your scum game. Although, I still bussed you anyway when I was on your team, AND I kept believing every power claim, so it's not a fool proof rule... plus you're self aware. And that's the reason I'm saying all of this now instead of later."

Personally, that reads like Red directly calling Ben out for bussing him. FD, you're the Red pro here, what do you think?

Also, Ben gives further credit to him being Scum by saying he bussed Red when he was on his team.

- Continues to push Panth
Ben was quoted by Scare saying:
Uhhh. Guess I'll wait to hear what Zam says. The only thing running through my head since the second he claimed watcher was that he's town regardless if he's actually Watcher or not. The likelihood of which being pretty low since he has fake claimed power without fail every town game in like the last 5 or so >_>

To which Scare says "Ben caught with hand in the cookie jar and trying to save face and still defend"

- Puns theorizes that Zam was yelled at by his own Scumboard - cites Red as being the likely culprit
- Ben defends his defense of Zam, explains when he decided to consider him possibly Scum faking it
- Says Sheep is Town for no real reason
- Ben joins crusade on Red
- Says he would claim vanilla as Scum, when Sheep asks him to claim
- "The thing I'm most concerned about now is figuring out who is a better lynch than Panth before tonight." says this even having a vote on Red
- Agrees with puns that Scare might be Scum, despite him not wanting to vote him right now
---
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HanOfTheNekos
08/25/18 10:24:27 AM
#325:


Man, I keep accidentally typing puns instead of Ben

Ben said:
Red have you voted? IIRC, you are in support of keeping Panthera alive today, so who do we go to alternatively?

- Literally asking Red to provide an out
- After Red says "IGCD or MZero", Ben asks "what about Tangey boy?"
- Agrees with me that Red is probably Scum, despite asking Red for alternatives
- Ben threatened:
If Panth comes in tomorrow saying he roleblocked someone I kill him instantly, jut warning you Panth

- Literally threatening Panth into Mason Recruiting, which he is likely to do anyway, and the best option for him is Tony, so kinda pushing Panth into killing himself
- Says Panth can Mason him. Promises he won't kill him, at least, not during the night (which is dumb, you wouldn't kill your Mason partner during the day. Also, tryingish to direct a Mason scan at himself)
Ben defended Red by saying
LETS JUST GO BACK TO KILLING PANTH. No one gets MVP medals by playing it safe!

- After we talked SO MUCH about how Red was probably just Scum, Ben is still trying to find an alternative lynch
- Talks a little about Sheep deciding to claim
- Ben gets scanned inno. Is excited.
- Continues to shade Panth, defend Sultan
- Asks for Sultan to clarify on his role
- Makes an aside about his Town MVP medals slipping away
- Interesting of note is that Ben said he would just claim vanilla as Scum, but never actually claimed during this day
- Asks Sultan for more clarification and everything
- Asks for updated votals
- Says that if Red were Town, someone would be defending him. But this reminded him of a game where Red survived to day 4 or 5 in the same situation
- Ben continues to state how Red is acting just like he did as Scum in a previous game, giving tons and tons of evidence that Red is Scum
- Says he is Blade
- Ben said
I mean I'm good killing both of them. The only thing IGCD has going for him is that he voted to kill Leo. But it was over Panth, so if they;re both scum then it doesnt mean anything. And then he seems a little more mellow than I am used to with his town self, but he tried to tell me he's been playing differently lately.

Not fond of letting Red go though either


This is the first time Ben made any mention of wanting to lynch IGCD, and the reasoning is pretty bad.

- States that, if Red is Scum, IGCD is totally Scum, setting up IGCD for the mislynch even if Red gets killed in this day
- Ben said
I'm probably the only one on Red who is here for deadline. So everyone who wants God dead instead - CONVINCE ME


1. EDumey hops on IGCD's lynch, which ties it (I was wrong, i thought it was Tange, but)
2. Tange hops on Red, which pushes Red into the lead (go Tange go)
3. Sheep unvotes Red, tying the lynch
4. Ben saves Red
Really the sole reason I havent moved to God is because I know Red is gonna laugh at us and tell us we bought him. Well just know that I didn't!

