Board 8 > POLL: Do you think Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election?

(+) Yeah! (+)

Yes.

I also think there's little chance he doesn't.

I also think Palin is the sole reason why McCain lost to him in the first place.

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Ulti:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/06/texas-lukewarm-on-perry-bid.html

"lol"

I know its early and he would actually end up beating him. But he's trailing. In his home state. Which is Texas. Perry has no ****ing shot.

you won't respond

You're actually completely wrong about this. Perry is one of those politicians with widespread party acclaim on the national level, but not as much regard on the state level. This phenomenon is actually pretty common, and to say that this means "Perry has no ****ing shot" is to misunderstand American politics. Ulti's right: were Perry to run, he'd have the best chance to beat Obama out of any of the GOP candidates.

Also, the whole "He's like Bush!" angle is overhyped. Democrats will compare any GOP candidate to W., and Republicans will compare that same candidate to Reagan. It's a wash.

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[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

oops, i meant

Yes

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Yes.

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Yes

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More than likely.

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Yes.

I was leaning no before he got Bin Ladin, but now I say Yes

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Yeah.

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Never brought up the Bush angle. But he's trailing in one of the most conservative states in the country, which also happens to be his home state. The freeper/tea party gang doesn't even love him that much due to him working for Gore in 88. Perry is not a threat. There is only one republican who truely scares me (Hunstman) and he won't get out of the primary.

It will be down to Bachmann, Romeny and Paul by late February, just watch.

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Warning_Crazy
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And just for comparison's sake,
Sarah Palin leads Obama by 2 in Utah. Hunstman leads by 50! Hunstman and Ron Paul are the only two Republicans PPP has polled who lead in their home states (I suspect Cain will lead Georgia when they get around to it, however)

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Warning_Crazy
i am not black turtle as i did not win the guru

So did you just not read what I posted, or what? No, Perry isn't that popular in his home state; frankly, that's rather common, as politicians can alter their image more for people who aren't subjected to the consequences of their policies/legislation. Nationally, he's a serious contender, much more so than Palin and arguably more than Romney (whose religion/flip-flopping hold him back).

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Oh wow, I didn't even catch the second part of your post:

Hunstman leads by 50! Hunstman and Ron Paul are the only two Republicans PPP has polled who lead in their home states (I suspect Cain will lead Georgia when they get around to it, however)

Like, are you serious? Early polling is wholly inaccurate, as it's usually the passionate/crazy voters instead of the moderates. Ron Paul has no chance for 2012. None. We went through this same thing in '08, so if you don't believe it now, you'll see come primary time.

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Any Republican who can't beat Obama in Texas can't beat him nationally. If Texas doesn't like him because of what he's done as governor of Texas, that's not going to help either, because his failures as governor are certainly going to be broadcast to the whole country during the campaign.

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It's not that he's unpopular, it just how unpopular he is. He was barely elected in 10, the best year for Republicans since 1994, maybe even more so.

Plus, according to poling but in Nate Silver's very basic formula (which just adjusts for undecideds), he losses to Obama by 5.9 ( http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/19/is-obama-against-romney-a-toss-up/ ), behind Romney and Paul.

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Warning_Crazy
i am not black turtle as i did not win the guru

Any Republican who can't beat Obama in Texas can't beat him nationally. If Texas doesn't like him because of what he's done as governor of Texas, that's not going to help either, because his failures as governor are certainly going to be broadcast to the whole country during the campaign.

What? He'd win Texas no problem

It's not that he's unpopular, it just how unpopular he is. He was barely elected in 10, the best year for Republicans since 1994, maybe even more so.

Nope. Perry faced off against his strongest contender in years, Bill White, and even still he won by a comfortable margin.

Plus, according to poling but in Nate Silver's very basic formula (which just adjusts for undecideds), he losses to Obama by 5.9 ( http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/19/is-obama-against-romney-a-toss-up/ ), behind Romney and Paul.

Then it's not a very good formula, is it?

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It's more how they do compared to other republicans than versus Obama that is meaningful. Don't lecture me on early polling, I know what it means >> And Paul won't win the primary, he'll just stay in it forever just like last time.

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Warning_Crazy
i am not black turtle as i did not win the guru

He got 55% in Texas, which lagged behind McCain. Obama is stronger than Bill White, and it was a much worse year. Perry sucks.

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Warning_Crazy
i am not black turtle as i did not win the guru

Bumpo.

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He got 55% in Texas, which lagged behind McCain. Obama is stronger than Bill White, and it was a much worse year. Perry sucks.

Agree-to-disagree time, then! I'm telling you, though, that even if you don't like the guy (and despite statewide numbers), Perry would do best out of all potential GOP candidates barring perhaps Romney. He'd lose, of course, but everyone would lose.

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Yes. The Republicans are doing terribly.

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I do think he is one of the strong competitors, but he is for sure below Hunstman/Romney Level.

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Warning_Crazy
i am not black turtle as i did not win the guru

Yes, barring something monumental.

Like the economy collapsing because we failed to raise the debt ceiling.

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Bumpo; 51 votes so far.

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Yes

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Yes.

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Chrono1219

Yes.

In one week, he finished off Osama bin Laden, removed any reasonable doubt about his birth, and made a fool out of Donald Trump. He's got some issues as well, but the Republican party still doesn't seem to have anybody strong enough to compete right now.

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Yep.

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Voting No. I trust the Republicans will nominate someone competent, in which case this election is going to be all about Obama and not about that candidate.

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Bumpo. Could use some more votes.

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i hope not but Yes

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Yes, the GOP field is laughable.

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Yes

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I heard Ron Paul say today that he's voting no on the Boehner debt ceiling bill because he doesn't want to raise the debt ceiling no matter what. This makes me less likely to vote for him in the Republican primary......

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