Board 8 > Stock Topic 22

(+) Yeah! (+)

ATHX (Huge potential here-- they just ousted the old CEO who was a great scientist but perhaps not a great business mind. stem cell has a lot of applications and all they've been refining this for decades now-- of course if you look at their graph you can see why they've been refining it so long, but I think the pop is coming soon. Their partner Healios in Japan has aggressively been pushing for better business practices and more information on what they're doing which to me says they're expecting big things fairly soon)
DNN (in possession of uranium deposits with good high grade easily mined uranium. if nuclear power becomes in vogue again, which I'm thinking it will, this will fly)
FUBO (streaming TV with a sports focus that is trying to integrate sports betting into their platform)
LI (hybrid cars, China. Think China's infrastructure isn't quite ready for pure electric cars and Li will usurp Nio as the market leader in the next couple of years for a good while)
TRVN (biotech that has an FDA morphine replacement that already has it undervalued if it gets good distribution. Also more drugs in the pipeline)
SPCE (SPACE SHIPZ)
XPEV (electric cars from China-- more affordable designs than Nio looks like, looking into self driving tech. Nio is a decent idea too but I think there's more growth potential with XPeng at the moment)

Things I own I think could double+ in a few years. Will they all? Well no probably not but I think they're all worth looking into.

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Thanks man!

Pharma stocks still bewilder me because all the data are supposedly public, yet it seems impossible to get in before the spike.

So with TRVN technically you're not really gambling on results of their data (that's upside, the morphine substitute is already FDA approved) as much as their ability to usurp Morphine as the market leader. Morphine has a lot of stigmas and such so to me it will happen it's just a matter of when. It's more of a traditional thing than your typical pharma, just waiting for the chips they've got in play to show on the balance sheet pretty much.

ATHX on the other hand yeah you're probably gambling a bit as they don't have any approved treatments but they've had a really good methodical scientific method with a lot of good results so I think it'll get there soon and they aren't going under due to cash burn any time soon (though offerings could still happen)

I think their partnership with Healios makes it a lot more safe even if the FDA is going to be dickish.

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DNN is looking the most interesting to me at the moment, but the fact that Moonroof has it is definitely troublesome.

It's okay Moonroof will sell before we actually hit the upside

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I think I'll have to look into TRVN this weekend. That sounds like a good setup for a huge win long term. You got a time frame you're hoping for?

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The frustrating part about a uranium play is that the Democrats, purely for political reasons, do not seem to want to invest in nuclear. I don't know.

I'm interested in DNN but I refuse to buy a stock after it's gone up so much without a major pullback. If it gets back like somewhere around $1 I'll buy I think.

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I have doubled my money in FunFF

Should have put all my money in that instead of FPVD dammit


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If Lou can put everyone's fears to rest bout their share structure, FPVD will set course for Mars. Wait for that ticker change. I'm holding for a bit, no fear.

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red sox 777 posted...

I'm interested in DNN but I refuse to buy a stock after it's gone up so much without a major pullback. If it gets back like somewhere around $1 I'll buy I think.

I think I may do the same

I'm thinking TRVN will double+ in the next year. Catalysts you're looking forward to is the DEA releasing some sorta statement that their drug is cute and pop or good test results from their pipeline or just revenue increasing. But honestly with that I'm holding long. I see it as a dividend stock at some point and if I have a bucket of shares I got cheap that's gonna be awesome.

Seems like the management for TRVN is really smart. They held off on offering after the FDA approval until their next quarter started-- I think they want to have the quarters look positive in terms of stock price to the best they can to draw investors in. I think they can stave off cash burn now as they have income coming in from some China partnership that gives them milestone payments for their drug (which will probably be widely used over there) and shouldn't require another offering for a good long while, which would be your main fear with a company like that that isn't currently generating quite enough revenue to run in the green yet.

Though it does have that typical Pharma pop that you can probably sell the news on either of those then buy back in cheaper. But yeah not why I'm holding it.

