Board 8 > Discussing Mafia Topic 5: Dawn of a New Day

(+) Yeah! (+)

Night one is often pivotal in deciding games. The echoes of a powerful night one for either side will usually be felt for days, and only after the game is finished does the losing side realize that their downfall began with a bad night action or a clever tactic by the other side that obscured their plans. I have often remarked that I dont think enough people, regardless of alignment, consider their night actions very well. Scum misuse the options to them, town does the first thing that comes to mind, and often in our power heavy games on this board it can be utterly ruinous.

Do you think anyone will have such regret when this game comes to a close? I suppose only time will tell.

Ben has died. He was Town Vanilla, youve already seen the write up for that one.

Ulti has died. He was

Observant and Patient Town, Town Watcher

Sometimes it is great to put on a show day one and light the world on fire. Sometimes though all that does is allow scum to dance on the pyre of towns hopes and dreams as they kill off activity and choke the life out of a game. You are the vanguard against the darkness that is the mafia team. To execute your role well you must demonstrate the timeless patience that so many before you have successfully led a town with. You could also just claim day one and completely botch the best laid plans as well. Although history tells us that doing that may not be the best move for a town victory. Whatever you choose, the future of town is in your hands now, for I as host can do nothing but observe while you

Every night you may pick a player to watch. You will be informed of every person who targets this player unless their ability specifies otherwise. You win with Town

You may not paraphrase or claim your flavor, only your role.

Player List

1. Sultan
2. Scare
3. Plum
4. Lopen
5.Tidus
6. changmas
7. htaeD
8. Han
9. IGCD
10.Sbell
11.Kirby321
12.Ranagrande
13.Mzero
14.Red

The Dead:

Cresent - ED1 - Town Bus Driver
Ben - KN1 - Town Vanilla
Ulti - KN1 - Town Watcher

With 14 alive it takes 7 votes to become King. You have until 7pm EST Friday, April 29th to vote or the day will end in No Lynch. Lopen may not be voted King. A King is ordained as soon as they reach seven votes.

Day is now active. I am about to go make dinner and I don't believe in arbitrary start times, but end times are nice. You may now post and go about with your talk and such.

welp i fucked up real bad sorry ben :/

in the interest of attempting to not throw this game any further than i already have i am town vig who just shot him

Well, at least it was a vanilla and not a town power chang

changmas posted...

welp i fucked up real bad sorry ben :/

in the interest of attempting to not throw this game any further than i already have i am town vig who just shot him

if you had said you shot ulti I'd have been ok... now to figure out what scum team kills a barely did anything day 1 ulti.

Lopen made the kingmaker day as boring as possible and my instinct is to bring out the pitchforks for his tyranny.

quick explanation of my thought process ->

crescent thought he was scum initially (although I didn't believe her) which got some added credibility after she flipped town. Scare (who seems to know ben well) was iffy on Ben's play too. Han had him in scum tier too (next to myself, so he's just 100% wrong this game actually, which looks real bad for him in my eyes now)

but most of all the reason I ultimately pulled the trigger on him was that ben was the only player who had both crescent and myself as town. So I thought he might actually be scum and have the absolute knowledge that this was true. And given that I was likely to be lynched today, he could leverage my flip as town to turn his perception around despite being one of the most suspicious players (besides myself)

unfortunately he's just picked up accurately on my horrible day 1s and i've just giga thrown the game so yeah

plum's the other player i thought about shooting fwiw

I thought my Kingmaker day was pretty good actually once Scare made things better. I mean I got the call on Crescent wrong and it sucks to lose bus driver I guess but... well, whatever. I don't know what you actually want out of a king day if you thought the actual content was bad there.

I would have absolutely shot MZero when Crescent flipped town. He's my choice for lynch today at the moment. Definitely think the possibility he's scum that was trying to set up a double mislynch by just ignoring my ultimatum questioning about Crescent is fairly high.

Well this was probably the worst possible outcome. Two townies dead in one night (and one was a power role), and Lopen lynched what I presume to be our only protection role.

For elaboration on why I say the Bus Driver is a protection role: assuming the kill has a lower priority than the swap, theoretically you could switch someone with the King, and any targeted kills on the former would be blocked by the Aegis from being King.

