Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1319

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Not_Wylvane
12/10/18 3:31:15 PM
#403:


I like Mario more and am rooting for him for this one (especially because I want to see Cloud/Mario again), but I would definitely appreciate a Samus win after her contest history and showing that she can stand up and beat freaking Mario. Either result is cool with me.
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The_Ctes
12/10/18 3:33:10 PM
#404:


red sox 777 posted...
Safer_777 posted...
Come on people. Zelda barely beat Snake and barely beat Mario. Do you really think that Snake equals Mario? No. There is a bandwagon around here somehwere.


Yes? Snake has had stronger results than Mario every year since 2008.


Did you not see the whole gang Metal Gear gang looking bad?

Mario wouldn't have to 67-68% Squall for him to be stronger than Zelda.
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LeonhartFour
12/10/18 3:34:24 PM
#405:


The_Ctes posted...
Did you not see the whole gang Metal Gear gang looking bad?


Snake has one very big reason not to look bad that literally none of them do so this isn't a compelling argument by itself.
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KamikazePotato
12/10/18 3:34:36 PM
#406:


All this discussion is doing is reminding me that adjusting the stats for Division 5-8 is going to be a massive headache.
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CaptainOfCrush
12/10/18 3:36:57 PM
#407:


Snake may look better than he did against Samus, but he's not getting 50%+ against Mario. Would anyone here really bet against Mario in that match?
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Nanis23
12/10/18 3:37:07 PM
#408:


Xeybozn posted...
The concept of "bandwagons" is a fraud.

No seriously, whenever a character overperforms in one match and continues to do so in future matches, maybe we just underestimated them in the first place? Do we really need a special factor to explain anything about that?

Explain 2013 Mewtwo and Geralt this contest
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wololo
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LeonhartFour
12/10/18 3:38:42 PM
#409:


CaptainOfCrush posted...
Snake may look better than he did against Samus, but he's not getting 50%+ against Mario. Would anyone here really bet against Mario in that match?


This year? Probably not. Using Tifa/Seph suggests that Mario isn't that far behind Samus indirectly. Not the best metric to use, probably, but it's the best we've got.
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ShatteredElysium
12/10/18 3:39:13 PM
#410:


The_Ctes posted...
red sox 777 posted...
Safer_777 posted...
Come on people. Zelda barely beat Snake and barely beat Mario. Do you really think that Snake equals Mario? No. There is a bandwagon around here somehwere.


Yes? Snake has had stronger results than Mario every year since 2008.


Did you not see the whole gang Metal Gear gang looking bad?

Mario wouldn't have to 67-68% Squall for him to be stronger than Zelda.


Well Zelda put up 63.3 on him. So if you are saying she beat him via bandwagon, then he has to beat Squall by a decent chunk more.

It's not like Zelda has gradually put in more and more impressive results. She was ridiculous out of the gate and put immediate response was Squall must suck now but the rest of her results suggest she just really is that strong
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KamikazePotato
12/10/18 3:41:04 PM
#411:


I don't take Snake over Mario, but it's very possible that he's not far behind. Win or lose, I don't think Mario is equal to Samus in strength - she's clearly above him based on every result we've seen so far that *isn't* them going head-to-head.
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ShatteredElysium
12/10/18 3:42:49 PM
#412:


Lost in all this is that Mario is slowly clawing his way back
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red sox 777
12/10/18 3:44:12 PM
#413:


If you want to say that Zelda's "bandwagon" allowed her to resist SFF from Mario, I could go for that.

And probably wouldn't pick Snake over Mario this year after the Samus match. If she can SFF away his Smash support, Mario probably can too
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Nanis23
12/10/18 3:45:05 PM
#414:


Let's all ignore various other variables like SFF rSFF Smash release pics revenge votes etc etc
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wololo
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ninkendo
12/10/18 3:46:44 PM
#415:


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Nanis23
12/10/18 3:46:56 PM
#416:


red sox 777 posted...
If you want to say that Zelda's "bandwagon" allowed her to resist SFF from Mario, I could go for that.

Well yes?
Board 8 are not exactly the typical voters, so I can't reqlly give myself as an example, but to me looking at her performance made me want to vote for her over Mario because I believed she could make it
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wololo
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The_Ctes
12/10/18 3:50:25 PM
#417:


It's also possible that Zelda rSFFd Mario, being the name of the more popular Nintendo game. Or a combination of both.

I just have a really hard time seeing someone unexpected getting to the semis destroying NN'ers without getting a bit of a bandwagon. I saw at least half the board hoping she won that match because it's new and unexpected.
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_SecretSquirrel
12/10/18 4:15:49 PM
#418:


Oh shit, Samus leading by one vote again.
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iiaattgg
12/10/18 4:16:14 PM
#419:


ninkendo posted...
I put a hit out on Samus

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Haste_2
12/10/18 4:16:31 PM
#420:


Gaaaahhhh. Hang in there Samus!
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The Owner of FF9
12/10/18 4:21:29 PM
#421:


Holy shit
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Character Battle X
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Averia
12/10/18 4:21:32 PM
#422:


Will Mario steal another victory ?
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Ranticoot
12/10/18 4:21:45 PM
#423:


go the fuck away stinky plumber
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Safer_777
12/10/18 4:22:13 PM
#424:


FREAKING MARIO! Vote stuffing as per tradition of course.
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swirIdude
12/10/18 4:26:48 PM
#425:


Third straight 1 vote lead for Samus - that's gotta be a record.
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Yuri_LowelI
12/10/18 4:27:31 PM
#426:


Has there been a closer wire to wire match in history?

