Current Events > The chance of Trump winning another term is very real

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refmon
07/31/23 7:19:18 PM
#1:


https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/30/politics/trump-second-term-president-election-2024

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ScazarMeltex
07/31/23 7:20:50 PM
#2:


Who do you think is going to show up and vote for Trump that hasn't already?

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Intro2Logic
07/31/23 7:23:18 PM
#3:


ScazarMeltex posted...
Who do you think is going to show up and vote for Trump that hasn't already?
It's more a question of who won't show for Biden that did before

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Ryven
07/31/23 7:24:22 PM
#4:


Okay so enlighten a dumb Canadian on american politics here.......if Trump is found guilty on all these charges that means he can't run for president anymore? Or he can?

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RchHomieQuanChi
07/31/23 7:26:00 PM
#5:


Ryven posted...
Okay so enlighten a dumb Canadian on american politics here.......if Trump is found guilty on all these charges that means he can't run for president anymore? Or he can?

Nope, he can still be President from prison because lolamerica

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TonyKojima
07/31/23 7:26:25 PM
#6:


If he's convicted he won't. But for arguments sake I would then support blue states openly declaring they will refuse to recognize a "president" serving prison time for trying to overthrow an election and stealing and sharing classified material.

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Cheater87
07/31/23 7:27:08 PM
#7:


If Trump wins, democracy is DEAD in the US.

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Notti
08/03/23 7:33:32 AM
#8:


Oh it's a real possibility.

Too many people now think facts are lies.

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hockeybub89
08/03/23 7:36:11 AM
#9:


So a milquetoast geriatric moderate that no one loves is apparently the only person who can beat a fascist moron with 100 felonies to his name. And it's going to be close.

America is so fucked. I am so fucked.

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Sahel
08/03/23 7:36:21 AM
#10:


True, a 1% chance is a chance nonetheless.

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WrkHrdPlayHrdr
08/03/23 8:06:28 AM
#11:


Intro2Logic posted...
It's more a question of who won't show for Biden that did before

EXACTLY. We know Trump will get the same amount of votes as last time. What we need to be absolutely sure about is that Biden gets the same amount of votes as last time. The high voter turnout needs to happen AGAIN and I don't know that it will. I'm still worried a bit. People are less enthusiastic about Biden this time around.

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Zanzenburger
08/03/23 8:26:33 AM
#12:


It looks like the article's main evidence for their claim is this statement:

To put that in perspective, Trump never led in a single national poll that met CNNs standards for publication for the entirety of the 2020 campaign. Biden was up by high single digits in the late summer of 2019. Biden is up by maybe a point in the average of all 2024 polls today.

The problem with this assertion is that the article fails to mention the change in polling methodologies between 2016 and 2023. With several polling groups being extremely left-biased, resulting in some of the snafus in the 2016 election (and to a lesser extent the 2020 election), many of them have corrected themselves to account for the "hidden" Trump support that wasn't being weighed properly. So naturally, polls will have a heavier Republican lean than before.

All this means is that we may see less extreme differences between polls that, say, predict Blue +10 and end up being Red +3 (in theory). I'm not surprised we are seeing closer polls now.

Additionally, as the article states, general election polling right now is meaningless. There is no predictive validity. While we can certainly have a discussion, this feels like clickbait.

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Jagr_68
08/03/23 8:42:00 AM
#13:


>CNN

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ShaneMcComez
08/03/23 8:53:42 AM
#14:


Five words that gives me comfort heading into next year's presidential election: early voting, voting by mail. Democrat voters by far and away take advantage of getting their ballot cast early and Republicans voters are much more likely to wait until Election Day to go vote.

We need to bank in our votes early. Huge turnouts in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia. Even if we're lagging behind turnout expectations in August/September/October. We still have time to energize voters get out and vote before Election Day is upon.

We've seen this movie play out before in recent off-year and Mid-Term elections where we're lagging behind in the early voting turnout in key counties and states. The Democrats send in the big guns (Obama) to these areas, and more often then not turnout improves and either meets or exceeds expectations.

