Current Events > Very unlikely but can someone familiar with probability help me?

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LordFarquad1312 05/24/18 10:09:46 PM #1:	Basically, I remember during a lecture the teacher talked about the time it would take for a random event to happen. As an example, and it's probably wrong since I'm pulling it out of my ass, and event with a 1/10000000000000000000 chance of happening would only happen once in the entire history of the universe. Does this sound familiar to anyone at all, and if so, where can I check it to refresh my mind? --- The force is my ally "If you are tired of fear from links... Let Kirby's Nightmare protect you." <cite>LordFarquad1312 posted [p:901939090] in Very unlik... [t:76640736]...</cite> <quote>Basically, I remember during a lecture the teacher talked about the time it would take for a random event to happen. As an example, and it's probably wrong since I'm pulling it out of my ass, and event with a 1/10000000000000000000 chance of happening would only happen once in the entire history of the universe. Does this sound familiar to anyone at all, and if so, where can I check it to refresh my mind?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ProfessorKukui 05/24/18 10:13:36 PM #3:	Probably not. <cite>ProfessorKukui posted [p:901939289] in Very unlik... [t:76640736]...</cite> <quote>Probably not.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LordFarquad1312 05/24/18 10:13:57 PM #4:	Like, an event with a 1 chance always happens. And event with a 1/10 chance happens every x time. And event with a 1/1000 happens every y time. And event with a 1/1000000 chance happens once in a lifetime, etc. I made up this chances, and would like to know the actual numbers and how long it takes for them to happen, if such a thing even exists, it could well be my teacher was making things up. --- The force is my ally "If you are tired of fear from links... Let Kirby's Nightmare protect you." <cite>LordFarquad1312 posted [p:901939312] in Very unlik... [t:76640736]...</cite> <quote>Like, an event with a 1 chance always happens. And event with a 1/10 chance happens every x time. And event with a 1/1000 happens every y time. And event with a 1/1000000 chance happens once in a lifetime, etc. I made up this chances, and would like to know the actual numbers and how long it takes for them to happen, if such a thing even exists, it could well be my teacher was making things up.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LordFarquad1312 05/24/18 10:20:26 PM #5:	It might have something to do with the expected frequency of the event? --- The force is my ally "If you are tired of fear from links... Let Kirby's Nightmare protect you." <cite>LordFarquad1312 posted [p:901939648] in Very unlik... [t:76640736]...</cite> <quote>It might have something to do with the expected frequency of the event?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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thronedfire2 05/24/18 10:24:16 PM #7:	50/50 chance, either it happens or it doesn't --- I could see you, but I couldn't hear you You were holding your hat in the breeze Turning away from me In this moment you were stolen... <cite>thronedfire2 posted [p:901939851] in Very unlik... [t:76640736]...</cite> <quote>50/50 chance, either it happens or it doesn't</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Ki_cat_ 05/24/18 10:24:29 PM #8:	You're asking for specific numbers behind "once in a lifetime" and such? Completely depends on the event. --- People are afraid of what they don't understand. <cite>Ki_cat_ posted [p:901939862] in Very unlik... [t:76640736]...</cite> <quote>You're asking for specific numbers behind "once in a lifetime" and such? Completely depends on the event.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LordFarquad1312 05/24/18 10:28:42 PM #9:	Ki_cat_ posted... You're asking for specific numbers behind "once in a lifetime" and such? Completely depends on the event. Basically, I saw a video of a softlock in Pokemon where the only chance of getting out of it was to miss an attack with a 1/256 chance of missing 20 times in a row. The author claimed it was theoretically possible to get out of it, but I'm pretty sure the odds are so astronomically low it would take longer than the age of the universe for it to happen, so statistically speaking, it might as well be impossible. I would like some way to justify my claim. --- The force is my ally "If you are tired of fear from links... Let Kirby's Nightmare protect you." <cite>LordFarquad1312 posted [p:901940064] in Very unlik... [t:76640736]...</cite> <quote><cite>Ki_cat_ posted...</cite> <quote>You're asking for specific numbers behind "once in a lifetime" and such? Completely depends on the event.</quote> Basically, I saw a video of a softlock in Pokemon where the only chance of getting out of it was to miss an attack with a 1/256 chance of missing 20 times in a row. The author claimed it was theoretically possible to get out of it, but I'm pretty sure the odds are so astronomically low it would take longer than the age of the universe for it to happen, so statistically speaking, it might as well be impossible. I would like some way to justify my claim.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