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My personal mid term price target for Trevena is $7 or so by the way, assuming no other positive catalysts other than their approved drug the revenue it deserves. I think just what they have on deck will end up being worth $1b market cap pretty soon-- this is just taking a conservative easing in of it replacing morphine in various settings.

Obviously as a pharma it can grow beyond that too with good results on other stuff.

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Dang, was thinking about putting into PLTR yesterday but figured it the dip would stick around longer

I put a small amount into TRVN but I might reevaluate putting some more in.... this is one that keeps coming up a lot over time

Does anybody have any good very short term ideas to put my AVCTW proceeds in while I wait for whatever is happening to end to go back in?

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CoolCly posted...

this is one that keeps coming up a lot over time

I mean to be fair it's all my fault it keeps getting brought up. I do encourage everyone to do their own DD.

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It's a lot more than just you here or even meme subreddits that I see Trevena come up a lot. I've been writing it off completely because I saw it on meme subreddits all the time and just assumed that's all it is. I generally ignore everything I hear about those stocks. But it might actually be legit and worth looking into more.

I similarly wrote SPCE off for that....


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Put a buy limit in for DNN at $1.01.

Does anyone have the history of why this was >$10 around 2007? Why the collapse?

My guess, without knowing anything about the company, is that it had a lot to do with oil prices. When oil was at $150/barrel uranium was looking like a good alternative. When oil prices collapsed, suddenly uranium wasn't interesting anymore.

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In some educational info, Destiny has released his GME Manifesto
.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHM4gFiem7s

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nFKt9Vd7bYsVSCIDwbXxrtUFTuJEFJbiOpEAgc2uw5k/edit

The tldr why I think it's worth posting is that 15 minutes in, the 23 minute or so Stock 101 section and then the next 23 minute section of Market Manipulation are VERY educational information on how stocks mechanically work. i think anybody who actually wants to keep trading long term should watch this - knowing how trades are settled in the background by various clearing houses and agencies is background knowledge we should all have.

For more general commentary about the manifesto as a whole:

He's been railing VERY heavily against the whole narrative around GME, where it was about the little guy against big evil hedgefunds, and that working class people were all making obscene amounts of wealth while the bad guys go bankrupt, and that both common users and social media influencers were super irresponsible about fanning these narratives. A lot of the talking points that came out WSB like updates about short interest and how Robinhood suspended trading in collusion with the hedgefunds were not true.

During the mania, he was very strongly pushing back against the idea that retail investors are all making money, and that many clueless people jumping in on the hype were going to end up losing big time. He also believes a short squeeze was never possible.

I think he's mostly right about everything. A lot of retail investors who jumped in never got out and their investments. maybe even most And most people just repeated the talking points that came up on WSB. To be honest, I was very uncomfortable even here on board 8 about it - there was so much mania by posters coming in here excited about buying GME at $200-300 and I don't think much was down to work against that narrative. I kinda feel bad for LOTM since he's one of the only people who pushed back and tried to convince people not to jump in and he got massively dragged for it. That was because he had no specific knowledge of the GME situation and was just arguing "hey dont bet on this mania you are probably just going to lose out since you won't know how to do this properly" which was really good advice tbh.

I disagree with Destiny about there being a short squeeze possible, I think it absolutely could have happened, but i also agree that every body yelling to buy GME and Hold and Diamond Hands and "we don't even care about losses, we just want to screw over the hedgefunds" stuff was super damaging and irresponsible. Encouraging people to actually do it is harmful to them, as they are likely to be the ones that lose when the price crashes. It can be tough to reconcile this view of events with my own participation in what happened, but I only ever saw GME as an opportunity for me to buy in and take advantage of an unusual event. I don't think encouraging others to buy at the higher prices was a good thing. The criticism Desitny aims at social media influencers who would actively encourage everything is valid IMO.


