Board 8 > College Football Discussion Topic Week 9-B+Down

(+) Yeah! (+)

ShatteredElysium posted...

Notre Dame could really play spoiler if they win out. I don't think they should be top 4 right now but if they win out they have a solid case since everyone around/above them will knock each other out.

I don't think the committee tries to be cute this early. They know a lot will play itself out and by tossing Notre Dame into top 4 now they potentially back themselves into a corner if say Wisconsin goes unbeaten and Clemson win out plus Alabama/Georgia is close

Just so we're on the same page here...

There is now LITERALLY no situation in which ND could win out and not be top 4. Literally say you were god and you could control every other game in America the rest of the season but you are lettting ND win every games and your ONLY objective is to keep ND out.... you would not be able to

Penn St losing today ended any chance of that.

Not including the SEC there are TWO undefeated teams in conferences that matter.

And ND plays one of them.

If Wisconsin wins out, and so does ND. Those 2 and the SEC is the playoff.

If Wisconsin doesn't win out. ND does.

It's SEC ND and who the fuck even knows.

But with their schedule, there is no one loss team they wouldn't jump (except GA, for obvious reasons). They are treated as Confernce Champs by default, so say Clemson wins out. They don't get the conference Champ tie breaker over them. And ND will have a stronger schedule. Same for Oklahoma. And I believe the PAC 12 everyone alsreasy has 2 losses

bng_mmmk posted...

Yeah, we'll take it!

2nd time beating Tennessee in our last 33 meetings. Somehow with 4 fumbles.

ALL recovered by Tennessee.

There is about a 7% chance that happens.... so
Of course it happened to us

If we make the Outback Bowl you wanna come with?

Notre Dame needs either another Clemson loss, a 2-loss Big 10 Champion, or possibly a 1-loss Wisconsin that wins the big ten championship unconvincingly.

They're next in line after Clemson I'd imagine at this point. I think they're a virtual lock for #5 if they win out and all others hold.

(I'll believe this committee doesn't have a hard on for Clemson when I see it)

But yes, Notre Dame is definitely lurking.

The top 4 is Alabama/Georgia/OSU and probably Wisconsin.

Given that they never even considered dropping Washington out of the top 4 last year, they'll probably sell out the same way again. Wisconsin has simply been better than Miami, and neither has played anyone of merit, so I think they get the nod.
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Meow1000 posted...

Notre Dame needs either another Clemson loss, a 2-loss Big 10 Champion, or possibly a 1-loss Wisconsin that wins the big ten championship unconvincingly.

They're next in line after Clemson I'd imagine at this point. I think they're a virtual lock for #5 if they win out and all others hold.

(I'll believe this committee doesn't have a hard on for Clemson when I see it)

But yes, Notre Dame is definitely lurking.

The top 4 is Alabama/Georgia/OSU and probably Wisconsin.

Given that they never even considered dropping Washington out of the top 4 last year, they'll probably sell out the same way again. Wisconsin has simply been better than Miami, and neither has played anyone of merit, so I think they get the nod.

ND would make it over one loss Clemson. Lock stock and barrel.

They'd have a far far better schedule, and their only loss would be either #1 Ga, or #3 Ga... while Clemson's loss was to a horrid Cuse.

If the Irish win out they will beat 2 more numbered teams. They HAVE to be in.
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eaedwards6400 posted...

If the Irish win out they will beat 2 more numbered teams. They HAVE to be in.

To add to the 3 they already beat...

And one of those 2 is undefeated and will probably be top 4 when they play.

I did the math kids....

236 penalties on one play

114 on Kentucky
122 on Tennessee (so they have a record which will by god never be broken)

The worst officials ever....

I am so fucking angry at Penn State right now.

The defense for crumbling. McSorely for being a fucking shame joke horror show of a quarterback. James Franklin for letting them believe their own hype WAY TOO MUCH. Everything. They had that Ohio State team who is VERY INFERIOR, make no mistakes about it, dead to rights. And they let them off the hook, in Columbus.

They don't deserve to make the playoff for that and I hope they don't make it. There's little chance that they do, considering the schedules. But they absolutely do not deserve it. Fucking idiotic morons at every single position.
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SSJBGenkiDama posted...

eaedwards6400 posted...

If the Irish win out they will beat 2 more numbered teams. They HAVE to be in.

To add to the 3 they already beat...

And one of those 2 is undefeated and will probably be top 4 when they play.

You do realize Clemson will also almost necessarily have to play Miami right?
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Also I think there is an underrated possibility that one loss Georgia could miss the playoffs

Clemson and Notre Dame both have much stronger schedules and if they both win out I dont see how it isnt

One Loss ACC Champion Clemson
Undefeated or even potentially 1 loss SEC Champion Alabama
One Loss Big Ten Champion or Undefeated Big Ten Champion Wisconsin
One Loss Notre Dame

The SEC hasnt been THAT dominant this year and to boot Georgia is in the worse half of the division. I think they pretty much need to win the SEC to get in along with probably Alabama which does have a stronger schedule and which would probably kick one of the other 3 out.
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Eddv posted...

SSJBGenkiDama posted...

eaedwards6400 posted...

If the Irish win out they will beat 2 more numbered teams. They HAVE to be in.

To add to the 3 they already beat...

And one of those 2 is undefeated and will probably be top 4 when they play.

You do realize Clemson will also almost necessarily have to play Miami right?

And?

ND will have 5 ranked wins.
Clemson will have 2
ND will have a loss to a top 3 team
Clemson will have a loss to a top 90 team.

The fact they will both play Miami isn't relevant since NDs resume is already far better than Clemsons.

Eddv posted...

