Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1357

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SolidDBZ
05/06/20 9:45:05 PM
#251:


Just checked my second chance bracket, looks great, then I scroll down and I see a 97% toward the end... Sigh, I blame it on the scrolling wheel.

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#252
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MechanicalWall
05/06/20 9:47:54 PM
#253:


Here's my take on Witcher's performance that has fuck all to do with SFF. There's three scenarios I find plausible

A) New Vegas got hit with the same 'Bethesda bad' stick that Fallout 4 and Skyrim got hit with, and God of War's number on it wasn't as good as we thought. I can't imagine it got hit THAT hard because New Vegas is put on a pedestal by the 'Bethesda bad' people, but I can buy it still hurting from the blowback on the brand.

B) There was speculation that the massive success of the Switch may help Nintendo across the board; maybe that was true and Mario Galaxy 2 is better than it was in 2015. I waver on this one a bit because that would make Stardew Valley REALLY good relative to all the other indies, but it's possible.

C) Rally spillover from Reddit is artificially inflating Witcher's number, because Witcher will be THE game to benefit from any Reddit spillover because that website will sacrifice a newborn infant on the altar of Geraldo.

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Rollthebones2
05/06/20 9:49:07 PM
#254:


UltimaterializerX posted...
You also have absolutely no idea how much I love the Warcraft 3 Reforged metacritic user score. It vindicated nearly 20 years of hatred.

Except the metacritic score for that was based on Blizzard not properly giving care to remake a game that so many people loved because it was great.

That's not what vindication means. No one now thinks "oh yeah Warcraft 3 is bad because reforged sucks, Ulti was right all along".

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Sharinnegan
05/06/20 9:50:12 PM
#255:


yeah..the metacritic on reforged is bad BECAUSE the original is so highly regarded. in a way that actually goes 100% against your belief.

also there were a TON of controversies with that game that went way beyond the game just being a bad remake. like Blizzard restricting access to the old warcraft 3 to people who had that version (they just replaced it with reforged automatically in an update), banning mods, it was just a huge cluster****
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SolidDBZ
05/06/20 9:58:37 PM
#256:


Sharinnegan posted...
yeah..the metacritic on reforged is bad BECAUSE the original is so highly regarded. in a way that actually goes 100% against your belief.

also there were a TON of controversies with that game that went way beyond the game just being a bad remake. like Blizzard restricting access to the old warcraft 3 to people who had that version (they just replaced it with reforged automatically in an update), banning mods, it was just a huge cluster****

The fact that it release without a ladder makes it deserve a 0. Ridiculous.

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ShortReplies
05/06/20 10:02:13 PM
#257:


MechanicalWall posted...
Here's my take on Witcher's performance that has fuck all to do with SFF. There's three scenarios I find plausible

A) New Vegas got hit with the same 'Bethesda bad' stick that Fallout 4 and Skyrim got hit with, and God of War's number on it wasn't as good as we thought. I can't imagine it got hit THAT hard because New Vegas is put on a pedestal by the 'Bethesda bad' people, but I can buy it still hurting from the blowback on the brand.

B) There was speculation that the massive success of the Switch may help Nintendo across the board; maybe that was true and Mario Galaxy 2 is better than it was in 2015. I waver on this one a bit because that would make Stardew Valley REALLY good relative to all the other indies, but it's possible.

C) Rally spillover from Reddit is artificially inflating Witcher's number, because Witcher will be THE game to benefit from any Reddit spillover because that website will sacrifice a newborn infant on the altar of Geraldo.
Is this C point true, because i think its just a meme at this point, i have never seen any proof for it except over-exaggerated over-emotional theories.
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Team Rocket Elite
05/06/20 10:04:05 PM
#258:


That list reminds me that I bought Knights in the Nightmare a long time ago. I never got around to playing it and probably never will at this point. I guess it might have been for the best.
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Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Contest!
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Sharinnegan
05/06/20 10:06:44 PM
#259:


the reddit thing is overblown, but it is true that Witcher 3 is one of those "everyone loves it" games. as a result, when all else looks neutral, it is indeed more likely to benefit from spillover than the opponent.

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#260
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Rollthebones2
05/06/20 10:11:05 PM
#261:


UltimaterializerX posted...
You guys have known me for ages. Do you really think I'm taking that score as anything but me being right all along?

You know, I can respect that level of commitment.

