Board 8 > First impression, fellow perfects: are you tempted by the 1% option?

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XIII_rocks
12/16/11 4:24:00 PM
#1:


The chance for ultimate glory?

Or are you going to chicken out like me with a straight pick? Or 5/10%?

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SBell0105
12/16/11 4:29:00 PM
#2:


Mario

2002
Finals --- Lost to (2) Link, 36796 [37.47%] - 61415 [62.53%]

2007
Contest Quarterfinal --- 3rd place, 32239 [22.24%] - Link, 52795 [36.42%] - Sephiroth, 45633 [31.48%] - Vincent Valentine, 14277 [9.85%]

2008
Contest Semifinal --- 3rd place, 25594 [19.56%] - Link, 50315% [38.45%] - Crono, 33087 [25.28%] - Samus Aran, 21871 [16.71%]

2010
Contest Semifinal --- Lost to (1) Link, 37006 [35.43%] - 67456 [64.57%]

You don't think there is enough information here to make a damn close educated guess?

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transience
12/16/11 4:29:00 PM
#3:


go big or go home

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XIII_rocks
12/16/11 4:32:00 PM
#4:


From: SBell0105 | #002
Mario

2002
Finals --- Lost to (2) Link, 36796 [37.47%] - 61415 [62.53%]

2007
Contest Quarterfinal --- 3rd place, 32239 [22.24%] - Link, 52795 [36.42%] - Sephiroth, 45633 [31.48%] - Vincent Valentine, 14277 [9.85%]

2008
Contest Semifinal --- 3rd place, 25594 [19.56%] - Link, 50315% [38.45%] - Crono, 33087 [25.28%] - Samus Aran, 21871 [16.71%]

2010
Contest Semifinal --- Lost to (1) Link, 37006 [35.43%] - 67456 [64.57%]

You don't think there is enough information here to make a damn close educated guess?


Oh well of course the smart pick is probably to go with something like 56-66%ish but...rivalry factor. >_>

I don't know. I'm not doing particularly well in the oracle and I don't want to put it all on a % pick.

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SBell0105
12/16/11 4:33:00 PM
#5:


Am i correct in saying that before the Final Match all "at-risk" points will become banked points and that is what you are gambling with?

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XIII_rocks
12/16/11 4:39:00 PM
#6:


dunno

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Bigwig_rah
12/16/11 4:43:00 PM
#7:


Pretty sure I'm gonna go 5% and hope that no one who goes 1% gets it right.

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XIII_rocks
12/16/11 4:46:00 PM
#8:


If somebody goes with 1% and gets it right they can literally go around forever on gamefaqs saying "I am the 1%"

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SBell0105
12/16/11 4:53:00 PM
#9:


Maybe this is Marios Year?

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BK_Sheikah00
12/16/11 4:56:00 PM
#10:


Not eligible prizes, fun entry, don't care about Karma. I just might give it a shot.

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-LusterSoldier-
12/16/11 5:05:00 PM
#11:


SBell0105 | Posted 12/16/2011 7:33:46 PM | message detail | quote
Am i correct in saying that before the Final Match all "at-risk" points will become banked points and that is what you are gambling with?


Correct. If you have any remaining at-risk points after the Link/Cloud match is over with, they are automatically banked.

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pyresword
12/16/11 5:14:00 PM
#12:


I'm going for the 10% thing at least.

I really want to go for the 1% thoughm even though it will assuredly be wrong.
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th3l3fty
12/16/11 5:16:00 PM
#13:


not tempted at all

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Xuxon
12/16/11 5:18:00 PM
#14:


so Luster, are you going for 1%? would that beat perfects that take 5% if you're right?
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MoogleKupo141
12/16/11 5:20:00 PM
#15:


I'm leaning toward 5% or going with Cloud

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SBell0105
12/16/11 5:25:00 PM
#16:


From: -LusterSoldier- | #011
Correct. If you have any remaining at-risk points after the Link/Cloud match is over with, they are automatically banked.




thanks lusty.

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-LusterSoldier-
12/16/11 5:26:00 PM
#17:


I'm not perfect in the battle challenge, so a 1% pick might be the only way to potentially finish in the top 10. I had my streak broken up by DK/Ezio in round 1, but that's the only match I have gotten wrong so far. So if the next 2 matches play out as they should, I will have 154000 points to use on the final match. The perfect battlers will all have 195300 points to work with.

So being behind the perfects by about 40000 points, a 5% pick for the perfects would give them 488250 points. If I used a 1% pick with my 154000 points, I could end up with 462000 points, which still wouldn't be enough to put me over the perfect battlers that did a 5% pick.

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Xuxon
12/16/11 5:27:00 PM
#18:


dang, that sucks. what's the point of that system if you can miss the first debatable match and 1% still can't get you victory?
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SBell0105
12/16/11 5:29:00 PM
#19:


well that pretty much means I have no shot in hell.

