Board 8 > Stock Topic 6

(+) Yeah! (+)

In LK news, the chairman resigned......from his other company, Car, Inc. (not to be confused with CAR stock, which is Avis).

TLRD is having its annual shareholder meeting on June 26. Unfortunately, I think I bought my shares too late to be able to vote. I would vote for ousting the board and bringing back George Zimmer.

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barreldragon88 posted...

So XSPA did a 1-3 reverse split and I know nothing about splits. I'm supposed to be getting a notification from the company's transfer agent, but I haven't received anything and not sure if it's coming in the form of an email. So once the transfer is over, I will be able to do whatever with the shares that I have?

It doesn't really change anything for you. It just means that 3 shares will now be 1 share, at 3x the price. They're probably doing it because they think investors get scared at seeing very low stock prices.

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Praise be THE CLOUD

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Wow what a rout. We went past -1,700 points there.

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So I bought in C and SAVE today. Went down a decent amount after I got in. Im hoping today is an emotional sell off day and we bounce back tomorrow.

I still cant buy acvt

Consliracy

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greengravy294 posted...

I still cant buy acvt

Consliracy

Have you tried AVCT?

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Was this the right or wrong move:

I sold a lot of my positions this morning that are long term holds that I've already profited on from buying in March/April, probably 60% of my portfolio.

They've all gone down by some amount (Spy, Dis, GM, Dow, Nke) or have floated around the same value (Mro). Anticipating a big red day, was this an okay move? Should I buy back in before 4pm now that these stocks mostly dipped, or just wait until Friday/next week? I have no clue how long we should expect red for

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Closed at -1,861. #4 all time.

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I guess I should be thankful that I only went down 1% today huh.

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Menji posted...

Have you tried AVCT?

yeah lol maybe etrade just doesnt let you trade that late on that security

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Today was a cruel reminder for how ruthless the stock market can be
Only have $15k invested so the damage is not severe but that still sucked

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i have an expiring put on nkla for tomorrow

its slightly otm (need a 4% decrease) so, yeah, i dont know

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https://twitter.com/crystalkimmm/status/1271153336562188294


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would there be even any interest in a discord group for this lol

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Shadow Dino posted...

https://twitter.com/crystalkimmm/status/1271153336562188294

The person in the photo is the founder of TLRD who was ousted in 2013. Wonder if it's a sign.

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MajinZidane posted...

Was this the right or wrong move:

I sold a lot of my positions this morning that are long term holds that I've already profited on from buying in March/April, probably 60% of my portfolio.

They've all gone down by some amount (Spy, Dis, GM, Dow, Nke) or have floated around the same value (Mro). Anticipating a big red day, was this an okay move? Should I buy back in before 4pm now that these stocks mostly dipped, or just wait until Friday/next week? I have no clue how long we should expect red for

You made the right move for sure. Take your profits and run. I think we're headed for a bearish market and I'm all for following trends, so get out while you're up.

And AVCT up big time in the after hours. Tomorrow is my redemption.

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@StartTheMachine

Appreciate the feedback. I'm going to be watching closely to try and figure out when to buy back in. I did end up being right; everything continued to dip after I posted that and I got out at the right time. Whether or not I get back in at the right time is another story!

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After-hours numbers are showing I recovered more than 60% of today's losses. Not sure how trustworthy those numbers are though. Either way, feeling good about a rally tomorrow.

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Tomorrow is going to be a clusterfuck.

Godspeed

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I bought most of my positions low knowing the markets would eventually fluctuate.

Not going to panic or try to predict anything, just going to wait it out.

I bought mine a few hours too early, expecting a midday correction. Even if tomorrow is a good day, I reckon Ill be down still. Certainly with AAL at $18.87.

This is amazing. Hertz asked the bankruptcy court today for permission to sell up to 264 million shares of its own stock on the market to raise money to pay creditors. If they'll able to raise enough money from this they might be able to cancel the bankruptcy after all.