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Looks like Wix turned to be Israel's highest company by market cap
This is...wow.
With all due respect to Wix, this just came out from nowhere. Just a year ago the company was worth like 1/3 of what it is now. And that was still too much for a company operating on a loss

I feel like the market just prefer to like certain stocks regardless of how the company really performs. If this is not a clear sign of a bubble I don't know what is

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Thomas Peterffy, the IBKR chairman and founder, has basically said that the short squeeze was starting and would have happened if brokerages did not stop buying. He also said that Robinhood traders, with only about $40 billion in assets, were not big enough players to move markets that much, so that sounds a lot like a confession that it was the actions of larger brokerages like IBKR that stopped the squeeze. He thinks that the squeeze would have caused something of a system collapse (I interpret that to mean brokerages taking heavy losses as their short selling clients get margin called and the positions cannot be closed without going beyond the equity the short sellers have, putting the liability onto the brokerage).

As for people saying to buy GME not to make money but as part of a social movement, well, they were pretty transparent I think. They said to buy it and expect to lose money. If people bought it based on that, well, they must have expected to lose money. If I go watch a movie at a theater I expect to lose the money I pay for admission; if I play a round of golf I expect to lose the money I pay the golf course; if I read some social media person's post saying to buy ABC stock and lose money, and I buy it based on that, I must be comfortable with losing that money.

WSB went down conspiracy theory land a bit with all the talk of short ladders and that kind of stuff.

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One thing I agree with is that there is a huge flaw with this whole concept of buying stocks based on what other people tell you. Because they aren't telling you when to sell. And even if they did, conditions change, so unless they are continuously updating you on their assessment, you are going to be somewhat blind in selling if you haven't done your own research.

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I call bullshit on this being a social movement. This was just a facade trying to not make it sound like market manipulation, trying to hide behind "a noble cause"
Social movement can never happen in the stock market by nature. Regular people can post bullshit on the Internet as much as they want and usually suffer no consequences for this. But buying stock as part of a "social movement" can cause them to lose a lot of money, and nobody cares enough about this

Would I be willing to lose $1000 just to fuck up a hedge fund? hell no.

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I completely agree with Nanis - that was just an excuse to continue to encourage everyone to keep buying without looking like you are trying to screw over the retail people buying, and without having do what red sox just astutely pointed out... nobody is telling you when to sell. WSB absolutely wanted nobody to ever sell, but that was a critical part of coming out of GME without a loss.

As for what the Interactive Broker says, that lines up with some data Destiny shows that in the later days of the price increases, buying was actually coming from institutions and not retail investors. Retail investors were net selling. So it really did require the insitutions to keep buying to cause the squeeze. But I wonder why they stopped.... would they have stopped regardless of the retail investors getting their buys halted or not, or was that the signal to them that this was probably over and to reverse course?

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CoolCly posted...

I completely agree with Nanis - that was just an excuse to continue to encourage everyone to keep buying without looking like you are trying to screw over the retail people buying, and without having do what red sox just astutely pointed out... nobody is telling you when to sell. WSB absolutely wanted nobody to ever sell, but that was a critical part of coming out of GME without a loss.

As for what the Interactive Broker says, that lines up with some data Destiny shows that in the later days of the price increases, buying was actually coming from institutions and not retail investors. Retail investors were net selling. So it really did require the insitutions to keep buying to cause the squeeze. But I wonder why they stopped.... would they have stopped regardless of the retail investors getting their buys halted or not, or was that the signal to them that this was probably over and to reverse course?

Based on the short selling data we have from S3 (probably trustworthy at this point), short sellers went from being short about 120% of the float to about 50% short in 2 days on 1/28 and 1/29. To close a short position you must buy the stock, and that's a lot of stock being bought, so probably most of the institutional buying was short sellers covering.

On net, retail investors made billions, and short sellers lost billions. But yeah, there are retail investors who lost (those who got in late), and there are short sellers who won (those who got in late).

And there is a fairly simple game theory explanation for why they would slow down buying to cover when the brokerages stopped the buying. If you are a hedge fund, and you believe that the stock is going to go past the point where you get margin called, it is to your advantage to get out earlier, not later. If you can get out at $400, you take losses but don't go bankrupt. If you wait until it hits $2,000 and you get margin called (supposing you can withstand it up to then), you go bankrupt. If you are a fund without a lot of exposure (maybe your margin call point is $10,000, and you are confident the squeeze will end before you get margin called), then you can ride it out.