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Colegreen_c12
12/16/11 5:30:00 PM
#20:


Im thinking of going with 5%
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XIII_rocks
12/16/11 5:54:00 PM
#21:


From: Xuxon | #018
dang, that sucks. what's the point of that system if you can miss the first debatable match and 1% still can't get you victory?


Because the battle bracket is about predicting matches correctly?

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transience
12/16/11 5:59:00 PM
#22:


it's pretty clearly an anti-perfect measure, not something for people behind to try and catch up with. 50 perfects decided by a tiebreaker isn't really a fun idea. it's a nice try by Bacon but I don't like that he dropped this on us three days from the final.

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Pondos
12/16/11 6:04:00 PM
#23:


I don't see why any perfects wouldn't go with 5%. That's a pretty big increment to work with.

I am very tempted by the 1% though.

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Luis_Sera89
12/16/11 6:09:00 PM
#24:


I imagine most of the perfects are prize entrys, so for a karma entry like mine I should be fine going for 5% and perhaps outright win that.

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iGenesis
12/16/11 7:04:00 PM
#25:


If the buckets are fixed by Allen (60-64.99, 65-69.99) I'll go with 10%.

If we can pick our own min&max bounds (ex. 61.19 - 66.19), I'll go with 5%.

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Ngamer64
12/16/11 7:38:00 PM
#26:


Whoever finishes #1 is going to nail the 1% pick, IMO.

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SabrielAbhorsen
12/17/11 2:38:00 AM
#27:


So is there any reason to not risk all of your points regardless of what range you pick? I've been thinking of whether it is a viable strategy, but I don't think it is.

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PartOfYourWorld
12/17/11 2:57:00 AM
#28:


Not at all. The notion of risking 63 consecutive calls on such accuracy is baffling to me. I doubt anyone in the top 60 will make an attempt just because the risk is so insane. Picking every single match right just to end up with zero points, woohoo.

From: Pondos | #023
I don't see why any perfects wouldn't go with 5%. That's a pretty big increment to work with.


Because we are limited to increments of five, meaning we can pick 55-60 or 60-65, but not 58-63. This makes it much tougher, as I believe the general consensus atm is Link beating Mario with right around 60%.

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PartOfYourWorld
12/17/11 3:01:00 AM
#29:


From: iGenesis | #025
If the buckets are fixed by Allen (60-64.99, 65-69.99) I'll go with 10%.

If we can pick our own min&max bounds (ex. 61.19 - 66.19), I'll go with 5%.


Funny, I was thinking that the 10% option is pretty useless this time around. Going by history and even the trends we have seen in this contest, it's pretty unlikely that Link beats Mario with under 55% or over 65%. If you're taking 60-70, it's not much riskier at all to take 60-65.

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__Smurf__
12/17/11 5:33:00 AM
#30:


I can't win prizes so I'm not going to take any gigantic risks, taking the safe straight option will pretty much guarantee I wind up in the top 50. If I were in it for prizes I'd go for the 1%.

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__Smurf__
12/17/11 5:44:00 AM
#31:


From: PartOfYourWorld | #029
Funny, I was thinking that the 10% option is pretty useless this time around. Going by history and even the trends we have seen in this contest, it's pretty unlikely that Link beats Mario with under 55% or over 65%. If you're taking 60-70, it's not much riskier at all to take 60-65.


The most recent result is 64.57%, its pretty risky to put all your points on Link not increasing that by 0.5%. Its hardly unlikely at all that Link could reach 65/66/67.

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Guess how many teens
12/17/11 6:29:00 AM
#32:


Did anyone of the perfects picked the trainers?

Also, when can we use the form to pick for the finals?

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Pondos
12/17/11 6:39:00 PM
#33:


After the semis are over

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Guess how many teens
12/18/11 2:02:00 PM
#34:


Is there a day break or something?

It's 11PM where I'm at and the matches start at 6AM, kinda sucks :).

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LordoftheMorons
12/18/11 2:28:00 PM
#35:


I'm fairly certain at most one or two people will do a 1% pick successfully; 5% is probably the smart choice.

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Winged Supreme
12/19/11 3:43:00 AM
#36:


I'm going with the 1% pick, go big or go home. Who the f*** cares if I end up with 0 points? The difference between a $10/$20 video game voucher (which wouldn't be worth it for me after shipping and crap) versus $250? Yeah, I'm going for it.

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iGenesis
12/19/11 3:48:00 AM
#37:


From: Winged Supreme | #036
I'm going with the 1% pick, go big or go home. Who the f*** cares if I end up with 0 points? The difference between a $10/$20 video game voucher (which wouldn't be worth it for me after shipping and crap) versus $250? Yeah, I'm going for it.


Exactly. Everyone should be picking 1%. Imagine that you bet conservatively to guarantee yourself a GameSpot GameMarket gift certificate. You'll have to get an affidavit notarized in order to receive your prize. In california that's $10 for the notary fee unless you personally know one. $10 notary to receive a $10 prize.

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