This could be it

Once Europe goes to bed soon samus should pull ahead.
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INTERWEBUSER
12/10/18 4:27:59 PM
#427:


Just put in a vote for Mario.

Other M and Fed Force...barf.
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Seanchan
12/10/18 4:28:09 PM
#428:


swirIdude posted...
Third straight 1 vote lead for Samus - that's gotta be a record.


Actually it was Samus then Mario then Samus again.
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Haste_2
12/10/18 4:29:30 PM
#429:


What Seanchan said. >_>
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ShatteredElysium
12/10/18 4:33:48 PM
#430:


Yuri_LowelI posted...
Has there been a closer wire to wire match in history?

This could be it

Once Europe goes to bed soon samus should pull ahead.


SOTC > MGS 2 was closer. None involving characters though
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EpsteinBarr
12/10/18 5:05:43 PM
#431:


And vote stuffing comes to save the day for Mario. Is there a bigger fraud in this competition than the fat plumber?
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Qwaar
12/10/18 5:05:48 PM
#432:


Why is this topic so barren considering how close the match is?
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Nanis23
12/10/18 5:07:00 PM
#433:


Qwaar posted...
Why is this topic so barren considering how close the match is?

Because this shit has gotten old
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wololo
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FinalFantasyVll
12/10/18 5:08:01 PM
#434:


EpsteinBarr posted...
And vote stuffing comes to save the day for Mario. Is there a bigger fraud in this competition than the fat plumber?


MGS and Blizzard as a whole...

But as one single character..

FUCK NO.

I don't believe Mario has ever had a legit close match, ever. Pretty confident they cheated in 04 and 05 as well till it became obvious it wouldn't change anything.
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ShatteredElysium
12/10/18 5:08:03 PM
#435:


Why is the automatic assumption Mario stuffing when Samus is the one who had vote fluctuations between 17 and 50-60 in her comeback?

Like I know Mario has previous but that was a hell of a long time ago
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XIII_rocks
12/10/18 5:10:21 PM
#436:


This is taking years off my life
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tennisboy213
12/10/18 5:13:42 PM
#437:


you could be finally getting your down to the last update match
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The Owner of FF9
12/10/18 5:13:51 PM
#438:


Qwaar posted...
Why is this topic so barren considering how close the match is?

Board 8ers are FRAUDS.
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Character Battle X
Current Score: 368/528 GG all
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XIII_rocks
12/10/18 5:16:19 PM
#439:


tennisboy213 posted...
you could be finally getting your down to the last update match


Talk about corrupt a wish
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_SecretSquirrel
12/10/18 5:16:22 PM
#440:


The Owner of FF9 posted...
Qwaar posted...
Why is this topic so barren considering how close the match is?

Board 8ers are FRAUDS.

Everyone is just glancing at the poll every once in a while, while devoting the rest of their focus to Smash.
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KamikazePotato
12/10/18 5:17:57 PM
#441:


Qwaar posted...
Why is this topic so barren considering how close the match is?

What is there to talk about unless someone pulls away? If it's still this close with 30 minutes left to go, things will be a different story.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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guffguy89
12/10/18 5:18:30 PM
#442:


_SecretSquirrel posted...
The Owner of FF9 posted...
Qwaar posted...
Why is this topic so barren considering how close the match is?

Board 8ers are FRAUDS.

Everyone is just glancing at the poll every once in a while, while devoting the rest of their focus to Smash.


Honestly, there have been so many close matches like this now that it's starting to lose the appeal they had early on.
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Xeybozn
12/10/18 5:18:34 PM
#443:


ShatteredElysium posted...
Why is the automatic assumption Mario stuffing when Samus is the one who had vote fluctuations between 17 and 50-60 in her comeback?

We like Samus.
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TheOneAboveAll
12/10/18 5:23:25 PM
#444:


I've been mostly away from my computer the past few days (been checking updates on my phone) but holy heck this has been an incredible battle.
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OFool
12/10/18 5:27:13 PM
#445:


Well I did my usual check on NordVPN and I have to say there has been more stuffing this match than I have ever seen.

Id say 50% of the servers worldwide have been used to vote in this contest.

If anyone on here uses NordVPN check for yourself.
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trogita
12/10/18 5:30:49 PM
#446:


Wouldn't that cause elevated vote totals?
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Dfy556
12/10/18 5:36:29 PM
#447:


30 vote difference between winning and losing for Samus. Wow
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OFool
12/10/18 5:39:41 PM
#448:


trogita posted...
Wouldn't that cause elevated vote totals?


It should do, yeah, but only by about 500. Enough to give a history but not enough to be a massive spike
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OFool
12/10/18 5:40:55 PM
#449:


A gigantic spike for Samus then!
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XIII_rocks
12/10/18 5:43:17 PM
#450:


That needs to be a one-off. A few more of those and this is over.
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_SecretSquirrel
12/10/18 5:44:28 PM
#451:


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Averia
12/10/18 5:45:53 PM
#452:


OFool posted...
Well I did my usual check on NordVPN and I have to say there has been more stuffing this match than I have ever seen.

Id say 50% of the servers worldwide have been used to vote in this contest.

If anyone on here uses NordVPN check for yourself.


This match might be the most fraudulent of the entire contest !
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