Basically - if enough people BELIEVE in a bankrupt company, they can save it from bankruptcy. And if it doesn't go bankrupt, it should have value after the pandemic situation improves. I hope the court approves this request - it's set for hearing tomorrow afternoon. Then we'll be able to see what will happen to the share price when a couple hundred million shares hit the market (not all at once as that would almost certainly drive the price into the ground).

I will be so fascinated with what happens if the court allows this - and I don't see why they wouldn't. This is good for the creditors, who might be able to be repaid in full if it works. This could be the first big company saved by crowdfunding.

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So basically, with this plan, within some range, the HIGHER the stock price is, the better value it will be. If the price is too low Hertz won't be able to raise enough money to escape bankruptcy and all the value will be lost when the shares are canceled in the bankruptcy case. If the price is high enough for Hertz to escape bankruptcy, suddenly there is value in the shares again!

So, if the market collectively believes, everyone wins. If not enough people believe, then people who invest their money will lose it. I think I am going to pick up a couple hundred shares tomorrow ahead of this hearing. It's too interesting not to play.

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Oh gee, HTZ already up 65% in pre-market. I guess that's a good sign? I guess the market already figured this stuff out. I should probably research what the price needs to be for HTZ to escape bankruptcy.

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Well doesnt look like my 57p on Nikola prints.

So long 250 dollars, it was a nice ride.

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Man I wish I bought at 355pm yesterday. All these yummy gains would be delicious. Now Im barely breaking even with Citi. I have a feeling Monday will be green too. Im holding.

Looking good today - on track to make up all of my losses from yesterday. I think I am going to buy 100 shares of HTZ as a speculative bet they can escape bankruptcy with this share offering. Would buy more but am all tapped out of cash for now after yesterday's purchases and I don't want to sell stock yet.

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greengravy294 posted...

Well doesnt look like my 57p on Nikola prints.

So long 250 dollars, it was a nice ride.

You can make money selling the option before it expires

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Oh man, Im actually up on C and SAVE as of pre-market right now. Any good news I experience is often negated, so now Im wondering if the stocks will go down after open / on Monday.

Beautiful. 120% of yesterday's losses made up at the open.

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Made a quick $228 off of C and SAVE. Im hoping AAL rebounds to $20 next week.

Options are still magical to me.

It still doesn't make logical sense how I just traded my $33 DAL put that expires today for a $32 DAL put that expires in a week and I also got $15

Repeat that 32 more times and someone would end up with literally nothing and I would end up with $445


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I love CAR. This stock has shown me a gain of 10% like 80% of days I've had it. I might have to reward them with some business with a one-way car rental to return to California after the pandemic is over instead of flying.

Hertz has been floating between $3 and $3.30 or so during this first hour, a full 50% higher than the close yesterday. Volume is strong, at over 100 million shares already. I think volume is very important to judge whether the market is able to take 264 million newly issued shares released onto the market in a span of say, a week.

TLRD is struggling - it should be up more than 4% today after it ended up slightly in the red yesterday after the good news after close on Wednesday. I get that the market was crashing hard yesterday so TLRD couldn't really ride the good news upward, but it should be doing so today.

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masterplum posted...

Options are still magical to me.

It still doesn't make logical sense how I just traded my $33 DAL put that expires today for a $32 DAL put that expires in a week and I also got $15

Repeat that 32 more times and someone would end up with literally nothing and I would end up with $445

That's not weird. if DAL were frozen from now until next week, the $33 put would be worth $100 more than the $32 put. You only got $15 extra, because the market thinks there's a good chance DAL will rise above $32 in the next week.

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red sox 777 posted...

That's not weird. if DAL were frozen from now until next week, the $33 put would be worth $100 more than the $32 put. You only got $15 extra, because the market thinks there's a good chance DAL will rise above $32 in the next week.

Right, so I traded my liability for something worth $100 more for $15. I sold these options.

I'm up $115 on the transaction effectively

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Everything looks red again today so far

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masterplum posted...

Right, so I traded my liability for something worth $100 more for $15. I sold these options.

I'm up $115 on the transaction effectively

Oh I think I was confused. Hmm. Yeah I don't get it.

