Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 335: Pins and Needles

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Suprak the Stud posted...

Haha I have been right on everything so far though! Mostly it is me just going "those are just the early votes" and then the late votes come in and it swings Trump.

Notice I haven't said anything bad about Michigan or Wisconsin yet! Those still look good for Biden so far.

But yes I might be straight up Eeyore tonight and I apologize for that. I swear I'm mostly just looking at the numbers though.

Yeah, but you could try not replying to every single person that wants to try and have hope. >_>

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Unsurprisingly the west coast is declared for Biden.

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Yeah I'm actually starting to get very worried for Trump right now.

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Most of the unreported AZ countries have reported for Trump, but Biden is still leading regardless due to how small so many of those counties are. Apache is the only one that hasn't reported, but it went hard for Clinton in 2016.

These people liked McCain, my dudes.

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i took a nap again so missed the last two-two-and-a-half-hours

can i get a tl;dr? florida was sending us towards hell but are there signs in any of the other states?

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My prediction is that Biden will likely squeak this out, but it will be close.

The pollsters once again were not able to accurately predict this, which after what happened in 2016, I am very surprised at though maybe I shouldnt be.

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God why do we do it like this

xp1337 posted...

i took a nap again so mi ssed the last two-two-and-a-half-hours

can i get a tl;dr? florida was sending us towards hell but are there signs in any of the other states?

tl;dr definitely no sweep or call tonight, but anybody who says it's over for Biden can safely be ignored (figuratively not literally) . Lots of people showing they don't know the mail in situation on a state by state basis.

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charmander6000 posted...

I still think Biden has a chance at taking North Carolina, Wake and Guildford Counties are the major places with missing votes and they both have 60%+ for Biden.

Never mind, Wake County is now at 100%, NC will likely go to Trump

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A big batch of votes just got dropped in Dakalb County, Georgia. Trump's lead is down to 323k from 385k earlier. But a big batch is out of the way, so I'm feeling a little better about it actually.

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UltimaterializerX posted...

If Biden wins it will 100% be due to Philadelphia "finding" ballots.

Lmao werent you literally saying Biden would win PA easily as recently as an hour ago?

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Ohio is Trump's, my earlier optimism was misplaced. Despite the fact a good majority of the remaining votes came from blue counties, Biden has been losing ground every update.

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Right wing twitter changed their messaging a couple of hours ago about the election being stolen in PA so be ready for days of that btw.

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xp1337 posted...

i took a nap again so missed the last two-two-and-a-half-hours

can i get a tl;dr? florida was sending us towards hell but are there signs in any of the other states?

FL's fucked (ofc)
NC almost definitely Trump+Tillis (but Cooper kept the governorship at least)
GA probably Trump, Loeffler+Warnock go to the Special runoff
AZ looking good for Biden

Other stuff I don't have a great sense of

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UshiromiyaEva posted...

tl;dr definitely no sweep or call tonight, but anybody who says it's over for Biden can safely be ignored (figuratively not literally) . Lots of people showing they don't know the mail in situation on a state by state basis.

"cool"

Ugh. Thanks. In the few minutes I've been up again I'm seeing that the old blue wall trio is following the Trump campaign script of "show early Trump lead; pretend counting all the votes is illegal to stop the count", AZ looks hopeful, and NC is still a battle. Everywhere else went Trump probably. That about right for some more detail?

edit: oh maybe nc not a battle anymore

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Trump not getting Arizona is significant in that he pretty much needs Pennsylvania now or bust.

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Wayne County, Michigan:

2016: Clinton +37
2020 (so far): Biden +13

I know it'll close a lot.......I wonder how much. Feeling very nervous about Pennsylvania.

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Yeah, so many doomers right now. The red mirage is looking to be real. I still think Biden eeks this out provided any insane efforts to stop mail-in ballots from being counted are squashed, but this is definitely closer than I imagined. And I was one of those people who called Trump winning 2016. I feel okay right now.

Knew this wouldn't be a one day thing.

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guffguy89 posted...