DifferentialEquation 05/24/18 10:32:55 PM #10:	https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/1196452/expected-value-of-the-number-of-flips-until-the-first-head --- There's no business to be taxed. <cite>DifferentialEquation posted [p:901940318] in Very unlik... [t:76640736]...</cite> <quote>https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/1196452/expected-value-of-the-number-of-flips-until-the-first-head</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Aristoph 05/24/18 10:34:30 PM #11:	It would entirely depend on how quickly the attempts are made. Even something with a 1-in-a-quadrillion chance is going to happen about once every 3171 years if there are 10 thousands attempts per second, for example. --- PSN ID: Aristoph http://www.youtube.com/user/SotCRules <cite>Aristoph posted [p:901940411] in Very unlik... [t:76640736]...</cite> <quote>It would entirely depend on how quickly the attempts are made. Even something with a 1-in-a-quadrillion chance is going to happen about once every 3171 years if there are 10 thousands attempts per second, for example.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Ki_cat_ 05/24/18 10:35:09 PM #12:	Yes, super low odds are pretty much not possible. It "could" happen but won't. 1/250 isn't bad for drop rates or the shiny rate is okay but for a move to hit? It's destined to miss. The odds don't even mean much. It could hit 20 times in the next hour or pretty much never. --- People are afraid of what they don't understand. <cite>Ki_cat_ posted [p:901940441] in Very unlik... [t:76640736]...</cite> <quote>Yes, super low odds are pretty much not possible. It "could" happen but won't. 1/250 isn't bad for drop rates or the shiny rate is okay but for a move to hit? It's destined to miss. The odds don't even mean much. It could hit 20 times in the next hour or pretty much never.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
muchdran 05/24/18 10:36:26 PM #13:	I think I know this one --- If liberals didn't have double standards, they wouldn't have standards at all. <cite>muchdran posted [p:901940517] in Very unlik... [t:76640736]...</cite> <quote>I think I know this one</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LordFarquad1312 05/24/18 10:38:28 PM #14:	Aristoph posted... It would entirely depend on how quickly the attempts are made. Even something with a 1-in-a-quadrillion chance is going to happen about once every 3171 years if there are 10 thousands attempts per second, for example. Is the 3171 figure accurate or did you make it up? --- The force is my ally "If you are tired of fear from links... Let Kirby's Nightmare protect you." <cite>LordFarquad1312 posted [p:901940639] in Very unlik... [t:76640736]...</cite> <quote><cite>Aristoph posted...</cite> <quote>It would entirely depend on how quickly the attempts are made. Even something with a 1-in-a-quadrillion chance is going to happen about once every 3171 years if there are 10 thousands attempts per second, for example.</quote> Is the 3171 figure accurate or did you make it up?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LordFarquad1312 05/24/18 10:42:39 PM #15:	Like, let's assume it takes a minute for the event to happen. How often can we expect an event with a (1/256)^20 to happen? --- The force is my ally "If you are tired of fear from links... Let Kirby's Nightmare protect you." <cite>LordFarquad1312 posted [p:901940864] in Very unlik... [t:76640736]...</cite> <quote>Like, let's assume it takes a minute for the event to happen. How often can we expect an event with a (1/256)^20 to happen?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KainWind 05/24/18 10:49:48 PM #16:	LordFarquad1312 posted... Like, let's assume it takes a minute for the event to happen. How often can we expect an event with a (1/256)^20 to happen? Once every 2,780,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years? --- https://imgur.com/nShwM9s https://imgur.com/5szqsBI https://imgur.com/KihR72L https://imgur.com/bCo6Qbd <cite>KainWind posted [p:901941242] in Very unlik... [t:76640736]...</cite> <quote><cite>LordFarquad1312 posted...</cite> <quote>Like, let's assume it takes a minute for the event to happen. How often can we expect an event with a (1/256)^20 to happen?</quote> Once every 2,780,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Aristoph 05/24/18 10:50:41 PM #17:	LordFarquad1312 posted... Is the 3171 figure accurate or did you make it up? It's a rough estimate, really. 1 quadrillion divided by 10k equals the number of seconds for that many attempts. Divide that by 60 to get number of minutes, 60 again for number of hours, then 24 for number of days, finally 365 for number of years. Comes out to 3170.979~. Didn't really do any proper probability calculations. Just going with "happens once in a quadrillion, so how long would it take for a quadrillion tries?" --- PSN ID: Aristoph http://www.youtube.com/user/SotCRules <cite>Aristoph posted [p:901941279] in Very unlik... [t:76640736]...</cite> <quote><cite>LordFarquad1312 posted...</cite> <quote> Is the 3171 figure accurate or did you make it up?</quote> It's a rough estimate, really. 