But for the funds with margin call points nearer the market price, they must have felt tremendous pressure on 1/27 and the morning of 1/28 to cover. Of course they didn't want to do it because they knew it would (a) result in big realized losses, and (b) their own buying would drive up the price. Some of the earlier shorts (Citron, Melvin) already covered on 1/27 or earlier. And probably, that frenzy of buying on the morning of 1/28 that took the price above $480 was some of the other funds deciding to get out now while they still could with their businesses intact.

Once the buying restrictions go into place, suddenly the funds are not expecting the price to go up. So there is no need for a mad rush for the exit to be first to get out - they understand that everyone will be able to get out - at some loss, but it won't be the world where the first person out loses $400/share and later people have to pay $4000/share. And you see them covering the majority of their positions probably in the 300s.

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CoolCly posted...

I think he's mostly right about everything. A lot of retail investors who jumped in never got out and their investments. maybe even most And most people just repeated the talking points that came up on WSB. To be honest, I was very uncomfortable even here on board 8 about it - there was so much mania by posters coming in here excited about buying GME at $200-300 and I don't think much was down to work against that narrative. I kinda feel bad for LOTM since he's one of the only people who pushed back and tried to convince people not to jump in and he got massively dragged for it. That was because he had no specific knowledge of the GME situation and was just arguing "hey dont bet on this mania you are probably just going to lose out since you won't know how to do this properly" which was really good advice tbh.

Everything that has come out since then from Brokerage CEOs and the due diligence at the time still says that it was the right play. What was happening on the Thursday that the brokerages shut down still says that it was the right play. Without the illegal actions of the clearing houses/brokerages, we get that squeeze.

What wasn't the right play was STILL holding after we rebounded on Friday. We should've known by then to get out while we could, and that the financial institutions weren't ever going to let us win. The money at the top all works for each other. They pay the politicians. The stock market is basically exactly how McConaughey describes it in Wolf of Wall St.

Basically I did fuck up by not selling on Friday when I had the chance, but it was a valuable lesson to me. And it has made me despise the government and our financial institutions even more than I thought possible which is also valuable because I know now how much smarter it is to be into crypto.

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Like there is so much holier than thou we knew better bullshit that's SO EASY to say after the fact. Yes, LOTM was weary, but he was speaking from a position of ignorance. He didn't actually know the situation. He was right, but not because of any of the reasons he said.

If he had come out and said: Our financial system and stock markets are CORRUPT and so is our government, they ARE NOT going to let you guys get away with this EVEN THOUGH you're right about your reasoning then yeah. That's not what he said. Giving him, or yourself, or anyone else credit for their hindsight tut-tut-tutting is dishonest and obnoxious.

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Speaking of Crypto. ETH and ADA today :) :) :)

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https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lnqgz8/gme_yolo_update_feb_19_2021/
So uh...
DFV actually bought 50k more shares (around $2M)

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He likes the stock!

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In the last few days I was making a excel sheet, trying to figure out whether I actually gained or lost money in my whole adventure in the stock market.
It wasn't a simple "I put $50k into Robinhood and now it's $52k so I gained $2k" because I have 3 different accounts and need to take into consideration stuff like currency converation, the time I transferred stocks from my bank account to a new broker and so on

The end result was something I was afraid of. To know that I actually lost money in the stock market
Since I bought my first stock in July 2019...I lost $1400
The true culprit is the dollar tanking. As it results in a $4410 loss. Otherwise, I would have been $3000 in the green
So..yay >_>

I am debating what I should do. I am clearly not good at this. A fucking year and a half and this is my result? what a disgrace. Novice traders that only created their account a few months ago already made a thousands dollars profit and I can't even have a single digit profit
I am spending so much time in this. In Whatsapp, Telegram groups, Internet forums (like this stock topic), WSB and so on. All of this for what?
Not to mention the emotional impact this has on me

And yet...I know the feeling of making tons of money on the stock market. I did it. It felt good. I want to feel it again and I want to make money again. I know it has the potential and I need it if I ever want to buy myself a apartment someday.
A $40k income in a year when a decent apartment here costs $500k (and I am not even halfway there) because Israel sucks and we have a real estate bubble for years now that the government doesn't give a shit it and the prices keeps climbing even despite fucking COVID

I don't fucking know what to do

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Nanis23 posted...

