Board 8 > Phoenix Wright Mafia Topic 12: Post-Turnabout Beginnings

(+) Yeah! (+)

But anyway, the unfortunate thing about "reasonable town" is it doesn't necessarily exist (see: this entire game, minus I guess Red who died before he had a chance to fuck anything up like the rest of us have). Considering possibilities is important, but so is actually pushing for the one you think is correct. As my own thought process filling this topic indicates, mafia often ends up in a place where you can make a case for anything. To win as town you have to be willing to trust your town reads so you can work together. Donker has given reason for believing Arti and myself. Does the lack of elaboration mean he's tunneling you and hoping it pays off or does it mean he feels confident he knows the right path to take and wants to make sure it doesn't get derailed? That's the question I have to ask. The relative difference in activity and behavior between you guys certainly means you're the more interesting one to play with by virtue of posting more with more thought put into it, but that doesn't necessarily say anything about alignment.
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LOL I did it again. Sorry folks, this final day is happening while Im at work.

If donk is TOWN he has lost US the game by making it a me vs him day

Im gonna go drink some water and sit down lmao

Also panth I fail to see how giving honest consideration of arti would derail town. If anything, going too fast without actually considering and discussing the options is what details town and loses us the game.

If donker is confident I am scum I am more confident that following his path will lose town the game. But, donk is likely scum and knew who his best target would be when the day started. Hence that vote as soon as he came into the topic.

[1] ColZach - NewDonker
[1] NewDonker - ColZach
[0] No Lynch - (Panthera)

2 hours and 15 minutes remain
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Donk, you dont get to be lazy today and Panth you shouldnt let him. Hes got his vote on me and his hands in the air saying well? So freakin scummy

So lets play a game. Donk, pretend the game is over and suppose Arti fooled us. Explain why he would lynch SE the way he would and create this situation for himself, assuming that you know Arti IS the final scum.

ColZach posted...

Also panth I fail to see how giving honest consideration of arti would derail town. If anything, going too fast without actually considering and discussing the options is what details town and loses us the game.

What? I never said anything about considering the possibility of Arti being scum derailing town. I've pointed out a few times that I've been thinking about him possibly being scum, I just keep concluding that he probably isn't. You're right that going too fast can screw town over but I'm not sure who you're arguing against that you thought said otherwise
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That was more towards donk who has not offered any analysis of Arti asides from a lame he lynched SE answer

What's your thought process at right now Arti?
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ColZach posted...

Donk, you dont get to be lazy today and Panth you shouldnt let him. Hes got his vote on me and his hands in the air saying well? So freakin scummy

So lets play a game. Donk, pretend the game is over and suppose Arti fooled us. Explain why he would lynch SE the way he would and create this situation for himself, assuming that you know Arti IS the final scum.

ColZach, please stop. You are flip flopping between me and Arti. You also made it Donk vs ColZach by suspecting me right back. I get it, you're mad that you lost the game for scum, but as soon as you realized town wasn't buying your bs on me, you switched to Arti, then switched back. You are scrambling for any lead to mislynch. I am 99% sure on my town reads on Arti and Pan. They are town beyond reasonable doubt.
Atop puttingwords in my mouth. It is not derailing town, but just stupid for me, Arti, and Pan to consider. You are the last scum. Plain and simple. You are trying to create unreasonable doubt in me and Pan's minds, and I'm not going to let that happen. I have a life outside of mafia, I have the last scum squarely in my crosshairs, I'm not wasting my time second guessing myself and imagining fantasies where Arti and Pan are scum.
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I havent flip flopped at all today which ismy entire point. Im actually trying to discuss all possibilities.

You shouldnt have the same level of read on Panth as you do Arti and thats an issue because what qualifies Panth as confirmed isnt nearly as concrete as arti.

Also...nice projection. Im trying to win the game for town and steal it from your aggressive ass hands. Arti isnt scum, but by actually trying to discuss him with you in the context youve made it clear your stance.

