Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1268

(+) Yeah! (+)

my fast bracket goes down today. probably won't return either.
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Match VII – Round 1 – 2001 vs. 2014

Notable Releases – Adjusted X-Stats (Year)

2001
Games
Halo: Combat Evolved – 19.43% (2015)
Final Fantasy X – 35.94% (2015)
Super Smash Bros. Melee – 38.28% (2015)
Grand Theft Auto III – 31.97% (2010)

Platforms
Game Boy Advance
Gamecube
Xbox

2014
Games
Super Smash Bros. for 3DS/Wii U – 30.96% (2015)
Destiny – 12.76% (2015)
Dark Souls II
Bayonetta 2 – 17.72% (2015)

Platforms
None

Analysis

How did 3/4 of the years containing a Super Smash Bros. game ended up in the same four-pack? This is probably the worst case scenario match for 2014. The year is pretty much Smash 4 and not much else. The adjusted x-stats values speak for themselves though maybe Shovel Knight would have been a nice option.

According to the gurus 2001 is the favourite to make the final. While it doesn’t have the strongest game it does have strong games from different bases. Whether it makes the final is yet to be seen, though the performance from 1987 does inspire me to believe that diversity will matter greatly here.

If Melee could pull off some SFF against Smash 4 we could see 2001 easily break 80% and even if it doesn’t it should be well into the 70s. Unlike Brawl Smash 4 does bring in fans from the competitive side and while they do love the game I feel they will disproportionally favour Melee if it comes down to it. Smash 4 did get a bit lucky and is placed higher in the picture rotation order than Melee so maybe Smash fans will vote before noticing Melee though I doubt it will be a huge factor.

charmander6000’s Bracket: 2001 > 2014

charmander6000’s Prediction: 2001 wins, 81.34% - 18.66%
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Match VIII – Round 1 – 2008 vs. 2009

Notable Releases – Adjusted X-Stats (Year)

2008
Games
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots – 28.26% (2015)
Fallout 3 – 34.01% (2015)
Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 42.24% (2010)
Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4 – 25.16% (2015)

Platforms
None

2009
Games
Uncharted 2: Among Thieves – 18.90% (2015)
Minecraft – 16.82% (2015)
Street Fighter IV – 25.82% (2010)
Batman: Arkham Asylum – 31.73% (2010)

Platforms
None

Analysis

2009 had a decent performance in the wildcard round though just because you destroyed fodder doesn’t mean you are strong. You could spin this to be a good performance by keeping 1978 and 1979’s performance in the vote-ins constant which would lead to 2009 getting 43.21% against 2005. Of course using the vote-in, likely filled with SFF may not be the best idea and regardless I’d probably take 2008 over 2005 in a close match.

I consider 2008 to be the last great year of gaming for GameFAQs. Sure there may have been a few games that GameFAQs liked since then, but no year since then has been able to put together a group this large of GameFAQs approved games. The biggest wildcard for the year will be Brawl’s strength. The game missed out in 2015 likely due to fans jumping ship to Smash 4, but that doesn’t mean people have forgotten about the game. I’d probably take Melee over Brawl in a rematch, but I don’t see the game dropping significantly in strength.

Even in a worst case scenario I don’t see 2008 losing to 2009. It’s a shame 2008 was given such a predictable path. The year could have caused a lot of discussion considering what happened to their top games in 2015 (Brawl missed out, MGS4 is clearly weaker now and Fallout 3 was fed to Undertale).

charmander6000’s Bracket: 2008 > 2009

charmander6000’s Prediction: 2008 wins, 65.85% - 34.15%
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I feel like something unusual is going to happen tonight. just not sure what
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I wonder what the prediction percentage for 1985/1987 will be.
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I could see 2009 keeping things surprisingly close if Brawl has really fallen off a cliff
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Eh, I think the people who liked Brawl in 2010 still like it enough to vote for it, even if it has been mostly obsoleted by Smash 4. I'd worry about 2008 a little if it were up against 2014 or something, but even then, 2014 is a barren wasteland aside from Smash 4, so it probably wouldn't matter much.
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I'm sooner to expect 2008 to demolish 2009 than it be close.
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charmander6000 posted...