Trump not getting Arizona is significant in that he pretty much needs Pennsylvania now or bust.

He needs to get something beyond Pennsylvania as well.

Wisconsin scares me.

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StartTheMachine posted...

Yeah, so many doomers right now. The red mirage is looking to be real. I still think Biden eeks this out provided any insane efforts to stop mail-in ballots from being counted are squashed, but this is definitely closer than I imagined. And I was one of those people who called Trump winning 2016. I feel okay right now.

Knew this wouldn't be a one day thing.

I know I'm all doomer here, but my mind has this 60% for Trump right now.

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Again, if Biden gets Arizona he doesn't even need Pennsylvania. He needs WI + MI + either NE2 or ME2.

There SEP. There's my one optimistic post for the night. I think that balances everything out!

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I think it's 50/50.

Trump's betting odds went down to -240 from that insane -600 earlier.

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Is there a breakdown of the Maine and Nebraska congressional districts?

I think Biden is winning Nebraska-2 while Trump has Maine-2

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Oh, a correction on NC: there was an error earlier with the votes which, when fixed, netted Biden 30k. I had assumed it was fixed for the NYT needle, but apparently not:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323834142228914180

So maybe NC is only probably Trump and not almost definitely Trump

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A little frustrating that major pollsters were all agreeing that it was going to come down the the PA mail ins, and now everyone is saying that they were all morons because....its coming down the the PA mail ins.

People just see what they wanna see, I guess. They see the 89 to 10 on 538, and then completely ignore 2 straight weeks of Silver articles saying "Bruh, plz, don't just read the title".

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Basically, its close as fuck.

But that is still depressing.

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Cal Cunningham losing is fucking pissing me off.

You stupid moron.

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KamikazePotato posted...

Yeah but at least it's a big deficit to come back from. Bigger than the other early vote leads Biden had.

https://twitter.com/mindyfinn/status/1323832965600862213

For the record, if all the Dem votes go to Biden, all the GOP votes go to Trump, and the Independents split down the middle, Biden wins PA based on the current count

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arizona looking like it may end like Ohio soon.


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Iowa coming back to Trump really quickly at the moment.

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Iowa still blue with 69% (nice) of votes counted. I wonder if it'll hold.

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UltimaterializerX posted...

It was -775 at one point.

I'm fucking irritated at the MAGA idiots celebrating early. It's like they jinxed it honestly.


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Wanglicious posted...

arizona looking like it may end like Ohio soon.

Arizona's numbers haven't budged in like 2 hours.

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Man if Covid hadn't happened though Trump would 100% be re-elected.

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Iowa will likely flip soon

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Wanglicious posted...

arizona looking like it may end like Ohio soon.

Where on earth are you getting your numbers? <_<

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ExThaNemesis posted...

I'm fucking irritated at the MAGA idiots celebrating early. It's like they jinxed it honestly.

They've been celebrating for roughly a week at the_donald spin off board.

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I think he meant Iowa, not Arizona.

Did Fox really just call Arizona?

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StartTheMachine posted...

Man if Covid hadn't happened though Trump would 100% be re-elected.

Pretty much, up until a few months ago I would say Trump was the favourite to win.

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Was Arizona just called for Biden?

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The primary district that hasn't reported was hard Clinton.

Pretty safe to call Arizona.

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Yeah Fox did actually call Arizona for Biden. At least according to Vaush's stream, which is what I'm watching.

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Without covid, Trump absolutely cremates Biden. That's why liberals have been so excited about it.

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UshiromiyaEva posted...

A little frustrating that major pollsters were all agreeing that it was going to come down the the PA mail ins, and now everyone is saying that they were all morons because....its coming down the the PA mail ins.

People just see what they wanna see, I guess. They see the 89 to 10 on 538, and then completely ignore 2 straight weeks of Silver articles saying "Bruh, plz, don't just read the title".

I feel like this post just begs for a @Metal_DK response.

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Yep, they did:

https://twitter.com/WardDPatrick/status/1323842773087330305

Thank god

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