Novice traders that only created their account a few months ago already made a thousands dollars profit and I can't even have a single digit profit

Found your problem. Its easy to make 1000% gains if you also lose all of your money 90% of the time. Its like saying Joe won a million dollar scratch off, why cant I be Joe

My guess is you are chasing too many scratch offs

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I'm in the red on nearly every speculative stock I've ever bought (I jumped in on both AMC and NOK at the worst possible times and am still holding those), my one foray into cannabis stock has been a year-long exercise of nothing, and I held Lucken Coffee too long and am now barely even on that one.

Overall, I'm still way up because of longterm investments in steady companies, but man, if I had done something like take all my speculative investments and throw it in... any reputable security (even something as unsexy as Walmart), I'd be rolling in it.

But I guess I'm greedy, and without a spouse and kid to support, it's easy to be undisciplined.

Speaking of, how many of the regulars here have kids to support? I think neon and Chris?

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Losing money because of the dollar devaluing?

Boy have I got just the cure for you!

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ExThaNemesis posted...

Losing money because of the dollar devaluing?

Boy have I got just the cure for you!

There are two things that can make me lose even more money than stocks-
Options and Crypto

So no thank you lol

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Nanis23 posted...

I don't f***ing know what to do

Buy Ethereum

@Sunroof did you wind up buying BTC when it was ~$37k the other week like I told you to?

GameStonk posted...

@Sunroof did you wind up buying BTC when it was ~$37k the other week like I told you to?

iirc he bought more BTC and ETH when I told him to but I can't remember the price points then.

In any case I'm so glad he listened

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ExThaNemesis posted...

iirc he bought more BTC and ETH when I told him to but I can't remember the price points then.

In any case I'm so glad he listened

Yes but he may have panic sold when it dropped to $36

I think Coinbase's commission may have convinced him not to sell too soon. This is another bad thing about payment for order flow, and why I don't think I would mind if brokers went back to a $5 commission per trade or something like that. Sure, maybe the worse execution of PFOF ends up coming out to about the same as a commission would, but how much money are people losing by trading a lot instead of holding? Probably quite a lot!

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the problem with commission per trade is it makes it really hard for small accounts.

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Nanis23 posted...

In the last few days I was making a excel sheet, trying to figure out whether I actually gained or lost money in my whole adventure in the stock market.
It wasn't a simple "I put $50k into Robinhood and now it's $52k so I gained $2k" because I have 3 different accounts and need to take into consideration stuff like currency converation, the time I transferred stocks from my bank account to a new broker and so on

The end result was something I was afraid of. To know that I actually lost money in the stock market
Since I bought my first stock in July 2019...I lost $1400
The true culprit is the dollar tanking. As it results in a $4410 loss. Otherwise, I would have been $3000 in the green
So..yay >_>

I am debating what I should do. I am clearly not good at this. A fucking year and a half and this is my result? what a disgrace. Novice traders that only created their account a few months ago already made a thousands dollars profit and I can't even have a single digit profit
I am spending so much time in this. In Whatsapp, Telegram groups, Internet forums (like this stock topic), WSB and so on. All of this for what?
Not to mention the emotional impact this has on me

And yet...I know the feeling of making tons of money on the stock market. I did it. It felt good. I want to feel it again and I want to make money again. I know it has the potential and I need it if I ever want to buy myself a apartment someday.
A $40k income in a year when a decent apartment here costs $500k (and I am not even halfway there) because Israel sucks and we have a real estate bubble for years now that the government doesn't give a shit it and the prices keeps climbing even despite fucking COVID

I don't fucking know what to do

Are you trying to pay in full for the apartment? What about getting a mortgage? You have more than enough for a down payment (by US standards, I don't know what the rules are in Israel).

