Current Events > NYT/Sienna Polling: Biden losing 5 of 6 major swing states

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Zero_Destroyer
11/05/23 11:09:05 AM
#1:


https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1721135919342727338

Wisconsin and Nevada are outliers here, but polling tends to overestimate Rs in NV and underestimate them in WI. Genuinely disastrous polling for Biden from a real polling firm and not the junk Nate Silver was feeding into his 2022 model.

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Goldice
11/05/23 11:10:35 AM
#2:


Polls at this point are utterly meaningless.

Take PA. Right now Biden is losing by 4 but the Dem senator is up. There will not be that many cross votes.

At this point in time, Romney according to polls was on track to the WH.

Edit: this isn't a cope. I think there's a very good chance Trump is president again. Just that this isn't telling us anything.

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#3
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BroodRyu
11/05/23 11:11:05 AM
#4:


How is this possible?
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Zero_Destroyer
11/05/23 11:12:11 AM
#5:


Goldice posted...
Polls at this point are utterly meaningless.

Take PA. Right now Biden is losing by 4 but the Dem senator is up. There will not be that many cross votes.

At this point in time, Romney according to polls was on track to the WH.

I don't disagree things can change. But Biden's polling has been very, very, very bad for several months.

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Block_that_Kick
11/05/23 11:12:22 AM
#6:


Yeah, Im sure Biden being up 2 in Wisconsin yet down five in Michigan is entirely accurate.

*wanking motion*

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NPC
11/05/23 11:12:37 AM
#7:


BroodRyu posted...
How is this possible?
Surprisingly, a lot of people vote with their wallets
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Irony
11/05/23 11:13:00 AM
#8:


/doubt

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variasuite
11/05/23 11:13:37 AM
#9:


If this country votes for Trump again then it deserves everything that follows.

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GrandConjuraton
11/05/23 11:13:46 AM
#10:


Political polling is meaningless these days, so...

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superbot400
11/05/23 11:14:13 AM
#11:


Zero_Destroyer posted...
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1721135919342727338

Wisconsin and Nevada are outliers here, but polling tends to overestimate Rs in NV and underestimate them in WI. Genuinely disastrous polling for Biden from a real polling firm and not the junk Nate Silver was feeding into his 2022 model.

Pollster traditionally always overestimate Rs in NV, downplay Dems there.

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Inohira
11/05/23 11:14:20 AM
#12:


Those polls don't include RFK Jr. tho. Maybe he'll save Biden.

BroodRyu posted...
How is this possible?

Because of the US political pendulum. People get bored of one party and switch to the other.

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hockeybub89
11/05/23 11:17:13 AM
#13:


We're all going to die

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PiOverlord
11/05/23 11:17:13 AM
#14:


I still am of the belief that polling has been overestimating Trump Republicans, and that Trump won't do any better. Once the average voter is reminded who Trump is again, they'll go with the choice that looks more normal (Biden).

Remember how the 2022 red wave became a red whimper.

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CyborgSage00x0
11/05/23 11:18:04 AM
#15:


Not worried. Polls this far out are always way off, and polling in general isn't very trustworthy anymore. The idea of Trump not being in a jail/being able to run is also silly (he will be for either or both), as is the idea of him suddenly being more popular now after losing hard the first time. And the Blue Wave hasn't stopped since it began. Then you still have Trump himself and others in the GOP saying to not even vote, bleed over from distrust if the SC, Speaker fuckery, etc. Like, everything is hard stacked against the GOP. Energy and motivation had to be way down. Especially Roe still being relevant.

But hey, if it scares people into not getting complacent, that's fine by me.

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Block_that_Kick
11/05/23 11:19:00 AM
#16:


Wait for a poll eight months from now when the GOP nominee will be going to prison.

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Zero_Destroyer
11/05/23 11:19:27 AM
#17:


Block_that_Kick posted...
Yeah, Im sure Biden being up 2 in Wisconsin yet down five in Michigan is entirely accurate.

*wanking motion*

I wouldn't take the WI polling at face value because Dems have been overestimated by polling there for several cycles. WI being +2-3 R and Michigan being around the same is entirely plausible with this data.

