Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1005

(+) Yeah! (+)

I can forgive all these stupid not-really-rivalries if we get Frog/Magus beating Crono/Lavos.

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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png
http://i.imgur.com/FII1z.gif

Will Crono hold on?

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

!yawa tsoP

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"Ahem! There is *sand* on my *boot*!"--Kefka
Black Turtle beat me, Yesmar in the Fall 2010 Guru Contest!

Spoilers:

Lavos will kill Crono's chances of winning this poll oh ho ho ho

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http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg

Ok yeah Leon/Ada might charge right by Crono/Lavos, in which case it kinda proves people are taking rivalries into account.

Either that or Crono is an upper midcarder now woo.

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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png
http://i.imgur.com/FII1z.gif

Lavos sucks. I'd guess Crono/Lavos still beats Frog/Magus though, because Crono would break 50% pretty easily in a 3-way with Frog and Magus.

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90s games > 00s games

If CT fans actually take rivalries into account, then they should vote for Frog/Magus because they know it's better.

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http://img.imgcake.com/nio/26leonpngat.png
http://img.imgcake.com/nio/daigohadoupnguj.png

Screw rivalries, my priority is to make Crono do as well as possible, regardless of anything else.

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90s games > 00s games

I think Jim Raynor vs Sarah Kerrigan getting 4th is stronger evidence people are taking rivalries into account than anything here.

Laharl vs Midboss to some extent in previous polls too.

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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Well, then you were doomed from the start because Crono doesn't have a good rival!

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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

The whole rivalries matter thing becomes more manifest in popular things anyways.

Fodder characters will still be fodder, but we should see some surprising results amongst the elite.

If only..........

Mario/Crono would have been perfect. (And screw Mario/Sonic too if it stood in the way!)

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90s games > 00s games

Crono/Ayla are obviously soup-drinking rivals.

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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png
http://i.imgur.com/FII1z.gif

I would've supported Mario/Crono.

Not over Mario/Sonic, but if it had gotten into the contest, you better believe it.

I gotta wonder what the voters would've thought of Mario/Crono considering they haven't had a one-on-one match since 2005 though.

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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

soup-drinking

lol

Crono's greatest rivalry are his vocal chords

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Mario/Crono > Cloud/Sephiroth you'd best believe it!

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90s games > 00s games

Crono/Crono Doll would've been great.

The party heartlessly sacrificed Crono Doll to bring Crono back.

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http://img.imgcake.com/nio/26leonpngat.png
http://img.imgcake.com/nio/daigohadoupnguj.png

Crono's Mom/Cats vs. Captain/CATS would have been the greatest match ever.

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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png
http://i.imgur.com/FII1z.gif

100 vote lead...!

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http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/8718/leonflowchart.png

55.38% 45 minutes in. Normally that would be enough, but with such low votals in a 12-way the variance should be higher, so let's give it a few more updates.

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90s games > 00s games

Good on the CT and RE pairs for killing it. Allowed me to vote for my boys James and Luxor Hotel and Casino Head.

Have we considered the effect a half-sized entrant field might have on vote-ins? Let's assume we get four days of vote-ins. If the top four in each poll advance, that's 16 entrants. I think most people are expecting a 64-entrant field, so is it realistic to think Bacon would let the vote-ins account for a quarter of the field? I wouldn't be surprised if only ~8 total vote-in options make it, or two per day.

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I wouldn't be surprised if it was 16 because I honestly think the low nomination count and the small number of rivalries that don't overlap with each other getting legitimate support means there's not a lot out there.

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or this could be the last poll

Bacon's put FINAL DAY on the last poll the last two times.

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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."

The nomination system on this one was so spotty that I think it's pretty fair to let vote-ins account for a large part of the field. You were forced to only nominate one rival for a character, which leads to serious disadvantages for characters with multiple possible rivals. Since each character can only appear once, that's a bad system. Knowing that Crono can only appear once, I would have nominated Crono/Magus and Crono/Lavos at least.

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90s games > 00s games

I probably expect it to be 12 or 14 entrants that get in from the vote-ins.


Also, 3673 votes at the end of the first hour. This poll has a chance to finish under 40000 today.

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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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Btw, in news that should bring a smile to all your faces, Leon vs. Ada making the vote-ins suggests that Jill vs. Nemesis is snugly in the bracket. STAAAAAAAAAAAARS

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Yoblazer: http://oi52.tinypic.com/ad21i1.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

56.37% at the 1 hour mark. Calling the match.