(I also never even brought up a situation where pan could be scum, so...nice)

You dont have time to actually discuss who scum could be? Thats why after day 4 town floundered and got here.

Please arti and Panth, tell me this level of aggression tips off your scum readings.

Also, donk lives in a world where suspecting someone has the same degree of consequence as actually dropping a vote.

By your own words Panth is also responsible for the ColZach vs Donk final day which is absolutely false because Panth-who is actually town, wants to discuss on the final day.

Just saying, hiding behind I have real life is such a cop out and scummy excuse to not discuss the game ending lynch.

Apologies I mistyped.

Arti suspected you from the beginning, so by your words Arti (who you say is confirmed town, I wonder how you know that?) is responsible for the VS mindset today

Panthera posted...

What's your thought process at right now Arti?

Regardless of all the digging I've done on Sceptile, I still think I'm more confident on Donk being scum here instead of ColZach. I think it just makes more sense at this point given how the game has played out so far.
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What do you make of SE bussing him, then? That's the biggest thing that gives me pause.

Donker, you should probably be aware that the fact SE was pushing to lynch you so hard is the biggest thing in your favour. I've been focusing primarily on Zach today because it seems like the best way to try to figure things out since it's clear you won't respond with anything of substance, so I can use my read on him to figure you out by process of elimination. I am not 100% on you being town by a long shot and your insistence on trying to get the game wrapped up while encouraging me to not think beyond the straightforward "SE voted Donker, SE was scum, Donker must be town" is a large part of that.
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The only thing I can think of for that is that SE is immune to the two scans we had (since they killed Shad adnd Scare to prevent those) and that he just bussed Donker to make himself look better. Corrik was very anti-MI and FD didn't like Death so leaving both scanners would have probably confused us a good deal if he survived.
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I still say that the biggest thing to argue why SE would bus donk is simple-he was a doppelgnger. He busses his GF to look good. Im still kind of in the boat that his alternate role (missle the dog right?) fooled all scans. Town was VERY strong this game so I can see the SE push onto Donk VERY easily.

Crescent had looked great all game so propelling into endgame would have generated a situation where SE could have possibly even been confirmed flavor-wise.

I disagree. Crescent did not look good after she completely went inactive as scum was getting mowed down. It's part of the reason why I joined on the SE lynch that time because I didn't trust her for a while after that.
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If SE was indeed innocent scanning then yeah, bussing is a lot more likely (although it still risks Zach being scanned and us deciding that SE is the one unconfirmed player and just lynching him anyway). How often is a double godfather set up used though? One being scanned while the other gets lynched basically confirms the first one, although in this case the Doppelganger role doesn't necessarily have that effect if it flips...as we have found out, obviously. It's a stronger role combo than the sum of its parts, and while town was pretty powerful, it was also a bit more limited than it looks (the Thief was every other night, the Cop would, in this scenario, have two scum it can't find and would risk making one look like confirmed town in the right situation, the Watcher was, well, ass). I'm hesitant to bet the game on an assumption about how an unknown role works.
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Arti posted...

I disagree. Crescent did not look good after she completely went inactive as scum was getting mowed down. It's part of the reason why I joined on the SE lynch that time because I didn't trust her for a while after that.

I feel like scum would expect that to be easily fixed so long as her replacement was active. It would be hard to fault SE for Crescent's inactivity when he could just argue that she was too busy to play - after all, she got replaced so it's not like she was lurking as an actual strategy.
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Having doppelgnger be immune to cop scans and thief scans is pretty unbalanced. Not just because of the amount of mafia that scans scum, but once one flips it pretty much confirms all the town scans. If we werent so lucky to be so late in the game that we lynched doppelgnger, then it couldve been that ColZach coasted on being scanned town the entire game. Having two godfathers is not good game balance, and I doubt veryinsane would do it.
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Thats kind of what I meant by crescent looked good all game-while crescent was in the game she looked good. Fortunately for us looking good wasnt enough to dissuade the scum inactivity radar.