Also I think there is an underrated possibility that one loss Georgia could miss the playoffs

Clemson and Notre Dame both have much stronger schedules and if they both win out I dont see how it isnt

One Loss ACC Champion Clemson
Undefeated or even potentially 1 loss SEC Champion Alabama
One Loss Big Ten Champion or Undefeated Big Ten Champion Wisconsin
One Loss Notre Dame

The SEC hasnt been THAT dominant this year and to boot Georgia is in the worse half of the division. I think they pretty much need to win the SEC to get in along with probably Alabama which does have a stronger schedule and which would probably kick one of the other 3 out.

Georgia is guaranteed to make it unless they lose before Bama now (or lose by 80), or ND loses.

You can't put ND in and not Georgia under any circumstance. That's why Georgia is safe.

The way Georgia doesn't make it would be for ND to lose.. but even if that happens, ND was one of the teams that could have taken a spot from them, so if they lose now you are lower on teams that can knock them out. If ND loses you are down to the Big 10 winner and ACC winner and Big 12 Winner. OSU is out if Oklahoma is still available. (If it's for the last spot) and there simply isn't a situation that Georgia will drop from #2 to Oklahoma which will be at best #8 going into that week if everyone else wins out (and if they all don't win out except TCU then its academic as Georgia makes it anyway.

Yeah you can - Notre Dame has played a hellish schedule.

Georgia will go through their whole season playing just three games of note - Notre Dame, Auburn and the SEC title game.

They need to win all 3.

Losing to Auburn or losing the SEC title game puts them in the category of needing help.
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Actually looking at things Notre Dame and Clemson have such similar schedules that are both so much better than Georgias that really everything kind of boils down to Auburn.

Auburn running the table vs losing 2 games really has a dramatic effect on things.
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One of the biggest question marks to me will be how much credit the SEC is given in the CFP rankings. Honestly, the SEC is on a down year, and I think people are a bit slow to realize it because it has (rightfully) earned so much respect over so many successful seasons. I do think Georgia is legit, and I think they should receive serious consideration if Alabama is their only loss. But the SEC is kind of shit.

Eddv posted...

Yeah you can - Notre Dame has played a hellish schedule.

Georgia will go through their whole season playing just three games of note - Notre Dame, Auburn and the SEC title game.

They need to win all 3.

Losing to Auburn or losing the SEC title game puts them in the category of needing help.

They got all the help they needed today. With Penn

There literally is not one single journalist who believes there is any chance Ga will drop out of the playoff if they win out till Bama.

It was also brought up today "if Alabama and Georgia both make Atlanta unblemished do they make the playoff?" "Oh, without question".

In short not a single person who matters believes a one loss Ga (or Bama for that matter) with their only loss being to #1 Ga/Bama isn't making the college football playoff now. Reminder that 2 years ago Miss St would have actually made the Playoff without even PLAYING in the SEC Championship, their only loss was Bama till they choked in the Egg bowl. But the committee said absoltlely had they won they would have been in. Over the conference Champion. Ga controls their own Destiny if they make it to Atlanta with a 0 in the loss column.

Yes we are literally saying almost the same thing.

Auburn has the potential to upset one or both of Georgia or Alabama which would put a very big wrench into things.

Georgias SoS is much weaker than Notre Dame and Clemson and Ohio State is still around too. I dont have like the MOST faith in them but wandering around with just the loss to OU if they are big 10 champion you have a lot of real problems crop up for a number of teams and a Georgia that doesn't run the table is in no way immune to this.
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Like I get why it's a discussion and why it has a real chance of happening but I would hate it if both Georgia and Alabama made it (or any 2 teams that meet in a conference title game) . Largely because to me at that point the conference title game is a play in game. It's already on neutral ground so it's not like the loser can say well we lost a close one but were on the road

Georgia hasn't lost yet though.
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Looks like the committee finally learned it's lesson.

Wisconsin and Miami are at just 9 and 10.

(And Bama is again inexplicably not-1).
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It's completely explicable - Georgia has a win over the #3 team, Alabama doesn't

The CFP doesn't care about performance in past years

The good news is that now Georgia is #1 they're going to lose for sure.

...I mean to Auburn of course. You didn't think I meant to South Carolina at home this weekend, did you?
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I'm looking at Wisconsin's results and I don't even see anything on there that puts them above UCF. At least UCF has a ranked win on their schedule and an impressive one at that.

But I think UCF got under ranked anyway. I would have had them a few spots up. Not that it matters for them since they just need to win out and not worry about anything else for their NY6 bid

Dr_Football posted...

I am fully prepared for a OU-Iowa St Big 12 title rematch

I have also accepted that Georgia is going to make the playoff this year after losing to Bama in the SEC title game

We shall see. Let us assume that nobody outside the current 4-way tie for first place defeats anyone in it. The three games in question are TCU-OU, OU-OKST, and OKST-ISU.

If TCU defeats OU, they're in the title game. Likewise, ISU is in the title game if they beat OKST. So if both of those happen, it's TCU-ISU. If TCU wins, but ISU loses, TCU will face the Bedlam winner. If ISU wins, but TCU loses...it's probably ISU-OU regardless of how Bedlam goes, because an OK State win in Bedlam would create a triangle and OU probably gets the tiebreaker due to rankings. If neither TCU nor ISU wins, it's probably OU-TCU if OU wins Bedlam (OKST, TCU, and ISU would be in the triangular tie, and TCU would have the rankings edge and the head-to-head over OKST), but definitely OKST-ISU if OKST wins Bedlam because the three-way tie for second place wouldn't be triangular; it'd be ISU 2-0, OU 1-1, TCU 0-2. At least, I'm assuming that the tiebreakers work that way; I know that the whole UT-OU-TTU kerfuffle came because the three teams were 1-1 against each other and 10-0 against the rest of their schedules.

OK State is considered a slight favorite in Bedlam. That title never seemed more appropriate.
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