Current Events > CNN trying to say Biden is leading in the polls...LOL

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MFBKBass5
12/19/19 3:05:23 PM
#1:


Yeahhhhh....I don't believe that. Honestly, I don't trust any polls anymore. And I don't think we should be relying on polls to see who we like or support for the democratic candidate.

2020 will be interesting. I don't see Biden winning the nomination at all. I think it'll either be Bernie, or Buttigieg. But us young people just have to VOTE. Biden is old and senile. Bernie is old, but is 100% correct on calling out all the corruption from money in Washington.


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#2
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MFBKBass5
12/19/19 3:11:40 PM
#3:


Spooking posted...
Biden is leading in every poll:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html


Well, Clinton was leading in every poll back in 2016, and we believed it like fools. Look at how that turned out :)

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solosnake
12/19/19 3:13:26 PM
#4:


I really dont get how the democratic party truly believes nominating Biden would be a good idea.


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MFBKBass5
12/19/19 3:14:41 PM
#5:


solosnake posted...
I really dont get how the democratic party truly believes nominating Biden would be a good idea.


Honestly, I'm not convinced they are.

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vigorm0rtis
12/19/19 3:17:18 PM
#6:


Biden's leading because he's safe to seniors and doesn't base all his rhetoric on what he sees in social media.

Not saying he's my choice, but that's how it is. Not everyone lives in an online bubble.

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MFBKBass5
12/19/19 3:21:30 PM
#7:


vigorm0rtis posted...
Biden's leading because he's safe to seniors and doesn't base all his rhetoric on what he sees in social media.

Not saying he's my choice, but that's how it is. Not everyone lives in an online bubble.


Biden is literally senile. Watch the videos from his rallies the last few months. Biden can't even keep track of what state he's in...his mind is gone. He's got good intentions, but honestly I'm seeing early signs of dementia.

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solosnake
12/19/19 3:23:08 PM
#9:


MFBKBass5 posted...
Biden is literally senile. Watch the videos from his rallies the last few months. Biden can't even keep track of what state he's in...his mind is gone. He's got good intentions, but honestly I'm seeing early signs of dementia.
They REEEEEEEAAAAAAAALLLLLLY need to put a cap on age limit for presidential candidates. Theres 0 reason for someone close to 80 years old to be in that position

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MFBKBass5
12/19/19 3:25:01 PM
#10:


solosnake posted...
They REEEEEEEAAAAAAAALLLLLLY need to put a cap on age limit for presidential candidates. Theres 0 reason for someone close to 80 years old to be in that position


Ehhhh I disagree. Plenty of people who are in their 80s are perfectly fine mentally.

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Serious Cat
12/19/19 3:25:14 PM
#11:


MFBKBass5 posted...
Well, Clinton was leading in every poll back in 2016, and we believed it like fools. Look at how that turned out :)
She got 3 million more popular votes than Trump. There was nothing inaccurate about the polls

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solosnake
12/19/19 3:26:27 PM
#12:


MFBKBass5 posted...
Ehhhh I disagree. Plenty of people who are in their 80s are perfectly fine mentally.
Its not just their mental capacity. They are deciding the fate for people who will be alive long after they are gone.

I think 70 should be a hard limit

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MFBKBass5
12/19/19 3:34:20 PM
#13:


Serious Cat posted...
She got 3 million more popular votes than Trump. There was nothing inaccurate about the polls


There were tons of inaccurate polls. What are you talking about? She wasn't projected to lose a lot of the swing states.

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creativerealms
12/19/19 3:35:55 PM
#14:


He is.

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COVxy
12/19/19 3:40:37 PM
#15:


MFBKBass5 posted...
Well, Clinton was leading in every poll back in 2016, and we believed it like fools. Look at how that turned out :)

...and she won the popular vote.

Polls were remarkably accurate, just that Trump got lucky within the margins in the states that matter.

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MFBKBass5
12/19/19 3:42:06 PM
#16:


COVxy posted...
...and she won the popular vote.

