Current Events > neat graph of jobs threatened by automation

(+) Yeah! (+)

http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/high_school_and_beyond/Automation_jobs_Bloomberg.PNG

I told you medical assistants and home health aides were gonna get automated way before doctors @Transcendentia
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Unemployment has remained about the same for the past 100 years despite far greater leaps in automation than what we'll get in the forseeable future.
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medical assistants don't do work that is overtly complex. it's easy to automate, and places like Japan already have tremendous progress in this area.

surgeons and doctors are so highly paid and hard to train that there's huge profit incentive for their roles to be automated. and technology is finally getting to the point where it's technically possible to automate those roles. so we'll see autonomous surgery and autonomous doctors much sooner than we all realize.

much like how self-driving cars are just a couple of years away even though people think they're really far away.

of course i'd fully expect the government to interfere with progress and try to "save da jerbs!!!" like India's government is doing
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my job is gonna be automated!!!!!
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if automation took over programming jobs who will program the software that programs the software?
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KnightofShikari posted...

if automation took over programming jobs who will program the software that programs the software?

programs
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KnightofShikari posted...

if automation took over programming jobs who will program the software that programs the software?

this already exists in a field called genetic programming.

and a lot of AI involves self-modifying agents
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Pharmacists are at the far left end, so I'm feeling pretty good.
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Super Saiyan 3 Goku posted...

Pharmacists are at the far left end, so I'm feeling pretty good.

Same, which is really weird since I've heard a shitload of doom and gloom about automation going into the field
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Sexypwnstar posted...

Super Saiyan 3 Goku posted...

Pharmacists are at the far left end, so I'm feeling pretty good.

Same, which is really weird since I've heard a shitload of doom and gloom about automation going into the field

it's just a bloomberg chart lol

they're not the authority
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Sexypwnstar posted...

Super Saiyan 3 Goku posted...

Pharmacists are at the far left end, so I'm feeling pretty good.

Same, which is really weird since I've heard a shitload of doom and gloom about automation going into the field

Hospital pharmacy I rotated at had a big robot do all the manual drug picking to be sorted and checked by the pharmacist before going to the floors. Also, when it comes to surgeons, robotics are already being used in the OR and have been for some time.

The time will eventually come when all these jobs here will be automated, but I'll be long dead by then.
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Transcendentia posted...

medical assistants don't do work that is overtly complex. it's easy to automate, and places like Japan already have tremendous progress in this area.

surgeons and doctors are so highly paid and hard to train that there's huge profit incentive for their roles to be automated. and technology is finally getting to the point where it's technically possible to automate those roles. so we'll see autonomous surgery and autonomous doctors much sooner than we all realize.

much like how self-driving cars are just a couple of years away even though people think they're really far away.

of course i'd fully expect the government to interfere with progress and try to "save da jerbs!!!" like India's government is doing

Yeah surgeon and cath lab jobs are not safe over the mid term as are many doctor jobs.

And that graph just says truck drivers but its every link in the global shipping chain that will be replaced with automation sooner than most people realize. From loading/unloading cargo containers and trucks to ship and truck navigation to end line delivery of goods those are also prime targets for automation.

And the US government won't be getting in the way of this as it'll be very large companies with deep pockets doing it and we'll be pushing for our tech companies to lead the way whenever possible. Union participation and actual political power in this nation are both low enough to not make much of a difference in the mid and long term of this process.

Transcendentia posted...

medical assistants don't do work that is overtly complex. it's easy to automate, and places like Japan already have tremendous progress in this area.

surgeons and doctors are so highly paid and hard to train that there's huge profit incentive for their roles to be automated. and technology is finally getting to the point where it's technically possible to automate those roles. so we'll see autonomous surgery and autonomous doctors much sooner than we all realize.

much like how self-driving cars are just a couple of years away even though people think they're really far away.

of course i'd fully expect the government to interfere with progress and try to "save da jerbs!!!" like India's government is doing

Automated surgeries? are you serious?

You think everybody in the world has the same anatomy, same presentations, and same disease?

That's not how it works.
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megamanfreakXD posted...