Not to get off point, the reasoning is why SE would push for Donk. Its kind of a win-win honestly.

One - SE gets donk (The Godfather) lynched. SE looks awesome.

Two- SE doesnt get donk lynched but all that pressure is remembered. Donk looks good as a result of this.

Two is the exact position were in and basically the final reason we havent just won the game as town yet. It was a good plan and its paying off on the final day, leaving donk looking okay even with his essentially 10/10 scummy behavior today.

The problem is we will have to bet the game on an assumption anyway. Did Sceptile really only bus on day one and get bussed by three people on his scum team? It also seems odd as well if Sceptile/ColZach is scum.
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This argument that two scan foolers might be OP is a stretch. We had several scanners and a backup and a lawyer. Scum needed to be strong to deal with that.

Panthera posted...

If SE was indeed innocent scanning then yeah, bussing is a lot more likely (although it still risks Zach being scanned and us deciding that SE is the one unconfirmed player and just lynching him anyway). How often is a double godfather set up used though? One being scanned while the other gets lynched basically confirms the first one, although in this case the Doppelganger role doesn't necessarily have that effect if it flips...as we have found out, obviously. It's a stronger role combo than the sum of its parts, and while town was pretty powerful, it was also a bit more limited than it looks (the Thief was every other night, the Cop would, in this scenario, have two scum it can't find and would risk making one look like confirmed town in the right situation, the Watcher was, well, ass). I'm hesitant to bet the game on an assumption about how an unknown role works.

Damn, ninjaed

Also, just thought of the fact that being thief and cop verified is 99% verified. The only way is if they also happened to put in a kill that night and was tracked, because no one is questioning a cop and thief confirmed role. Seriously, having a doppelgnger godfather and godfather is way too broken.
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Oh, and remember that SE had a detective scan or something, so that role could still be caught moving at night

ColZach posted...

This argument that two scan foolers might be OP is a stretch. We had several scanners and a backup and a lawyer. Scum needed to be strong to deal with that.

The only way for them to be caught is them being tracked to a dead body, even then it could be played off as them being some other role, or them being tracked could be them fake claiming to live longer. Plus if a godfather flips, it confirms them even further. Imagine if you, as the last scum, have been verified by cop and thief. A godfather had flipped. There are people who have not been scanned. How do you get lynched? Yes, while its unlikely, it is possible.
Your entire argument hinges on one extremrlt broken setup being in the game.
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Arti posted...

The problem is we will have to bet the game on an assumption anyway. Did Sceptile really only bus on day one and get bussed by three people on his scum team? It also seems odd as well if Sceptile/ColZach is scum.

Yeah obviously there isn't a conclusive answer or we would have found it already, but at least when it comes to reading Sceptile's behavior, we're trying to draw conclusions based on his play. The Doppelganger thing has us trying to guess what VeryInsane was intending when he put it in the game.

ColZach posted...

This argument that two scan foolers might be OP is a stretch. We had several scanners and a backup and a lawyer. Scum needed to be strong to deal with that.

If town wasn't stacked like it is I wouldn't even entertain the notion, frankly. Double godfather is crazy powerful on its own, especially if one fools flavour scans as well. Extra especially if the watcher can't see names. Tracker is the only role that can catch either of them, so town needs to lynch them through reads before they can get cop/thief scanned and "confirm" themselves. Which, granted, is a legit enough reason to include it, to punish town for being too eager to just follow scans, but it's still pretty unusual. Like it's not impossible but it is pretty out there, you know? And scum is already pretty powerful even if Doppelganger isn't anti-cop, they have a role that bypasses each of our scanners, effectively two extra kills, an unblockable kill and a scanner.
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ColZach posted...

Oh, and remember that SE had a detective scan or something, so that role could still be caught moving at night

Thats even worse! They could claim a power role and then get tracker verified too! Besides, you can psss that off as them being town power not wanting to get killed by scum at night! No one lynches a cop verified thief verified player over being tracked to a non dead body!
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NewDonker posted...