STILL I PREFER FUN LYNCHES

##Unvote

##Vote: God


Ben said
ANd right now I'm incredibly sure of myself that both are scum, so I really could have voted for either. God's responses were not giving me any town reads. And switching votes last second is the best feeling ever


- Day 4 starts with Ben barely saying a thing about the result of the lynch, except when Tange presses, basically says 'oh well', followed by "dammit Red" and "With Panth being Town, Sultan is probably Scum".

Conclusion to follow this, then I'm stopping here for now.
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HanOfTheNekos
08/25/18 10:29:24 AM
#326:


Conclusions:

- Ben's first Scumpush of the entire game was on Red. After all, Ben told us he's SUCH a busser, so it makes sense for Ben to be bussing Red here
- HOWEVER, Ben spent the entire day looking for alternatives, asking other people to defend Red, and basically looking for tons of outs
- Finally, when an out was presented, and this is the FIRST time Ben said anything, he said "o ya IGCD probably also Scum", then asked people to convince him to switch, to make sure it wasn't Scummy
- Once again, Ben was THE vote that caused a gap there. He saved Red. He killed IGCD.
- Spent an inordinate amount of time pushing for Panth the whole day, and did basically nothing else besides bus Red while looking for every out. Took the out that was offered in the end

I think I have this game figured out. I want to read Day 4 on, but Day 4 is just EDumey being scanned Scum. Anyway, I reiterate for all you good friends:

FD, Zach, Ben, Tange

If the final 3 is Zach, Ben, and Tange - who do you want to be lynched?
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DoubleTangicide
08/25/18 10:56:04 AM
#327:


I would want Zach
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benjamin3740
08/25/18 12:06:10 PM
#328:


HanOfTheNekos posted...
No, that was beautiful, thank you :) You have a level-headed approach to this and that's what we need.

The power roles still point at Zach being Scum, and remember - Crescent was wrong about when Zach claimed. However, at this point, a Scum Zach would know how dirty his win would be and I would trust him to have come forward already. (That said, I really wish I would've hammered him instead of Death, because I've trusted Death all game and lynching him yesterday was in huge violation of my gut)

And I reread through Crescent's posts and honestly, I would've rather had her lynched instead of Death. She was right, she was not in a good spot, and we all saw it, especially when Tony played her like a fiddle.

I would gladly explain why her theorycrafting from yesterday is straight-up bad (I wasn't hinted as Sheep's next scan target, Scum didn't 'take a risk' on shooting Sheep, Unscannable isn't Godfather Ninja ffs), but... I don't think it's necessary? I would just trust you all to realize that there wasn't good logic there.

Anyway, going forward with today, here's the question I want answer:

Ben, Zach, Tange

When I'm dead and you are the final three, who are you voting?

When you're dead? I am the furthest from decided on that matter. I'm really thinking the game is over when you're dead
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benjamin3740
08/25/18 12:10:28 PM
#329:


HanOfTheNekos posted...
Gonna continue ISO of Ben here:

Day 2:
- Begins by saying 'clutch save last night'.
- Instantly says Leo is more Townish
- Acts goofy
- Explains reasoning for calling Leo Townish, but asks puns for clarification
- Says maybe Panth is Scum
- Tells puns he has to convince him that Leo is Scum, ignores the soft claim, then redirects attention, jokingly, onto Panth/Scare
- IGNORES puns on Leo and gets really involved with Panth/Scare
- Calls Panth's Jack claim fake
- Has been attacking Panth's reasoning on thinking he's weird based on being nitpicky
- Ben says:

"Panthera is jumpy. Puns didn't claim he tracked Leo to Plum. He may have implied it, but when you are Panthera and have knowledge that you moved last night and Scare is asking you if you had a busy night, why would you believe Puns over Scare? If Puns ACTUALLY IS Tracker and Leo killed Plum, then it would further implicate Panthera because it means Panthera instantly believed Puns because he knew it was true.

What do you think Puns?"

Literally, Ben is continuing to say puns is a liar about Leo... in fact, in a way which shows he knows puns is wrong... and continue to push onto Panth. I almost want to stop ISOing here, because I am Convinced Ben is Scum at this point. But I'll continue

Hm? I wasn't calling Puns a liar, I was hoping that Puns was legit and that we just caught two scum. I asked Puns because I could not yet tell if he was bluffing or not.
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benjamin3740
08/25/18 12:29:00 PM
#330:


There's too much to respond to there. And I admit there are a lot of reads I had that look horrible after flips. This is probably worse than I've looked in any game ever.