If Melee could pull off some SFF against Smash 4 we could see 2001 easily break 80% and even if it doesn’t it should be well into the 70s. Unlike Brawl Smash 4 does bring in fans from the competitive side and while they do love the game I feel they will disproportionally favour Melee if it comes down to it. Smash 4 did get a bit lucky and is placed higher in the picture rotation order than Melee so maybe Smash fans will vote before noticing Melee though I doubt it will be a huge factor.

Halo 1 is the first game to show up in the picture rotation order for 2001 after the first picture showing the year. This is an important thing to keep an eye on, as it could lead to 2001 having a terrible board vote if early voters are being influenced by the order of the pictures.
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SSB4 is clearly weaker than SSBM, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will roll over and die.

https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6235-which-is-best-all-time-super-smash-bros-game

I suspect it will be able to resist SFF to some extent. SSB4 also has slot one while SSBM will show up to the party late.
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I wonder how many percentage of perfect brackets will be left after this match.

I'm guessing 56%
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should be way less

more like 35%
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I'm guessing mid 40s. maybe 44-45%. That would mean 1 in 3 brackets got today wrong, which sounds about right.
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Despite the board hyping this match 4/5 gurus went with 1987, my guess is 53%.
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transience posted...

I'm sooner to expect 2008 to demolish 2009 than it be close.

Agreed. I have been long expecting 2009 to be one of the weakest years in the contest -- CoD:MW2 won GotY and there's no respectable Nintendo rep -- plus 2008 was a big-ass year at the time. It shouldn't be as big now as it was then, but I expect a lot of people to remember it was big.

Really expecting a big win for 2008, and I wish 1981 had a shot at 2009 to test the upset in the wildcard round (wouldn't have taken it, but it would have been fun to ponder).
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68% had 1987. 45% perfects left.
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quick, 2009 or 2014
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also uhhhh should 2008 be beating 2009 as badly as 2001 is beating 2014

that seems more impressive
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aw darn, there goes that dream
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dem bracket votes
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Unsurprisingly 2009 has a terrible board vote
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yeah, I pretty strongly believe that brackets determine everything in the opening minutes. it's too bad there isn't any big gap between the bracket fave and the stronger year so far.
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I also noticed that 1986's picture was changed, before Ultima IV was the last game and now it was Alex Kidd.
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KingBartz posted...

I'm guessing mid 40s. maybe 44-45%. That would mean 1 in 3 brackets got today wrong, which sounds about right.

You're winner!

Dang, 2001 is off to a good start, and I get the feeling it's not going to drop very much...
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2014 (minus Smash 4) vs. 1986

Who wins?
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2014. 1986 is super bad.

but 1995 was also handicapped.
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5 minute X-Stats:

2008 - 50.00%
2009 - 23.26%
1979 - 8.79%
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2014 with maybe 60-65%?
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need those 1973 x-stats
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It's a bit of a stretch (not really), but 2008 vs 2009 is also out first Japan vs Western match, aaaaaaand yeah
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19 people fell off the Top 50. Former first place transcience, former third place LeonhartFour, Stevie3V, Ranticoot, kirbyfan67, Metallia, Jay_Solano, Jerec, Johnbobb, Jlw125, PrinceKaro, Ex-Kefiroth, Tails82, henryhill, MrFirestar, Arguro, GuessMyUserName, jerrygamer2 and Cartyx did not have both 1995 and 1987 winning.
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transience posted...

2014. 1986 is super bad.

but 1995 was also handicapped.