Transcendentia posted...

medical assistants don't do work that is overtly complex. it's easy to automate, and places like Japan already have tremendous progress in this area.

surgeons and doctors are so highly paid and hard to train that there's huge profit incentive for their roles to be automated. and technology is finally getting to the point where it's technically possible to automate those roles. so we'll see autonomous surgery and autonomous doctors much sooner than we all realize.

much like how self-driving cars are just a couple of years away even though people think they're really far away.

of course i'd fully expect the government to interfere with progress and try to "save da jerbs!!!" like India's government is doing

Automated surgeries? are you serious?

You think everybody in the world has the same anatomy?

does every city in the world have the same roads?

machines will operate based on principles, not rote memorization
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Transcendentia posted...

megamanfreakXD posted...

Transcendentia posted...

medical assistants don't do work that is overtly complex. it's easy to automate, and places like Japan already have tremendous progress in this area.

surgeons and doctors are so highly paid and hard to train that there's huge profit incentive for their roles to be automated. and technology is finally getting to the point where it's technically possible to automate those roles. so we'll see autonomous surgery and autonomous doctors much sooner than we all realize.

much like how self-driving cars are just a couple of years away even though people think they're really far away.

of course i'd fully expect the government to interfere with progress and try to "save da jerbs!!!" like India's government is doing

Automated surgeries? are you serious?

You think everybody in the world has the same anatomy?

does every city in the world have the same roads?

machines will operate based on principles, not rote memorization

The roads are organized in a systemic way such that it can be automated. Disease cannot.
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Although automation will eliminate some jobs, it will also significantly lower the skill floor on other jobs, allowing people to perform at the level of today's trained experts with far less training and experience.
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megamanfreakXD posted...

Transcendentia posted...

megamanfreakXD posted...

Transcendentia posted...

medical assistants don't do work that is overtly complex. it's easy to automate, and places like Japan already have tremendous progress in this area.

surgeons and doctors are so highly paid and hard to train that there's huge profit incentive for their roles to be automated. and technology is finally getting to the point where it's technically possible to automate those roles. so we'll see autonomous surgery and autonomous doctors much sooner than we all realize.

much like how self-driving cars are just a couple of years away even though people think they're really far away.

of course i'd fully expect the government to interfere with progress and try to "save da jerbs!!!" like India's government is doing

Automated surgeries? are you serious?

You think everybody in the world has the same anatomy?

does every city in the world have the same roads?

machines will operate based on principles, not rote memorization

The roads are organized in a systemic way such that it can be automated. Disease cannot.

wrong!

https://www.top500.org/news/watson-proving-better-than-doctors-in-diagnosing-cancer/
http://io9.gizmodo.com/5983991/computers-are-better-at-diagnosing-and-treating-patients-than-doctors
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Transcendentia posted...

megamanfreakXD posted...

Transcendentia posted...

megamanfreakXD posted...

Transcendentia posted...

medical assistants don't do work that is overtly complex. it's easy to automate, and places like Japan already have tremendous progress in this area.

surgeons and doctors are so highly paid and hard to train that there's huge profit incentive for their roles to be automated. and technology is finally getting to the point where it's technically possible to automate those roles. so we'll see autonomous surgery and autonomous doctors much sooner than we all realize.

much like how self-driving cars are just a couple of years away even though people think they're really far away.

of course i'd fully expect the government to interfere with progress and try to "save da jerbs!!!" like India's government is doing

Automated surgeries? are you serious?

You think everybody in the world has the same anatomy?

does every city in the world have the same roads?

machines will operate based on principles, not rote memorization

The roads are organized in a systemic way such that it can be automated. Disease cannot.

wrong!

https://www.top500.org/news/watson-proving-better-than-doctors-in-diagnosing-cancer/
http://io9.gizmodo.com/5983991/computers-are-better-at-diagnosing-and-treating-patients-than-doctors

Medicine isn't only about diagnosing conditions, it includes treatment, long term management catered to an individual patient, which a machine can't do. And I call bullshit on that watson article.
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s0nicfan posted...