... But it's still Han
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjuzxiuIbjs" data-time="

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benjamin3740
08/25/18 12:33:51 PM
#331:


What I do hope is that if the final 3 is Zach/Tange/Han, they would go for Han. And that's all i ask. Whether I am lynched today or killed at night, DO NOT let Han survive in final 3.
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HanOfTheNekos
08/25/18 2:13:48 PM
#332:


Ben, quit stalling and answer my question
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HanOfTheNekos
08/25/18 2:31:05 PM
#333:


@Forceful_Dragon
@ColZach

Sorry to ping you guys, but we desperately need you to answer the following question:

When the final three is Zach, Ben, and Tange, who would you want lynched?
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benjamin3740
08/25/18 2:32:33 PM
#334:


Until you are dead, I'm just going to stick with my deal with Tange.

If the freaking impossible happens and the final scum is down to just Tange or Zach, then I would seriously have to talk and scrutinize both that day and lynch based on my final read of who looks worse. If I had to pick NOW, I rank Zach as more likely town than Tange.
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HanOfTheNekos
08/25/18 2:35:55 PM
#335:


Ben, if you were actually Town, you would be considering the next day scenario. It's terrible play to say 'im gonna just lynch the guy without an inno scan because godfathers can't exist' and not think about what you'll do if you're wrong.

I'm not Scum. And if I'm lynched today, I NEED to know how the next day is slated to go. If my death is necessary to put us in a position to consider that, maybe, there might be an innocent-scanning Janitor or that Zach might just be Scum and an asshole, then so be it. I'll die.

But I can't let myself be lynched without making sure that we're set to win in the day after.
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HanOfTheNekos
08/25/18 2:44:44 PM
#336:


Tange, I have a question - you were suspicious of Ben back in the game, even when he had the inno scan on him. Why are you so reticent to believe he could be Scum now?
---
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benjamin3740
08/25/18 2:45:59 PM
#337:


I have been considering a potential next day since the beginning, it's why I made that deal with Tange. I would kill you over him any day. When I made the deal I thought you were going to try and go for a Zach lynch, since that's what you pushed yesterday and since Tange opened by voting him. So I said that to Tange to make sure he would kill you on the last day, to force scum into nightkilling one of us if we're both town, and to get your focus onto me/Tange instead of Zach, since I was setting up scum you to be doomed. So I have been thinking about the last day.

As for why I want to kill you, it's not just because you are unscanned. Zach is unscanned, but I'm way more confident he;s town. For a number of reasons that are not just "the post". I've been vocal about that the whole game. Maybe a godfather janitor exists. Obviously I'm going to consider it. But Occam's Razor favors that it is just you, and I wont consider Godfather Janitor until I have a reason to believe there is one.
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ColZach
08/25/18 2:50:00 PM
#338:


Final 3 with me, ben, and Tange, I would have to go for Tange.

ISO on Ben is damning in some places, mainly in the interactions with red. Still, Im getting a dirty town read from it all.

However I really dont want to lynch Han given how much Ben/Tange have referenced their little deal, so I cant be on board right now.

Tange also still not having a town read on me is quite frankly just starting to seem scummy. Also makes me me think that there is setup being planned for a final 3 mislynch on me.
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benjamin3740
08/25/18 2:50:25 PM
#339:


HanOfTheNekos posted...

I'm not Scum. And if I'm lynched today, I NEED to know how the next day is slated to go. If my death is necessary to put us in a position to consider that, maybe, there might be an innocent-scanning Janitor or that Zach might just be Scum and an asshole, then so be it. I'll die.

But I can't let myself be lynched without making sure that we're set to win in the day after.

So what's your point here? Who would YOU kill? You said you'd die if it makes us consider that Tange or Zach could be scum. But I thought your whole point of this exercise was to make sure we kill the right guy. Not tell us that Me, Zach, and Tange can all be potential scum. Sounds more like you're trying to sow doubt by this exercise than give definitive answers
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DoubleTangicide
08/25/18 3:03:18 PM
#340:


ColZach posted...
Final 3 with me, ben, and Tange, I would have to go for Tange.