Polls were remarkably accurate, just that Trump got lucky within the margins in the states that matter.


Again, she lost plenty of states where she was projected to win in the polls.

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creativerealms
12/19/19 3:44:08 PM
#17:


MFBKBass5 posted...
Again, she lost plenty of states where she was projected to win in the polls.
Polls not 100 percent accurate. Nothing is. They are estimations based on the available data. There are always factors that can't be accounted for.

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COVxy
12/19/19 3:44:17 PM
#18:


MFBKBass5 posted...
Again, she lost plenty of states where she was projected to win in the polls.

Again, statistics is about probability and error. Trump got lucky within the margins.

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MFBKBass5
12/19/19 3:47:46 PM
#19:


COVxy posted...
Again, statistics is about probability and error. Trump got lucky within the margins.


He was way outside the margin of error though. What are you talking about? The polls from 2016 were blatantly wrong. Which is why his win was a MAJOR shock to everyone. If he was within the margin of error, there wouldn't have been hundreds of articles claiming that Hillary had the election in bags for weeks before the polls opened.

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COVxy
12/19/19 3:53:01 PM
#20:


MFBKBass5 posted...
He was way outside the margin of error though. What are you talking about? The polls from 2016 were blatantly wrong. Which is why his win was a MAJOR shock to everyone. If he was within the margin of error, there wouldn't have been hundreds of articles claiming that Hillary had the election in bags for weeks before the polls opened.

Naw, just like the majority of things just after the 2016 election, this is narrative, not truth.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/

Most people only examined the probabilistic simulations run by 538, which, as it turns out, are probabilistic. Don't worry, scientists suck at probabilistic reasoning too, so there's no expectation that anyone else should be good at it.

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ElatedVenusaur
12/19/19 3:55:35 PM
#21:


COVxy posted...
...and she won the popular vote.

Polls were remarkably accurate, just that Trump got lucky within the margins in the states that matter.
General election polls are fairly accurate, but this is a primary. Here're some examples:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html
It's much harder for pollsters to get a read on who is going to show up.
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COVxy
12/19/19 4:40:12 PM
#22:


ElatedVenusaur posted...
General election polls are fairly accurate, but this is a primary. Here're some examples:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html
It's much harder for pollsters to get a read on who is going to show up.

That's a different argument (which I havent evaluated). But the "2016 polls were inaccurate therefore don't trust polls" argument is pretty false (on both the antecedent, and even if you assume the antecedent, the consequent doesn't follow).

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LightHawKnight
12/19/19 4:42:57 PM
#23:


MFBKBass5 posted...
Biden is literally senile. Watch the videos from his rallies the last few months. Biden can't even keep track of what state he's in...his mind is gone. He's got good intentions, but honestly I'm seeing early signs of dementia.

Trump is senile as well, so what?

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Tropicalwood
12/19/19 4:50:26 PM
#24:


Serious Cat posted...
She got 3 million more popular votes than Trump. There was nothing inaccurate about the polls
Considering the three million in surplus came from the same damn state with rampant corruption, the polls were anything closs to accurate.

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hockeybub89
12/19/19 4:52:36 PM
#25:


Polls aren't really a thing you are supposed to "believe" in. They just take the temperature of a room.

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Arcanine2009
12/20/19 7:05:32 PM
#26:


Spooking posted...
Biden is leading in every poll:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
It sucks because everyone other than Biden has to put in at least 2x the effort. He's the status quo so it's an easy ride for him. He's guaranteed to be in the primaries and the most likely to win for name recognition with the Obama's and being a centralist alone.

Biden even more recognized positively after the ikraine thing

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Ethosian
12/20/19 7:07:35 PM
#27:


Tropicalwood posted...
Considering the three million in surplus came from the same damn state with rampant corruption, the polls were anything closs to accurate.
Lmao, so salty the impeached president supporters are!
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Omnislasher
12/20/19 7:10:48 PM
#28:




Biden's poll numbers are hot air. They poll landlines. They consider 'likely voters' ie. if you've voted before and/or how often. Bernie's campaign will rely on the young and previously non-voting demographic.
The only thing that can upset Bernie is the media.
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darkphoenix181
12/20/19 7:12:08 PM
#29:


vigorm0rtis posted...
Biden's leading because he's safe to seniors

I thought the republicans was the party of the out of touch boomers.