Well Smash 4 is also in the poll, arguably SFF'd, but still there.
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that's still better than a year headlined by Bubble Bobble
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2009 jumped 3%
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darn, 2008 is falling back to earth. I want a competitive round 2! or a competitive anything
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2001 dropped nearly a full percent, too.
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So, based on the huge blowout by 2001, we can finally assume that people do look at more than the first picture listed? Of course, many voters may remember 2001 fondly... if not that, then the sight of Halo could cause a lot of the voters to remember that FFX and Melee were released the same year.
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transience posted...

need those 1973 x-stats

It'd be interesting if Leon included the Vote-In polls when doing x-stats just to see how weak the worst 1970s years really are compared to our strongest years.
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2001 would do very well to stay above 80% here (doubt it does it but we'll see). 2014 is no slouch as far as the most recent years are concerned - I'd take it over anything from that 2012-16 half decade.

Haste_2 posted...

So, based on the huge blowout by 2001, we can finally assume that people do look at more than the first picture listed? Of course, many voters may remember 2001 fondly... if not that, then the sight of Halo could cause a lot of the voters to remember that FFX and Melee were released the same year.

Yeah, I think 2001 is so fondly remembered, that we can throw its bench warmers (MGS2, Silent Hill 2, Devil May Cry, Pikmin) up there next round and it'll still beat 2008 with ease. People know that this is the Melee/FFX/Halo year.
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2008 is currently expected to get 99.86% against 1973
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Yesterday's trend charts:

Time | 1995 | 1986 | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 85.77% | 14.23% | 253 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 89.62% | 10.38% | 1638 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 88.49% | 11.51% | 3493 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 88.62% | 11.38% | 2337 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 89.01% | 10.99% | 4340 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 89.30% | 10.70% | 4159 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 89.50% | 10.50% | 848 | (22:00-24:00)

Time | 1985 | 1987 | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 26.80% | 73.20% | 250 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 25.50% | 74.50% | 1639 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 26.12% | 73.88% | 3518 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 25.23% | 74.77% | 2342 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 25.36% | 74.64% | 4349 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 25.47% | 74.53% | 4173 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 26.56% | 73.44% | 847 | (22:00-24:00)
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LusterSoldier posted...

It'd be interesting if Leon included the Vote-In polls when doing x-stats just to see how weak the worst 1970s years really are compared to our strongest years.

Yeah, I could do that, no problem.
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Well looks like my oracle pick for 2008 may be salvaged. 2001 needs to stop falling now.
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I've gone from being utterly frightened of the match pictures pre-contest to being relatively unconcerned about them. I feel like, as the site has shrunk, we have our most educated audience yet. casuals don't really exist to us anymore.
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2008 will probably finish in the 60s at the rate it's going, which would give us the closest match yet...!
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LusterSoldier posted...

transience posted...

need those 1973 x-stats

It'd be interesting if Leon included the Vote-In polls when doing x-stats just to see how weak the worst 1970s years really are compared to our strongest years.

Agreed, though I'd understand if he waits until the end of the contest to include them all.

(but do keep us posted on '73 in the meanwhile please)
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transience posted...

I've gone from being utterly frightened of the match pictures pre-contest to being relatively unconcerned about them. I feel like, as the site has shrunk, we have our most educated audience yet. casuals don't really exist to us anymore.

Yeah. 2001's performance shows that my fears were unfounded. The voters really are looking at the games that came out during the year and not just the first or second game shown.
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The average person must be perplexed by how much we care about a 1% change in a GameFAQs contest match update.
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Haste_2 posted...

The average person must be perplexed by how much we care about a 1% change in a GameFAQs contest match update.

To that point, 2001 jumps! It's putting everything in the top half on notice.

And yeah, I also stopped caring about picture order. Every voter knows that they rotate now, and I think most will wait to see the whole shabang or at least have some idea of the main releases in a given year. However, I still think picture INCLUSION could be important, especially for non-iconic years (which is almost all of them).
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Tomorrow's pics:

https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/byg/r1/1997.jpg
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/byg/r1/1999.jpg
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/byg/r1/2007.jpg
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/byg/r1/2012.jpg

2007 looks ready to dominate.
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