Although automation will eliminate some jobs, it will also significantly lower the skill floor on other jobs, allowing people to perform at the level of today's trained experts with far less training and experience.

I'm more inclined to think people will do more like people babysitting or gig jobs because automation will make stuff cheaper, freeing up money for that kind of thing to be viable

Granted gubmint regulations will interfere with that
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megamanfreakXD posted...

Medicine isn't only about diagnosing conditions, it includes treatment, long term management catered to an individual patient, which a machine can't do. And I call bullshit on that watson article.

I'm not sure why you think that they won't be able to do things that professionally trained humans are often so-so at doing. Do you also work in healthcare and are worried about your long term job stability?

I work in OR support and know that my job will be done by machines someday unless human society collapses before that time, thats the way we are currently going. The hospital I work at is part of a big medical corporation that will totally ditch doctors/nurses/techs of all kinds when it is economical to do so for the huge boost in profits that it will bring. Business is business and in this country healthcare is a business.

He is right that ideally healthcare would be about more than narrow fixes for particular conditions, but we don't incentivize curing people so much as treating them
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Considering my training is in Journalism and History, I'm probably pretty safe.

That being said, automation creates a lot of jobs too that will probably balance things out in the long run.

Balrog0 posted...

http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/high_school_and_beyond/Automation_jobs_Bloomberg.PNG

I told you medical assistants and home health aides were gonna get automated way before doctors @Transcendentia

graph is a bunch of horsecrap. Programmers are waaaay to far to the right, and lawyers which are very far to the left are already being automated out by software.
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Balrog0 posted...

s0nicfan posted...

Although automation will eliminate some jobs, it will also significantly lower the skill floor on other jobs, allowing people to perform at the level of today's trained experts with far less training and experience.

I'm more inclined to think people will do more like people babysitting or gig jobs because automation will make stuff cheaper, freeing up money for that kind of thing to be viable

Granted gubmint regulations will interfere with that

You two are only thinking about people that will still have employment and wages and not the effects of more of humanity being completely superfluous to the system and without value to it besides the private prisons and similar sectors.

Stuff will only be cheaper until human staffed sweatshops have been mostly put out of business, try thinking a little longer term to see why many don't like where this process will probably take humanity in out current profits-are-everything system where wealth and power are continually concentrating into fewer and fewer hands.

ChromaticAngel posted...

Balrog0 posted...

http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/high_school_and_beyond/Automation_jobs_Bloomberg.PNG

I told you medical assistants and home health aides were gonna get automated way before doctors @Transcendentia

graph is a bunch of horsecrap. Programmers are waaaay to far to the right, and lawyers which are very far to the left are already being automated out by software.

My understanding is that legal assistants are being replaced, not lawyers, could be wrong though. Link? Id look it up but I'm on mobile
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Balrog0 posted...

My understanding is that legal assistants are being replaced, not lawyers, could be wrong though. Link? Id look it up but I'm on mobile

Here is what I like to call "the beginning"

https://venturebeat.com/2016/06/27/donotpay-traffic-lawyer-bot/
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NYmasajista posted...

Balrog0 posted...

s0nicfan posted...

Although automation will eliminate some jobs, it will also significantly lower the skill floor on other jobs, allowing people to perform at the level of today's trained experts with far less training and experience.

I'm more inclined to think people will do more like people babysitting or gig jobs because automation will make stuff cheaper, freeing up money for that kind of thing to be viable

Granted gubmint regulations will interfere with that

You two are only thinking about people that will still have employment and wages and not the effects of more of humanity being completely superfluous to the system and without value to it besides the private prisons and similar sectors.

Stuff will only be cheaper until human staffed sweatshops have been mostly put out of business, try thinking a little longer term to see why many don't like where this process will probably take humanity in out current profits-are-everything system where wealth and power are continually concentrating into fewer and fewer hands.

Naw, I'm specifically saying the idea of wages and jobs as we know them are going to go away. I'm further saying that the standard of living will be such that stuff that's usually been undervalued, like care work, will become relatively more lucrative to do for profit.

But yes I'm aware of the potential downsides if we don't have some kind of public response.
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Good. The more jobs they take, the better.
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megamanfreakXD posted...