Democrats and the Biden campaign this election cycle have a plethora of tools in the tool bag they can deploy to energize voters across demographics. All thanks to Republicans in general being fascists. I don't doubt in the Biden team finding the right message and strategy to hit it home with voters with what is at stake this election and sitting on your ass is not an option.
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RuneterranSnap
08/03/23 8:56:38 AM
#15:


I say again, anyone who would still vote for Trump should lose their right to vote permanently.

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brestugo
08/03/23 8:58:56 AM
#16:


Sahel posted...
True, a 1% chance is a chance nonetheless.
Anything greater than zero is too high.

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Gritty
08/03/23 8:59:04 AM
#17:


Is he going to presidential from jail?
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bluezero
08/03/23 9:00:31 AM
#18:


Gritty posted...
Is he going to presidential from jail?
He's never going to prison. I say this as someone who really really really wants him to.

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VGAddict90
08/03/23 9:01:56 AM
#19:


Biden should campaign in Texas. Trump only won Texas by 5 points in 2020.
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brestugo
08/03/23 9:04:54 AM
#20:


VGAddict90 posted...
Biden should campaign in Texas. Trump only won Texas by 5 points in 2020.
I'm sure he will. They'll - like everyone else - just screen and vet the people and places they go more carefully there.

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FighterMcWar
08/03/23 9:13:52 AM
#21:


Zanzenburger posted...
It looks like the article's main evidence for their claim is this statement:

To put that in perspective, Trump never led in a single national poll that met CNNs standards for publication for the entirety of the 2020 campaign. Biden was up by high single digits in the late summer of 2019. Biden is up by maybe a point in the average of all 2024 polls today.

The problem with this assertion is that the article fails to mention the change in polling methodologies between 2016 and 2023. With several polling groups being extremely left-biased, resulting in some of the snafus in the 2016 election (and to a lesser extent the 2020 election), many of them have corrected themselves to account for the "hidden" Trump support that wasn't being weighed properly. So naturally, polls will have a heavier Republican lean than before.

All this means is that we may see less extreme differences between polls that, say, predict Blue +10 and end up being Red +3 (in theory). I'm not surprised we are seeing closer polls now.

Additionally, as the article states, general election polling right now is meaningless. There is no predictive validity. While we can certainly have a discussion, this feels like clickbait.
It has also worked the other way. The GOP underperformed polls since correction, a bigger take away is that the polls were not terribly off for most Republicans except for Trump...because Americans are apparently just suckers for big personalities.

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AP3Brain
08/03/23 9:32:57 AM
#22:


Very doubtful but people do have to remember to vote as his cult definitely will
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dummy420
08/03/23 9:35:42 AM
#23:


There was no chance he would win the first time but he did. The thing that gives me hope is the midterms. People didn't forget and turned out to vote in good numbers. Getting them to show back up is far from guaranteed though.

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brestugo
08/03/23 9:43:00 AM
#24:


dummy420 posted...
There was no chance he would win the first time but he did. The thing that gives me hope is the midterms. People didn't forget and turned out to vote in good numbers. Getting them to show back up is far from guaranteed though.
Hopefully, it'll become a habit.

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MrAntisocial
08/05/23 1:57:03 PM
#25:


Cheater87 posted...
If Trump wins, democracy is DEAD in the US.

It's already dead. The oligarchs decide what becomes law and the people decide who gets to rubber stamp those laws

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mach25687
08/05/23 2:01:12 PM
#26:


That pos shit will lose.

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WalkingLobsters
08/05/23 2:02:09 PM
#27:


Imna vote for him

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Ubergeneral3
08/08/23 2:34:34 AM
#28:


here is the thing. I hate trump but I don't like biden either. I was a leftist canidate. People vote for biden because he's not trump. If we keep on doing this nothing will ever change. After donald, it will be the next trump. Its not an election, it's a hostage situation.

I'm not voting for biden. If we keep on voting for mediocre canidates will keep on getting mediocore politics.

