Current Events > GOP tax cut isn't seen as likely by EOY on betting markets.

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/4395/Will-the-individual-tax-rate-be-cut-by-the-end-of-2017#data

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-congress-pass-tax-reform-by-the-end-of-the-year-3565

Both are putting it around a 30% chance. This seems logical, given the seven senators who are opposed to one element of it or another:

http://www.newsweek.com/tax-plan-senate-republicans-susan-collins-717301

Johnson is a sure, 100% no. If the vote occurs before the AL election, he's the only one they can lose; as such they have to vote before then. But right now, Collins is a very high probability no due to the obamacare provision.

Which means to have a successful vote they must have all of McCain (opposed to obamacare provision), Flake (opposed to raising deficit and not seeking re-election), Corker (opposed to raising deficit at all and not seeking re-election), and Murkowski (opposed to obamacare provision).

That seems like a death sentence to the bill. Two separate sub-groups of three senators each adamantly refuse to vote for a bill that either guts obamacare (necessary to even have potential to be deficit neutral) or raises the deficit (impossible without gutting obamacare)

It is up significantly in both markets in the last 24 hrs, though, which likely is driving the present stock rally. But it's still not likely.
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Good
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