I can't say I entirely blame Lopen since the arguments for Crescent not having a power role seemed pretty convincing, so I thought that while it definitely wasn't the best gambit, it wouldn't be a risky one and could pay off. I don't want to say Lopen is immediately scum from this, though; it seemed like a genuine, ego-fueled townie mistake, even if the reasoning wasn't necessarily in our best interests. (Personally I thought Ben would've been the best option, but uh, that aged poorly)

But with that in mind, though, Han should've been a clear, easy target. Scum fear him (or so he claims), and the protection role was dead, so Han should've been offed Night 1. Instead, someone else died and Han is still alive. Guess he was banking on that 20% of staying alive, huh? Or perhaps the scum didn't make the connection that Bus Driver = protection and thought someone would protect Han.

I'm guessing Ulti was the Mafia target. Although Ben died, too, he was suspected by several people, so I imagine it was some Vig shot that killed him to bring some clarity. It couldn't have been the Independent since they can't kill, as stated in the Topic 1 rules. So Ulti seems like the natural deduction, but... why Ulti? Seems like quite the random target.

Speaking of which, if we assume that Crescent was our only protection, I imagine we have to be a lot more careful with claiming roles. Any power role that claims will probably end up dead the following night if they're not King'd.

Long post over. A lot to unpack, but that Bus Driver protection role thing has been on my mind for a while now.

Han has to die today.

Kirby321 posted...

For elaboration on why I say the Bus Driver is a protection role: assuming the kill has a lower priority than the swap, theoretically you could switch someone with the King, and any targeted kills on the former would be blocked by the Aegis from being King.

bus driver can't target the king. that's written in crescent's role flip. you can still theoretically protect someone by switching the target with a member of mafia though

Kirby321 posted...

I'm guessing Ulti was the Mafia target. Although Ben died, too, he was suspected by several people, so I imagine it was some Vig shot that killed him to bring some clarity. It couldn't have been the Independent since they can't kill, as stated in the Topic 1 rules. So Ulti seems like the natural deduction, but... why Ulti? Seems like quite the random target.

A+ for you sir

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Han has to die today.

I'm inclined to agree, but I'd like to hear out Han first. This could be a setup since Ulti really was a very spontaneous option to go for...

Obellisk posted...

if you had said you shot ulti I'd have been ok... now to figure out what scum team kills a barely did anything day 1 ulti.

i hate this post btw. why would you think scum kills ben

##Kingvote: Death

I will run on the 'death to Lopen' platform, so vote me if you want him to die.
(Though I hope I am not the onle one)

changmas posted...

bus driver can't target the king. that's written in crescent's role flip. you can still theoretically protect someone by switching the target with a member of mafia though

Shoot, you're right. Damn, I thought I was being big brain, too >.<

But that's true. Targeting a Mafia is an indirect way to protect.

htaeD posted...

##Kingvote: Death

I will run on the 'death to Lopen' platform, so vote me if you want him to die.
(Though I hope I am not the onle one)

Just want to recap, what are your reasons for wanting to kill Lopen? Besides the whole tunnel vision on Crescent thing

changmas posted...

bus driver can't target the king. that's written in crescent's role flip

Kirby321 posted...

that Bus Driver protection role thing has been on my mind for a while now.

I'm actually not sure how to feel about this haha

Also my first instinct is to trust Changmas, despite my day1 misgivings

Because admitting to a kill on town takes guts
Also there is no way scum shoots Ben...

changmas posted...

i hate this post btw. why would you think scum kills ben

why would you think scum kills ulti?

Ben atleast is known as of late to be good at hiding power as town... even if I myself wanted to lynch him as scum yesterday, doesn't change the fact that scum themselves could have been wary.

Kirby321 posted...

Just want to recap, what are your reasons for wanting to kill Lopen? Besides the whole tunnel vision on Crescent thing

Oh its 100 % that. Because what else has Lopen done really.

More suspicious of Death right now too.

If your platform is just to kill me, we can have anyone do that and I doubt it's unique thought process. Not sure why you're zerg rushing such an uninspired platform other than to virtue signal more about what a bad king I was.

Actually I take it back
Scum might have killed Ben if one of them was still bitter about fire emblem mafia.
Yes I know that would also apply to me from everyone else's perspective, but the theory has to be put out there still.

htaeD posted...

Also my first instinct is to trust Changmas, despite my day1 misgivings

Because admitting to a kill on town takes guts
Also there is no way scum shoots Ben...