ISO on Ben is damning in some places, mainly in the interactions with red. Still, Im getting a dirty town read from it all.

However I really dont want to lynch Han given how much Ben/Tange have referenced their little deal, so I cant be on board right now.

Tange also still not having a town read on me is quite frankly just starting to seem scummy. Also makes me me think that there is setup being planned for a final 3 mislynch on me.


Theres literally one scum left. How would scum be conspiring in the Game to lynch you?
---
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benjamin3740
08/25/18 3:05:18 PM
#341:


ColZach posted...

However I really dont want to lynch Han given how much Ben/Tange have referenced their little deal, so I cant be on board right now.

Well if Han is scum then we don't even get to that point! Anyway, the deal was meant to force Han's hand if he's scum. It doesnt mean I would kill you over Tange necessarily.
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HanOfTheNekos
08/25/18 3:06:32 PM
#342:


Currently ISOing Day 4. But I'll respond to y'all first.

benjamin3740 posted...
I have been considering a potential next day since the beginning, it's why I made that deal with Tange. I would kill you over him any day. When I made the deal I thought you were going to try and go for a Zach lynch, since that's what you pushed yesterday and since Tange opened by voting him. So I said that to Tange to make sure he would kill you on the last day, to force scum into nightkilling one of us if we're both town, and to get your focus onto me/Tange instead of Zach, since I was setting up scum you to be doomed. So I have been thinking about the last day.


Do you think I would have succeeded in getting Zach lynched? You would have let that happen?

As for why I want to kill you, it's not just because you are unscanned. Zach is unscanned, but I'm way more confident he;s town. For a number of reasons that are not just "the post". I've been vocal about that the whole game. Maybe a godfather janitor exists. Obviously I'm going to consider it. But Occam's Razor favors that it is just you, and I wont consider Godfather Janitor until I have a reason to believe there is one.


I mean, FD has a very clear cut reason for why he's Town. Reading back, Zach sounds more and more like confused noob Town who doesn't get why people won't treat him as confirmed. But you said it yourself Ben - you have looked awful this game. And Tange himself hasn't really looked much better, aside from his vote on Red. Now, I don't want you to rescrutinize - I want you to tell me, based on every bit of the game you have so far, if I flip Town, which of Zach/Tange would you lynch?

benjamin3740 posted...
So what's your point here? Who would YOU kill? You said you'd die if it makes us consider that Tange or Zach could be scum. But I thought your whole point of this exercise was to make sure we kill the right guy. Not tell us that Me, Zach, and Tange can all be potential scum. Sounds more like you're trying to sow doubt by this exercise than give definitive answers


No, I'm trying to get clear cut opinions so that we can make sure we make the right choice going into the last two days.

And my current preference is you, then Tange. In fact, rereading makes me so convinced it's you, that I'm willing to stake my life on it.

ColZach posted...
Tange also still not having a town read on me is quite frankly just starting to seem scummy. Also makes me me think that there is setup being planned for a final 3 mislynch on me.


This is why I'm asking right now. Tange has said he'd lynch you - if Ben is Scum, then Ben's words don't matter, and you get lynched tomorrow.

What I'd like to do is get FD's thoughts, then work through all the possible scenarios of a final day lynch.
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HanOfTheNekos
08/25/18 3:07:09 PM
#343:


benjamin3740 posted...
It doesnt mean I would kill you over Tange necessarily.


That's LITERALLY what you said you would do, though.
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benjamin3740
08/25/18 3:08:27 PM
#344:


HanOfTheNekos posted...
benjamin3740 posted...
It doesnt mean I would kill you over Tange necessarily.


That's LITERALLY what you said you would do, though.

Yeah. Did it scare ya?
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HanOfTheNekos
08/25/18 3:11:53 PM
#345:


Starting to read from Day 4 on - gonna focus on the remaining players.