Elections aren't the only way to get change.

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AI_TechGam3FAQS
08/08/23 2:35:34 AM
#29:


Interesting

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Doe
08/08/23 2:39:34 AM
#30:


I expect Trump will get a felony conviction before 11/2024 and that will be enough to swing all three elected bodies blue

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Heptade
08/08/23 2:51:45 AM
#31:


Ubergeneral3 posted...
here is the thing. I hate trump but I don't like biden either. I was a leftist canidate. People vote for biden because he's not trump. If we keep on doing this nothing will ever change. After donald, it will be the next trump. Its not an election, it's a hostage situation.

I'm not voting for biden. If we keep on voting for mediocre canidates will keep on getting mediocore politics.

Elections aren't the only way to get change.
You don't want to play that game. I don't like Biden either, but if I were American, I would vote for him without any hesitation. Trump can potentially destroy whatever semblance of democracy you have left. As a matter of fact, he has tried already. You say that "if we keep doing this, nothing will ever change". If Tronald Dump gets what he wants, change will be a almost forgotten dream.

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nexigrams
08/08/23 2:51:51 AM
#32:


Just trying to scare people into, "vote blue no matter who," again lol.

Last poll I saw said half of registered Republicans would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a felony.

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sfcalimari
08/08/23 3:33:13 AM
#33:


Ubergeneral3 posted...
here is the thing. I hate trump but I don't like biden either. I was a leftist canidate. People vote for biden because he's not trump. If we keep on doing this nothing will ever change. After donald, it will be the next trump. Its not an election, it's a hostage situation.

I'm not voting for biden. If we keep on voting for mediocre canidates will keep on getting mediocore politics.

Elections aren't the only way to get change.

Just a reminder of the kind of "yeah but I just don't trust Hillary" mindset that caused us to lose abortion and the supreme court for the next several decades.

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BlockAddition
08/08/23 3:55:33 AM
#34:


Shut up and take my award! Enjoy ad free reddit for 30 days OP it's on me
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Flaming_Fire619
08/08/23 4:25:10 AM
#35:


Ubergeneral3 posted...
here is the thing. I hate trump but I don't like biden either. I was a leftist canidate. People vote for biden because he's not trump. If we keep on doing this nothing will ever change. After donald, it will be the next trump. Its not an election, it's a hostage situation.

I'm not voting for biden. If we keep on voting for mediocre canidates will keep on getting mediocore politics.

Elections aren't the only way to get change.

Elections *are* the only way to get change. I honestly don't know what else you're expecting. And "mediocre" (I'd struggle to call Biden that even, he's been boring but if you look at what he's done he's been highly effective) is still several degrees of separation from what Trump is. We had 4 years of seeing what Trump has to offer; if you honestly think that a man like that deserves to be President again, then you'll never see another candidate again because Republicans will probably destroy any semblance of equal, free democracy this country has.

January 6 shows he'd be willing to do what he needs to in order to become a tyrant, and 50% of the country will follow him.

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indica
08/08/23 4:28:57 AM
#36:


I say it's 50/50

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Iodine
08/08/23 5:27:15 AM
#37:


Trump has outperformed polling in 2016 and 2020 so he is likely in the lead.

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Dark_Arbron
08/08/23 5:34:26 AM
#38:


People still think that not voting because it just perpetuates the cycle actually does anything?

Cold hard reality: the cycles existence is outside of your control. Voting for the lesser of two evils is the best you can do. A protest non-vote is not making anyone think maybe we need to do better? Its just doing nothing.

By all means, stay home on voting day. Just dont dare pat yourself on the back for it.

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ZevLoveDOOM
08/08/23 5:51:10 AM
#39:


it's really reassuring that you can be the (or one of the) biggest scumbucket(s) on earth and legions of people will adore you regardless...
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divot1338
08/08/23 6:05:42 AM
#40:


Intro2Logic posted...
It's more a question of who won't show for Biden that did before
Theres going to be an assload of women sick of being forced to be pregnant or die crossing parties and voting for Democrats like they have now for two elections.