ColZach posted...

Oh, and remember that SE had a detective scan or something, so that role could still be caught moving at night

Thats even worse! They could claim a power role and then get tracker verified too! Besides, you can psss that off as them being town power not wanting to get killed by scum at night! No one lynches a cop verified thief verified player over being tracked to a non dead body!

No. Some of our fellow town members though there was too much power already and we know that all of them are town now. Scum claiming a power role would be a death sentence
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All this is why SE tried to bus donk. If it works, it essentially wins the game. I get that its a lot, but it adds up.

And yeah, SE couldnt claim power. That would get a lynch real fast.

Arti posted...

NewDonker posted...

ColZach posted...

Oh, and remember that SE had a detective scan or something, so that role could still be caught moving at night

Thats even worse! They could claim a power role and then get tracker verified too! Besides, you can psss that off as them being town power not wanting to get killed by scum at night! No one lynches a cop verified thief verified player over being tracked to a non dead body!

No. Some of our fellow town members though there was too much power already and we know that all of them are town now. Scum claiming a power role would be a death sentence

Again, this hinges on a tracker tracking someone confirmed, and them claiming vanilla beforehand. They couldve never had to claim.
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ColZach posted...

All this is why scum tried to bus Sceptile. If it works, it essentially wins the game.

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All the way...on day 1...

Yes, Donk, they tried to make this game-winning play day 1. Then they got lynched 4 days in a row. They got desperate, which led to this play, which was a good play, but they should have told you on the scum board to play a little less aggressive.

I mean donk your arguments are starting to fall apart now, too.

SE had to claim almost immediately after being replaced.

Scum tried to bus scep day 1.

SE tried to bus you Day 6 to place SE in a game winning position WITH the backup plan of making you look good when SE got lynched.

ColZach posted...

All the way...on day 1...

Yes, Donk, they tried to make this game-winning play day 1. Then they got lynched 4 days in a row. They got desperate, which led to this play, which was a good play, but they should have told you on the scum board to play a little less aggressive.

Im just saying that you being biased by your scummates on day 1 means jack shit
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Which is it Donker, does Sceptile being pressured by scum on day 1 mean jack shit or does it mean they were trying to win the game by making him look good? I'm not seeing how those two ideas are the same
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About a half an hour remains
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Panthera posted...

Which is it Donker, does Sceptile being pressured by scum on day 1 mean jack shit or does it mean they were trying to win the game by making him look good? I'm not seeing how those two ideas are the same

I think it could be a way to make him look better by bussing him, to make them look better by bidding him, or it couldve meant nothing. Either way, its not a plus for Zach.
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Panthera posted...

Which is it Donker, does Sceptile being pressured by scum on day 1 mean jack shit or does it mean they were trying to win the game by making him look good? I'm not seeing how those two ideas are the same

What it is is crunch time and the last scum cant handle the pressure. Im willing to bet Donk came into the topic today assuming dropping a vote on me would lead to an easy scum win.

You don't see a scenario where scum goes after Sceptile because they would rather lynch town than scum? Two scum leading the lynch, why splinter off onto another when you could just pile onto Zam, who wouldn't exactly be hard to justify voting for?

I can't get over your lack of paranoia that Arti or I could be scum. I mean, I've come to terms with seeing Arti as scum but I still have been trying to include the possibility of him being scum in my thought process just to be safe. If you think scum bussing day 1 would be a winning strategy for the whole game, why does it not cross your mind that maybe I bussed SE to make myself look peachy and leave you alive to be an easy mislynch?
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ColZach posted...

What it is is crunch time and the last scum cant handle the pressure. Im willing to bet Donk came into the topic today assuming dropping a vote on me would lead to an easy scum win.

Why would he assume that? I don't remember what Arti's position on you two was, but I had been fairly clear about having a town read on you. Like, I said that a lot. It was only during the night phase where I thought about the SE lynched and started to think it cleared Donker. He had no particular reason to think a lynch on you would just go off without a hitch
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Panthera posted...