- Tange approves of Chris's song choices, says he thinks Panth tried to recruit Scum, and votes Ben
- Ben says if Panth targeted Tony, they may still be able to talk
- Ben says screwwwwww Red and votes him
- Ben says it was fun to lynch IGCD
- Tange doesn't understand the Mason Recruiting
- Ben says Sultan is Scum, since Panth is Town
- Tange makes Ben out to be dumb for not realizing that ^
- Tange continues to not understand the Mason Recruiting, says that he thinks Panth targeted Tony but was killed in some other way
- Tange FINALLY understands how the Mason thing works, also says he's the second-to-last person that should have been targeted for recruitment
- Tange says he's obviously terrible Town
- Tange says he would much rather lynch Red/Ben over me
- ColZach is upset because he can't read and thought we were munching Red the previous night. Says Panth's dead is unfortunate. Begs people to say he's confirmed after eaed flipped
- Tange made this list about everyone in game:
1. TheSultanOfSlam

I dont like his claim, and I dont like his play. Im curious to see who he says he protected last night.

4. ColZach

Im on the fence about him. I didnt like him early on, but I think he looked better to me yesterday. Hes the one sheep scanned inno other than me, right? Or was it....

7. Mzero

I think hes likely among the scum and would be pushing for his lynch if not for bigger fish to fry in my mind. If he was the one sheep scanned, I think hes likely godfather.

8. Sheep007

Claimed, uncountered, cop. Theres no reason not to believe him. Town.

10. ChaosTonyV4

Nailed Alakazam to the wall with his counterclaim. I have no reason to believe he was lying. Firmly town.

11. turbopuns2

I see puns as town in this game. Hes been active and Ive generally liked what hes said.

12. Leafeon13N (red13N/Red)

He is....who we thought he was.....and we let him off the hook!!

Still very much convinced hes scum

13. Forceful_Dragon

His mayor play nailed scum Leo. Confirmed town.

14. DoubleTangicide

Hey thats me! Im town. Town vanilla, in fact.

16. HanOfTheNekos

His claim at the end of twilight is really weird. I dont see why he does it there. Im on the fence with him, but leaning scum.

17. Crescent-Moon

I honestly dont have too many thoughts on crescent, but there hasnt been anything that has been seriously intrusive in my mind to make me think theyre scum

18. Edumey

As with crescent

19. ScareChan

I am very much convinced scare is town.

20. Benjamin3740

I hate. HATE. HATE. his fun lynch statement. Especially if (when) red turns out to be scum.

21. htaeD (Death)

Hasnt really done allllll that much in the grand scheme of things so far....not what I usually expect from town death. But have no reason to believe hes scum right now either.


The weirdest thing about that list is that Tange says there's no reason not to believe Sheep is Town. But he says HE has no reason to believe Tony IS LYING. That's a really weird choice of words between the two of them.

- Tange asks if players are notified if they are poisoned, seeing if he can throw some more shade on Ben
- Ben said
If I was scum I'd be doing a better job in this game >.> Especially when it comes to lynches like last night's where my actions now make me look so bad. And I'd be AWARE of that as scum because I'd have known IGCD would flip town.

As for pushing Panth, he was the one who looked more likely scum to me. His responses just gave me more questions, and I found myself confident he was scum whereas with Leo I didn't have much to say since first I thought he was caught by puns, then I was waiting for his claim to see if it was at all believable. I don't even remember what he claimed, but at some point he was just as likely scum as Panth in my eyes, only I wanted to kill Panth first because I assumed he was role blocker


Important: Ben continued to push Panth after it was clear Panth wasn't RB.
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HanOfTheNekos
08/25/18 3:12:36 PM
#346:


benjamin3740 posted...
HanOfTheNekos posted...
benjamin3740 posted...
It doesnt mean I would kill you over Tange necessarily.


That's LITERALLY what you said you would do, though.

Yeah. Did it scare ya?


It looked like you were setting up Tange to mislynch whomever ended up as the third remaining person in the last day.
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ColZach
08/25/18 3:14:39 PM
#347:


DoubleTangicide posted...
ColZach posted...
Final 3 with me, ben, and Tange, I would have to go for Tange.

ISO on Ben is damning in some places, mainly in the interactions with red. Still, Im getting a dirty town read from it all.

However I really dont want to lynch Han given how much Ben/Tange have referenced their little deal, so I cant be on board right now.

Tange also still not having a town read on me is quite frankly just starting to seem scummy. Also makes me me think that there is setup being planned for a final 3 mislynch on me.