Medicine isn't only about diagnosing conditions, it includes treatment, long term management catered to an individual patient, which a machine can't do. And I call bulls*** on that watson article.

I think you are underestimating what machines can do via even supervised machine learning.
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ChromaticAngel posted...

Balrog0 posted...

My understanding is that legal assistants are being replaced, not lawyers, could be wrong though. Link? Id look it up but I'm on mobile

Here is what I like to call "the beginning"

https://venturebeat.com/2016/06/27/donotpay-traffic-lawyer-bot/

Don't they just fill out forms for you at this point? I think that's more likely to help actual lawyers but idk
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ChromaticAngel posted...

Balrog0 posted...

http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/high_school_and_beyond/Automation_jobs_Bloomberg.PNG

I told you medical assistants and home health aides were gonna get automated way before doctors @Transcendentia

graph is a bunch of horsecrap. Programmers are waaaay to far to the right, and lawyers which are very far to the left are already being automated out by software.

umm
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Balrog0 posted...

NYmasajista posted...

Balrog0 posted...

s0nicfan posted...

Although automation will eliminate some jobs, it will also significantly lower the skill floor on other jobs, allowing people to perform at the level of today's trained experts with far less training and experience.

I'm more inclined to think people will do more like people babysitting or gig jobs because automation will make stuff cheaper, freeing up money for that kind of thing to be viable

Granted gubmint regulations will interfere with that

You two are only thinking about people that will still have employment and wages and not the effects of more of humanity being completely superfluous to the system and without value to it besides the private prisons and similar sectors.

Stuff will only be cheaper until human staffed sweatshops have been mostly put out of business, try thinking a little longer term to see why many don't like where this process will probably take humanity in out current profits-are-everything system where wealth and power are continually concentrating into fewer and fewer hands.

Naw, I'm specifically saying the idea of wages and jobs as we know them are going to go away. I'm further saying that the standard of living will be such that stuff that's usually been undervalued, like care work, will become relatively more lucrative to do for profit.

But yes I'm aware of the potential downsides if we don't have some kind of public response.

public response = universal basic income

as stuff gets automated, it'll get cheaper and cheaper. which means we will need just a small income in order to maintain our standard of living.
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Balrog0 posted...

ChromaticAngel posted...

Balrog0 posted...

My understanding is that legal assistants are being replaced, not lawyers, could be wrong though. Link? Id look it up but I'm on mobile

Here is what I like to call "the beginning"

https://venturebeat.com/2016/06/27/donotpay-traffic-lawyer-bot/

Don't they just fill out forms for you at this point? I think that's more likely to help actual lawyers but idk

Software that can assist an untrained layman with defeating a traffic ticket in court is enough to count as a basic lawyer replacement in my opinion. The majority of people who got those tickets likely would not have even known to contest, and would not have been able to win if they did.

The fact is, a computer can search through billions of lines of legal code in a matter of minutes to assist with getting people off the hook for whatever bullshit. The biggest problem with the average citizen in court is ignorance of courtroom etiquette and simply not knowing where to even start attacking a case. Software can assist real time with the former and outright provide arguments for the latter.
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I'm management of a bank branch and you know who, in the entire company, has the highest credit card cross-sales? Some automatic banking kiosk in Minnesota.
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Transcendentia posted...

surgeons and doctors are so highly paid and hard to train that there's huge profit incentive for their roles to be automated. and technology is finally getting to the point where it's technically possible to automate those roles. so we'll see autonomous surgery and autonomous doctors much sooner than we all realize.

Doubt it. People always talk about deep learning AI with regards to things like radiology. Keeping up with some of the articles, even the simplest modality in radiology, a simple chest x-ray, has a sensitive and specificity that is pretty atrocious with these AI machines.

See, it's the combination of those two statistical variables, sensitivity AND specificity that's the really tricky part with automation. The more sensitive you make your machine, the less specific it becomes, and vice versa.

I could make a machine that has "100% accuracy in diagnosing all types of cancer"! It just gives everyone a cancer diagnosis and my specificity is atrocious (mostly false positives).