You don't see a scenario where scum goes after Sceptile because they would rather lynch town than scum? Two scum leading the lynch, why splinter off onto another when you could just pile onto Zam, who wouldn't exactly be hard to justify voting for?

I can't get over your lack of paranoia that Arti or I could be scum. I mean, I've come to terms with seeing Arti as scum but I still have been trying to include the possibility of him being scum in my thought process just to be safe. If you think scum bussing day 1 would be a winning strategy for the whole game, why does it not cross your mind that maybe I bussed SE to make myself look peachy and leave you alive to be an easy mislynch?

Again, it could be nothing. But this is the scum team who kidnapped one of their own. But also it gets into this situation now where why does scum push for one of their own?
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Arti if you're scum I will haunt you forever fyi

NewDonker posted...

Again, it could be nothing. But this is the scum team who kidnapped one of their own. But also it gets into this situation now where why does scum push for one of their own?

Arti and I had no risk of being scanned, as scum we'd just kill Death and be happy to let you/Zach be mislynched based on who MI scanned, with FD/MI being in there somewhere. The very fact that we look so good to you should seem like cause enough, right? I mean, I think Arti is town...but I know I can't be certain of it, which means I can't see why you're so certain about us.
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Panthera posted...

ColZach posted...

What it is is crunch time and the last scum cant handle the pressure. Im willing to bet Donk came into the topic today assuming dropping a vote on me would lead to an easy scum win.

Why would he assume that? I don't remember what Arti's position on you two was, but I had been fairly clear about having a town read on you. Like, I said that a lot. It was only during the night phase where I thought about the SE lynched and started to think it cleared Donker. He had no particular reason to think a lynch on you would just go off without a hitch

Basically the same as my position
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Im not paranoid about you or Arti as scum. If either of you are scum the game is won for scum because thats a one in a thousand chain of events.

I kept Arti as a possibility for the exact same reason you did, discuss the possibilities, get more insight on it from other players.

I no longer think you or Arti can be scum.

I say that (referring to what I said about donk) because of his behavior is this topic, acting annoyed that you two didnt fall in line and vote for me.

Oh, lol, I thought I was being spoken to!

Well, my post still portrays my thought processes!

Panthera posted...

Arti if you're scum I will haunt you forever fyi

NewDonker posted...

Again, it could be nothing. But this is the scum team who kidnapped one of their own. But also it gets into this situation now where why does scum push for one of their own?

Arti and I had no risk of being scanned, as scum we'd just kill Death and be happy to let you/Zach be mislynched based on who MI scanned, with FD/MI being in there somewhere. The very fact that we look so good to you should seem like cause enough, right? I mean, I think Arti is town...but I know I can't be certain of it, which means I can't see why you're so certain about us.

There is a difference when youve got a full, healthy scum team, plus lots of people and less info so you have a chance of pulling through it
vs later when scum team is in shambles and less people and more people are confirmed so its an extremely high chance to get lynched.
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Am I the only one who noticed Donker's posts got a lot more thoughtful at some point? Like he went from quoting his brief prior posts (which were just references to arguments I made) and getting cranky that Zach won't give up to being a lot more eager to discuss role meta/balance and such in detail

Right when I pointed out to him that I wasn't actually all that sold on him being town because of his apparent desire to just wrap things up?
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NewDonker posted...

There is a difference when youve got a full, healthy scum team, plus lots of people and less info so you have a chance of pulling through it
vs later when scum team is in shambles and less people and more people are confirmed so its an extremely high chance to get lynched.

Yeah, when you have a full team you don't know which person might still be alive days later, whereas when you're in dire straits you need a home run play and can be sure that your already-scanned-innocent player will make it to endgame with a shot
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Absolutely Ive noticed this which is another reason why I said he was cracking.

But, it could also be his scum team screaming at him from the scum board to slow down, which would explain his behavior.