Agreed. Granted, Day 1 just started and there hasn't been much time for a counter-claim. But changmas' logic seems to line up, and I doubt he could've made all that up without prior knowledge that Ben was going to die.

Lopen posted...

More suspicious of Death right now too.

If your platform is just to kill me, we can have anyone do that and I doubt it's unique thought process. Not sure why you're zerg rushing such an uninspired platform other than to virtue signal more about what a bad king I was.

I am mostly just honoring my promise, I dont care if its not unique.
If anyone else wants to kill you, I am okay with that too.
The final sentence of my vote post was meant to gauge that vibe

Kirby321 posted...

Agreed. Granted, Day 1 just started and there hasn't been much time for a counter-claim. But changmas' logic seems to line up, and I doubt he could've made all that up without prior knowledge that Ben was going to die.

Ehr... if he was scum he would definitely have prior knowledge tho.

Kirby321 posted...

time for a counter-claim.

who...wha...why would that even happen?

Kirby321 posted...

Agreed. Granted, Day 1 just started and there hasn't been much time for a counter-claim. But changmas' logic seems to line up, and I doubt he could've made all that up without prior knowledge that Ben was going to die.

what is this logic btw its so weak. if i'm scum with an extra kill i clearly have the knowledge that he's going to die. then i can make up this narrative of shooting the other most suspicious player to clear myself as town vig.

my claim is 100% the truth and you should believe it as such but this is horrible reasoning as to why

My instinct is to believe the vigi claim for now.

I didn't tunnel Crescent btw.

If Crescent comes back and acted with any attitude that wasn't OH I'M SO DEPRESSED (and also claimed she would make sure to tunnel me the next day) I absolutely would have killed Ulti or Ben.

Funny my top two suspects were killed last night and flipped town-- by Ulti math that means I have a 900% chance of being right with Mzero though.

Okay a part of me is disappointed that Crescent didn't think it was worth safeguarding her power. But I am also annoyed that you refused to listen to the many players who called her town basically. And you only gave your concluding reasons after it was too late for anyone to argue against them.

Obellisk posted...

why would you think scum kills ulti?

Ben atleast is known as of late to be good at hiding power as town... even if I myself wanted to lynch him as scum yesterday, doesn't change the fact that scum themselves could have been wary.

i'll be honest i've got no clue why they killed ulti. other than on my reread of Day 1 it's abundantly clear he was town.

The post that made me certain was that he had initially put you on his scum reads list. Then out of absolutely nowhere he does some very very bad math and decides there's only a 3% chance you could be scum this game and instantly clears you out of thin air on that. unquestionably a town ulti move

not sure why mafia decides that's the night kill though, unless they had some inclination he had a power

Your reasons were bad and had no layers.

Repeating the same bad reasons over and over doesn't give them more weight.

The fact that Ulti flipped town after saying she was "highly emotional, thus town" makes me think any active game from Crescent is considered a town game because he absolutely said she was obv town way before there was any remote indication she was emotional or annoying about anything.

changmas posted...

not sure why mafia decides that's the night kill though, unless they had some inclination he had a power

My guess based on the meta ulti was trying to feed the game was that he was power.

So...

changmas posted...

what is this logic btw its so weak. if i'm scum with an extra kill i clearly have the knowledge that he's going to die. then i can make up this narrative of shooting the other most suspicious player to clear myself as town vig.

my claim is 100% the truth and you should believe it as such but this is horrible reasoning as to why

Scum with... extra kill is not something I considered. That's a fair argument. My logic makes sense under the assumption that Ulti was the Mafia kill and that Mafia only has one kill per night, because if they targeted Ulti, how would they know Ben died?

But yeah, scum with an extra kill would definitely ruin that logic. ... Or does my initial thought process still fall apart even if scum didn't have an extra kill? Maybe I should've gotten more sleep >_>

That was assuming he was town of course scum ulti is a wild card

Lopen posted...

Your reasons were bad and had no layers.

Repeating the same bad reasons over and over doesn't give them more weight.

The fact that Ulti flipped town after saying she was "highly emotional, thus town" makes me think any active game from Crescent is considered a town game because he absolutely said she was obv town way before there was any remote indication she was emotional or annoying about anything.

Her being away from the game is what one would call a 'emotional reaction'.

Also what the hell does 'it has no layers' even mean in any important way?