So when you factor in modalities that are even more complicated than a chest x-ray, we're still a ways away. I haven't even entered the whole liability aspect. The first nodule or pneumothorax that goes undiagnosed by the machine is gonna get sued like crazy.

So most likely, the technology will be used as an adjunct, but physicians will always double check the machine's work. EKG machines already give predictions and diagnoses, but they're wrong about half the time and can't factor in context (which is key). Would you trust a machine that had a coin flip chance at determining whether or not you're having a heart attack? How accurate does the machine need to be before it's acceptable if you were the patient?

In other industries, making mistakes is a bit more acceptable. When a machine's error is the difference between life and death, there is a Grand Canyon's worth of a distance the technology needs to cross before it's widely implemented like people say.

I don't doubt the technology is getting impressive. But TC's image rings true with what I've been following. Doctors and surgeons won't be replaced for a while. A lot of other industries will go by the wayside much sooner. Sure, the AI engineers and technicians will out live us. No arguments there.
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Transcendentia posted...

public response = universal basic income

as stuff gets automated, it'll get cheaper and cheaper. which means we will need just a small income in order to maintain our standard of living.

That is definitely one way that this can go and would be the better one for at least 85% of the human race.

They took our jobs
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ChromaticAngel posted...

Balrog0 posted...

ChromaticAngel posted...

Balrog0 posted...

My understanding is that legal assistants are being replaced, not lawyers, could be wrong though. Link? Id look it up but I'm on mobile

Here is what I like to call "the beginning"

https://venturebeat.com/2016/06/27/donotpay-traffic-lawyer-bot/

Don't they just fill out forms for you at this point? I think that's more likely to help actual lawyers but idk

Software that can assist an untrained layman with defeating a traffic ticket in court is enough to count as a basic lawyer replacement in my opinion. The majority of people who got those tickets likely would not have even known to contest, and would not have been able to win if they did.

The fact is, a computer can search through billions of lines of legal code in a matter of minutes to assist with getting people off the hook for whatever bullshit. The biggest problem with the average citizen in court is ignorance of courtroom etiquette and simply not knowing where to even start attacking a case. Software can assist real time with the former and outright provide arguments for the latter.

I. think the key is these people wouldn't hire lawyers anyways. Seems good for the average person, but not necessarily bad for lawyers. Jmo though
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Soviet_Poland posted...

I don't doubt the technology is getting impressive. But TC's image rings true with what I've been following. Doctors and surgeons won't be replaced for a while.

Once again, disagree.

AI software has lately been more accurate at diagnosis than real doctors.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/04/self-taught-artificial-intelligence-beats-doctors-predicting-heart-attacks

(second source)
http://spectrum.ieee.org/the-human-os/biomedical/diagnostics/ai-predicts-heart-attacks-more-accurately-than-standard-doctor-method

It's happening, whether you like it or not. You will be much better off if you fight for things now that will make life better when it finally happens then you would if you be 1) trying to fight against it, or 2) saying that it won't happen really loudly because it's happening.
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ChromaticAngel posted...

Soviet_Poland posted...

I don't doubt the technology is getting impressive. But TC's image rings true with what I've been following. Doctors and surgeons won't be replaced for a while.

Once again, disagree.

AI software has lately been more accurate at diagnosis than real doctors.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/04/self-taught-artificial-intelligence-beats-doctors-predicting-heart-attacks

(second source)
http://spectrum.ieee.org/the-human-os/biomedical/diagnostics/ai-predicts-heart-attacks-more-accurately-than-standard-doctor-method

It's happening, whether you like it or not. You will be much better off if you fight for things now that will make life better when it finally happens then you would if you be 1) trying to fight against it, or 2) saying that it won't happen really loudly because it's happening.

Great, less arrogant and obnoxious doctors
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fenderbender321 posted...

But also, that hasn't decreased the demand for lawyers really.

The demand for Fast Food cashier monkeys also hasn't decreased despite obvious signs that it's going to be the first one to go.

I mean, maybe most people got the idea in their head that this is going to be some kind of slow, gradual thing, but I personally feel we're going to wake up and read about how McDonald's just fired 100,000 cashiers because of machines, and then a year later they've got nothing but 1 or 2 security guards for a store and that's it.