Theres literally one scum left. How would scum be conspiring in the Game to lynch you?


...

Yeah, Tange, if theres a godfather janitor its you.
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Forceful_Dragon
08/25/18 3:21:40 PM
#348:


HanOfTheNekos posted...
When the final three is Zach, Ben, and Tange, who would you want lynched?


I was leaning ben last night before bed, but based on your iso he seems like a much more clear choice.

But that is if you are town and if what you are saying today can really be trusted.

So if the game doesn't just end today then i would have to agree with your read.
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benjamin3740
08/25/18 3:25:29 PM
#349:


HanOfTheNekos posted...
Currently ISOing Day 4. But I'll respond to y'all first.

benjamin3740 posted...
I have been considering a potential next day since the beginning, it's why I made that deal with Tange. I would kill you over him any day. When I made the deal I thought you were going to try and go for a Zach lynch, since that's what you pushed yesterday and since Tange opened by voting him. So I said that to Tange to make sure he would kill you on the last day, to force scum into nightkilling one of us if we're both town, and to get your focus onto me/Tange instead of Zach, since I was setting up scum you to be doomed. So I have been thinking about the last day.


Do you think I would have succeeded in getting Zach lynched? You would have let that happen?

As for why I want to kill you, it's not just because you are unscanned. Zach is unscanned, but I'm way more confident he;s town. For a number of reasons that are not just "the post". I've been vocal about that the whole game. Maybe a godfather janitor exists. Obviously I'm going to consider it. But Occam's Razor favors that it is just you, and I wont consider Godfather Janitor until I have a reason to believe there is one.


I mean, FD has a very clear cut reason for why he's Town. Reading back, Zach sounds more and more like confused noob Town who doesn't get why people won't treat him as confirmed. But you said it yourself Ben - you have looked awful this game. And Tange himself hasn't really looked much better, aside from his vote on Red. Now, I don't want you to rescrutinize - I want you to tell me, based on every bit of the game you have so far, if I flip Town, which of Zach/Tange would you lynch?

benjamin3740 posted...
So what's your point here? Who would YOU kill? You said you'd die if it makes us consider that Tange or Zach could be scum. But I thought your whole point of this exercise was to make sure we kill the right guy. Not tell us that Me, Zach, and Tange can all be potential scum. Sounds more like you're trying to sow doubt by this exercise than give definitive answers


No, I'm trying to get clear cut opinions so that we can make sure we make the right choice going into the last two days.

And my current preference is you, then Tange. In fact, rereading makes me so convinced it's you, that I'm willing to stake my life on it.

ColZach posted...
Tange also still not having a town read on me is quite frankly just starting to seem scummy. Also makes me me think that there is setup being planned for a final 3 mislynch on me.


This is why I'm asking right now. Tange has said he'd lynch you - if Ben is Scum, then Ben's words don't matter, and you get lynched tomorrow.

What I'd like to do is get FD's thoughts, then work through all the possible scenarios of a final day lynch.

I would have tried my best, but Tange had voted Zach so it worried me.

I already did tell you. Tange if I had to lynch someone immediately with no extra information than you are Town.
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benjamin3740
08/25/18 3:32:06 PM
#350:


HanOfTheNekos posted...


No, I'm trying to get clear cut opinions so that we can make sure we make the right choice going into the last two days.

And my current preference is you, then Tange. In fact, rereading makes me so convinced it's you, that I'm willing to stake my life on it.



"so we can make the right choice going into the last two days"? Huh, you changed it. Right before that you said

"But I can't let myself be lynched without making sure that we're set to win in the day after."

You changed it because you realized that from your perspective we are not at all set to win with both me and Tange existing in the final day. So now you're saying the last two days so that you can still do a Ben and then Tange lynch. Because if you were to die, there is no reason you should think we're set to win. Heck, you still even entertain the idea of Zach being town

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I'm not Scum. And if I'm lynched today, I NEED to know how the next day is slated to go. If my death is necessary to put us in a position to consider that, maybe, there might be an innocent-scanning Janitor or that Zach might just be Scum and an asshole, then so be it. I'll die.


So which is it? Does your death put us in a position where we are set to win, or a position where any of the three players could possibly be scum?

This is the huge inconsistency I have been going after you on since post 1 of today.
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