As for investing, yeah, you aren't a very good trader. I know it's hard psychologically because it involves risk, but you could try investing - meaning holding stocks for extended periods of time. Maybe think about it this way - if your money is not invested in stocks or real estate or something then it's invested in fiat currency. And as you've seen, investing in USD is pretty bad. Based on what you've been saying recently about only being willing to risk small amounts of money in stocks and that only for short periods of time, I think the reality may be that you have been very heavily invested in USD (or shekels, not sure if your brokerage is storing the money in USD).

It's critical not to beat yourself up over "breaking even." Like if you had made $1,420 more so that you were $10 in the green would it make a real difference? In the grand scheme of things, really it doesn't. Investing in a long term thing, and it's asking too much to expect to make money immediately. There is also a real risk that you won't even make money in the long term, but that risk is why investing is on average profitable.

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I will also say, I've been seeing an ad from Etoro which strikes me as particularly misleading in that it all but implies that the way to make money trading crypto is to trade a lot. They have a feature where you can copy another person's trades so you can trade a lot even without paying attention to the market yourself. The commercial features a sloth (the animal) copying an active trader who looks to be researching, discussing, and trading crypto frequently, and getting the same returns as him. But the reality (if this were real) is that the sloth would have gotten an amazing return, probably better than from the copying, by simply buying and holding BTC and ETH.

I haven't seen commercials from Robinhood, but I know they have been known for promoting things like margin, options, and frequent trading to novices which probably don't really help their customers' returns on average but are goldmines for brokers.

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Most everything I have is a long term hold, but for kicks I bought a single share of Viomi (VIOT) because it was up bigger than anything about 30 minutes after market open yesterday. I paid $13.29 and now its at $18.12, so up 36%.

Obviously this isnt a great strategy due to a single pump and dump wiping out gains but I may do this from time to time with stocks I dont mind holding if things go south.

I also bought some Ethereum Classic and seeing nice gains. I need to add some Ethereum too. Right now I have 16,000+ TRX i was all in on Tron a few years back and an initial investment of $1,700 was worth a bit over $10,000 at the height of a pump and dump. I couldve pulled the trigger but sat on it, made some bad moves and now my TRX was worth $900 last I checked. Figured I might as well hold the TRX but I really wish I had just put my $1,700 towards 5 Ethereum.

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GameStonk posted...

@Sunroof did you wind up buying BTC when it was ~$37k the other week like I told you to?

I bought $5k BTC and $5k ETH many weeks ago. Just the initial purchase, I never bought more because its really just only gone up.

Also I know I've said this before but I really recommend the people that aren't happy with their current results learn about selling options and the wheel. If you find a stock you are comfortable with that has decent IV you can make decent money. You won't see 100% returns in a week or anything but its a lot more consistent overall.

This is a free course that goes over a lot of option stuff and is really good to learn about https://www.tastytrade.com/learn

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i've just been fiending for knowledge about stocks and crypto both so i'll definitely check that out, thanks Cole

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Inversing people who are wrong a lot can be a good strategy too. Peter Schiff saved me a bunch of money on AU - I somehow made money on this thing by getting out on 2/12 and 2/16 - just in time!

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I suggest, earnestly, simply following the consensus recommendations on here. I'm going to roughly estimate that our most widely recommended plays throughout the year (the specific airlines, cruises, gambling, and tech stocks plus cryptos) have yielded a 50-100% return thus far if you measure from when most were screaming to buy. It sounds stupid and simple, but it works.

We really should make a spreadsheet of the most commonly held assets of the regulars as a guide.

Things have taken a turn for the worst in one my investigations at work yesterday. I wont be on here a whole lot, especially during the hours when the market is open, but someone should make definitely make a spreadsheet for quick and easy viewing. I like that idea.