1 quadrillion divided by 10k equals the number of seconds for that many attempts. Divide that by 60 to get number of minutes, 60 again for number of hours, then 24 for number of days, finally 365 for number of years. Comes out to 3170.979~. Didn't really do any proper probability calculations. Just going with "happens once in a quadrillion, so how long would it take for a quadrillion tries?"</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LordFarquad1312 05/24/18 10:50:58 PM #18:	KainWind posted... LordFarquad1312 posted... Like, let's assume it takes a minute for the event to happen. How often can we expect an event with a (1/256)^20 to happen? Once every 2,780,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years? How did you arrive at this number? --- The force is my ally "If you are tired of fear from links... Let Kirby's Nightmare protect you." <cite>LordFarquad1312 posted [p:901941292] in Very unlik... [t:76640736]...</cite> <quote><cite>KainWind posted...</cite> <quote><cite>LordFarquad1312 posted...</cite> <quote>Like, let's assume it takes a minute for the event to happen. How often can we expect an event with a (1/256)^20 to happen?</quote> Once every 2,780,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years?</quote> How did you arrive at this number?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KainWind 05/24/18 10:51:52 PM #19:	LordFarquad1312 posted... KainWind posted... LordFarquad1312 posted... Like, let's assume it takes a minute for the event to happen. How often can we expect an event with a (1/256)^20 to happen? Once every 2,780,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years? How did you arrive at this number? 256^20 minutes converted to years. --- https://imgur.com/oMugXmg https://imgur.com/RqZEfZX https://imgur.com/ZDQ6hEl https://imgur.com/QTyiblu <cite>KainWind posted [p:901941336] in Very unlik... [t:76640736]...</cite> <quote><cite>LordFarquad1312 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>KainWind posted...</cite> <quote><cite>LordFarquad1312 posted...</cite> <quote>Like, let's assume it takes a minute for the event to happen. How often can we expect an event with a (1/256)^20 to happen?</quote> Once every 2,780,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years?</quote> How did you arrive at this number?</quote> 256^20 minutes converted to years.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LordFarquad1312 05/24/18 10:52:14 PM #20:	Aristoph posted... LordFarquad1312 posted... Is the 3171 figure accurate or did you make it up? It's a rough estimate, really. 1 quadrillion divided by 10k equals the number of seconds for that many attempts. Divide that by 60 to get number of minutes, 60 again for number of hours, then 24 for number of days, finally 365 for number of years. Comes out to 3170.979~. Didn't really do any proper probability calculations. Just going with "happens once in a quadrillion, so how long would it take for a quadrillion tries?" I see, I see. This is pretty much along the lines of what I'm asking :D --- The force is my ally "If you are tired of fear from links... Let Kirby's Nightmare protect you." <cite>LordFarquad1312 posted [p:901941354] in Very unlik... [t:76640736]...</cite> <quote><cite>Aristoph posted...</cite> <quote><cite>LordFarquad1312 posted...</cite> <quote> Is the 3171 figure accurate or did you make it up?</quote> It's a rough estimate, really. 1 quadrillion divided by 10k equals the number of seconds for that many attempts. Divide that by 60 to get number of minutes, 60 again for number of hours, then 24 for number of days, finally 365 for number of years. Comes out to 3170.979~. Didn't really do any proper probability calculations. Just going with "happens once in a quadrillion, so how long would it take for a quadrillion tries?"</quote> I see, I see. This is pretty much along the lines of what I'm asking :D</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LordFarquad1312 05/24/18 10:54:16 PM #21:	KainWind posted... LordFarquad1312 posted... KainWind posted... LordFarquad1312 posted... Like, let's assume it takes a minute for the event to happen. How often can we expect an event with a (1/256)^20 to happen? Once every 2,780,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years? How did you arrive at this number? 256^20 minutes converted to years. This sounds very reasonable and now I feel stupid for not thinking of it. Thank you. --- The force is my ally "If you are tired of fear from links... Let Kirby's Nightmare protect you." <cite>LordFarquad1312 posted [p:901941460] in Very unlik... [t:76640736]...</cite> <quote><cite>KainWind posted...</cite> <quote><cite>LordFarquad1312 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>KainWind posted...</cite> <quote><cite>LordFarquad1312 posted...</cite> <quote>Like, let's assume it takes a minute for the event to happen. How often can we expect an event with a (1/256)^20 to happen?</quote> Once every 2,780,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years?</quote> How did you arrive at this number?</quote> 256^20 minutes converted to years.</quote> This sounds very reasonable and now I feel stupid for not thinking of it. Thank you.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Current Events > Very unlikely but can someone familiar with probability help me? (+) Yeah! (+)

Current Events > Very unlikely but can someone familiar with probability help me?