Also, I initially read the 'Dissidia games' as the 'Disgaea games' and was preparing to nerd rage. I'm glad I re-read that because Dissidia was one of the greater disappointments in my life.

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Bendezu
05/06/20 10:12:49 PM
#262:


I knew God of War was weaker than Galaxy 2

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LeonhartFour
05/06/20 10:14:02 PM
#263:


tgs2 posted...
Vanilla KH2 was just as dumb as KH3 in terms of perception upon release. I am suspecting everyone is meaning KH2FM when talking about 2.


Vanilla KH2 is still fantastic
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LeonhartFour
05/06/20 10:25:42 PM
#264:


5 minute X-Stats (2 hours late):

Division 5

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt 50.00%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 39.40%
God of War 33.82%
Fallout: New Vegas 30.26%
Stardew Valley 28.30%
Dark Souls III 27.86%
Mass Effect 3 21.60%
Nioh 17.28%
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty 17.01%
Dishonored 16.75%
Destiny 16.32%
Assassins Creed Odyssey 15.93%
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth 15.02%
The Stanley Parable 12.47%
The Talos Principle 10.20%
Return of the Obra Dinn 10.05%

Division 6

Persona 5 50.00%
Portal 2 47.69%
Red Dead Redemption 2 44.37%
Animal Crossing: New Leaf 37.62%
Kingdom Hearts III 35.90%
Tomb Raider 33.11%
Sonic Mania 32.11%
Assassins Creed IV: Black Flag 28.94%
Sid Meiers Civilization V 25.21%
Street Fighter V 25.19%
Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA 23.93%
Disco Elysium 22.93%
Super Meat Boy 22.58%
Heavy Rain 21.71%
Dying Light 16.51%
Slay the Spire 14.02%
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LeonhartFour
05/06/20 10:31:04 PM
#265:


More X-Stats:

Division 3

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 50.00%
Super Mario Odyssey 44.06%
Marvels Spider-Man 36.39%
The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds 35.94%
Minecraft 30.82%
Bayonetta 26.24%
Devil May Cry 5 25.28%
Shovel Knight 23.96%
Octopath Traveler 23.78%
Undertale 22.22%
Dead Space 2 21.88%
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze 21.54%
Dragons Dogma 17.06%
Tekken 7 17.02%
Dota 2 14.97%
Mortal Kombat 11 12.36%

Division 4

Xenoblade Chronicles 50.00%
Persona 4 Golden 49.79%
Red Dead Redemption 48.96%
Grand Theft Auto V 48.72%
Fire Emblem: Three Houses 40.36%
Cuphead 38.73%
Ori and the Blind Forest 30.48%
Dragon Age: Inquisition 29.32%
South Park: The Stick of Truth 26.91%
Overwatch 26.68%
XCOM 2 24.57%
Death Stranding 23.53%
FTL: Faster Than Light 22.14%
Splatoon 2 21.57%
Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective 20.69%
Baba Is You 20.20%
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#266
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DoctorJimmy133
05/06/20 10:38:17 PM
#267:


Dead Space 2 hanging with that crowd looks really weird.

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MetalmindStats
05/06/20 10:47:19 PM
#268:


tgs2 posted...
Vanilla KH2 was just as dumb as KH3 in terms of perception upon release. I am suspecting everyone is meaning KH2FM when talking about 2.
Um, did you see either of the 2006 contests? Make no mistake, KH2 was no case of a game that took time to find its footing and fanbase, at least here on GameFAQs.

MechanicalWall posted...
I waver on this one a bit because that would make Stardew Valley REALLY good relative to all the other indies, but it's possible.
Don't forget that Stardew significantly benefited from its match being on the same day as the second largest single rally of this contest so far, so it's not quite as strong as its result against Galaxy 2 makes it look. Anyways, I do agree with your points A and B at the very least, and I'd also add that New Vegas was likely overrated in the 2015 stats to begin with.

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You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!
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Wildspark
05/06/20 10:53:30 PM
#269:


UltimaterializerX posted...
Kingdom Hearts 2 was the last good game in that series. Everything since has proved Tetsuya Nomura should have been fired ages ago.
Birth By Sleep was decent and the only real problem with 3 is that its too easy

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Hbthebattle
05/06/20 10:54:57 PM
#270:


Minecraft strongest indie confirmed, I guess
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Patience.
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LeonhartFour
05/06/20 11:24:40 PM
#271:


Trend charts:

Time | Smash | Odyssey | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 56.50% | 43.50% | 492 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 56.26% | 43.74% | 3313 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 58.15% | 41.85% | 8347 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 52.06% | 47.94% | 3598 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 54.77% | 45.23% | 5547 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 56.08% | 43.92% | 5966 | (17:00-24:00)

Smash is still really bad in Europe, even by Nintendo standards.