Watch Ohio today to see it happen in real time.


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ai123
08/08/23 6:06:27 AM
#41:


Ubergeneral3 posted...
here is the thing. I hate trump but I don't like biden either. I was a leftist canidate. People vote for biden because he's not trump. If we keep on doing this nothing will ever change. After donald, it will be the next trump. Its not an election, it's a hostage situation.

I'm not voting for biden. If we keep on voting for mediocre canidates will keep on getting mediocore politics.

Elections aren't the only way to get change.
People didn't vote (enough) for the divisive Hilary Clinton (only point of difference? Being female). So the Democrats made sure the next candidate would be the most standard, inoffensive, old white guy moderate they could find.

Not voting for Biden doesn't get you 'something different' on the next go round. It gets you four years of Trump, followed by bland mediocrity that won't scare the swing voters.

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ShaneMcComez
08/08/23 6:42:28 AM
#42:


We're not really in 2024 campaign for any poll to mean much of anything. Not to mention I don't trust polls and pollsters to begin with.

Though if we're to take these polls seriously. My guess is a lot of these non-Trump voters being polled are playing footsy with their stupidity at the moment, but I bet you once we're within months and weeks away from the 2024 election. With the country staring down the barrel of a loaded gun that is a Trump/Republican Presidential dictatorship. A significant number of these disinterested and dissatisfied Liberals/Independents/Centrists will wake up to this scary nightmare that's coming for them and they will vote for the Democrat nominee.

I bet we'll see, if polls are to be believed, Biden/Democrat nominee to start gain in these polls in April of next year and later as we get closer to Election Day.
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Vivaldi7
08/08/23 6:50:26 AM
#43:


Ever considered the not so outlandish scenario where Biden dies of old age within the next 12 months ?
Then it's up to Harris to fend off Trump right....? Oh dear indeed.


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ZevLoveDOOM
08/08/23 6:51:42 AM
#44:


how is Biden still living anyway?

what kind of twisted voodoo dark sorcery magic is keeping this fucker alive?? lol
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1NfamousACE_2
08/08/23 6:57:34 AM
#45:


As a black man living in Florida, I will always vote blue in every election no matter what because the GOP tells me slavery was beneficial to blacks

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ShaneMcComez
08/08/23 6:58:30 AM
#46:


ZevLoveDOOM posted...
what kind of twisted voodoo dark sorcery magic is keeping this fucker alive?? lol
I ask myself the same question with Trump lately. He looks like he's about to collapse under his own weight at his rallies. Sweating profusely and looking awfully tired on stage.
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dummy420
08/08/23 7:17:09 AM
#47:


Ubergeneral3 posted...
here is the thing. I hate trump but I don't like biden either. I was a leftist canidate. People vote for biden because he's not trump. If we keep on doing this nothing will ever change. After donald, it will be the next trump. Its not an election, it's a hostage situation.

I'm not voting for biden. If we keep on voting for mediocre canidates will keep on getting mediocore politics.

Elections aren't the only way to get change.
I get it and used to think along this way. I used to think why vote because your vote doesn't count due to the electoral college. There are alot of people that think like that and Trump made me realize how important it is to vote in large numbers. Biden is unbuttered toast but Trump is literally a wannabe dictator. I understand 2016 and thinking checks and balances were supposed to keep him in check. It truly was a wakeup call that our country was run on handshake deals that one side fully backed out of and only follows the law when it benefits them.

I wish it wasn't just a 2 system government but that's where we are.

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Sheiky-Baby
08/08/23 7:21:47 AM
#48:


Suddenly, all the millions of people that were hiding away in the Appalachian mountains will appear to vote for him?

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Notti
08/11/23 4:30:43 AM
#49:


Yes, voting for not-Trump is your current best choice. Letting Trump walk in without you voting against him guarantees future losses.

Republicans also recognize that Trump is injured, and were praying DeSantis could trick people again, like in 2016.

Thankfully Trump is too selfish.

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