Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1271

(+) Yeah! (+)

GranzonEx posted...

guys what about CT as the #2 game on the site

It still might be. I honestly find it impressive that it's winning this match with zero support, especially when we've already gotten some evidence that depth really matters. 1987 gave us four "best ever" caliber series - it's no joke at all.
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NowItsAngeTime posted...

Ulti eventually likes to make pics for everything ifbhe has time

I wouldnt mind making oics for everything I guess

You're doing a great job with the ones you've shown us so far, so please keep it up!

Just be a doll and save Silent Hill 2 for me. =)
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GranzonEx posted...

guys what about CT as the #2 game on the site

It is
I don't know why so many people here underestimate it - it's not weak, it's 1987 that is actually pretty decent
And 1985 wasn't that weak either - it had the original SMB

2001 is a beast though
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Didn't expect 1987 to be doing this well...good show.

So nobody takes Brawl > Melee in a rematch now, right? What about if Brawl faced SSB4 though? Years don't say much for individual games, but 2001 quintupled 2014 while it's only doubling 2008. Then again, this poll happened...

https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6235-which-is-best-all-time-super-smash-bros-game

...though I wonder how much support Brawl gets from removing Melee/SSB. I'm taking SSB4, but I don't know if it would be a big win or not.
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GranzonEx posted...

guys what about CT as the #2 game on the site

Ulti said we were all idiots for not taking 95 to crush 2001 :(
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this might be close. CT lost the last hour.

er, 1995, sorry
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I think Smash 4 wins easily. It seems that very few people who've played both prefer Brawl. Smash 4 has the best roster in fighting game history, better online, better mechanics, HD visuals - the works. The only thing Brawl has (had) is the hype which died years ago, and Snake.

Melee actually HAD the fanatical, super motivated fanbase, and Brawl still won when the finally matched up. Brawl has no such fanbase to keep it afloat against the newer Smash game.
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I'm not sold on Smash 4. Brawl came out on the most popular console in the world. Smash 4 was kind of an afterthought, hype-free and on a platform few played. look at Galaxy 2 - that's basically the equivalent of the Wii U.

put the three of them in a match and Brawl gets squeezed, but one on one we might have Brawl win.

now, if we get a Switch game with a lot of hype around it, maybe we get that clear #2.
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CT's top lead has been around 500 (it's held that level for over two hours). That's roughly equivalent to a lead of, what, 2-3k with our old votals? Zelda CAN reverse that, but I would think you'd need a newer Zelda game and an adversary less beloved than CT.
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I don't think 1995 is in any danger, sans outside interference. The lead has been relatively stable for the past few hours, and trend shifts aren't that significant anymore.
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where's the Cronologist when we need him
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And what do Crono/Vincent trends suggest?
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Crono/Vincent 2007 says CT wins with around 51.4%. The scary one is Zelda 1/Mario 1, I'm not sure I want to look at how much percentage Zelda gained with the ASV that day. Let's just agree that the ASV is dead.
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well that's that! I'm satisfied
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

GranzonEx posted...

guys what about CT as the #2 game on the site

It still might be. I honestly find it impressive that it's winning this match with zero support, especially when we've already gotten some evidence that depth really matters. 1987 gave us four "best ever" caliber series - it's no joke at all.

I would take CT 1 v 1 over everything else on this site. This is not 1 v 1.
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Three straight cuts (!!) of 5, 4, and 5 votes.

The votals look no sadder than when you're actually paying attention to a possible comeback. 1987's largest cut all day has been 13.
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Was there ever any evidence that CT is stronger than Pokemon RBY?
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the bracket vote early pretty much sealed the deal here. it's the only difference in the match.
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That Breath of the Wild day-vote's kicking into high gear...!
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Mac Arrowny posted...

Was there ever any evidence that CT is stronger than Pokemon RBY?

Nothing direct, but CT's performance in the later rounds of the 2015 contest were unexpected and godly. It beat FFX with 65.5%, a percentage that FFVII would struggle to duplicate even with SFF. For comparative purposes, Ocarina beat SotN - a game assuredly weaker than FFX - with 68%. Chrono Trigger was also headed toward a likely 60%+ win against Melee before the rallies.

Those two performances really emboldened people to go bullish on CT's strength.

As for RBY, its last contest (the first one where it was in 1v1 matches) was really weird since it got caught up in the Undertale currents. I think the only "untainted" match it had was against Tetris. It scored a strong 68%, but most people would take CT's 65% on FFX any day.
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3 cuts followed by 3 gains, and the lead is 4 votes below where it was 30 minutes ago. Crisis averted....I think.
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Barriers activated!
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In our heyday we got as many votes as we have now in the first hour or so. Even last contest matches well pulling in 50k from Gamefaqs. This is really sad.
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LoZ needs around 5.5 votes per update (lol) to pull those out. It hasn't been anywhere near that consistent and votals are actually a hair below yesterday's, so things look safe for 1995.

It will be marching to slaughter, but at least it's getting its full rotation of notable games next round.
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What's the vote totals so far this contest? Kinda curious to see how my tiebreaker fares so far in case I get really lucky and 2000 kicks ass.
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Not_Wylvane posted...

What's the vote totals so far this contest? Kinda curious to see how my tiebreaker fares so far in case I get really lucky and 2000 kicks ass.

Assuming nothing changes it should end up being 600k ish (probably a bit lower)
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Mac Arrowny posted...

Was there ever any evidence that CT is stronger than Pokemon RBY?

Pokemon RBY wasn't too far ahead of SMB3 during the low level Undertale rally portion of the match.
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These are the worst vote totals of any contest on this site right?