Time | P4G | Xenoblade | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 44.49% | 55.51% | 490 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 48.41% | 51.59% | 3311 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 49.20% | 50.80% | 8347 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 48.81% | 51.19% | 3600 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 50.30% | 49.70% | 5555 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 51.51% | 48.49% | 5966 | (17:00-24:00)

Persona 4 wins the second half of the match outright but it isn't enough.
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pjbasis
05/06/20 11:46:44 PM
#272:


KH2 was only hated by kh1 purists like me.

Kh3 was only defended by hardcore fans

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LeonhartFour
05/06/20 11:52:44 PM
#273:


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transience
05/06/20 11:53:29 PM
#274:


Leon give me RDR1 = RDR2

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_SecretSquirrel
05/07/20 12:02:22 AM
#275:


Does anyone have the match pic numbers for Skyrim and Pokemon, by chance?

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LeonhartFour
05/07/20 12:04:53 AM
#276:


transience posted...
Leon give me RDR1 = RDR2


Persona 5 50.00%
Portal 2 41.96%
Xenoblade Chronicles - 39.87%
Persona 4 Golden - 39.70%
Red Dead Redemption - 39.04%
Red Dead Redemption 2 39.04%
Grand Theft Auto V - 38.85%
Animal Crossing: New Leaf 33.10%
Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 32.18%
Sonic Mania 32.11%
Kingdom Hearts III 31.59%
Cuphead - 30.88%
Tomb Raider 29.13%
Assassins Creed IV: Black Flag 28.94%
Sid Meiers Civilization V 25.21%
Ori and the Blind Forest - 24.30%
Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA 23.93%
Dragon Age: Inquisition - 23.38%
Super Meat Boy 22.58%
Street Fighter V 22.16%
Heavy Rain 21.71%
South Park: The Stick of Truth - 21.46%
Overwatch - 21.27%
Disco Elysium 20.17%
XCOM 2 - 19.59%
Death Stranding - 18.76%
FTL: Faster Than Light - 17.65%
Splatoon 2 - 17.20%
Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective - 16.50%
Baba Is You - 16.11%
Dying Light 14.53%
Slay the Spire 14.02%
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Team Rocket Elite
05/07/20 12:06:52 AM
#277:


_SecretSquirrel posted...
Does anyone have the match pic numbers for Skyrim and Pokemon, by chance?


92151
43298
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Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Contest!
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SuperNiceDog
05/07/20 12:10:08 AM
#278:


Is P5 screwed? It looks like it...

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LeonhartFour
05/07/20 12:10:53 AM
#279:


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MechanicalWall
05/07/20 12:13:33 AM
#280:


LeonhartFour posted...
Animal Crossing: New Leaf 33.10%
Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 32.18%
Sonic Mania 32.11%
Kingdom Hearts III 31.59%
Yah I'm gonna say RDR1 > RDR2 for the sake of my sanity

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LeonhartFour
05/07/20 12:14:20 AM
#281:


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transcience
05/07/20 12:20:02 AM
#282:


Id take it to lose to every game there

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LeonhartFour
05/07/20 12:22:45 AM
#283:


seriously though I've thought RDR1 > RDR2 from the start and that probably cements it for me
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_SecretSquirrel
05/07/20 12:24:37 AM
#284:


LeonhartFour posted...
seriously though I've thought RDR1 > RDR2 from the start and that probably cements it for me
My first impression was that RDR2 could be stronger, but then I put in serious thought about how RDR2 got roasted over its efforts to be too realistic with those overly long animations, and I would bet on the original being far more respected.

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_SJimW_
05/07/20 12:28:48 AM
#285:


pjbasis posted...
KH2 was only hated by kh1 purists like me.

Kh3 was only defended by hardcore fans

I'm not a hardcore fan and KH3 is in the running for my favorite in the series

but I realize I'm in the minority there

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Sharinnegan
05/07/20 12:43:28 AM
#286:


RDR1 and RDR2 are probably about even. dont see much reason for them not to be. even GTAV ended up being about the same. these Rockstar games are likely all the same here.