And even those will be replaced by robocop or some shit eventually.
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ChromaticAngel posted...

Soviet_Poland posted...

I don't doubt the technology is getting impressive. But TC's image rings true with what I've been following. Doctors and surgeons won't be replaced for a while.

Once again, disagree.

AI software has lately been more accurate at diagnosis than real doctors.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/04/self-taught-artificial-intelligence-beats-doctors-predicting-heart-attacks

(second source)
http://spectrum.ieee.org/the-human-os/biomedical/diagnostics/ai-predicts-heart-attacks-more-accurately-than-standard-doctor-method

It's happening, whether you like it or not. You will be much better off if you fight for things now that will make life better when it finally happens then you would if you be 1) trying to fight against it, or 2) saying that it won't happen really loudly because it's happening.

That tech has been around since the late 80's. And yet almost 30 years later "it's happening".

There's more to the job than crunching symptoms against a database and outputting some percentages.
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CapnMuffin posted...

That tech has been around since the late 80's. And yet almost 30 years later "it's happening".

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ChromaticAngel posted...

Once again, disagree.

AI software has lately been more accurate at diagnosis than real doctors.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/04/self-taught-artificial-intelligence-beats-doctors-predicting-heart-attacks

(second source)
http://spectrum.ieee.org/the-human-os/biomedical/diagnostics/ai-predicts-heart-attacks-more-accurately-than-standard-doctor-method

It's happening, whether you like it or not. You will be much better off if you fight for things now that will make life better when it finally happens then you would if you be 1) trying to fight against it, or 2) saying that it won't happen really loudly because it's happening.

1) The articles mentioned the role of AI machines as an adjunct (i.e. doctor's double checking the work), which is what I mentioned in my post. I didn't say the machines won't be used. I'm saying fully replacing doctors is a looong way away.

2) These studies are done in not very realistic practice scenarios. How do the studies account for patient noncompliance? Poor historianship? Like I said, these machines are sensitive in their stratification for things like CVD risk, identifying individuals who would otherwise not have been considered high risk, but now that decreases the specificity of your findings. Where is the longitudinal study or systematic review of a patient population placed on statins not previously identified as not high risk by AHA criteria from these machines compared to traditional management? Do these individuals have a higher risk for statin-induced myopathy? Rhabdomyelitis? Sure, you prevented the heart attack, but a larger proportion of people suffer kidney injury, but since the study in question was measuring cardiovascular related incidents, its no problem right?

Diagnosis is one side of the coin. Does AI help improve outcomes though? Where is the study of machines seeing patients and patients actually taking the machine's recommendations? Compare them to human interaction. You can't force a patient to take a statin, so the machine might recognize who is at risk that otherwise wouldn't have been identified, but the human element of patient care is pretty difficult to overcome. Unless you're planning on shoving those pills down a patient's throat without permission lol.

Sure, these machines can take things like patient noncompliance into account and through churning "Big data" find patterns a human mind wouldn't have picked up on. I don't doubt that would improve outcomes. But from the sounds of it, the machines will be used as an adjunct to a physician, not a complete replacement.
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ChromaticAngel posted...

fenderbender321 posted...

But also, that hasn't decreased the demand for lawyers really.

The demand for Fast Food cashier monkeys also hasn't decreased despite obvious signs that it's going to be the first one to go.

I mean, maybe most people got the idea in their head that this is going to be some kind of slow, gradual thing, but I personally feel we're going to wake up and read about how McDonald's just fired 100,000 cashiers because of machines, and then a year later they've got nothing but 1 or 2 security guards for a store and that's it.

And even those will be replaced by robocop or some shit eventually.

Yeah that's crazy but I guess we'll see who is right soon enough lol

I think it's gonna be more gradual for sure. I'll try to explain why in detail when I'm home but basically there are sunk costs to capital that you have a reason to keep using until it's at least paid for itself. Since big companies like McDonald's are fairly decentralized with respwxt to who finances. and profits from which particular stores, it's gonna be in waves imo
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