Wait, come to think of it, wasn't Ulti trying to bait the Mafia into killing him? I specifically remember a post in spoiler tags that was targeted at the Mafia. Was that Ulti?

Kirby321 posted...

Scum with... extra kill is not something I considered. That's a fair argument. My logic makes sense under the assumption that Ulti was the Mafia kill and that Mafia only has one kill per night, because if they targeted Ulti, how would they know Ben died?

But yeah, scum with an extra kill would definitely ruin that logic. ... Or does my initial thought process still fall apart even if scum didn't have an extra kill? Maybe I should've gotten more sleep >_>

I've still only played like 5 games here but in general, scum has a (single) extra kill per game. With the way Chris set up the game, I'm sure it's something scum buys with their scumpoints so they won't be able to use it until then.

Actually scum might have just killed Ulti because they felt he was not being Ulti enough...

htaeD posted...

Her being away from the game is what one would call a 'emotional reaction'.

Nope. Ulti was admitted this was strange to leave the game

He also called her obvious town before she had left the game (or I had been elected King, for that matter)

I remember the order of events better than you, because I was actually trying to scum hunt with my questions while you were too busy being hysterical about me being a tyrant.

Kirby321 posted...

Wait, come to think of it, wasn't Ulti trying to bait the Mafia into killing him? I specifically remember a post in spoiler tags that was targeted at the Mafia. Was that Ulti?

My memory says this was correct.

All players will know, henceforth, that the mafia does not have traditional roles. Instead they are granted points for ????, ????, and ???? which can be used to buy actions every night. Lynching a member of the Mafia impedes their point production.

EXAMPLE: Player A uses Roleblock n1 at ??? cost. Player B uses Roleblock n2 at ??? cost. This is a valid night 1 to night 2 mafia strategy in order to move around who has the abilities. Please keep this in mind as you are playing.

I suppose they could buy an extra kill night1 right away if I am reading this right.

Kirby321 posted...

Wait, come to think of it, wasn't Ulti trying to bait the Mafia into killing him? I specifically remember a post in spoiler tags that was targeted at the Mafia. Was that Ulti?

That was him!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80000851/964620574

Maybe it's just a coincidence. Or perhaps the Mafia was trying to call his bluff?

changmas posted...

I've still only played like 5 games here but in general, scum has a (single) extra kill per game. With the way Chris set up the game, I'm sure it's something scum buys with their scumpoints so they won't be able to use it until then.

Did not realize that was a norm. Guess the Mafia games I played back then were so small that an extra Mafia kill would severely unbalanced the game. Good to know.

In that case, yeah, it's probably not out of the realm for that to be like a really expensive scum points option.

htaeD posted...

Also what the hell does 'it has no layers' even mean in any important way?

It means the argument for Crescent being town was because she acts that way as town, but we could get no actual indications of how a scum crescent differs in any meaningful way that was actually true.

It was basically a tautology.

Ulti is the only one who tried give a specific reason, and it was basically directly wrong.

Heck the fact that she just left the game should have been an indication that she was scum to anyone using past behavior as a guideline and trying to approach the possibility in an unbiased fashion.

Lopen posted...

Nope. Ulti was admitted this was strange to leave the game

He also called her obvious town before she had left the game (or I had been elected King, for that matter)

I remember the order of events better than you, because I was actually trying to scum hunt with my questions while you were too busy being hysterical about me being a tyrant.

But your questions came after she left the game, which is what my answer was based on.
Why are we making this about Ulti anyway? Does his answer override everyone elses? Even the players who you didnt ask but still told you to leave Crescent alone?

Lopen posted...

It means the argument for Crescent being town was because she acts that way as town, but we could get no actual indications of how a scum crescent differs in any meaningful way that was actually true.

It was basically a tautology.

Ulti is the only one who tried give a specific reason, and it was basically directly wrong.

Heck the fact that she just left the game should have been an indication that she was scum to anyone using past behavior as a guideline and trying to approach the possibility in an unbiased fashion.

Except I gave examples of the opposite, since she was selfdestructive as town in the past
And she never was like that as scum.

Ulti again an idiot. First the ##jump, now the kill baiting as a power

You know, since changmas is pretty much confirmed Town (unless somehow scum is able to extra kill this early into the game), what say we elect him as King? It ensures that we have a confirmed Town for at least Day 3 if the scum can't purchase immunity-piercing bullets or something crazy like that.