I think people missed the boat on how 2022 was called wrong. There were a few good pollsters in that cycle. If I was just posting trash like Trafalgar, sure, it'd warrant dismissal, but this is consistent with Biden's unfavorables.

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#18
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Inohira
11/05/23 11:23:51 AM
#19:


PiOverlord posted...
I still am of the belief that polling has been overestimating Trump Republicans, and that Trump won't do any better. Once the average voter is reminded who Trump is again, they'll go with the choice that looks more normal (Biden).

Remember how the 2022 red wave became a red whimper.

Legitimate polling never predicted a red wave, only polls from partisan thinktanks and high schoolers did. The GOP was always going to underperform that year due to the Roe overturn and Trump endorsing weak alternatives to the nomination over natural primary frontrunners.

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CyborgSage00x0
11/05/23 11:25:10 AM
#20:


Having MI that much red is what gives it away as a bad poll. I'm not sure why it's overestimating Dems in WI, either- the SC election there shows the tides have shifted hard

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hyperpowder
11/05/23 11:30:02 AM
#21:


Yeah after the 2020 election Ive completely stopped listening to polling. I remember almost every poll had Trump winning by a large margin.

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#22
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Goldice
11/05/23 11:44:01 AM
#23:


Zero_Destroyer posted...


I don't disagree things can change. But Biden's polling has been very, very, very bad for several months.

So was Obamas early in the Romney cycle.

The fact is the supporters of the opposition are more amped to vote. Furthermore, polls tend to be pretty nonsensical at this point. Like I said, the Dem senator is gonna win in a runaway but Trump is gonna win PA by 4? That's literal nonsense.

Dems have been out performing every special election and outperformed the 2022 midterms but they're gonna get crushed in 2024 despite the fact that the economy messaging is roughly the same? It's possible, but it'd be pretty surprising. Especially since MI and WI have gone more blue in follow up elections since 2016.

Keep in mind I think Trump can very easily win. But it's gonna be very close either way.

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argonautweakend
11/05/23 11:53:33 AM
#24:


I feel like PA doesn't like Trump that much, because in the 2022 Governor election Josh Shapiro(democrat) beat Mastriano, a Trump fanboy by 800K votes. (I am not sure if Trump himself endorsed Mastriano, but I know Mastriano endorsed trump).

We'll see. If Trump loses close to Biden in 2024 you have 3 main areas to thank: Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Centre County(where the Penn State main campus is located).
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Doom_Art
11/05/23 11:54:14 AM
#25:


The performance we've been seeing from Democrats in other elections is not pointing to an environment where the GOP sweeps most swing states

I'm sorry but we'd be seeing something completely different rn if that was the case.

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Inohira
11/05/23 11:54:15 AM
#26:


hyperpowder posted...
Yeah after the 2020 election Ive completely stopped listening to polling. I remember almost every poll had Trump winning by a large margin.

There were almost no polls that said Trump was winning 2020 at all.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/

Like I can't even find one on the list where Trump was ahead.

Any polls saying Trump was going to win must've been so fake they didn't pass the credibility check to get on 538.

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BunkerBoy
11/05/23 11:55:28 AM
#27:


NPC posted...
Surprisingly, a lot of people vote with their wallets
You have to be very, very stupid to vote for Donald Trump
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Block_that_Kick
11/05/23 11:56:43 AM
#28:


If the Michigan GOP were a person, it would be a someone on meth smearing their feces on a public bathroom wall. They are the most dysfunctional party in the country and the voters have rejected their idiocy over and over to the point where the Democrats now control the entire state. And the response from said MI GOP after losing everything is to be even more MAGA than before.

Yet Im supposed to believe that Trump will pull off an eight point swing in Michigan compared to 2020. Yeah, fuck out of here with that.

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CyborgSage00x0
11/05/23 11:57:13 AM
#29:


Block_that_Kick posted...
If the Michigan GOP were a person, it would be a someone on meth smearing their feces on a public bathroom wall. They are the most dysfunctional party in the country and the voters have rejected their idiocy over and over to the point where the Democrats now control the entire state. And the response from said MI GOP after losing everyone is to be even more MAGA than before.