I know my Grandpa was democrat all the way, but he was 96 when died.
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Omnislasher
12/20/19 7:13:50 PM
#30:


darkphoenix181 posted...
I thought the republicans was the party of the out of touch boomers.

...no, the democrats have plenty of them, too
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Anteaterking
12/20/19 7:18:56 PM
#31:


ElatedVenusaur posted...
General election polls are fairly accurate, but this is a primary. Here're some examples:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html
It's much harder for pollsters to get a read on who is going to show up.

Primary polling is hard but national "primary" polls eliminate a lot of those issues.
National primary polls in the 2016 Republican primaries tracked pretty well with overall vote share during the primaries.
Democratic national polls in 2016 as well.

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HairyThotter
12/20/19 7:20:37 PM
#32:


MFBKBass5 posted...


2020 will be interesting

2020, no matter who wins, will be one of the biggest shit shows we've seen yet. People on both sides will be dissatisfied with the outcome.

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ElatedVenusaur
12/20/19 7:23:42 PM
#33:


Omnislasher posted...
...no, the democrats have plenty of them, too
It's why Bernie is investing so heavily in ground-game in the early states: his voters are the people who don't always show up. Essentially, if the pollsters are correct about what the primary electorate will look like, we're going to have a pretty messy opening leading into Super Tuesday, with Biden doing well in South Carolina but very possibly losing Iowa(to Buttigieg or Bernie), New Hampshire(to Warren/Bernie/Buttigieg), and/or Nevada(to Bernie or Warren). If he consistently places at least 2nd or a close 3rd and performs strongly in South Carolina, he'll probably be in good shape, as he's likely to clean up in southern primaries with their primarily older, more moderate black voters and Bernie won't win California by enough to mitigate it.
If he takes a beating early though, his electability argument will go down in flames, and his standing will deteriorate. If Bernie or Warren is the big beneficiary, you'll probably see the donor class and Obama endorse Biden(or Buttigieg, if he's doing better) in an attempt to "save the party".
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Cheater87
12/20/19 7:24:03 PM
#34:


CNN and MSNBC are pro Bien.

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Broseph_Stalin
12/20/19 7:28:35 PM
#35:


Horseshoe theory remains undefeated.
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butthole666
12/20/19 7:31:59 PM
#36:


Wasnt there an actual headline about sanders losing 3rd to another candidate because he had risen to 1st

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Delirious_Beard
12/20/19 7:37:13 PM
#37:


the complete generational divide when it comes to candidates like biden and hillary is just fascinating

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Cheater87
12/20/19 7:54:09 PM
#38:


butthole666 posted...
Wasnt there an actual headline about sanders losing 3rd to another candidate because he had risen to 1st

Yup.

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#39
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MFBKBass5
12/20/19 9:19:18 PM
#40:


Omnislasher posted...
Biden's poll numbers are hot air. They poll landlines. They consider 'likely voters' ie. if you've voted before and/or how often. Bernie's campaign will rely on the young and previously non-voting demographic.
The only thing that can upset Bernie is the media.


Yep. Media is anti Bernie because hes anti major corporation. Look at all the times hes pissed off debate moderators for calling out the networks live on debate stages hahaha


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MaverickXeo
12/20/19 10:01:31 PM
#41:


LightHawKnight posted...
Trump is senile as well, so what?

Trump isn't senile... he's just not smart.

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Guide
12/20/19 10:04:27 PM
#42:


Tropicalwood posted...
Considering the three million in surplus came from the same damn state with rampant corruption, the polls were anything closs to accurate.

Tell me how this "rampant corruption" would adjust the polls. Never mind that a surplus doesn't even make sense for the purposes of the popular vote.

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#43
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bevan306
12/20/19 10:10:42 PM
#44:


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