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90s games > 00s games

More like best news is that Balthier/Cid being in the vote-ins means Squall/Seifer is home free!

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http://i848.photobucket.com/albums/ab48/Leonhart4/Squall.jpg

Crono/Lavos could cause some serious havoc in this bracket, as we're not really sure how strong the top noms (outside of the the Link/Cloud/Mario/Snake shoe-ins) will be.

Dante/Vergil vs. Crono/Lavos
Sora/Riku vs. Crono/Lavos
Ryu/Ken vs. Crono/Lavos
Red/Blue vs. Crono/Lavos

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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Raziel and Kain have gained a good bit of percentage since the bad start, but I doubt they can do well enough to make the field. No idea what makes the field now, has me worrying I won't get to see Seymour after all. =/

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:>

Hard matches. I'd take Crono/Lavos in all of them of course, but if you're looking for something more objective......

Dante/Vergil vs. Crono/Lavos

I think Crono has this pretty safely. Dante/Vergil just aren't that strong, and the rivalry, while good, doesn't feel like it's going to add that many votes.

Sora/Riku vs. Crono/Lavos

Great day/night swings here, but I'd guess Crono beats Sora by enough that adding in Riku and Lavos isn't enough to swing this one. Maybe before last year, but KH looked really bad.

Ryu/Ken vs. Crono/Lavos

I'd be very nervous on this one. Ryu/Ken is iconic, and a better rivalry. Ken probably beats Lavos 1v1 too. Probably would lean towards Ryu/Ken if not for fanboyism actually.

Red/Blue vs. Crono/Lavos

Last year showed Red isn't strong, but this match feels like a proxy for RBY vs. CT, which is not a proxy I want. It might fit The Pokemon Craze vs. The Traditional Majority on Gamefaqs a bit better though, in which case CT is safe.

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90s games > 00s games

Crono/Lavos loses to all four of those easy.

And Snake/Liquid would probably only be on par or slightly stronger than those four mentioned

Snake/Liquid would flatten all of them, except maybe Red/Blue if it catches the full power of RBY.

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90s games > 00s games

From: red sox 777 | #032
a better rivalry

Well, they're all better rivalries. It's a bit unnecessary to even mention this.

Also, Vergil/Lavos were about as close as could be in the Villains Contest X-Stats!

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From: pjbasis | #033
Crono/Lavos loses to all four of those easy.

And Snake/Liquid would probably only be on par or slightly stronger than those four mentioned

Uhhhhh, Snake/Liquid would stomp all of those because Snake is really strong and it's a respected rivalry to boot.

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I was actually thinking that Red/Blue would be the weak link of those, but I could also see it being a dark horse powerhouse.

X/Zero is gonna be a beast.

In other news, looks like Mr. Freeman is struggling to stay ahead of Kerrigan. Ouch.

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Currently Playing - StarCraft: Brood War

He should be fine soon, I think this is right when Starcraft usually falls off a cliff.

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90s games > 00s games

I just noticed that we haven't seen any platform hero/platform villain so far.

Looks like we will have another contest with Crash Bandicoot!

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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Black Turtle > Me

Banjo, yo.

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"Eet's game time..."

crono/lavos is... interesting. i'd have thought crono/magus was more obvious unless magus/frog is in already.

people need to vote raynor/kerrigan obviously

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gg Black Turtle

There was also Earthworm Jim/Not-Psycrow

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Support Bahamut if we ever get another real contest.

Europe breaking out the awesome taste today (Raziel/Kain winning!).

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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ.
(Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)

Wow, that is awesome taste.

^5s fellow Europeans

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http://images.wikia.com/finalfantasy/images/0/0e/Ffx-bahamut.jpg
Support Bahamut if we ever get another real contest.

Whoa, was not expecting that kind of Kain/Raziel support, awesome.

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When you've got a pretty-boy monkey on your back constantly calling you a puppet, you hardly want to seem like you're happy to be used. - DSakaCharanJ

Gordon is in third now huh?
Not bad

Leon/Ada is a decent rivalry, especially in RE4. Hope it gets in.

SBAllen should've just gone with a tag team contest and just say characters must be from the same game.

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BOP Results: http://charmander6000.webs.com/GotD%20BOP.xls
Congratulations to Black Turtle for winning the guru contest.