By far
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Not_Wylvane posted...

What's the vote totals so far this contest? Kinda curious to see how my tiebreaker fares so far in case I get really lucky and 2000 kicks ass.

Assuming nothing changes it should end up being 600k ish (probably a bit lower)

Damn, and here I was thinking my rad prediction of 694200 was too low.
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596,891 tiebreaker looking good

too bad my bracket sucks
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Aren't the finals way more hyped, like we can expect at least double the normal amount of votes? I think it's safe to say votes will reach 900,000.

Any six random Round 1 matches from the female side of the 2006 Character Battle will end up outdrawing this entire contest.
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The problem is with these reduced votals, Gamefaqs strength hardly even matters anymore. SSBM had to bring in something like 20k external votes to beat CT, which isn't that easy. Nowadays reversing a 63-37 might take 8k external votes or less. What was an exciting match last contest would now be CT losing its lead about 20 minutes after the rally started and getting buried 1000+ votes under within an hour.
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Linkzcap posted...

Aren't the finals way more hyped, like we can expect at least double the normal amount of votes? I think it's safe to say votes will reach 900,000.

Impossible at this point, barring massive rallies. If we average 17,000 per match (it's been a little less), we get 595,000 total votes for the contest. The only remaining entrant with real rally potential is 2001, and it probably won't need rallies to reach the final (or at least the semifinal). Even if it does get rallied against 1998 in the final... that's the last match. Realistically, I'd say our ceiling at this point is 700k.
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Also, is the poll linking to POTD instead of this board for other people, or just me?
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It links to PotD if you go to the individual match page, but links to B8 from the two match page.
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Ah, I was kind of worried they were trying to kill off this board by starving it of new members.
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Yeah, we wouldn't want Board 8 to be deprived of all of the new posters being brought in by the Best Year Contest!
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red sox 777 posted...

The problem is with these reduced votals, Gamefaqs strength hardly even matters anymore. SSBM had to bring in something like 20k external votes to beat CT, which isn't that easy. Nowadays reversing a 63-37 might take 8k external votes or less. What was an exciting match last contest would now be CT losing its lead about 20 minutes after the rally started and getting buried 1000+ votes under within an hour.

Now the question is: how much of this is gamefaqs shrinking in popularity between 2015 and 2017? And how much is just apathy for years?

And what does this say about a 2018/2019 cb/games/seies contest?

oh god there has been a revolt!
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ZeldaTPLink posted...

red sox 777 posted...

The problem is with these reduced votals, Gamefaqs strength hardly even matters anymore. SSBM had to bring in something like 20k external votes to beat CT, which isn't that easy. Nowadays reversing a 63-37 might take 8k external votes or less. What was an exciting match last contest would now be CT losing its lead about 20 minutes after the rally started and getting buried 1000+ votes under within an hour.

Now the question is: how much of this is gamefaqs shrinking in popularity between 2015 and 2017? And how much is just apathy for years?

And what does this say about a 2018/2019 cb/games/seies contest?

Allen has repeatedly claimed that GameFAQs is more popular than ever in term of unique visitors each months, it's just that people don't visit the homepage and don't care about the poll anymore.
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abdou posted...

ZeldaTPLink posted...

red sox 777 posted...

The problem is with these reduced votals, Gamefaqs strength hardly even matters anymore. SSBM had to bring in something like 20k external votes to beat CT, which isn't that easy. Nowadays reversing a 63-37 might take 8k external votes or less. What was an exciting match last contest would now be CT losing its lead about 20 minutes after the rally started and getting buried 1000+ votes under within an hour.

Now the question is: how much of this is gamefaqs shrinking in popularity between 2015 and 2017? And how much is just apathy for years?

And what does this say about a 2018/2019 cb/games/seies contest?

Allen has repeatedly claimed that GameFAQs is more popular than ever in term of unique visitors each months, it's just that people don't visit the homepage and don't care about the poll anymore.

I can believe this, as google searches about game stuff tends to take me straight to game boards or FAQs. Going to the Home Page is pointless.
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And of course, in 2006, a 63/37 match on Gamefaqs would have laughed a rally the size of SSBM's against CT. As in, the rally would not have won a single update.

I am very curious as to how Link v. L-Block 1v1 would have gone at the end of the 2007 contest.
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Man I don't have 01 > 95 but I have 02 > 94

My logic was not consistent
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LoZ just had a 64% update.........where it cut all of 14 votes. The variance by update is so huge with these low votals.
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We all know what the top five games are for 1994 (bolded below). Since it looks like we'll get eight pictures in R3, which other three games do you guys think would be strongest?

Top 5
Super Metroid
Final Fantasy VI
Mega Man X
Donkey Kong Country
Sonic 3 & Knuckles

Pick 3
Killer Instinct
Tekken
Earthworm Jim
Doom II
Warcraft

My guess is KI, Jim, and the original Warcraft for that "series respect" vote which may or may not exist.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

We all know what the top five games are for 1994 (bolded below). Since it looks like we'll get eight pictures in R3, which other three games do you guys think would be strongest?

Top 5
Super Metroid
Final Fantasy VI
Mega Man X
Donkey Kong Country
Sonic 3 & Knuckles

Pick 3
Killer Instinct
Tekken
Earthworm Jim
Doom II
Warcraft

My guess is KI, Jim, and the original Warcraft for that "series respect" vote which may or may not exist.

If we are indeed getting 8 games, it may simply come down to who submits what, really.
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Dat Fulgore cool factor
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