Yet Im supposed to believe that Trump will pull off an eight point swing in Michigan compared to 2020. Yeah, fuck out of here with that.
They are also completely broke.

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loafy013
11/05/23 11:58:54 AM
#30:


BroodRyu posted...
How is this possible?
Chances are that it is, once again, phone polling on a landline. It really skews the responses.

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HylianFox
11/05/23 12:03:20 PM
#31:


Reminder that these polls are bullshit and only serve to discourage people from actually voting when the time comes

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GrandConjuraton
11/05/23 12:05:03 PM
#32:


HylianFox posted...
Reminder that these polls are bullshit and only serve to discourage people from actually voting when the time comes


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#33
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Zikten
11/05/23 12:34:04 PM
#34:


[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

Assuming the boards are still here a year from now
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HylianFox
11/05/23 12:38:03 PM
#35:


[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


Who's alt

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BlueTigerLion
11/05/23 12:39:49 PM
#36:


I remember The Young Turks saying this and getting laughed at. Hope they are wrong and not predicting another election outcome like they did in 2016.

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#37
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uwnim
11/05/23 12:42:31 PM
#38:


Voters are idiots if they vote in Trump next elections. Like sure, if you want a shit economy and loss of freedom, go vote for him. But if you want things to be functional, keep Biden.

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#39
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Zero_Destroyer
11/05/23 12:59:23 PM
#40:


[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


he bought a bottle of Hennessey and everything

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Goldenguy
11/05/23 1:19:15 PM
#41:


variasuite posted...
If this country votes for Trump again then it deserves everything that follows.

This. Everything has been plainly visible front and center for 8+ years. I hate that a lot of folks logic is that Biden isn't absolutely amazeballs so let's vote someone else, with that someone else being the biggest fuckstick ever voted into office.

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BlueTigerLion
11/05/23 1:26:49 PM
#42:


HylianFox posted...
Reminder that these polls are bullshit and only serve to discourage people from actually voting when the time comes

I thought the NYT was one of the more liberal newspapers. Wouldn't their goal be to get liberals to vote since Biden behind according to polls?

If they wanted to get liberals to stay home it would be to report Biden has a massive lead so then people stay home thinking they aren't needed.

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meatlesshotdogz
11/05/23 1:31:44 PM
#43:


This is why trump is being removed from the ballot for some states already. Im positive he wont be allowed to run in all 50 states.

once hes officially removed, Im sure some of his supporters will choose violence. And those supporters will be jailed and or killed in the act Im sure.

trump will incite more violence after this happens and the US will descend into complete chaos
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Heineken14
11/05/23 1:35:31 PM
#44:


NPC posted...

Surprisingly, a lot of people vote with their wallets


That can't be it.

What you meant to say, a lot of people are fucking morons.

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#45
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invertedlegdrop
11/05/23 2:07:59 PM
#46:


Eh just drop a few vote boxes outside, itll work out like it did in Connecticut with that democratic primary


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mybbqrules
11/05/23 5:29:28 PM
#47:


So we believe polls again? It's so hard to keep track of.

I remember the last time polls indicated repubs would win big.

In 2022. How did that work out for them again?

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#48
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Zero_Destroyer
11/05/23 5:55:09 PM
#49:


[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


Yup; it was a "hype" cycle where pundits ignored a lot of polling, a lot of pollsters chose not to publish, and pundits would cite literal fake polls like Trafalgar or Patriot Polling or use bogus aggregates like RCP. The pollster here called the 2022 races well. Why ignore that they are saying Biden is way underwater?

I do agree it could change since Trump's campaign isn't in full swing and, really, votes for Biden (like in 2020) were largely votes against Trump in some way or another, and his eventual domination of the news cycle could poison things.

But the "I can't hear you" stuff is like it was in 2016. People should've learned a lifetime lesson from it.

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mybbqrules
11/05/23 6:04:35 PM
#50:


Zero_Destroyer posted...
But the "I can't hear you" stuff is like it was in 2016. People should've learned a lifetime lesson from it.
Wait until we get a little closer. I know once 2024 rolls around I'm going to start beating the drum of "pretend it's a dead heat race".

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