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AVCT came so close to meeting my point of entry price this morning and has dipped again. :(

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red sox 777 posted...

Oh I think I was confused. Hmm. Yeah I don't get it.

I mean I know mathematically the answer is time decay. I sold something with volatility so it has a volatility premium.

But it still feels like magic

On that note I am checking the market way too much today for a portfolio that is designed around trying to just eat volatility. I should just log out till Wednesday


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IDK. I think I learned something about this in college but that was like 10 years ago. On a purely intuitive basis, I suspect this is similar to the effect that causes TVIX to steadily lose money, and why it's down 99.99999% or something in 10 years. They are constantly rolling over their option positions to the next time period, and eating losses in so doing.

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red sox 777 posted...

IDK. I think I learned something about this in college but that was like 10 years ago. On a purely intuitive basis, I suspect this is similar to the effect that causes TVIX to steadily lose money, and why it's down 99.99999% or something in 10 years. They are constantly rolling over their option positions to the next time period, and eating losses in so doing.

Yeah. It's like inverse that

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And speaking of TVIX, it's barely down today. Well, it opened at -20% then rocketed up to +15% and is now down 1%. That makes me nervous because it should be down a lot more with the market up so much. Monday TVIX and the market both rose and then the market crashed the next 3 days. Well, whatever. I'm not repeating my mistake of selling travel stocks too early and hoping for a dip to buy back in that never came.

If Monday is a big red day, so be it.

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https://twitter.com/TESLAcharts/status/1271205620482478081

Fun with Hertz

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Some back of the envelope calculations with Hertz. Please take with a huge grain of salt. There are approximately 150 million shares now and Hertz is proposing adding another 264 million or so. Call it a 40 to 60 ratio for simplicity.

Pre-Covid, HTZ was trading at $20, which gives us a market cap of approximately $3 billion. Call this the value of Hertz after recovery from coronavirus with no risk of bankruptcy. Supposing they are able to sell the 264 million shares at $3, that would raise around $800 million. Let's say that they use $300 million to pay off imminent debts to stay afloat, and cancel the bankruptcy. Now the total equity should be $3.5 billion, meaning the undiluted share price would be about $23. But it's been diluted at this point, we multiply by 0.4 and get.....a little over $9.

It gets better. If the shares are worth $9 the company will be selling them for a lot more than $3 - suppose the market reacts immediately to good news and they sell them for $9 - then what happens? The above analysis is the same except that now the company is bringing in around $2.4 billion instead of $800 million, so we add the extra $1.6 billion to the equity and reach $5.1 billion, or an undiluted share price of $34 or a diluted share price of $13.6.

But of course, that's not all! If the shares are worth $13.6, why should the company only receive $9 for them? It turns out that in this model there is a breakeven point where the amount the company pays for the stock is equal to the diluted share price. We have the equation:

Diluted Share Price = $7.2 + 0.6 * Diluted Share Price, where $7.2 represents the value of an existing share based on the $3 billion market cap, less $300 million to pay immediate creditors, after the dilution but without considering the additional cash on the company's books. This equation when solved yields..... Diluted Share Price = $18.

Please take this with a grain of salt. This analysis is dependent on the company being able to raise more than $4 billion through share sales. Also, I pulled the 300 million to take care of immediately due debts out of thin air - I don't know how much HTZ needs to escape bankruptcy. But I think the basic idea is that if the court will allow this plan, Hertz should either spike massively or go to zero, depending on whether it's able to sell its shares. It should be hard for it to stay where it is now.

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Yesterday was an 1800 point drop.
Today was a 900 point drop since open.

Idk what to expect on Monday.

Also Im not touching HTZ only because the bankruptcy possibility turns me off. I would not be surprised if it explodes up.

The Hertz hearing in bankruptcy court is starting in 14 minutes. I'm watching on Zoom lol.

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Afternoon looks to make up some lost ground, but not enough to make up yesterday's big losses.

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This is lame. They muted the audio on Zoom. That's not really a public hearing if I can't hear anything!

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