Fire emblem looks awful because Xenoblade SFF'd it a bit. and KH looks awful because...it's just that weak. not that hard to believe.
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MechanicalWall
05/07/20 12:48:25 AM
#287:



They've updated their stickied thread

Who knows how much it's helping but it looks like they're in it for the long haul

Also the P4G thread in r/vita has like 200 upvotes now vs the 70-ish it had when the match ended lol

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Sharinnegan
05/07/20 1:29:05 AM
#288:


this match is currently on pace to be the most voted of the contest.
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LusterSoldier
05/07/20 3:08:08 AM
#289:


Super Smash Bros. Ultimate vs. Super Mario Odyssey
Registered Vote Result:
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 5054 (56.62%)
Super Mario Odyssey - 3872 (43.38%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 4867 (54.57%)
Super Mario Odyssey - 4052 (45.43%)

Persona 4 Golden vs. Xenoblade Chronicles
Registered Vote Result:
Persona 4 Golden - 4405 (49.33%)
Xenoblade Chronicles - 4524 (50.67%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Persona 4 Golden - 4524 (50.71%)
Xenoblade Chronicles - 4397 (49.29%)

Smash Ultimate had the advantage with registered users, but only by about 2%.

Xenoblade did have a registered user advantage, but it was less than a 1.5% difference. Even though there were rallies for P4G, the reason why P4G didn't do better than it should have with anonymous users is because Xenoblade also seemed to have a successful rally of its own. Both games appeared to have rallies, and they kind of canceled each other out. I estimated there were between 800 and 1200 rallied votes between both games combined, based on the percentage of registered users in these matches.

P4G also barely won the overall raw vote (by 8 votes), but it was the registered user bonus that prevented the rallies from being successful.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub
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ctesjbuvf
05/07/20 3:12:10 AM
#290:


ZeldaTPLink posted...
@ctesjbuvf how did the Last Man Standing contest end? I think I lost track of it.

Agent M won when the other three supported GTAV to round 4.

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CaptainOfCrush
05/07/20 3:21:15 AM
#291:




Did someone say "listen to The Show"?

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KamikazePotato
05/07/20 3:22:37 AM
#292:


Where does Xenoblade fall on the 'least predicted results' list?

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#293
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ctesjbuvf
05/07/20 3:28:55 AM
#294:


Just below Cloud's victory in 2003

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#295
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KamikazePotato
05/07/20 3:37:45 AM
#296:


UltimaterializerX posted...
Its like the first post doesnt even exist.

Oh, right.

Let's take that list and remove everything that was almost entirely rally-driven such as Draven. Then I'll also remove everything that was a result from Round 5 and onward. We get:

  1. Squirtle (R3) - 2.33% vs Cloud and Leon in 2013
  2. Charizard (R4) - 3.17% vs Bowser in 2010
  3. Mewtwo (R3) - 3.60% vs Cloud, Squall, Sora in 2008
  4. Red (R3) - 3.95% vs Vivi and Squall in 2013
  5. Vivi (R2) - 4.61% vs Mario and Ganondorf in 2013
  6. Xenoblade Chronicles (R4) - 6.29% vs Persona 4 Golden in 2020
Actually a little farther down the list than I expected even considering the stipulations. Multi-way polls fucked us up bad. If you remove the multi-entrants polls remaining on the list (all of which were involved in LFF, mid-level rallies, or both at the same time), then the only traditional GameFAQsy 1 v 1 match from Round 4 or earlier that was more unpredictable than Xenoblade>P4 was 2010 Charizard. Hopefully Xenoblade proves itself to be less of a fraud in future contests than the Zard did!

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#297
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_SecretSquirrel
05/07/20 3:58:05 AM
#298:


Not going to lie, I was rooting for Xenoblade entirely because I knew having a correct pick was going to be one of the biggest 1v1 upsets we've ever had minus rallies. Easily the most elusive match i've ever gotten right.

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ctesjbuvf
05/07/20 4:02:31 AM
#299:


So ignoring matches with games releasing on the same day flipping results, Xenoblade takes that!

Of course, there're already lots of asterisks there.

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Safer_777
05/07/20 4:10:53 AM
#300:


Woke up, checked the results.

Withcer 3 a lock for finals now for sure. Also P5 strong?

And what happened yesterday? I guess P4 had a rally somewhere?

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